Morning Lines are a Farce!

[cj]

Typical example, today's 8th at Belmont. The 5-2 ML favorite comes off a good effort in the G1 Acorn earning a 91 Beyer. Her prior race she earned an 85. No horse in the field had EVER earned higher than an 83.

Now, I'm no rocket scientist, but looking at this race, I knew this horse is going to be odds on. It matters not that she won. I understand you don't want to make 4-5 Morning Lines, but 8-5 or 7-5 was realistic. 5-2? No way in hell.

I guess my main question is this - what tools are these guys using to make MLs anymore? I really think they have no idea what today's bettors are using and they are still basing MLs on factors that worked in the 70s! At least step into the 90s!

[Dick Schmidt]

CJ,

You are missing the point of what morning line makers are trying to do. They aren't trying to predict what odds a horse will go off at, they are trying to produce a balanced 120% line that will encourage betting. People see the line you refer to and think: "this horse is a great value, I'll bet on it a whole lot". The morning line is produced by race track employees to encourage betting. Nothing is ever said about how well they reflect final odds.


Dick


In theory there is no difference between practice and theory.
In practice, there is.

[TravisVOX]

One major drawback of Formulator is it's inability to not print morning lines. Brisnet's software allowed this and I was influenced by their B.S. ML's. Dick is right, they're trying to spur betting...and sadly, a few times they've sucked me in! :(

[JackS]

Dick may be right but I think it really is an attempt to predict the way betting will go. The Racing Secretary is the one who's supposed to understand the conditions (he writes them) and assign appropiate weights. It's his knowledge of class and past class that creeps into his view and consciously or unconsciously forms his opinions on the ML. This doesn't explain everything because his ML favorite could easily be the only obvious speed in a race for example versus his supposidly knowledge of true class. I would think that the ML makers top personal choice would be the horse or horses carring high weight.

[John]

I know a morning line oddsmaker pretty well. He tells me it his job to make all odds on horses look attractive to the public. [ or he won't have a job. ] If you were watching for a horse and he showed up in ML as 4\5 would you run to the bank and then run to the track...... I don't think so.

John

[Dick Schmidt]

JackS,

The morning line is rarely done by the racing secretary, at least at most tracks. Maybe some of the little ones, but not at any major track I know of. Rocajack hit the proverbial nail on the head with his description.


Dick


“Any ship can be a minesweeper... once." -Anon

[Figman]

We already had a pretty good discussion on morning lines here at PA.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=1726

[Valuist]

I notice you rarely see a horse below 8-5 in the morning line, even when the horse's merits are as obvious as that filly at Belmont yesterday. I agree w/Dick; and think of all the P3 money and early bird money that is wagered thinking that the 5-2 printed in the program is great value. Usually, NY has one of the better m/lines. But 5-2 on that monster yesterday????Thats ridiculous.

[JackS]

Live and learn. So does anyone know who actually makes the ML? I would think it must be a track employee or hired Pro with some proven ability. BTW, 90% of the members of this board would be qualified IMO. It can't be much different than making a home-made line on any other sport. The formula seems to range from 120-130% to account for the take.

[KingChas]

Sometimes the first couple flashes of the tote board will tell you more than the morning lines-Beware.

[trying2win]

The worst ML oddsmaker I've encountered, is the one at Charles
Town. This person sure must be lazy. If he/she makes the ML favorite at 5/2, typically the next two lowest won't be something like 7/2 and 4/1. Instead this person usually lumps the second and third ML favorite as the same number...i.e. 4/1 and 4/1.

The laziness continues onto their double-digit ML listings. Quite often this line maker at Charles Town, will list four of five horses at 10/1, then several at 15/1. Probably some should be listed at 20 or 25/1 on the line.

I don't recall this ML oddsmaker at Charles Town, ever listing a horse at 9/2 or 5/1 (maybe they have a phobia of those two numbers).

Since I use the ML as an estimate to make my bets ahead of time, I rely on a good set of ML odds. Fortunately, most tracks I play have fairly good ML makers. Of course there are some incompetent ML makers, such as at Charles Town.

