Derby Pace Pars, Sloppy Preps, and Danzing Candy

[maddog42]

In past Derby years I have posted so called Derby Pace Pars. They have been moderately successful. Ok, barely relevant. They will only cut the field in half, so maybe you are having success without them. I haven't seen an entry list so I will be including horses that may not run.
In the past 25 years horses that have competed well (within 3.5 lengths of the winner) against a pace run at 71.25 seconds or better, have won 22 of 25 Derby's. One of those exceptions was War Emblem who ran his best races on a bullring at Sportsmans. He also ran a 112 Beyer. Another exception was Animal Kingdom coming from a synthetic track. But even he ran well against against a 70.94 turf pace.
Many horses this year are on the cusp of this 71.25 dividing line, so I have tightened it up a bit. These horses will qualify on a sub 71 second, second call good race.

Discreetness
Whitmore
Dazzling Gem
Creator
Suddenbreakingnews
Danzing Candy
Exaggerator

I eliminated Shagaf because he ran his 3back and only ran a 90 Bris rating.

Horses on the cusp but still qualify are:

Mor Spirit
Mohaymen
Mo Tom

and Laoban ran his 4 back against maidens and he still finished second.
Gun Runner missed the cut by .08 second, so use your own judgment there.

I hope this helps in your handicapping.

Danzing Candy is the most intriguing of these horses. He didn't like the slop in that last race. I don't think a horse has ever gotten beat 13 lengths in the race previous to the Derby and still won. Not lately anyhow. A good horse to put in the 2nd and 3rd hole.

[Ruffian1]

In past Derby years I have posted so called Derby Pace Pars. They have been moderately successful. Ok, barely relevant. They will only cut the field in half, so maybe you are having success without them. I haven't seen an entry list so I will be including horses that may not run.
In the past 25 years horses that have competed well (within 3.5 lengths of the winner) against a pace run at 71.25 seconds or better, have won 22 of 25 Derby's. One of those exceptions was War Emblem who ran his best races on a bullring at Sportsmans. He also ran a 112 Beyer. Another exception was Animal Kingdom coming from a synthetic track. But even he ran well against against a 70.94 turf pace.
Many horses this year are on the cusp of this 71.25 dividing line, so I have tightened it up a bit. These horses will qualify on a sub 71 second, second call good race.

Discreetness
Whitmore
Dazzling Gem
Creator
Suddenbreakingnews
Danzing Candy
Exaggerator

I eliminated Shagaf because he ran his 3back and only ran a 90 Bris rating.

Horses on the cusp but still qualify are:

Mor Spirit
Mohaymen
Mo Tom

and Laoban ran his 4 back against maidens and he still finished second.
Gun Runner missed the cut by .08 second, so use your own judgment there.

I hope this helps in your handicapping.

Danzing Candy is the most intriguing of these horses. He didn't like the slop in that last race. I don't think a horse has ever gotten beat 13 lengths in the race previous to the Derby and still won. Not lately anyhow. A good horse to put in the 2nd and 3rd hole.

I went back and watched every replay of Danzing Candy except his 1st race. Every race, and I mean every, he was cool, calm and collected. All very professional, all relaxed. The horse had a full understanding of how to relax , rate, and respond when asked. All except his last race.

Why?
Well, without having full knowledge it was very obvious IMO that the horse was all worked up and quite upset as he was loaded into the gate. What got him so fired up?
I don't know. Doubt it was just the mud though.
He reared up while in the gate waiting to break and when he broke, he basically was unwilling to rate or be professional as he had previously been.
I read the didn't like the mud stuff and maybe that is right but for my money, there is something else that got him all fired up. He fought Smith until 1/2 way down the backside and was out of gas by the time he hit the 3/8ths pole.
So the way I see it, if something set him off in the paddock or wherever, and that can be avoided this time, he has a major shot. That won't be easy on Derby day.
I suggest keeping a close eye on him getting saddled and as they blow the horn and early in the post parade.
At 40-1 or whatever, he is a steal IF he reverts back to his professional appearances. That's a big IF, but 30-1 or 40-1 is also big.
Thought I would pass this info along for anyone that cares to listen.
Best of luck Derby day.

[Secondbest]

If NBC was smart they would hire Maggie to tell us this stuff. Watching on TV it would be hard for most of us to pick up.
Thanks for the info on DC much appreciated

[Secondbest]

Maddog
In this race this year everything helps.Thanks

[Ruffian1]

If NBC was smart they would hire Maggie to tell us this stuff. Watching on TV it would be hard for most of us to pick up.
Thanks for the info on DC much appreciated

I've had the pleasure of knowing Maggie since birth. What a tremendous asset to racing and fans she has turned out to be.

