View Full Version : Average Jockey Winning Percentage

Sparky13

05-03-2016, 11:33 AM

I have a method that has as an "Optional Procedure", an add on to their basic number, to rate Jockeys on a scale of zero (0) to nine (9). 9 being the highest rating. In percentage terms, what is considered the "average number" for Jockey's Wins? Is it 12%, 15%, etc.?

Ocala Mike

05-03-2016, 01:38 PM

Typically, at a meeting, 3-6 jockeys will amass 60% or more of the wins, skewing the "average" a great deal. Statistically, I think you should search for the "median" or even better, the "mode" in your work.

therussmeister

05-03-2016, 01:51 PM

The average jockey win percentage is one divided by the average number of starters per race. Unless there have been a large enough number of dead heats for win, which would push the average higher.

green80

05-03-2016, 09:07 PM

I think that they should put in the stats somewhere the average odds of the horses the jock rides. A jock with a 30% win rate riding all chalk cannot compare to a jock with a 10% win rate riding 15/1 shots. Average odds for trainers and jocks could show us who is winning because they are on horses that are much the best.

Augenj

05-03-2016, 09:15 PM

I think that they should put in the stats somewhere the average odds of the horses the jock rides. A jock with a 30% win rate riding all chalk cannot compare to a jock with a 10% win rate riding 15/1 shots. Average odds for trainers and jocks could show us who is winning because they are on horses that are much the best.

Agreed. Perhaps ROI might be a better yardstick?

Ocala Mike

05-03-2016, 09:25 PM

No, that is incorrect, russmeister; you're assuming the exact same jockeys ride in every race with no races off.

Let's assume a 100 race meeting with a jockey colony consisting of 10 riders and an average field size of just 5 horses.

At the end of the meeting, the standings look like this:

A 90 mounts/30 wins = 33.3%

B 80 mounts/22 wins = 27.5%

C 65 mounts/14 wins = 21.5%

D 35 mounts/6 wins = 17.1%

E 45 mounts/7 wins = 15.6%

F 40 mounts/6 wins = 15%

G 40 mounts/6 wins = 15%

H 35 mounts/5 wins = 14.3%

I 30 mounts/2 wins = 6.7%

J 40 mounts/2 wins = 5%

The average jockey winning percentage is 17.1%, the median is 15.3%, and the mode is 15%. What you would do with this, and what you would do about places and shows is up to you and your program.

zerosky

05-04-2016, 01:29 PM

I once toyed around with rating connections using the Brier Score using the odds as the forecast probability against the the binary event win not-win. This indicates those jocks & trainers who out perform the odds.

The whole subject of forecast verification is a very rich seam. This link (http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/verification/#Methods_for_dichotomous_forecasts) provides a good overview of the subject.

chaz63

05-10-2016, 08:05 AM

Statsmaster from Trackmaster will give you stats of trainers or jocks on longshots 5/1 or higher I believe. If that helps anyone at all. Sorry if off topic.

fiznow

05-11-2016, 03:52 AM

Check out horse - jockey combinations. Sometimes a lower percent jockey has a great record with the specific horse.

WarWin440

03-28-2017, 04:48 PM

I like using the Statsmaster to see who made ITM%

They show odds of 8-1 or higher.

I've noticed that the list is missing Jockeys fro this list that should be there..

Does anyone know of another site that offers the same info???

I now see that most of you suggest using a spreadsheet of some sort to organize these.

VigorsTheGrey

03-28-2017, 05:06 PM

I have noticed over years of chart watching the rather common sense notion that low percentage jockeys win more often on low odds horses than they will aboard higher odds horses....I'm sure the same holds true for high percentage jockeys, that they win more often on lower odds mounts...

The test is whether a high percentage jockey can move up high odds horses...what would a test for this look like...? I intuit that this might indeed be the case, and assuming it was, and the stats held up, what would explain this....qualitative factors, no doubt....

WarWin440

03-28-2017, 05:15 PM

I like playing exotic's, especially the superfecta. I've seen low percentage win jockeys put more effort into getting ITM with high odds horses to no surprise, and high percentage jockeys not reach the money on a favorite. With many variables and reasons may be I watch for those lower Jockey's to get up there to put in my ticket.

whodoyoulike

03-28-2017, 06:08 PM

Was the OP's question ever answered?

Because, he never elaborated.

The question I have is, has he ever posted again?

davew

03-28-2017, 09:03 PM

I have a method that has as an "Optional Procedure", an add on to their basic number, to rate Jockeys on a scale of zero (0) to nine (9). 9 being the highest rating. In percentage terms, what is considered the "average number" for Jockey's Wins? Is it 12%, 15%, etc.?

Hey Sparky, it depends on the track and the average number of horses per race. There is a very strong relationship between the size of the field and the jockey winning percentage.

castaway01

03-29-2017, 09:00 PM

Was the OP's question ever answered?

Because, he never elaborated.

The question I have is, has he ever posted again?

He's posted a handful of times since then.

You really can't answer the original question, or at least I don't see what benefit a nationwide answer would give. You can say the average jockey wins 11% of the time, but if you're talking about a track with 7-horse fields or a track with 10-horse fields, what would be considered a good percentage would differ. And that only matters if horses of equal skill are equally distributed, which they never are.

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