DRF Tomlinson Distance Ratings

[Redboard]

PP -HORSE T. D. RATING
18-Majesto 366
7-Oscar Nominated 362
2-Suddenbreakingnews 359
3-Creator 359
19-Brody's Cause 332
12-Tom's Ready 322
9-Destin 309
1-Trojan Nation 304
6-My Man Sam 287
8-Lani 281
10-Whitmore 265
17-Mor Spirit 262
5-Gun Runner 259
22-Cherry Wine 252
14-Mohaymen 252
11-Exaggerator 245
15-Outwork 242
16-Shagaf 235
21-Laoban 225
20-Danzing Candy 224
4-Mo Tom 209
13-Nyquist 202

Here’s the field’s Tomlinson Distance Ratings sorted from best to worst. I stopped looking at these a long time ago. Has anyone ever had any success with them? Thought it was interesting that Nyquist is dead last. Anyone think that’s significant? By the way, California Chrome and American Pharoah were 293 & 296.

From drf.com:

Daily Racing Form has added the Tomlinson Distance Ratings to the career box above each horse's past performances. These ratings, based on a statistical analysis of the performance of other thoroughbreds with the same pedigree influences, may prove helpful in predicting a thoroughbreds ability to handle the distance of today's race.

The new ratings, that appears in parentheses after the abbreviation "Dst" in the career box, are similar to the Tomlinson wet-track and turf ratings which already appear in the box. Ratings range from 0 to 480, with a rating of around 320 considered average. A rating followed by an asterisk means the rating is based on a small data sample, usually because a sire or dam sire has had a limited number of runners.

Unlike the other Tomlinson ratings, the Distance Ratings are keyed to the distance of the race in which the horse is entered in today. Races fall into one of four categories: six furlongs or shorter; over six furlongs but less than a mile; a mile or over but less than a mile and a quarter; and a mile and a quarter and over. Each horse has a rating, revised quarterly, in each of the four distance categories and the one that appears today is determined by the distance of today's race.

These ratings might prove especially useful when handicapping younger horses with a limited number of starts at the distance in question.
Here are two examples of "question mark" situations where the ratings should provide considerable help.

•A field of eight maiden two year olds going five furlongs (5f), most making their racing debut. Which ones are bred for speed? Perhaps one has a pedigree that shouts, "I'm a speedball and sprinting is my game!". The distance ratings will help you determine each runner's probability of success.

•You're looking at a field of three-year-olds scheduled to go a mile and a quarter...perhaps the Kentucky Derby or the Travers Stakes. While several entrants have gone a mile and an eighth, none has ever crossed that imaginary barrier and raced at a longer distance. A look at the ratings might give you a clue as to which of today's contestants has the pedigree to get the mile and a quarter distance.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I thought we talked about you releasing the full order of finish at the Mile pole of the Derby.

Not the 8th race on Thursday. :faint:

But in all honesty, they do make sense from a breeding standpoint. Just another piece to add to the puzzle.

[Spiderman]

For distance pedigree indicator, I prefer the Dis and AWD lines in Brisnet.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

For distance pedigree indicator, I prefer the Dis and AWD lines in Brisnet.

AWD are somewhat useful here and there, but if you want pedigree information, especially distance pedigree information pertaining to the "classics", this is where you need to go.

http://chef-de-race.com/main_menu.htm

[Tom]

Refresh my memory - the demarcation line is 300?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Refresh my memory - the demarcation line is 300?

350

[arw629]

For distance pedigree indicator, I prefer the Dis and AWD lines in Brisnet.

Agree with Spiderman...it is a huge part of the way I handicap maiden races, young horses, and horses making surface switches ...great tool

[NorCalGreg]

AWD are somewhat useful here and there, but if you want pedigree information, especially distance pedigree information pertaining to the "classics", this is where you need to go.

http://chef-de-race.com/main_menu.htm

Hasn't all that Dosage mathematical mumbo-jumbo been proven essentially useless in all but possibly breeding?