I can't agree more with your comments.:ThmbUp:

Good luck on Derby day.

[Fager Fan]

[/b]

I went back and watched every replay of Danzing Candy except his 1st race. Every race, and I mean every, he was cool, calm and collected. All very professional, all relaxed. The horse had a full understanding of how to relax , rate, and respond when asked. All except his last race.

Why?
Well, without having full knowledge it was very obvious IMO that the horse was all worked up and quite upset as he was loaded into the gate. What got him so fired up?
I don't know. Doubt it was just the mud though.
He reared up while in the gate waiting to break and when he broke, he basically was unwilling to rate or be professional as he had previously been.
I read the didn't like the mud stuff and maybe that is right but for my money, there is something else that got him all fired up. He fought Smith until 1/2 way down the backside and was out of gas by the time he hit the 3/8ths pole.
So the way I see it, if something set him off in the paddock or wherever, and that can be avoided this time, he has a major shot. That won't be easy on Derby day.
I suggest keeping a close eye on him getting saddled and as they blow the horn and early in the post parade.
At 40-1 or whatever, he is a steal IF he reverts back to his professional appearances. That's a big IF, but 30-1 or 40-1 is also big.
Thought I would pass this info along for anyone that cares to listen.
Best of luck Derby day.

I may be able to help you here. We were there for his last race. The morning prior to his race, he was being schooled in the paddock. He was one unhappy horse. From people who have seen many a horse, we'd never seen a horse act so unhappy with his ears flat back the entire time. It was part of our discussion the next day. So what happened with this unhappy horse? He's a runoff. The plausible explanation is that the horse was unhappy in the paddock because he had too much pent up energy and wasn't being allowed to get rid of some of that energy. He may have needed a short blowout before that race.

I hope to hear firsthand reports of this horse in the days leading up to the race. If he is happy and relaxed then I'm betting him. I Feel sure it wasn't the mud or the crowd that got him that day. I think it was pent up energy that got him.

[Ruffian1]

I may be able to help you here. We were there for his last race. The morning prior to his race, he was being schooled in the paddock. He was one unhappy horse. From people who have seen many a horse, we'd never seen a horse act so unhappy with his ears flat back the entire time. It was part of our discussion the next day. So what happened with this unhappy horse? He's a runoff. The plausible explanation is that the horse was unhappy in the paddock because he had too much pent up energy and wasn't being allowed to get rid of some of that energy. He may have needed a short blowout before that race.

I hope to hear firsthand reports of this horse in the days leading up to the race. If he is happy and relaxed then I'm betting him. I Feel sure it wasn't the mud or the crowd that got him that day. I think it was pent up energy that got him.

What a fantastic piece of info. Thank you very much!!
I was confident that it was not the mud or the other speed that made him run himself into the ground.
I cannot say how he was in the paddock in those prior relaxed performances but have to think he was more relaxed.
It is no easy task staying cool and calm in the Derby paddock and the crowd going nuts when the horn blows can't help .
Both his works since have been faster than the trainer wanted. Of course, the knee jerk reaction is that the horse is just running off but you are right. Until we get an in depth answer as to HOW he worked and ears pricking like his prior races, except his last, we won't know.
I know it's if,if,if but... if this horse has his head screwed on come Derby day and gets a relaxed 1/2 in 48, which is doable in the right setting, the race will be over IMO.

Thanks again for the detail. Really appreciate it.:ThmbUp:

[SecretAgentMan]

I may be able to help you here. We were there for his last race. The morning prior to his race, he was being schooled in the paddock. He was one unhappy horse. From people who have seen many a horse, we'd never seen a horse act so unhappy with his ears flat back the entire time. It was part of our discussion the next day. So what happened with this unhappy horse? He's a runoff. The plausible explanation is that the horse was unhappy in the paddock because he had too much pent up energy and wasn't being allowed to get rid of some of that energy. He may have needed a short blowout before that race.

I hope to hear firsthand reports of this horse in the days leading up to the race. If he is happy and relaxed then I'm betting him. I Feel sure it wasn't the mud or the crowd that got him that day. I think it was pent up energy that got him.


Yes, good info. But when a horse has this pent up.energy, it tells me the horse & the trainer arent on the same page, & is a toss for me on the win spot. You can't have these hiccups weeks before the derby.

[bks]

Great info, thx.

[/b]

I went back and watched every replay of Danzing Candy except his 1st race. Every race, and I mean every, he was cool, calm and collected. All very professional, all relaxed. The horse had a full understanding of how to relax , rate, and respond when asked. All except his last race.

