View Full Version : Kentucky Derby 2016 Contenders / Value Line / Analysis

05-06-2016, 04:05 PM
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/20.jpg Danzig Candy (5-1)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/15.jpg Outwork (7-1)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/11.jpg Exaggerator (11-1)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/2.jpg Suddenbreakingnews (13-1)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/4.jpg Mo Tom (15-1)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/13.jpg Nyquist (17-1)

Another big racing day, and another whack line from yours truly. This seems to be the trend lately. Remember when I had American Pharoah at something like 9/2 or 5/1 in the Travers? Well, that one actually worked out, but I digress.

I know I'm going to get nothing but grief for having two speedballs on top of my line, and even I know there isn't much I can say to defend either. But I threw the numbers into my cauldron and this is what came out. And seeing as I am still in the black over the past five years or so from using my cauldron method on big race days, why should I change anything now? http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/smilies/47.gif

So I'm going to go with it.

Danzig Candy - Hey, at least he has a Dosage Index under 4, right? http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/smilies/47.gif His numbers have gotten better as the distances have increased (albeit it's a tiny sample), except of course for his last race, in the slop, at Santa Anita. I'm willing to excuse that race, even though his breeding suggests he should be able to handle an off track fairly well. He's coming out of post 20 with Mike Smith, and he'll no doubt use his speed to clear most of the field early and settle into a favorable position. The rail is going to be barren by the time they reach the first turn, as many of the deep closers are sitting in five of the first six gate stalls. So the speed horses, with Danzig Candy being the speed of the speed in my opinion, should have little difficulty dropping over and saving ground around the first bend - hopefully on the lead.

Outwork - Hey, at least he's tied for third best TimeFormUS (https://timeformus.com/home) speed figure at 113, which he earned last time out in the muddy Wood Memorial where he battled tooth and nail during an eventful stretch run to get the win. The cauldron has a thing for early speed types, what can I tell you? I'm sure I'll have some money on this one, as I like to spread a bit in the big races and this one will be a big price...but I don't harbor any illusions that this horse has a serious chance of winning. The cauldron wants what the cauldron wants and I'm not going to argue with it just yet.

Exaggerator - Now, this is a horse i can sink my teeth into. This is the horse I think has the best chance of winning the Kentucky Derby. The cauldron? Not as impressed I see. And with an 11-1 value price, I doubt I'll be betting on him because I doubt I'll see 11-1 on the tote. Then again, he's faced Nyquist three times already and lost every battle to the Derby favorite, but at least he's been getting closer with each chance. His breeding says the Derby is his kind of race, but again, his expected lack of double-digit odds will keep him off my win tickets. And you know what? I'm not as in love with him compared to when I first started typing this paragraph, so that ought to tell you something.

Suddenbreakingnews - The first closer to appear on my list, this horse has finished first or second in every one of his eight lifetime starts save one (the Rebel Stakes). Will he get enough pace to run at late? I think so. This seems like a pretty speedy field up front, and it won't be a surprise if things get out of control up front early (which would bode quite poorly for the two horses at the top of my contender list). This one should be a big price and will be worth a bet.

Mo Tom - The best closing number in the field according to TimeFormUS (https://timeformus.com/home), and his breeding suggests he'll relish the distance. He's gotten into some trip trouble lately, but still managed to finish well. Not sure how he stays out of trouble in a 20 horse field while trying to fly around them all turning for home, but if that happens (or he gets a Borelesque-type ride up the rail), I think this horse will make his presence felt late. And at 20-1 on the morning line, he's another one who will have my money.

Nyquist - Don't you just love it when I have the 3-1 morning line favorite for the Kentucky Derby listed at 17-1 on my value line? http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/smilies/47.gif Nyquist has a lot going for him. Undefeated in seven starts. A versatile horse who, even when he gets into trouble early (like he did in the BC Juvenile) and has to alter his running style a tad, he still manages to find a way to win. BUT, I don't relish betting any horse in the Derby at shortish odds, especially one who seems like he could end up near the front on what might be a hot pace, while possessing one of the lesser closing numbers in the field. I think I'm going to leave him off all my tickets. So there.

Good luck tomorrow!