Hong Kong May 4th Happy Valley

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong for May 4th at Happy Valley.
Weather report: 74 degrees Partly Cloudy wind: se 9 mph.
Post time: 7.15am ET 4.15am PT Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good
Feature: Race 4 Class 1
Total purses: $ 2,496,605US

Links to past performances:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20160504_starter_all.pdf

http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html


Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 1 :4: Mr. Vanilla (4-1) 3% Trainer, breaking from the 12 barrier and is only 1 for 27 lifetime.
Race 2 :1: No Money No Talk (5-2) 1 for 26 in races at Sha Tin and Happy Valley.


Horse coming out of a key race (multiple winners that have come back out of those races and won at or higher class than today's class).
Race 5 :6: Yo-Yo Da (10-1) Race 484 has had two winners, the 3rd and 5th place runners.


Horses off my watch list (with links for the replays):
Race 3 :3: Sparkling Sword (19-1) Race 576 #3 barrier 5. He was standing well in the barriers until the hood was removed at which time it became fractious. Very slow away, at rear, harmed by the very slow pace, no progress. http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/video/play.asp?type=replay-full&date=20160420&no=02&lang=eng

Race 6 :8: Flying Force (7-2) Race 562 #10 barrier 1. Was unable to obtain clear running until over the concluding stages and consequently was not able to be properly tested. http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/video/play.asp?type=replay-full&date=20160413&no=07&lang=eng

Race 7 :7: Top Bonus (4-1) Race 562 #9 barrier 10. Bumped start, pressed forward 4-wide outside pacemakers, but eased to 4th 800m. Bumped, unbalanced and taken wider 550m, widest into straight, one-paced. http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/video/play.asp?type=replay-full&date=20160413&no=07&lang=eng

Race 7 :11: Beauty Kingdom (7-1) Race 582 #10 barrier 5. Began awkwardly, shifted out and bumped a runner, which resulted in the horse losing ground. After the 200M was shifted out away from heels after being awkwardly placed behind a runner. http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/video/play.asp?type=replay-full&date=20160420&no=08&lang=eng


Longshots:
Race 1 :6: Novel Start (18-1)
Race 2 :11: Kim Glory (10-1)
Race 6 :1: Victory Day (18-1)
Race 8 :5: Fantastic Kaka (17-1)

[woodbinepmi]

Race 1 Class 5 1659 Metres
Trying to beat a bad favourite here, :4: bad trainer, bad post, bad horse. Dutching the drop in class :1: and the :6: that just won at 17-1 on the dirt.

[woodbinepmi]

Race 1 results:
:8: - :12: - :5: - :4: Winner pays $63.30

[woodbinepmi]

Race 2 Class 4 1000 Metres

Another bad favourite :1: No Money No Talk with the drop in class, getting the 7 lb. weight allowance but has yet to show any heart in his races, winning only 1 out of 26 in Hong Kong.
Going with :11: Kim Glory (8-1) was forced to chase a lone speed easy winner in his last race, Over :2: :1: Over :4: :9: :10: :8:

:11: / :2: :1: / :4: :9: :10: :8:

[kevb]

Hello HK players.
Race 2: WP :12: blinkers back on.

[kevb]

She's tough to pass in the lane.

[woodbinepmi]

She's tough to pass in the lane.
yes she is.

Race 2 results: :1: - :10: - :12: - :11: Winner pays $ 7.10

[woodbinepmi]

Race 3 Class 4 1650 Metres

:3: Sparkling Sword (20-1) a need to lead type that was very slow out of the gate in his last, then was very rank afterward and was never asked to run, total throw out. 7 out of 11 in the money at the Valley and is getting a 7 lb weight allowance. Over :7: Had an easy lead but had to get to his bottom against a longshot on 31st of march. :8: :4: Over :2: :5:

:3: / :7: :8: :4: / :2: :5:

[kevb]

Race 3:

Joe and Kei dueling to the wire? I'll take 9:1

WP :5:

Q Box :1: :3: :5: :7: :10:

[kevb]

ouch

[woodbinepmi]

Race 3 results:
:9: - :7: - :12: - :10: Winner pays $ 18.00

[woodbinepmi]

Race 4 Class 1 1800 Metres

More than happy to take 9-1 on :1: Romantic Touch, always tries was just outrun by better in his last, playing him to win and with the :2: and :3: . Not too keen on the :5: Jun Ho, caught a weak field of class 2 runners and a favourite who had all kinds of trouble.

