Post Draw

[PowerUpPaynter]

Couple hours away... been quite today on the forum. The quite before the storm.

After the post draw I start putting together some tickets.

I like a bunch of $6 tickets like this 1 w 2,3 w 2,3,4,5

and $12 Supers 1 w, 2,3 w 2,3,4,5 w 2,3,4,5



But im also gonna take $2 exactas with horses like Gun Runner over 10 horses and same thing with maybe Danzing Candy or other horses I like over 10-1 on top. You can get a $900 exacta or more hit if i comes out


Probably wont be making any WIN bets just holding my futures tickets

[SecretAgentMan]

Announcing results of the pill pull right now...is the pill pull done in private? Who does it?



Its done live on NBS Sports channel

[jimnancy]

The draw is on the NBC sports network starting now

[VigorsTheGrey]

Www.courierjounal.com. hyphen between courier and journal

[minethatbird08]

10 left

[minethatbird08]

10 whitmore
5 gun runner
13 Nyquist

[minethatbird08]

1 Trojan nation
9 Destin
6 my man Sam
14 monhaymen
20 Danzig candy
19 Brody's Cause
8 Lani
2 Suddenbreakingnews
16 Shagaf
7 Oscar nominated
11 exaggerated
4 mo tom

[minethatbird08]

17 mor spirit
18 majesto
15 outwork

[minethatbird08]

3 creator

[minethatbird08]

12 toms ready

[yankeelpn]

#20 for DC means a fast pace IMO, will have to gun it to get position.

[minethatbird08]

Creator- 10-1
Gun runner 10-1
Destin 15-1
Whitmore 20-1
Exagerator 8-1
Nyquist 3-1

[barahona44]

A maiden getting the rail, not exactly a shock Trojan Nation is high on the M/L.

[minethatbird08]

Trojan nation and Oscar 50-1. Lots are 10-1 as co 3rd choice

[fiznow]

Crazy morning lines. All but Nyquist (3-1) are longshots. 2nd choice Exxagerator 8-1.

[barahona44]

Crazy morning lines. All but Nyquist (3-1) are longshots. 2nd choice Exxagerator 8-1.
I see high payoff exotics.

[SecretAgentMan]

Love Gun Runners post.

If Trojan Nation wins from the #1 post, well, all things are possible.

Mor Spirit coming out of post #17, no horse has ever won the derby from post 17, Point Given came out of post #17.

Brody's cause received a really bad bost #19.

Danzig Candy from the #20 post, should shoot out like a rocket & hope to get the lead. Nyquist should be right there from post #13 with DC.

[VigorsTheGrey]

It can take up to 5 minutes to load the gates....what is the gate load order?
Which posts wait the longest?

[minethatbird08]

Pletcher camp not happy being next to Lani, horse has been unpredictable

[SecretAgentMan]

Pletcher camp not happy being next to Lani, horse has been unpredictable



Yeah, heard that.

[minethatbird08]

It can take up to 5 minutes to load the gates....what is the gate load order?
Which posts wait the longest?

They load them in numerical order

[Tommy Tom]

After spending the last 2 weeks trying to determine who my key horse will be at good odds in my wagers I finally decided late last night to go with Brody's Cause ( my other top key horse considerations were My Man Sam, Lani and Destin) I am always looking for a key horse that will trigger some high exotic payoffs .

But just now seeing Post 19 and after coming across this earlier today I just do not know if I need to reconsider :(

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/u64720/Post%20Positions,%20Kentucky%20Derby%20(2013).pdf

[señorclipclop]

It can take up to 5 minutes to load the gates....what is the gate load order?
Which posts wait the longest?

I believe they go two at a time: 1-11, 2-12, 3-13, etc... 10-20.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Nyquist eyeballs Mohayman...Mohaymen eyeballs Outwork...Outwork eyeballs Shagaf...Shagaf eyeballs Mor Spirit....Danzing Candy has to send hard!

Mo Tom and Guns scoot up the rail to grab 1 and 2 path.
Destin grabs three path
Exaggerator probably the 4 path...then eyeballs Nyquist who scoots right by them all...Nyquist on the pine going into the first turn...now he can relax cause all the other speed forced to go wide... :)

Baffert probably not happy with Mor Spirit's post...

[Tommy Tom]

I see high payoff exotics.

I'm feeling the same.

[Secondbest]

3-1. 8-1 , Then all double dígits. iIf Nyquist is out looks like big balloons.However just looking at the odds Is Nyquist THAT much better than everybody else?

[glengarry]

Love Gun Runners post.

If Trojan Nation wins from the #1 post, well, all things are possible.

Mor Spirit coming out of post #17, no horse has ever won the derby from post 17, Point Given came out of post #17.

Brody's cause received a really bad bost #19.

