Let's Try Looking at it Like this (just for fun)

[bgbootha]

Most likely winner -
Most likely value play -
Safest Longshot to hit the Trifecta -
Easiest Toss -
Who are you tossing that most aren't -
Your longshot pick that can win -

----------------------------------------------
I will go first

Most likely winner - Nyquist
Most likely value play- Destin
Safest Longshot to hit the Trifecta - Mo Tom / Creator
Easiest Toss - Trojan Nation
Who are you tossing that most aren't - Exaggerator
Your longshot pick that can win - Lani

[AirNate012]

Most likely winner - Nyquist
Most likely value play- Creator
Safest Longshot to hit the Trifecta - Suddenbreakingnews
Easiest Toss - Outwork
Who are you tossing that most aren't - Mohaymen
Your longshot pick that can win - Creator

[depalma113]

Most likely winner - Exaggerator
Most likely value play- Outwork
Safest Longshot to hit the Trifecta - Danzig Candy
Easiest Toss - Oscar Nominated
Who are you tossing that most aren't - Creator
Your longshot pick that can win - Mojesto

[fiznow]

Most likely winner - Majesto
Most likely value play - Majesto
Safest Longshot to hit the Trifecta - Majesto
Easiest Toss - Tom's Ready
Who are you tossing that most aren't - Gun Runner
Your longshot pick that can win - Majesto

;););)

[PowerUpPaynter]

Most likely winner - Nyquist
Most likely value play -Mohaymen
Safest Longshot to hit the Trifecta - Whitmore
Easiest Toss - Lani
Who are you tossing that most aren't - Shagaf
Your longshot pick that can win - Danzing Candy

[chov1125]

Most likely winner - Exaggerator
Most likely value play - Destin
Safest Longshot to hit the Trifecta - Suddenbreakingnews
Easiest Toss - Lani
Who are you tossing that most aren't - Gun Runner
Your longshot pick that can win - Suddenbreakingnews

[OptionalClaimer]

Most Likely winner : My Man Sam
Most Likely value play: Suddenbreakingnews
Safest Longshot to hit trifecta: Mo Tom
Easiest toss: Nyquist
Who are you tossing most aren't: Nyquist
Your longshot pick that can win: Creator

[minethatbird08]

Dump truck of cash if you hit those 3. Good luck

[señorclipclop]

Most Likely winner: Gun Runner
Most Likely value play: Suddenbreakingnews
Safest Longshot to hit trifecta: Suddenbreakingnews
Easiest toss: Shagaf
Who are you tossing most aren't: Mor Spirit
Your longshot pick that can win: Suddenbreakingnews

[yankeelpn]

Most likely winner - Nyquist
Most likely value play - Outwork
Safest Longshot to hit the Trifecta - Mo Tom
Easiest Toss - Lani
Who are you tossing that most aren't - Majesto
Your longshot pick that can win - Whitmore

[coachv30]

Most likely winner - Exaggerator
Most likely value play - Mor Spirit
Safest Longshot to hit the Trifecta - Danzing Candy
Easiest Toss - Shagaf
Who are you tossing that most aren't - Mohaymen
Your longshot pick that can win -SuddenBreakingNews

[barahona44]

Most Likely Winner. Nyquist
Most Likely Value Play. Suddenbreakingnews
Safest Longshot to hit the Trifecta. Mo Tom
Easiest Toss. Trojan Nation
Who are you tossing that most aren't. Gun Runner
Your Longshot that can win. Mo Tom

[JayTris07]

Most likely winner - CREATOR
Most likely value play - SHAGAF
Safest Longshot to hit the Trifecta - ADVENTIST
Easiest Toss - EXAGGERATOR
Who are you tossing that most aren't - EXAGGERATOR
Your longshot pick that can win - ADVENTIST

[bgbootha]

The beauty of the KYDerby is that we all such different opinions and 90% of us are going to be wrong...LOL

Keep it up this is great, I will collate these on Friday at some time and see where we stand.