:1: / :2: :3:

[kevb]

Agree on the 1.

WP :1:
Q Box :1: :2: :3: :4:

[woodbinepmi]

Race 4 results: :5: - :4: - :7: - :8: Winner pays $12

Not going well for me at the moment, last couple meets have had trouble getting my key horses to run.

[woodbinepmi]

Race 5 Class 4 1200 Metres

Not coming up with much in this race, pretty evenly matched field with lots of speed. Just making an entertainment play on the :6: Yo-Yo Da (11-1) ran fourth while the third and fifth place finishers came back and won next out. With the :4: :3: :5: :2:

:6: / :4: :3: :5: :2:

[kevb]

Race 5:
WP :11: showing more speed than usual with KK Chiong

[kevb]

:4: dripping with sweat.

[woodbinepmi]

:4: dripping with sweat.
Track vet was speaking with Prebble before they started loading, never a good sign.

Race 5 results: :3: - :11: - :12: - :1: Winner pays $ 10.80

[woodbinepmi]

Race 6 Class 3 1000 Metres

My last key horse of the day and has the wrong running style for how this track is playing today. :8: Flying Force (5-2) had a little trouble early on then was blocked in the stretch and closed well when room became available. Over :1: Victory Day beat Werther (Derby and QEII winner) by over 8 lengths in a race in New Zealand and not too far behind him in a couple races after that, likes to run on the front end. :9: :2: over :6: :5: :4:

:8: / :1: :9: :2: / :6: :5: :4:

[kevb]

Race 6:

I like :9: , but gate 12??

Joe at 13:1 is attractive, but gate 11?

Maybe the first time HK :1: is the way to go 20:1.

WP :1:
P :9:

[woodbinepmi]

Race 6 results: :12: - :6: - :8: - :9: Winner pays: $15.50

They bet him down to 6-1, the little devil gets me again. Knew I was in trouble down the backside with the way this track is playing tonight.

[kevb]

yep

[woodbinepmi]

Race 7 Class 3 1200 Metres

Hate betting chalk, but with all the trouble he had hard not to back him. :7: Top Bonus (5-2) with leading trainer and jockey breaking on the rail that likes to run where you need to be right now. Over :11: watch horse :2: :8: over :1: :12: :3:

:7: / :11: :2: :8: / :1: :12: :3:

[kevb]

Race 7:
Ask the teller to punch out :1: :7: :8: / :1: :7: :8: Quinellas until he runs out of tickets.

[woodbinepmi]

Man, I have watched every race at Hong Kong this year maybe 5 or 6 times a piece and I have never seen these races have such a bias like this. Just get to the front and let it carry you home.

Race 7 results: :1: - :7: - :11: - :8: Winner pays $ 17.60

Good hit there kevb

[stuball]

Who is the early speed in the 8th

[woodbinepmi]

Race 8 Class 3 1650 Metres

:5: Fantastic Kaka (10-1) had trouble at the start in his last and it cost him everything being a need to lead type. Draws the rail and is dropping in class and PLEASE for the love of Christ send him to the front, don't care what the trainer and owner tell you in the paddock, ride him like a quarter horse. :1: Over :4: beaten by a better trip while going wide, :6: impressive win in last Over :3: :8: :9: :10: for third.

:5: :1: / :4: :6: / :3: :8: :9: :10:

[woodbinepmi]

Who is the early speed in the 8th
The bug girl will probably will send on the :2: , the :5: :7: and :11: like to run on the lead

[kevb]

Race 8:
I don't like the gate or the weight, but who do you want on the lead when they turn for home?
WP :2:
Q :2: :5: :11: / :1: :2: :3: :5: :8: :10: :11:

[kevb]

ughh

[stuball]

closer wins fast pace

[woodbinepmi]

Painful.

Race 8 results: :6: - :7: - :5: - :9: Winner pays $ 34

[woodbinepmi]

My French jock chickened out (typical) and gave up his position and then the horse refused to split in the lane. The bug girl might have won if the horse changed leads. Losing day, but always fun playing Hong Kong. Later guys.