Fast Pace/ Slow Pace Supers

[PowerUpPaynter]

Good day,

Do you try to make your super tickets based on what you think teh pace will be or do you make a few tickets for different paces?

[Robert Fischer]

Good day,

Do you try to make your super tickets based on what you think teh pace will be or do you make a few tickets for different paces?

I start with my opinion of the pace.

If I feel a pace is a certain way, I'll build for that , and only make an opposing pace style ticket if I feel a long shot can factor(using the LS as a key in a small ticket).

[SecretAgentMan]

IMO, this year we will see a moderate pace, I doubt we see another crazy burn pace like Danzig did in the SA derby.

A stalker should win this year, BUT if Danzig goes out in a lightening fast speed, it will burn up Nyquist & a few others & we may see a deep closer, but with how slow these horses are this year, I see a stalker winning.

[classhandicapper]

Sometimes when I'm not sure how a race in going to develop because it's dependent on what a particular horse/rider does, I will create a fast pace ticket and a slow pace ticket. Some horses may be common to both tickets and others are pace dependent.

Slow Pace

1, 2, 3, 4
1, 2, 4, 3
2, 1, 3, 4
2, 1, 4, 2


Fast Pace

1, 2, 5, 6
1, 2, 6, 5
2, 1, 5, 6
2, 1, 6, 5

Here what I am saying is that I like 1 and 2 no matter what the pace scenario, but I like the 3 and 4 for the slow pace scenario and the 5 and 6 in the other. I don't bother including combinations of 3/4 and 5/6 together.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Sometimes when I'm not sure how a race in going to develop because it's dependent on what a particular horse/rider does, I will create a fast pace ticket and a slow pace ticket. Some horses may be common to both tickets and others are pace dependent.

Slow Pace

1, 2, 3, 4
1, 2, 4, 3
2, 1, 3, 4
2, 1, 4, 2


Fast Pace

1, 2, 5, 6
1, 2, 6, 5
2, 1, 5, 6
2, 1, 6, 5

Here what I am saying is that I like 1 and 2 no matter what the pace scenario, but I like the 3 and 4 for the slow pace scenario and the 5 and 6 in the other. I don't bother including combinations of 3/4 and 5/6 together.

Three senarios:
A. 2 sent horses duel, finish 1-2.
B. 2 sent horses duel, 1 relents, finish 1-out.
C. 2 sent horses duel, both tire, finish out-out.

[raybo]

Good day,

Do you try to make your super tickets based on what you think teh pace will be or do you make a few tickets for different paces?

My base/main ticket starts as 1 w 2 w 4 w 4, but will adjust according to my perception of the contentiousness of the field, the size of the field, how many win contenders I have, and how large I think the pool will be. So, I will build outward from that base ticket as the circumstances of the race demand, and what the pool and field size will allow.

I start out by handicapping for the win contenders. Then I take those contenders and analyze what kind of pace would advantage each, and which horses would likely provide that advantage for each. From that analysis I try to decide which race shape is more likely to happen (a basic mental probabilities calculation). That determines the structure of my "main" ticket (usually a smallish "go for it" type ticket with a higher base bet).

If it looks like the shape will favor speed, then at least the top speed horse will be on top, the 2nd and/or 3rd speed (if they exist) or the top and 2nd presser (if they exist) or the top and 2nd closer, will go on the place line (as I said, it depends on the running style makeup of the field). I repeat the place horses on the show and 4th lines, adding horses by running style and overall ability. I try to cover, at least, half the field on the show and 4th lines, plus ties.

For race shapes that favor pressers or closers, I flip the structure with the pressers or closers towards the top of the ticket rather than speed.

So, yes, I use perceived race shape to form the structure of my main ticket.

Then, if the contentiousness, field size, and expected pool size allows, I will structure a much larger "saver" ticket, of a lower base bet amount, that mixes more running styles on each line. This ticket is not a "go for it" ticket, it is simply my way of smoothing the win/loss fluctuations, long term. These saver tickets hit at a much higher rate than my main tickets, which only hit in the 8-9% range, long term.

All of this superfecta stuff, of course, comes after I have decided if the race is worth betting, in the first place. I pass a lot of races, even for win play, and many more than that, for superfecta play.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Race shape is always confusing for me. Could someone please give me a clear, concise, correct, and complete definition of what race shape is?

[PowerUpPaynter]

My base/main ticket starts as 1 w 2 w 4 w 4, but will adjust according to my perception of the contentiousness of the field, the size of the field, how many win contenders I have, and how large I think the pool will be. So, I will build outward from that base ticket as the circumstances of the race demand, and what the pool and field size will allow.

I start out by handicapping for the win contenders. Then I take those contenders and analyze what kind of pace would advantage each, and which horses would likely provide that advantage for each. From that analysis I try to decide which race shape is more likely to happen (a basic mental probabilities calculation). That determines the structure of my "main" ticket (usually a smallish "go for it" type ticket with a higher base bet).

If it looks like the shape will favor speed, then at least the top speed horse will be on top, the 2nd and/or 3rd speed (if they exist) or the top and 2nd presser (if they exist) or the top and 2nd closer, will go on the place line (as I said, it depends on the running style makeup of the field). I repeat the place horses on the show and 4th lines, adding horses by running style and overall ability. I try to cover, at least, half the field on the show and 4th lines, plus ties.

For race shapes that favor pressers or closers, I flip the structure with the pressers or closers towards the top of the ticket rather than speed.

So, yes, I use perceived race shape to form the structure of my main ticket.

Then, if the contentiousness, field size, and expected pool size allows, I will structure a much larger "saver" ticket, of a lower base bet amount, that mixes more running styles on each line. This ticket is not a "go for it" ticket, it is simply my way of smoothing the win/loss fluctuations, long term. These saver tickets hit at a much higher rate than my main tickets, which only hit in the 8-9% range, long term.

All of this superfecta stuff, of course, comes after I have decided if the race is worth betting, in the first place. I pass a lot of races, even for win play, and many more than that, for superfecta play.


1 horse over 2 horses over 4 horses over 4 horses is only a 12 dollar super - thats a good bet. i like that.

[raybo]

1 horse over 2 horses over 4 horses over 4 horses is only a 12 dollar super - thats a good bet. i like that.

I once had a crude database in Excel, in which I ran a bunch of cards/races through my programmed handicapping method at the time. Several superfecta ticket structures were automatically populated and compared to the results of all those races. The 1 w 2 w 4 w 4 structure had the best "combination" (for me) of hit rate, ROI, and profit, so I've been using that as my base structure ever since.

[raybo]

Race shape is always confusing for me. Could someone please give me a clear, concise, correct, and complete definition of what race shape is?

I'll bet you can do that yourself, and probably explain it as well as anyone else here.

[VigorsTheGrey]

I'll bet you can do that yourself, and probably explain it as well as anyone else here.
My idea of race shape was formed before I read anything on it...I only assumed that I knew what it was...and so I'm likely to be very wrong on this one.....my conception of it involves what I call the birds eye view or drone view...what does the shape of the field look like from the air? Is it strung out like a line? Shaped like a pyramid? An hourglass? Does it have a logical shape of early, early/pressers, pressers, and then sustained runners? Does it have a chaotic shape, mumbo jumbo?

When is race shape measured? Race shape at what call. Race shape prior to the opening of the gate? How is race shape related to race flow?