[gov135]

Most likely winner: Nyquist
Most likely value play: Destin
Safest longshot to hit trifecta: SBN
Easiest toss: Shagaf
Who tossing that others aren't: Mohaymen
Longshot can pick to win: SBN

[arw629]

Most likely winner: Nyquist
Most likely value play: Exaggerator and Mohaymen. ..value plays never win---many ppl will think these two fool's gold horses are too good to be true at 15-1
Safest longshot to hit trifecta: There is no such thing as a safe long shot and since SBN was picked by almost everyone on here he is now the easiest toss ....for sake of this post I will still make a pick for this category...Gun Runner
Easiest toss: SBN
Who tossing that others aren't: everyone except Nyquist, Brody's Cause and Gun Runner
Longshot can pick to win: Mine that Bird

*

[razorback5]

Most likely winner - Nyquist
Most likely value play -Danzig Candy
Safest Longshot to hit the Trifecta - Creator/Brody's Cause
Easiest Toss - Shagaf
Who are you tossing that most aren't - Mohaymen
Your longshot pick that can win -Mor Spirit

[Andrick]

Most likely winner - Creator
Most likely value play - Creator
Safest Longshot to hit the Trifecta - Suddenbreakingnews
Easiest Toss - Mohaymen
Who are you tossing that most aren't - Mor Spirit
Your longshot pick that can win -Outwork

[MNslappy]

Most likely winner - Nyquist
Most likely value play -Mor Spirit
Safest Longshot to hit the Trifecta - Outwork
Easiest Toss - Oscar Nominated
Who are you tossing that most aren't - Gun Runner
Your longshot pick that can win -Outwork

[pele polo]

Most Likely Winner: MOHAYMEN
Most Likely Value Play: CREATOR
Safest Longshot to Hit the Tri: CREATOR
Easiest Toss: OSCAR NOMINATED
Who Are You Tossing That Most Aren't: EXAGGERATOR
Longshot Pick To Win: CREATOR

[MonmouthParkJoe]

Most Likely Winner: Nyquist-I keep trying to talk myself off this horse, but he fits so much of the criteria that I look for. I have never given him his due, but I think he really does win this race.
Most Likely Value Play: Destin-Despie history not being on his side, I loved his last two races and his style should put him right there
Safest Longshot to Hit the Tri: Creator. I would put Exaggerator in this spot but he figures to take alot of money
Easiest Toss: Shagaf-NY preps seem to have become a thing of the past, and just think he is a cut below
Who Are You Tossing That Most Aren't: Brodys Cause-Seems to really like Keeneland, and that race in my opinion fell apart
Longshot Pick To Win: Mo Tom-He has had severe traffic problems in his last, and such a big field should only present a bigger challenge. Clean trip would give him a solid chance, but you can say that about many of these given how important the trip is in the derby.

[Wickel]

Most Likely Winner: Nyquist
Most Likely Value Play: Mohamen, Destin
Safest Longshot to Hit Tri: My Man Sam
Easiest Toss: Lani
Who Are You Tossing That Most Aren't: Creator
Longshot Pick to Win: Danzing Candy

[delsully]

Most Likely Winner: You tell me, er....Nyquist?
Most Likely Value Play: Mor Spirit
Safest Longshot to Hit Tri: Mohaymen
Easiest Toss: Oscar Nominated
Who Are You Tossing That Most Aren't: Gun Runner
Longshot Pick to Win: Danzing Candy

[jtschmidt]

Most Likely Winner: Nyquist
Most Likely Value Play: Mohaymen (seems he will be an overlay)
Safest Longshot to Hit Tri: Majesto
Easiest Toss: Oscar Nominated
Who Are You Tossing That Most Aren't: Outwork
Longshot Pick to Win: Majesto

[Tape Reader]

This is a great idea! (From a tote board player that has no clue on PPs.)