T2W

"Money can't buy happiness. It just gives you more options.
--Kenny Rogers (country and pop music singer)

[Hosshead]

Originally posted by trying2win
The worst ML oddsmaker I've encountered, is the one at CharlesTown. This person sure must be lazy.
Agree on both counts. The guy at Charles Town is the worst I've ever seen.
Some days he makes 2 sets of odds. Puts 5 races in 1 set (all the horses in each race have the same set of odds). Then puts the remaining races with another set of odds, and all the horses in those races have the exact same "set" of odds.
The worst thing about it is, whoever is in charge at that track, doesn't care .

[cj]

Maybe its still former announcer Costy Caras? I actually did the line for him a couple of times when I was 16!

[The Hawk]

It is Costy. He uses two sets of odds tables and forces horses to fit into it whether they warrant it or not. The usual one starts with a 5/2 favorite, then a 7/2 2nd choice, then 2 horses at 4-1, etc. The other one he uses most frequently starts at 2-1, and he has a couple of others he uses when the favorite is going to be less than that, and it begins at 9/5. But the first two are used for 9 of the 10 races run there every night. It's a complete farce.

[Valuist]

This is very bizarre. I've seen some bad ml makers but the CT guy has to be the worst. Question: if he has 2 sets of pre-made up odds matrixes that he forces the horses into, what does he do when the field sizes vary? You can't assign the same odds in a 7 horse race that you do in a 12 horse field; the takeouts wouldn't add up. What does he do then?

[Hosshead]

Todays ML- Charles Town Entries before scratches:

Race 1 - 5/2, 3, 3, 8, 10, 10, 10, 10, 15
Race 2 - 5/2, 4, 4, 8, 10, 10, 10, 10, 15, 15
Race 3 - 5/2, 4, 4, 8, 10, 10, 10, 10, 15, 15
Race 5 - 5/2, 4, 4, 8, 10, 10, 10, 10, 15, 15
Race 6 - 5/2,7/2,7/2,8,10,10,10, 10, 15
Race 8 - 5/2,7/2,7/2,8,10,10,10, 15, 15, 15
Race 9 - 5/2,7/2,7/2,8,10,10,10, 10, 15
Race10- 2, 4, 4, 8,10,10,15, 15, 15, 15

[takeout]

Aren’t all morning lines a farce? Whether the intent is to predict how the public will bet or to stimulate betting, their usefulness to the player seems nil to me. Window-dressing at best.

[trying2win]

Takeout,

I find a good set of morning line odds helpful. I've read at this site, that I'm not the only one who uses the ML. Some of us horseplayers are quite satisfied in using the ML as a guide in deciding on whether to bet certain horses or not (albeit we're likely in the minority, but probably some ML users don't care what other bettors think we 'should", "ought to", or "have to" study last-minute toteboard odds). I know I'm not concerned of what other betting-line users' think of my use of the ML. I wish the betting-line users success at the races.

My reason is that when I'm betting several tracks at the same time, I can't be bothered worrying about last minute odds, or whether they'll drop once I make my bet, or even whether I'll get shut out when trying to make my bet. I like to send my bets in online, or on my TAB account well ahead of time. Less stress that way.

Is just using the ML as a guide better than studying the toteboard for last-minutes odds? Probably not, but I find it less stressful. Works okay for me. To each they're own.

T2W

"Some days at the track I'm dumbfounded. Other days I'm found dumb for some of the horses I bet on." -- T2W

[The Hawk]

Valuist:

Charles Town has 10 horse fields about 80% of the time. Otherwise, they'll have 9 horses. They never run more than 10, due to the size of the track.

The one thing that's important to realize about the Morning Line is that it does have an affect on the Pick 3's, as a lot of people apparently throw in the low-priced ML horses blindly. You can capitalize on this at Delaware Park (I can't believe no one has mentioned how bad that line is) if you can beat the ML favorites, even if they eventually go at low prices -- even if they're almost certainly going to be favored at post time, in some cases.

[BillW]

R6 at CT a 4-1 M/L horse just paid $38.00 ... seems like the betting public can be a farce there sometimes too. :D

[Turf2Dirt]

Morning Lines seem to heavily affect pick 3's, I know Mike Battaglia, churchill's line maker, bets $thousands per race, I'm not accusing him in paticular. but I wouldn't be surprised if some line makers use that influence to increase payouts on their picks.