Danzig Candy from the #20 post, should shoot out like a rocket & hope to get the lead. Nyquist should be right there from post #13 with DC.

An absolute great draw for Gun Runner. Loved his LD visually, but not sold on the overall package. Prior race an ugly win. Slow on speed figures, off of 2 dream rail runs. This post gives him a chance to get the same dream trip. If he drew wide, then he would have been a toss. Now, have to upgrade his chances considerably. Also agree on BC. The look on Romans face said it all. Smith has to blast with DC. Good luck slowing him down. If I was Mario G., I would leave hard with Nyquist and get to the rail. Like everything else in this year's running, more questions than answers, be it analyzing works, speed figures, or the post draw.

[VigorsTheGrey]

I believe they go two at a time: 1-11, 2-12, 3-13, etc... 10-20.

That should be good for Destin...he won't have to wait long and is not drawn inside or outside...definitely moves him up....

[clocker7]

Nyquist, with Tom's Ready to his inside and Mohaymen on his other side.

Doesn't get much better. Lucky number 13.

[yankeelpn]

Im going for the forgotten Pletcher horse - Outwork has been training a lot better than Destin and I love the odds and JV riding.

[clocker7]

At best, Outwork will be gunning for position with the 20 horse. Suicide.

At worst, he won't be able to cut in front of Nyquist, making things impossible.

Toss.

[fiznow]

I doubt we can take the morning line maker serious. He couldnt even read the names in right order and forgot some horses until they helped him. ;)

[f2tornado]

Interesting draw with speed on outside, stalkers/midpack in the middle, and most closers on the inside. It would seem the speed horses have their hand forced but this could also force horses like Nyquist and Mohaymen to use up energy early to avoid the cutoff or wide trip. Meanwhile, most of the deep closers will have their work cut out going around a massive field but will have the luxury of ground saving trip. My top choice Exaggerator drew a very nice 11 hole.

[MutuelClerk]

That's what's great about this race. Actual value no matter what you do. If Nyquist is out the skies the limit. If it runs ABC the tri can pay close to 300.00. It seems like post 19 really compromised Brody. Goes from possible stalker to deep closer. That rarely works in the KY Derby. Good luck to all!!!!

[JayTris07]

Lani PP8. I'm liking that.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Seems to me Nyquist, Gun Runner, and Mo Tom had the best post draws....

I actually dont think the 20 is that bad for Danzing Candy. Mo Tom will be flying he is gonna save ground then kick out as wide as possible when he can. No way that jockey is getting stuck inside again and he will have saved some ground and have something left going wide. He's landing in the super.

[SecretAgentMan]

Interesting draw with speed on outside, stalkers/midpack in the middle, and most closers on the inside. It would seem the speed horses have their hand forced but this could also force horses like Nyquist and Mohaymen to use up energy early to avoid the cutoff or wide trip. Meanwhile, most of the deep closers will have their work cut out going around a massive field but will have the luxury of ground saving trip. My top choice Exaggerator drew a very nice 11 hole.



Nyquist might try to wire the field if Danzig cant get the lead.

[PowerUpPaynter]

i cant see a way danzing dont take the lead even if he has to go 22 and 45

[upthecreek]

I doubt we can take the morning line maker serious. He couldnt even read the names in right order and forgot some horses until they helped him. ;)
Mike Watchmaker beating him up on Twitter, says his ML adds up to 134 points,needs to be adjusted
https://mobile.twitter.com/DRFWatchmaker/status/727981282542665728?s=03

[VigorsTheGrey]

Mike Watchmaker beating him up on Twitter, says his ML adds up to 134 points,needs to be adjusted
https://mobile.twitter.com/DRFWatchmaker/status/727981282542665728?s=03

What are they talking about...please explain in simple english so nimwits like yours truly can understand also...

[glengarry]

Seems to me Nyquist, Gun Runner, and Mo Tom had the best post draws....

I actually dont think the 20 is that bad for Danzing Candy. Mo Tom will be flying he is gonna save ground then kick out as wide as possible when he can. No way that jockey is getting stuck inside again and he will have saved some ground and have something left going wide. He's landing in the super.

Nyquist didn't draw well at all. He has the 2 assumed speeds outside of him instead of vice versa. Jerry Bailey, who was as sharp as can be as a rider and an analyst, said that Mario G. has a lot of decisions to make. A lot can go wrong that makes singling him a tough proposition. This Derby gets tougher by the minute. I need a crystal ball or a Ouija Board.

[SecretAgentMan]

Mike Battaglia is getting old, maybe its time to step aside?

[dballard125]

3-1. 8-1 , Then all double dígits. iIf Nyquist is out looks like big balloons.However just looking at the odds Is Nyquist THAT much better than everybody else?