Why?
Well, without having full knowledge it was very obvious IMO that the horse was all worked up and quite upset as he was loaded into the gate. What got him so fired up?
I don't know. Doubt it was just the mud though.
He reared up while in the gate waiting to break and when he broke, he basically was unwilling to rate or be professional as he had previously been.
I read the didn't like the mud stuff and maybe that is right but for my money, there is something else that got him all fired up. He fought Smith until 1/2 way down the backside and was out of gas by the time he hit the 3/8ths pole.
So the way I see it, if something set him off in the paddock or wherever, and that can be avoided this time, he has a major shot. That won't be easy on Derby day.
I suggest keeping a close eye on him getting saddled and as they blow the horn and early in the post parade.
At 40-1 or whatever, he is a steal IF he reverts back to his professional appearances. That's a big IF, but 30-1 or 40-1 is also big.
Thought I would pass this info along for anyone that cares to listen.
Best of luck Derby day.

Danzing Candy has a triple digit Beyer, and beat both exaggerator and Mor Spirit. He won't be anywhere near 40-1. 15-1 to 18-1 is more likely, and very enticing.

[SecretAgentMan]

Great info, thx.



Danzing Candy has a triple digit Beyer, and beat both exaggerator and Mor Spirit. He won't be anywhere near 40-1. 15-1 to 18-1 is more likely, and very enticing.



Danzig Candy may be as high as 30-1. Its fresh in everyone's mind what he did in the SA derby.

[bks]

Danzig Candy may be as high as 30-1. Its fresh in everyone's mind what he did in the SA derby.

The Santa Anita Derby was run in the rain on a heavy track. The horse won the San Felipe withe a 100 Beyer. He has very little chance to be above 18-1.

But please, let him be 30-1.

[SecretAgentMan]

The Santa Anita Derby was run in the rain on a heavy track. The horse won the San Felipe withe a 100 Beyer. He has very little chance to be above 18-1.

But please, let him be 30-1.



He's around 43-1 right now offshore

[AirNate012]

I agree with your thoughts on Danzing Candy...I guarantee he will be 25/1+ at post...Definitely need to watch him and see how he acts. :ThmbUp:

[ArlJim78]

Don't think DC has any chance to wire the derby.
Everyone pointing to the San Felipe neglects to mention it was a six horse field, and he had an inside post and a big early speed advantage over that field. Yet to my eye even with those advantages he was not all that relaxed or dominant coming for home, having to be worked on by the rider, and Mor Spirit was in an easy gallop gaining ground on him all the way to the wire. Imo his derby will look a lot like the SA derby and not much like the San Felipe.

[HPFridays]

Don't think DC has any chance to wire the derby.
Everyone pointing to the San Felipe neglects to mention it was a six horse field, and he had an inside post and a big early speed advantage over that field. Yet to my eye even with those advantages he was not all that relaxed or dominant coming for home, having to be worked on by the rider, and Mor Spirit was in an easy gallop gaining ground on him all the way to the wire. Imo his derby will look a lot like the SA derby and not much like the San Felipe.

Good points, Jim, I agree.

[SecretAgentMan]

Don't think DC has any chance to wire the derby.
Everyone pointing to the San Felipe neglects to mention it was a six horse field, and he had an inside post and a big early speed advantage over that field. Yet to my eye even with those advantages he was not all that relaxed or dominant coming for home, having to be worked on by the rider, and Mor Spirit was in an easy gallop gaining ground on him all the way to the wire. Imo his derby will look a lot like the SA derby and not much like the San Felipe.




Yup, I agree!

[clocker7]

Don't think DC has any chance to wire the derby.
Everyone pointing to the San Felipe neglects to mention it was a six horse field, and he had an inside post and a big early speed advantage over that field. Yet to my eye even with those advantages he was not all that relaxed or dominant coming for home, having to be worked on by the rider, and Mor Spirit was in an easy gallop gaining ground on him all the way to the wire. Imo his derby will look a lot like the SA derby and not much like the San Felipe.
DC was a little naughty in the gate at the San Felipe and ran the first half+ with his head raised.

Too unprofessional at this stage of his career.

[depalma113]

Don't think DC has any chance to wire the derby.
Everyone pointing to the San Felipe neglects to mention it was a six horse field, and he had an inside post and a big early speed advantage over that field. Yet to my eye even with those advantages he was not all that relaxed or dominant coming for home, having to be worked on by the rider, and Mor Spirit was in an easy gallop gaining ground on him all the way to the wire. Imo his derby will look a lot like the SA derby and not much like the San Felipe.

The size of the field is meaningless for Danzig Candy. He's going to the lead.