[linrom1]

Here is my 2 cents on this issue. Morning lines are superior indicator of horses chances to win then are publics' picks, although, it also depends on what circuit one plays. I am often surprised how these guys can pick MSW winners going off at odds on with morning lines at 9/5 for first time starters. Where is this information coming from? That's often a clue that the horse has already shown some talent that usually only the backstretch guys pick up. This is a clear example how the odds maker is making an odds line rather then predicting what the public will do.

[linrom1]

Re: making an odds line for CT is probably an exercise of futility anyway, so why even bother.

[raybo]

I hardly pay any mind to the M/L odds until just before post time. Then, if the odds maker is decent and his M/L tends to be fair, I will compare the M/L with the near post time odds to look for unnatural movement. Many times this puts me onto a horse I would have otherwise ignored. I use it for the top of my superfecta tickets and also for the other rows too. The key is that there must not be an obvious reason for the horse's odds to drop him into contention for an "in the money" position. Try it sometime and see what you think. Remember there can't be an obvious reason for the downward movement, like top jockey or trainer, or 1st lasix, or a big class drop, etc. One other thing, the near post time odds must be between 3/1 and 8/1, and he must not have been in the top 4 M/L odds horses. So, if you see a horse drop into the top 4 near post time odds, check him out. If you are at a track that has lots of smart money in the pools this little angle doesn't work as well. 30% winners is the result of all instances that qualify as I've detailed and I can find a past race where he would have been competitive in today's race. Not bad if you hit enough at 4/1 or higher. This is a neat little trick for you value players. If there are 2 or more such horses in the same race, all bets are off. Try it out, it's better than betting on 8/5 favorites all the time.

[takeout]

Originally posted by BillW
R6 at CT a 4-1 M/L horse just paid$38.00
That's why I don't get it when it comes to morning lines. If the intent of the ML is to predict how the public will bet, then 4-1 certainly misses the mark on a $38 winner. If the intent was to spur betting activity on the horse, then the 4-1 obviously didn't to too well there either. But, if it had been a betting line instead of a ML then the horse would've been a big overlay and a winning bet. Costy's lines sometime seem like they're about half ML and half betting line.

[cj]

Originally posted by Turf2Dirt
Morning Lines seem to heavily affect pick 3's, I know Mike Battaglia, churchill's line maker, bets $thousands per race, I'm not accusing him in paticular. but I wouldn't be surprised if some line makers use that influence to increase payouts on their picks.

If this is true, I need to get in those pools. I've seen his handicapping on TV, and lets just say, I hope he makes a good salary!

[cj]

Originally posted by takeout
That's why I don't get it when it comes to morning lines. If the intent of the ML is to predict how the public will bet, then 4-1 certainly misses the mark on a $38 winner. If the intent was to spur betting activity on the horse, then the 4-1 obviously didn't to too well there either. But, if it had been a betting line instead of a ML then the horse would've been a big overlay and a winning bet. Costy's lines sometime seem like they're about half ML and half betting line.

This is what I was trying to tell you guys, he puts about 1 minute into a race. I was not kidding when I said I did the line for him a few times when I was 16!

You are talking about a guy who turned the mic off halfway through a 1 1/8 race at CT to watch Don Mattingly bat! May lightning strike me if that is not a true story. He gave it the old "Continue that way" and turned the mic off. He did come back in time to call the winner as he hit the wire.

[Zman179]

In my opinion, while the ML maker at Charles Town is dreadful, the absolute worst is at Hoosier Park (at least during their t-bred meet).

Never in the history of my betting life have I seen a ML so wrong. Countless times, I've seen 5/2 ML's go off at 20/1 and 20/1 ML's go off at 5/2. Earlier this year to give you an example, I hit a DD with ML's of 15/1 and 20/1....with no scratches and 10 horses in each race....that paid $22.

It's quite obvious that the bettors at HOO aren't fooled either by this dreadful piece of work.

[Hosshead]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
This is what I was trying to tell you guys, he puts about 1 minute into a race. I was not kidding when I said I did the line for him a few times when I was 16!

You are talking about a guy who turned the mic off halfway through a 1 1/8 race at CT to watch Don Mattingly bat! May lightning strike me if that is not a true story. He gave it the old "Continue that way" and turned the mic off. He did come back in time to call the winner as he hit the wire.
Unbelievable story CJ. How in the hell did you meet this guy at 16 and he let you do the ML? You had to do a better job than him, even at 16 !