In my opinion yes. Yes, he is.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Nyquist didn't draw well at all. He has the 2 assumed speeds outside of him instead of vice versa. Jerry Bailey, who was as sharp as can be as a rider and an analyst, said that Mario G. has a lot of decisions to make. A lot can go wrong that makes singling him a tough proposition. This Derby gets tougher by the minute. I need a crystal ball or a Ouija Board.

Nyquist has 2 options: after making the lead at the finish line first time around drops down to the pine and stays there throughout, shortest way around while drifting slightly to the outside down the backside...OR...He can moderately hog the 2-3 path throughout...which would force the outside speed to pass him as they move toward the inside...either way is good...love his chance even better....double plus good for Nyquist now :)

[yankeelpn]

Believe he will be close but not right up with the pace and have the lead in the stretch, battling it out with Nyquist.

[minethatbird08]

What are they talking about...please explain in simple english so nimwits like yours truly can understand also...
This is the best explanation: http://www.arlingtonpark.com/node/10222

[VigorsTheGrey]

This is the best explanation: http://www.arlingtonpark.com/node/10222

"A true morning line must "balance". If there wasn't any takeout from the ‘win' pool, the base for the point system would be 100. But the line maker must factor in takeout to his formula to arrive at a mathematically correct morning line.

The takeout in the win pool in Illinois is 17 percent. Therefore, by adding 17 to a base of 100, we arrive at 117 points. Then, by designating an additional point per horse, the morning line will generally balance between 125 and 129 points for fields consisting of eight to 12 horses.

Once each race is assigned a point value, the oddsmaker must now balance the field of horses to add up to the designated total (give or take a point or two). In an eight-horse field in Illinois the point value is 117 + 8 = 125."


I sort of get what they are doing, I'm still kind of fuzzy on it....

Does it work after the public bets and the odds are finalized? So no matter what the odds eventually become they will add up to 125 for the case above?

Otherwise, what is the point?

[sammy the sage]

HHHHmmmmm....Nyquist is a very competive horse...but doesn't like to be inside...(watch all his replays (7)..)..w/the speed all outside of him...gonna be interesting indeed...

[glengarry]

HHHHmmmmm....Nyquist is a very competive horse...but doesn't like to be inside...(watch all his replays (7)..)..w/the speed all outside of him...gonna be interesting indeed...

Not being inside is more a byproduct of natural speed and being caught wide in the BC. While he hasn't taken dirt in his face, hard to know how he will react. Point is that this post is far from ideal for him. I'm sure I'm not the only one reading what you are reading. I know he is a warrior. Distance, based on breeding is one question. Post draw another. Hate to have questions on the favorite in the Derby. There was only one question with AP. How much would he win by. Not the case here.

[VigorsTheGrey]

HHHHmmmmm....Nyquist is a very competive horse...but doesn't like to be inside...(watch all his replays (7)..)..w/the speed all outside of him...gonna be interesting indeed...

With his tactical speed and his post position with the closers inside and the speed outside, Nyquist can be a real impediment to other horses trying to get into position...especially since he has a natural tendency to drift toward the outside down the backside...

He can play Mr Jack of Three Paths confounding his early competition...the other speed is going to have to cross over his path at some point or just send wide the whole way....So down the backside he eases back a bit, and lets them cross over...now he is in the catbird seat in the 3 path coming into the lane, a perfect set-up and one that wins a lot on Derby day.

[horses4courses]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChpRQzVW0AIihWo.jpg

[CincyHorseplayer]

What complicates this race is that there are 20 entrants not post positions. I think post positions are the most overblown factor for this particular that I've ever seen. When you have a quarter of a mile in front of you where ground loss counts for absolutely nothing before you get to the first turn unless you are extremely unlucky you should be able to secure the position you want. I'm not saying the extremes cannot be a factor but players to act like they are starting this something. To me I just think it's a whole hell of a lot of hullaballoo. Just like everything else about this race when you handicap it for months! Love it? Guilty as charged!

[f2tornado]

The only time Nyquist posted fast early fractions were in his sprint races. Now he will be going 10F from the 13 hole with ample speed on his outside and plenty of pacers on his inside. If he doesn't go early then he could get run over. If he drops back a bit then he might get behind better closers. I think he's screwed and will let him prove my wagering wallet wrong.

[barahona44]

"A true morning line must "balance". If there wasn't any takeout from the ‘win' pool, the base for the point system would be 100. But the line maker must factor in takeout to his formula to arrive at a mathematically correct morning line.

The takeout in the win pool in Illinois is 17 percent. Therefore, by adding 17 to a base of 100, we arrive at 117 points. Then, by designating an additional point per horse, the morning line will generally balance between 125 and 129 points for fields consisting of eight to 12 horses.

