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View Full Version : Will Nyquist Go Off as the Favorite?


Flysofree
05-05-2016, 11:10 AM
I know he is 3-1 ML Favorite. If he is the betting favorite what price do you think he goes off?

Somehow I think he may not be the betting favorite but 2nd choice. Just a guess..

fiznow
05-05-2016, 06:54 PM
I know he is 3-1 ML Favorite. If he is the betting favorite what price do you think he goes off?

Somehow I think he may not be the betting favorite but 2nd choice. Just a guess..

I think he will be the favorite, between 2-1 and 3-1. What I don`'t think is that there will be so many horses higher than 10-1 like the morning lines say.

Lemon Drop Husker
05-05-2016, 06:58 PM
Nyquist 7/2
Exaggerator 6/1
Gun Runner 8/1
Mohaymen 8/1

That would be my prediction.

Flysofree
05-05-2016, 07:00 PM
I think he will be the favorite, between 2-1 and 3-1. What I don`'t think is that there will be so many horses higher than 10-1 like the morning lines say.

I thought the morning line odds looked strange also, with the wide gap between 3-1 and 10-1 horses..

Flysofree
05-05-2016, 07:02 PM
Nyquist 7/2
Exaggerator 6/1
Gun Runner 8/1
Mohaymen 8/1

That would be my prediction.

I could see this!

FrankieFigs
05-05-2016, 07:10 PM
I say he will go off as the fav. Too many folks will see the familiar connections and undefeated record and make him their top choice.

Lemon Drop Husker
05-05-2016, 07:13 PM
I could see this!

Reality is, you have 13 of the 20 horses at 10/1 to 20/1 on the ML.

I know people are laughing at the job Battaglia did, but it was almost impossible to put together a ML that would come anywhere close to "sticking" this year.

Nyquist deserves to be favorite. Outside of that? Put a line out there, let US sort it out.

Flysofree
05-05-2016, 07:16 PM
My Play is Gun Runner

Nutz and Boltz
05-05-2016, 09:05 PM
Love Mohaymen, the horse itself, but don't know if he can win it.

davew
05-06-2016, 01:58 AM
I woud be SHOCKED if Nyquist did not go off the favorite.

overthehill
05-06-2016, 03:27 AM
I will be shocked if Nyquist isnt the the favorite and Exaggerator isnt a clear second choice. after that I have no idea. I think there are 5-6 horses who could be the third choice. Maybe Gun Runner is the most likely of them.

mannyberrios
05-06-2016, 12:15 PM
Nyquist 7/2
Exaggerator 6/1
Gun Runner 8/1
Mohaymen 8/1

That would be my prediction.
I'll take Mohaymen

Secondbest
05-06-2016, 12:45 PM
I know he is 3-1 ML Favorite. If he is the betting favorite what price do you think he goes off?

Somehow I think he may not be the betting favorite but 2nd choice. Just a guess..
Will Nyquist go off the favorite?
Is ice cold?

Flysofree
05-06-2016, 02:03 PM
Will Nyquist go off the favorite?
Is ice cold?

I should have asked the question; How do undefeated horses coming into the Derby and running from an outside post position ?

upthecreek
05-06-2016, 02:53 PM
Nyquist--2/1
Exaggerator--5/1
Mohaymen--13/1
Danzing Candy--34/1

BettinBilly
05-06-2016, 03:40 PM
I just put the $10.00 to WIN max 3x odds bet on Nyquist via TVG Mobile for that special from noon to 1:00 PM today.

I think he'll go off at 2/1 and if he wins, TVG will pay out 6/1 on all the $10.00 bets that came in today via mobile during the special 1 hour mobile 3x win bet via mobile platform. I'm assuming there will be more WIN bets placed for that special on Nyquist than any of the others. Otherwise I'd not bet him to WIN. I'm obviously trying to beat him straight-up and via exotics, although he's in most of my exotics.

Secondbest
05-06-2016, 03:40 PM
I should have asked the question; How do undefeated horses coming into the Derby and running from an outside post position ?
I can't see him not being the favorite.

biggestal99
05-06-2016, 04:14 PM
I just put the $10.00 to WIN max 3x odds bet on Nyquist via TVG Mobile for that special from noon to 1:00 PM today.

.

I put my 10 on MoHaymen figure about 10-1 or so. 30-1 with triple odds.

can't beat that price.

Allan

Flysofree
05-06-2016, 04:27 PM
I can't see him not being the favorite.


So, are you saying that Undefeated horses coming into the Derby have been the favorite more often than not? Just looking for some stats on one factor, which may not be easily available to find.

raybo
05-06-2016, 05:20 PM
I think Nyquist will be the post time favorite at about 5/2, but IMO that is a significant underlay, with 19 other horses in the race. I really like Mohaymen at 10/1, but after seeing all the posts by people who also like him, maybe he goes off a bit lower. Even at 10/1 he might not be an overlay, but on a superfecta ticket that's close enough for me.

peteman
05-06-2016, 08:34 PM
I see about 5/2 also.Derby win place prices,since 2000.rounded to dollar.

2014 W 8 P 8
2013 W 13 P 39
2012 W 33 P 6
2011 W 44 P 9
2010 W 18 P 11
2009 W103 P 8
2008 W 7 P 11
2007 W 12 P 10
2006 W 14 P 28
2005 W103 P 70
2004 W 10 P 8
2003 W 28 P 6
2002 W 43 P 25
2001 W 23 P 47
2000 W 7 P 10

pondman
05-06-2016, 09:00 PM
This is one day of the year when the odds don't change much. Nyquist might take more money at around 5/2. Don't see a 2nd favor below 5-1.

horses4courses
05-06-2016, 10:12 PM
7 for 7 juvenile champion?
He may not be 8 for 8 by tomorrow evening,
but favorites are based on past performances.

The one certainty going into this race
is that Nyquist will race as the favorite.

Secondbest
05-06-2016, 11:03 PM
So, are you saying that Undefeated horses coming into the Derby have been the favorite more often than not? Just looking for some stats on one factor, which may not be easily available to find.
No. In this race against this field he's the chalk.the early wagering pus the DD payouts show that.Each yea it's different .

Flysofree
05-06-2016, 11:15 PM
What I am trying to find out is if "HISTORICALLY" undefeated horses enter the Derby as Favorite.

Secondbest
05-06-2016, 11:34 PM
What I am trying to find out is if "HISTORICALLY" undefeated horses enter the Derby as Favorite.
I have no idea

Lemon Drop Husker
05-07-2016, 12:44 AM
What I am trying to find out is if "HISTORICALLY" undefeated horses enter the Derby as Favorite.

Off the top of my head, I'm only recalling Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Gemologist, Barbaro (not the favorite), and Curlin (not favored) as being undefeated horses. Those are recent horses though.

I know there are more, but they all fared well outside of Gemologist.

burnsy
05-07-2016, 08:03 AM
Recently Verrazano and Gemologist entered the derby undefeated. Neither was the BC champ though. People backed both hard and both ran mediocre. This horse may have trouble with this distance, his breeding is questionable @ 10 furlongs. If he does get by today, he's just better than this crop right now. Being "undefeated" is great, but these horses can hit a wall once the distance gets deep and the gangs all here for this race.

DeltaLover
05-07-2016, 09:08 AM
Off the top of my head, I'm only recalling Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Gemologist, Barbaro (not the favorite), and Curlin (not favored) as being undefeated horses. Those are recent horses though.

I know there are more, but they all fared well outside of Gemologist.


Slew too...

Capper Al
05-09-2016, 08:47 PM
Triple Crown winners seem to come in streaks.