[ArlJim78]

Most Likely Winner: Mor Spirit
Most Likely Value Play: Mor Spirit
Safest Longshot to Hit Tri: Creator
Easiest Toss: Shagaf
Who Are You Tossing That Most Aren't: Danzing Candy
Longshot Pick to Win: Whitmore

[dballard125]

Most Likely Winner: Nyquist
Most Likely Value Play: Whitmore
Safest Longshot to Hit Tri: Mo Tom
Easiest Toss: Oscar Nominated
Who Are You Tossing That Most Aren't: Mor Spirit
Longshot Pick to Win: Mo Tom

[MutuelClerk]

Most Likely Winner: Exaggerator

Most Likely Value Play: My Man Sam

Safest Longshot to Hit Tri: Mo Tom

Easiest Toss: Shagaf

Who You Tossing Most Aren't: Outwork

Longshot Pick To win: My Man Sam/ Mo Tom

[soonboomer]

Most Likely Winner: Exaggerator

Most Likely Value Play: Mor Spirit

Safest Longshot to Hit Tri: Danzing Candy

Easiest Toss: Trojan Nation

Who You Tossing Most Aren't: Nyquist

Longshot Pick To win: Mor Spirit (12/1??)

[iceknight]

Most Likely Winner: Nyquist

Most Likely Value Play: Mor Spirit

Safest Longshot to Hit Tri: Suddenbreakingnews

Easiest Toss: Oscar Nominated

Who You Tossing Most Aren't: Mohaymen?

Longshot Pick To win: Lani

[andtheyreoff]

Most likely winner - Nyquist
Most likely value play - Gun Runner
Safest Longshot to hit the Trifecta - My Man Sam
Easiest Toss - Trojan Nation
Who are you tossing that most aren't - Destin, Whitmore, Outwork, Mor Spirit
Your longshot pick that can win - Suddenbreakingnews

[thespaah]

Most likely winner - by odds, Nyquist
Most likely value play -Gun Runner
Safest Longshot to hit the Trifecta - Outwork
Easiest Toss - Tom's Ready
Who are you tossing that most aren't - Mo Tom...As long as Lanerie is on this horse, I am staying away
Your longshot pick that can win - Danzing Candy

[Cholly]

Most likely winner - Mor Spirit
Most likely value play - 12-1 is enough value for me, but I like Destin a little also.
Safest Longshot to hit the Trifecta - Haven't a clue
Easiest Tosses I - Nyquist, Exaggerator, & Brody's Cause (The BC Juvenile is perennially as negative a key race as a race can be; other than Street Sense, merely participating in that one has been the kiss of death).
Easiest Tosses II - Creator & Mohaymen (Storm Cat made his Owners a slew of money in stud fees but never threw a Derby winner; Tapit, ditto.
Who are you tossing that most aren't - see above
Your longshot pick that can win - Oscar Nominated

[salty]

Most likely winner- Nyquist (duh) obviously

Best value play - Mor Spirit (has to have better odds than in any other race of his life)

Safest long shots to hit tri: with degrees of possible and how
safe- Mor Spirit (clunk it up)
moderate risk-Creator (Houdini reincarnated as a horse)
risky - Majesto (sneaky move)

Easiest toss: Moheymen - exposed

Who are you tossing that most aren't: Brody's cause and my man Sam

Long shot pick to win: Majesto


Anyone who is saying the most likely winner isn't Nyquist is out of their mind. Undefeated in 7 races on 4 tracks in 3 different states which includes Churchill 2 grade 2s and 4 grade 1s. 5 different distances, looked great at 1 1/8th last out with good energy. I'm not saying he's the for sure winner but he is for sure the most likely winner of this race.

At this point I am halfway through making up my mind on this years derby.

[porkchop]

Most Likely Winner Nyquist

Most Likely Value Play Mohaymen

Safest Longshot to Hit the Trifecta Mor Spirit

Easiest Toss Trojan Nation

Who are you tossing most arent Gun Runner

Longshot pick that can win Toms Ready

[SecretAgentMan]

Most likely winner- Nyquist (duh) obviously

Best value play - Mor Spirit (has to have better odds than in any other race of his life)

Safest long shots to hit tri: with degrees of possible and how
safe- Mor Spirit (clunk it up)
moderate risk-Creator (Houdini reincarnated as a horse)
risky - Majesto (sneaky move)

Easiest toss: Moheymen - exposed

Who are you tossing that most aren't: Brody's cause and my man Sam

Long shot pick to win: Majesto


Anyone who is saying the most likely winner isn't Nyquist is out of their mind. Undefeated in 7 races on 4 tracks in 3 different states which includes Churchill 2 grade 2s and 4 grade 1s. 5 different distances, looked great at 1 1/8th last out with good energy. I'm not saying he's the for sure winner but he is for sure the most likely winner of this race.