Once each race is assigned a point value, the oddsmaker must now balance the field of horses to add up to the designated total (give or take a point or two). In an eight-horse field in Illinois the point value is 117 + 8 = 125."


I sort of get what they are doing, I'm still kind of fuzzy on it....

Does it work after the public bets and the odds are finalized? So no matter what the odds eventually become they will add up to 125 for the case above?

Otherwise, what is the point?
Everything still has to add up to the predetermined number.If there was a scratch just before post time, the odds would also change ,although in a 20 horse race, the changes would be minimal.
And if Nyquist gets bet down to 3/2, then some of the other entries would have their odds adjusted to go over the morning line to balance that number out.

[Huddy Goodjob]

Love Gun Runners post.

If Trojan Nation wins from the #1 post, well, all things are possible.

Mor Spirit coming out of post #17, no horse has ever won the derby from post 17, Point Given came out of post #17.

Brody's cause received a really bad bost #19.

Danzig Candy from the #20 post, should shoot out like a rocket & hope to get the lead. Nyquist should be right there from post #13 with DC.

I can see Brody getting a similar trip I'll Have Another got. If he trips like his Bluegrass.

Gun Runner being sandwiched between deep closers...man...wide open run way to get position.

I wouldn't mind if Lani broke out right and caused some traffic from the start for some, avoiding Whitmore.

My Man drew well too.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I meant to say players are acting like they are starting the race directly on the turn or something. Traffic and distance are the real issues IMO. Post Positions not so much!

[VigorsTheGrey]

I meant to say players are acting like they are starting the race directly on the turn or something. Traffic and distance are the real issues IMO. Post Positions not so much!

I think it is close to 5/16 of a mile gate to turn?

[Zaf]

Mike Battaglia is getting old, maybe its time to step aside?

Hey give the guy a break, do you think its easy making the ML odds in a 20 horse kaotic field.

Z

[CincyHorseplayer]

I think it is close to 5/16 of a mile gate to turn?

The entire length of the stretch and a partial chute. There is plenty of time to navigate tactical position. Traffic causes the problems not post position. And distance is what defeats a lot of these not post position. This is my 20th Derby and I think this discussion every year is always a hoot! I don't believe in the statistics either except on post 1. With this much distance before the turn PP is only an excuse later IMO.

[PaceAdvantage]

Nyquist has 2 options: after making the lead at the finish line first time around drops down to the pine and stays there throughout, shortest way around while drifting slightly to the outside down the backside...OR...He can moderately hog the 2-3 path throughout...which would force the outside speed to pass him as they move toward the inside...either way is good...love his chance even better....double plus good for Nyquist now :)And despite all the above, you refer to yourself as a racing "nimwit" a few posts earlier...I can't reconcile this.

[CoxHub]

Check out this new Derby Podcast and Article (http://www.coxhub.com/articles/several-with-big-chance-in-kentucky-derby-2016)

[f2tornado]

Traffic and distance are the real issues IMO. Post Positions not so much!

I certainly would not jump off my choice because of a draw but I will back off others I'm on the fence about if I don't like the post. Sorry, Danzing Candy. You had a fighting chance from the 8 hole, but you're no Big Brown from the 20.

[fiznow]

Just want to quote this here. Bob Baffert after the draw, "It's funny, the way all the speed is on the out side, so it'll probably be two different races going on."

[CincyHorseplayer]

Just want to quote this here. Bob Baffert after the draw, "It's funny, the way all the speed is on the out side, so it'll probably be two different races going on."

There are always 2 races going on. Speed in the front and everybody else in the back!

[VigorsTheGrey]

Just want to quote this here. Bob Baffert after the draw, "It's funny, the way all the speed is on the out side, so it'll probably be two different races going on."

I think it is an interesting quote by Baffert...I'm pretty sure he wants Mor Spirit in the 3-4 path, 3 lengths from the lead going into the first turn...this post position (17) almost makes that impossible to do...

Mor Spirit REALLY needed to draw inside most of the speed to have a shot at this, he won't be able to grind away with his running style because he'll be forced to go wide early and he can't drop back because all his recent training clearly says they want him in the 2nd flight right behind the early horses and in the 3-4 path heading down the backside...

I don't think he will get the trip he needs to win this now...too bad 'cause I've been following him for some time now...waiting for the post draw...some say the post draw is not that important...but I really think it depends on your horse's running style and where the competition is drawn relative to you and yours...

What I read into his quote is----it's funny with all of the speed on the outside, and with Mor Spirit drawn outside of most of the speed, this race won't set up for Mor Spirit like I originally thought, and I'm going to have to rethink how Gary and I can pull this off now, in this new race...

[razorback5]

All he needs is two defections on the inside and Mor Spirit gets the 15 hole.