Looking at Roman's 90's -ish website promoting his country's soccer team...he's also lost interest.

If I need to know anything in particular---my Bris Ultimate informs me in their comments, for example:

'Breeding suits distance" or "Outstanding turf sire"

It's fine if anyone needs more complete info than that....I'm not telling anyone how to handicap.

Just curious if Nyquist wins the Derby, will Tomlinson "redboard" his index as Dr Roman did--rendering his info useless?

[Spiderman]

Just curious if Nyquist wins the Derby, will Tomlinson "redboard" his index as Dr Roman did--rendering his info useless?[/QUOTE]

Unfortunately, Tomlinson passed a few years ago. He and I exchanged comments on another racing forum.

[Spiderman]

Just curious if Nyquist wins the Derby, will Tomlinson "redboard" his index as Dr Roman did--rendering his info useless?

Unfortunately, Tomlinson passed a few years ago. He and I exchanged comments on another racing forum.[/QUOTE]

PS - I know that you meant the business entity, Tomlinson, not the individual.

[Redboard]

Here’s the Bris Dis rating:

PP HORSE Dis
3-Creator 123
8-Lani 122
14-Mohaymen 119
16-Shagaf 117
15-Outwork 117
21-Laoban 116
2-Suddenbreakingnews 116
19-Brody's Cause 116
9-Destin 116
13-Nyquist 115
1-Trojan Nation 115
4-Mo Tom 114
5-Gun Runner 114
11-Exaggerator 113
10-Whitmore 113
18-Majesto 113
20-Danzing Candy 113
17-Mor Spirit 112
7-Oscar Nominated 110
12-Tom's Ready 110
6-My Man Sam 107
22-Cherry Wine 105

It looks like Nyquist fares a little better here. For god knows what reasoning. :bang:

From Brisnet.com:
The Distance Pedigree rating measures the overall quality and suitability of the horse's breeding for races run at today's distance.

HOW SHOULD I INTERPRET THE BRIS PEDIGREE RATINGS?
While the higher Pedigree Ratings are generally preferred, the key is to not simply look for the highest rated horse. Instead, value oriented handicappers are encouraged to compare the rating of a horse at today's distance (or surface) to his/her other pedigree ratings. Ask yourself if the relationship between the pedigree ratings of a horse suggest he/she will improve or decline at today's distance/surface.

In dirt races, look for those horses whose DIST Pedigree Rating is higher than his/her overall FAST dirt Pedigree Rating. These horses, based on the performances of other horses with similar breeding, are well suited to today's distance and often show substantial improvement when today's distance is considerably shorter or longer than his/her other races.

[Spiderman]

Redboard, thanks for taking the time for the posts. There are several contrasting ratings between Tomlinson figures and BRIS ratings: your note on Nyquist; Oscar Nominated from 2nd to 20th; Shagaf from bottom ten to top ten in BRIS; etc.

[Aerocraft67]

Sorted by difference between "Dist" and "Fast," then by "Dist"

Name...................#.....Fast....Dist...Diff
Creator................3.....116.....123.....7
Lani...................8.....115.....122.....7
Suddenbreakingnews.....2.....109.....116.....7
Destin.................9.....109.....116.....7
Brody's Cause..........19....109.....116.....7
Whitmore...............10....106.....113.....7
Mohaymen...............14....113.....119.....6
Trojan Nation..........1.....109.....115.....6
Exaggerator............11....113.....118.....5
Majesto................18....108.....113.....5
Oscar Nominated........7.....105.....110.....5
Outwork................15....113.....117.....4
Shagaf.................16....113.....117.....4
Laoban.................21....113.....116.....3
Nyquist................13....112.....115.....3
Mo Tom.................4.....111.....114.....3
Gun Runner.............5.....111.....114.....3
Mor Spirit.............17....109.....112.....3
Tom's Ready............12....108.....110.....2
Cherry Wine............22....104.....105.....1
Danzing Candy..........20....111.....111.....0
My Man Sam.............6.....107.....107.....0

[Aerocraft67]

Here's the field sorted by the scores in the link LDH provided. Hope I used the right value for the sort.