[cj]

I'm from Baltimore, and we used to go to CT all the time. A friend of mine always wanted to be an announcer, and we just went up to the booth and started talking to him one day. After that, we hung out up there all the time.

I'm probably one of the few to say I miss the old place. I went back once when they had slots, and haven't been back since. That old place holds many, many memories for me.

In the 80s, the guy had an early 70s Buick that had like 12,000 miles on it! He said its not too far to the Bowling Alley and church.

A lot of people may not know, Costy was a NYRA back up announcer. He called plenty of big races in NY in his younger days.

[the little guy]

Originally posted by Turf2Dirt
Morning Lines seem to heavily affect pick 3's, I know Mike Battaglia, churchill's line maker, bets $thousands per race, I'm not accusing him in paticular. but I wouldn't be surprised if some line makers use that influence to increase payouts on their picks. This response is even insane for this thread.

My suggestion is that everyone read Steve Crist's column in Sunday's Racing Form, as it deals with this exact topic. Unfortunately I am unable to post the link, you either need the paper or have to be a subscriber at DRF.

[John]

Little Guy

There are some people on this board who know MARC at DRF. Maybe one of them can get MARC to release it to be posted. So we can all read it. Damm, Steve Crist's had to write that on a Sunday. Some of us have family that we spend with on Sunday.

PA, will get the Steve Crist's column in Sunday's Racing Form.

[Suff]

I read. the topics kind of juvenile...

How long does someone need to go to the racetrack to learn that ML's are an indicator of where the bettors will likley land?

I don't use ML's at all... I don't look at them.. Unless I'm playing pik3's. Many people just thow in the top 2 or 3 ML favorites on assumption..

When I get a 13.00 horse with a ML of 10-1... I know I'm in business for a decent payout....based on that fact...


The article says what any decent bettor should alread know....but perhaps with some new players in the game due to the recent Triple Crown publicity he was writing for them...



Who thinks a ML is a selection? or a "should run in this order"



I'
I've told people that want to be better handicappers... Handicap without ML's or selections, or the closer look or any comments,,

Just trust your instincts and yoru experience... write down your top 3 conbtenders... More often than not you will land on an animal that you would'nt of if you saw a ML of 15-1 or greater..or even 10-1 range,.. and more often than not... you'll get the run you saw on paper

[kenwoodallpromos]

Depends. I sometimes figure rough payoff on show; I know what horses are likely to be early speed and which may go even or less.
I always hope for a big overlay that the M/L maker missed.
I think a lot of bettors use the M/L to look for overlay and underlays, and the crowd often makes the M/L closer to than the closing odds that it should be on mid-range horses.
The longer the odds, the less time spent by the odssmaker on that horse. Some try to use horse Vs. horse results as part.
See book "A Day At The Races" interviews. Richard Somers still does all of northern Ca.

[Turf2Dirt]

Originally posted by Suff
I read. the topics kind of juvenile...

How long does someone need to go to the racetrack to learn that ML's are an indicator of where the bettors will likley land?

I don't use ML's at all... I don't look at them.. Unless I'm playing pik3's. Many people just thow in the top 2 or 3 ML favorites on assumption..

When I get a 13.00 horse with a ML of 10-1... I know I'm in business for a decent payout....based on that fact...


The article says what any decent bettor should alread know....but perhaps with some new players in the game due to the recent Triple Crown publicity he was writing for them...



Who thinks a ML is a selection? or a "should run in this order"



I'
I've told people that want to be better handicappers... Handicap without ML's or selections, or the closer look or any comments,,

Just trust your instincts and yoru experience... write down your top 3 conbtenders... More often than not you will land on an animal that you would'nt of if you saw a ML of 15-1 or greater..or even 10-1 range,.. and more often than not... you'll get the run you saw on paper

right thats what Im talking about, I've seen pick 3's that paid $500 on a 20-1 first time starter. that went off at 2-1 with a win parlay of about $100

[Turf2Dirt]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
If this is true, I need to get in those pools. I've seen his handicapping on TV, and lets just say, I hope he makes a good salary!

He also doesn't bet his public picks