Top Horse Analytics: 05/07/2016 Kentucky Derby EARLY Picks/Results

[Augenj]

TOP HORSE ANALYTICS (v4.16.05.01a)

Race Cancellations (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/cancellations.html?SAP=TN)
Today's Scratches And Changes (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechanges.html?SAP=TN)
Exotic Wager Cost Calculator (http://www.winningponies.com/help/exotic-wager-calculator.html?SAP=TN)

Race Results
Full Charts (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/index.html?SAP=TN)
THA Race Results (http://www.vegassportscontrol.net/forum/40-race-results/)

Base Factor FLAGS
C Best Closer
E Best Earnings
F Best Finish
J Best Jockey
L Best Lead Pack
S Best Speed
T Best Trainer
W Best Workouts

05/07/16, CD, Race 12, 6.34 ET
1 1/4M [Dirt] 1.59.02 STAKES. Purse $2,000,000.
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 12-13-14) - Super Hi-5
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :8: (F)Lani [30-1] Take Y / Matsunaga Mikio JT
099.7116 :13: Nyquist [3-1] Gutierrez M / O'Neill Doug F. FE
096.7529 :5: Gun Runner [10-1] Geroux F / Asmussen Steven M.
096.1050 :15: Outwork [15-1] Velazquez J R / Pletcher Todd A. L
095.8567 11 Exaggerator [8-1] Desormeaux K J / Desormeaux J. Keith
095.7394 19 Brody's Cause [12-1] Saez L / Romans Dale L.
095.0832 14 Mohaymen [10-1] Alvarado J / McLaughlin Kiaran P. S
094.7175 3 Creator [10-1] Santana. Jr. R / Asmussen Steven M.
094.0615 2 Suddenbreakingnews [20-1] Quinonez L S / Von Hemel Donnie K. C
093.9753 9 Destin [15-1] Castellano J / Pletcher Todd A.
093.9432 17 Mor Spirit [12-1] Stevens G L / Baffert Bob
093.6235 20 Danzing Candy [15-1] Smith M E / Sise. Jr. Clifford W.
093.6193 10 Whitmore [20-1] Espinoza V / Moquett Ron
093.4855 16 Shagaf [20-1] Rosario J / Brown Chad C.
093.1391 7 Oscar Nominated [50-1] Leparoux J R / Maker Michael J.
093.0955 6 My Man Sam [20-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Brown Chad C.
092.4788 4 Mo Tom [20-1] Lanerie C J / Amoss Thomas M. W
091.5548 12 Tom's Ready [30-1] Hernandez. Jr. B J / Stewart Dallas
091.3030 18 Majesto [30-1] Jaramillo E / Delgado Gustavo
091.2628 1 Trojan Nation [50-1] Gryder A T / Gallagher Patrick
091.0742 22 Cherry Wine [30-1] Albarado R / Romans Dale L.
090.8468 21 Laoban(b-) [50-1] Velasquez C H / Guillot Eric J.

Yes, I'm laughing too. I think the computer needs some fine tuning. :D

[mannyberrios]

Maybe not

[CoxHub]

Here are some Derby Picks (http://www.coxhub.com/articles/several-with-big-chance-in-kentucky-derby-2016) and Derby Podcast (http://www.coxhub.com/articles/several-with-big-chance-in-kentucky-derby-2016) that you may find useful. Check it out!

[Alwaysonpoint36]

TOP HORSE ANALYTICS
Yes, I'm laughing too. I think the computer needs some fine tuning. :D

Gonna make it $20 straight super. That's a pool crusher

[Augenj]

Gonna make it $20 straight super. That's a pool crusher
You can retire after that one. :D

[VigorsTheGrey]

What 5 things does the program like about Lani? Of all horses... :confused:

[Augenj]

What 5 things does the program like about Lani? Of all horses... :confused:
That's a good question. There are 8 base factors that get combined to calculate horse ratings in a race. They get combined using various weights or biases determined by an analysis of races for this track (CD) over the last 2 years. I'd have to drill down pretty far to determine why this horse is on top. Next year's analysis of CD will produce different biases and the calculations will be different. This is all in the interest of creating algorithms that produce the highest win percent and ROI. One of the base factors is earnings. Is the average earnings per start higher than any other horse? Maybe this one factor tilted the final rating in Lani's favor. To me, this is just another race in a stream of hundreds that won't have much impact on next years analysis. Obviously, it's an amusing top pick. :)

[Augenj]

05/07/16, CD, Race 12, 6:34 ET
1 1/4M [Dirt] 1.59.02 STAKES. Purse $2,000,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Fast
100.0000 :8: (F)Lani [30-1] JT 9th
099.7116 :13: Nyquist [3-1 * ] FE 1st - 6.60 4.80 3.60
096.7529 :5: Gun Runner [10-1] 3rd - 6.00
096.1050 :15: Outwork [15-1] L
095.8567 11 Exaggerator [8-1] 2nd - 5.40 4.20
095.7394 19 Brody's Cause [12-1]
095.0832 14 Mohaymen [10-1] S 4th
094.7175 3 Creator [10-1]
094.0615 2 Suddenbreakingnews [20-1] C
093.9753 9 Destin [15-1]
093.9432 17 Mor Spirit [12-1]
093.6235 20 Danzing Candy [15-1]
093.6193 10 Whitmore [20-1]
093.4855 16 Shagaf [20-1]
093.1391 7 Oscar Nominated [50-1]
093.0955 6 My Man Sam [20-1]
092.4788 4 Mo Tom [20-1] W
091.5548 12 Tom's Ready [30-1]
091.3030 18 Majesto [30-1]
091.2628 1 Trojan Nation [50-1]
*Scratch* 22 Cherry Wine [30-1]
*Scratch* 21 Laoban(b-) [50-1]