PP.....HORSE..................PTS
8......LANI...................38
19.....BRODY'S CAUSE*.........38
7......OSCAR NOMINATED........30
9......DESTIN.................28
2......SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS.....26
3......CREATOR................26
14.....MOHAYMEN*..............26
12.....TOM'S READY............24
16.....SHAGAF*................24
22.....CHERRY WINE............24
10.....WHITMORE...............22
11.....EXAGGERATOR*...........22
1......TROJAN NATION..........20
6......MY MAN SAM.............20
5......GUN RUNNER.............18
17.....MOR SPIRIT*............18
4......MO TOM*................14
20.....DANZING CANDY..........12
18.....MAJESTO................10
21.....LAOBAN..................8
15.....OUTWORK*................6
13.....NYQUIST*................4

[cj]

Should people really be giving proprietary information that is for sale away for free here without permission? I'll leave it to PA to decide, but seems like it might be going too far.

[Aerocraft67]

Should people really be giving proprietary information that is for sale away for free here without permission? I'll leave it to PA to decide, but seems like it might be going too far.

For what it's worth, I considered this. The link to the dosage source is cited in the thread and available for anyone that wants to click on it for free, without so much as a registration (unlike, for instance, the free Timeform race of the day PPs that require registration to access). Is that site not a legitimate source for the data? I'm assuming it is but I could be wrong. The BRIS pps are available for free on the Pletcher racing site with no requirement other than clicking, for one. I don't know about the Tomlinson figs, but perhaps there's a free source for DRF PPs for this race as well? Do we still need permission to discuss data freely available? I'm also assuming the whole point of making Derby PPs data available free is to promote the paid product for other races, and discussion of the data for the big race is part of the promotion (even if it's ultimately a critique). Not so much for the sake of argument as for explanation that's its all well meant, at least for my part.

[cj]

For what it's worth, I considered this. The link to the dosage source is cited in the thread and available for anyone that wants to click on it for free, without so much as a registration (unlike, for instance, the free Timeform race of the day PPs that require registration to access). Is that site not a legitimate source for the data? I'm assuming it is but I could be wrong. The BRIS pps are available for free on the Pletcher racing site with no requirement other than clicking, for one. I don't know about the Tomlinson figs, but perhaps there's a free source for DRF PPs for this race as well? Do we still need permission to discuss data freely available? I'm also assuming the whole point of making Derby PPs data available free is to promote the paid product for other races, and discussion of the data for the big race is part of the promotion (even if it's ultimately a critique). Not so much for the sake of argument as for explanation that's its all well meant, at least for my part.

I was talking about the DRF and the BRIS info which comes from their PPs. If it is available freely than no problem.

[Aerocraft67]

I guess if you're looking for a reason to pick a 30-1 shot in Lani, the consensus of these distance pedigree figs for the horse give you one. The BRIS and dosage figures are correlated, although discrepancies crop up with longshots like Oscar Nominated and Tom's Ready, which the dosage likes better, and Majesto, which BRIS rates better. Actually, the discrepancies are correlated with odds—bigger discrepancies tend to occur with higher odds horses. One exception is the favorite, which fares better with BRIS, as Redboard pointed out. Although BRIS flags the Nyquist DIST with a confidence disclaimer.

Vet out the consensus on runners that can go the distance with a shot better than 30-1:

12-1 :19: Brody's cause
15-1 :9: Destin
10-1 :3: Creator
20-1 :2: Suddenbreakingnews
10-1 :14: Mohaymen

Followed by :16: Shagaf, :10: Whitmore, :11: Exaggerator

I've had my eye on :9: , :3: , and :14: . I could dutch all three to win for the same proposition as the favorite.