At this point I am halfway through making up my mind on this years derby.



Nyquist never ran at Churchill.

[salty]

:lol: my bad clearly a late night error there :rolleyes:

[FrankieFigs]

Most likely winner - Gun Runner
Most likely value play - Mor Spirit
Safest Longshot to hit the Trifecta - Creator
Easiest Toss - Lani
Who are you tossing that most aren't - Exaggerator
Your longshot pick that can win - Gun Runner

[trifecta]

Most likely winner - Mor Spirt
Most likely value play - Creator
Safest Longshot to hit the Trifecta - Gun Runner
Easiest Toss - Trojan Nation
Who are you tossing that most aren't - Exaggerator
Your longshot pick that can win - Brody's Cause

[AlBundy33]

Most likely winner - Gun Runner
Most likely value play - My Man Sam
Safest Longshot to hit the Trifecta - Tom's Ready (The Dallas Stewart Special)
Easiest Toss - Oscar Nominated
Who are you tossing that most aren't - Mor Spirit
Your longshot pick that can win - Mo Tom, pending on whether Lanerie goes mentally bankrupt again or not.

[MonmouthParkJoe]

Most likely winner - Gun Runner
Most likely value play - My Man Sam
Safest Longshot to hit the Trifecta - Tom's Ready (The Dallas Stewart Special)
Easiest Toss - Oscar Nominated
Who are you tossing that most aren't - Mor Spirit
Your longshot pick that can win - Mo Tom, pending on whether Lanerie goes mentally bankrupt again or not.

Love the Dallas Stewart special! Always seems to make it in there

[AlBundy33]

Love the Dallas Stewart special! Always seems to make it in there

He killed me in 2013 and 2014. And the funny thing is that I did like Commanding Curve, but he was the last horse that made the Derby that year at the eleventh hour, 59th minute and 59th second. I couldn'the tell if they were a serious entry or if the connections just wanted to run in the Derby to say they ran in the Derby.

[bgbootha]

Alright guys, here is where we stand....

Most Likely Winner
19 Nyquist
5 Exaggerator
3 Gun Runner
3 Mor Spirit
2 Creator
1 Majesto
1 My Man Sam
1 Mohaymen

Best Value Bet
8 Mor Spirit
5 Destin
4 Creator
4 Mohaymen
3 SuddenBreakingnews
2 outwork
2 my Man Sam
2 Gun Runner
1 Majesto
1 Shagaf
1 Exaggerator
1 Danzing Candy
1 Whitmore


Longshot Trifecta
6 Suddenbreakingnews
5 Creator
4 Mo tom
3 Danzing Candy
2 Gun Runner
2 Outwork
2 My Man Sam
2 Mor Spirit
1 MoTom
1 Majetso
1 Whitmor
1 MotTom
1 Adventist
1 Moh
1 Majesto
1 Toms Ready

Easiest Toss
8 Oscar Nominated
7 Shagaf
6 Trojan nation
5 Lani
2 Toms Ready
2 Nyquist
2 Mohaymen
1 outwork
1 Exaggerator
1 SuddenBreakingNews

Hardest Toss
5 Exaggerator
5 Mohaymen
5 Gun Runner
4 Mor Spirit
3 Creator
2 Nyquist
2 Brody's Cause
2 Outwork
1 Shagaf
1 gun runner
1 Majesto
1 Danzing Candy
1 Destin
1 Mo Tom

Longshot Winner
5 SuddenBreakingNews
4 Majesto
4 Danzing Candy
4 Mo Tom
3 Creator
2 Lani
2 Whitmore
2 Mor Spirit
2 Outwork
1 Adventist
1 Mine that Bird
1 My man sam
1 Oscar Nominated
1 Toms Ready
1 Gun Runner
1 brodys Cause

[pondman]

Most likely winner - Exaggerator
Most likely value play- Mor Spirit
Safest Longshot to hit the Trifecta - Gun Runner
Easiest Toss - Trojan Nation
Who are you tossing that most aren't - Nyquist
Your longshot pick that can win - Mor Spirit