[Robert Fischer]

1. If Danzing Candy can run his San Felipe back in terms of numbers - he's the Derby winner.

2. Danzing Candy's Santa Anita Derby was such a hot pace that you can draw a line through it.

The reality is that 10 furlongs in the Derby is a lot different that 8.5 furlongs at home.
You can't just extrapolate that.

My gut says that Danzing Candy is not up to the class level of the top contenders. I feel that he would need to slow the pace down, and save horse into both turns. That's highly unlikely, given both his form and the fact that it's the Derby(19 other hungry horses and jocks).

He's got a puncher's chance to wire the field. His chances aren't the worst in the field. At least he probably has the lead early and get's to go as far as he can.

He's got a puncher's chance to run 2nd. If he gets a great trip on the lead, he could pull a Bodemeister.

He's got a chance to run 3rd or 4th and that may be the most reasonable placing, for the scenarios that you have with moderate paces.

[ArlJim78]

The size of the field is meaningless for Danzig Candy. He's going to the lead.
So field size he can handle but a sloppy track is too much?
Sloppy is usually the excuse for the chasers not the front runners.
The size of the field is always relevant.
He may indeed go for the lead but he'll expend more energy to get it in the derby and likely once again go at a pace he cannot sustain.

[depalma113]

So field size he can handle but a sloppy track is too much?
Sloppy is usually the excuse for the chasers not the front runners.
The size of the field is always relevant.
He may indeed go for the lead but he'll expend more energy to get it in the derby and likely once again go at a pace he cannot sustain.

He is not going to have to expend more energy to get the lead. He is just faster than all the other horses in the race except Outwork. Outwork is not going to the lead, his work showed that.

He will get the lead much easier in the Kentucky Derby, than he did in the Santa Anita Derby.

The size of the field is meaningless.

If he spits the bit it is because he is distance limited. It is not going to be because there are 18 or 19 horses traveling behind him.

[SecretAgentMan]

I will be very surprised to see Danzig Candy wire the field! I want DC to do nothing but burn Nyquist out!

[yankeelpn]

Outwork in the top 4, training great and looks awesome
1. Nyquist
2. Outwork
3. Mor Spirit
4. Whitmore/SBN

[Nitro]

I will be very surprised to see Danzig Candy wire the field! I want DC to do nothing but burn Nyquist out!That's just wishful thinking I'm afraid!

So, in other words you think that Danzig Candy has just been entered in the KY Derby as simply a ”Rabbit” to burn others up :confused:
Well if that’s true then both DC and Outwork are history and you can forget about Nyquist being anywhere near them if they run faster then a 47 half mile. I have to give Doug O’Neal a little more credit then assuming that he would be foolish enough to instruct Gutierrez to gun Nyquist and try to wire them. Nyquist has already proven his versatility. :ThmbUp:

However, as it’s already been pointed out Outwork may not even go with DC either. Then Watch Out :eek: if DC’s alone on the front-end after a ½ mile in more than 47 sec!
.

[SecretAgentMan]

That's just wishful thinking I'm afraid!

So, in other words you think that Danzig Candy has just been entered in the KY Derby as simply a ”Rabbit” to burn others up :confused:
Well if that’s true then both DC and Outwork are history and you can forget about Nyquist being anywhere near them if they run faster then a 47 half mile. I have to give Doug O’Neal a little more credit then assuming that he would be foolish enough to instruct Gutierrez to gun Nyquist and try to wire them. Nyquist has already proven his versatility. :ThmbUp:

However, as it’s already been pointed out Outwork may not even go with DC either. Then Watch Out :eek: if DC’s alone on the front-end after a ½ mile in more than 47 sec!
.



I never stated DC is in the derby as a rabbit, they're all trying to win the race. I said I hope he burns Nyquist out by putting up blazing numbers. If DC goes out with moderate numbers, Nyquist will bury him! DC will NOT get away with the slow fractions he did in the San Felipe.

Also, Nyquist doesn't want any horses in front of him after a mile or so. Nyquist will be up close to DC IMO.

[classhandicapper]

Nyquist has Grade 1 sprint speed. If he gets involved early or even in the middle, it's gong to take quite a horse to put him away and hold off the cavalry charge late at 10F.

Unless he break slowly, has some trouble, or is deliberately rated a few lengths behind the other quality speeds until later in the race, he's going to be a problem for someone. One the flip side, the other speeds are no slouches either. So Nyquist will probably have to work pretty hard at some point also.

That's one reason I'm leaning towards some of the mid pack closers.

I think Nyquist has been underrated by many speed handicappers since last year, but I don't love him at 10F as the favorite with other speeds in the race.

[f2tornado]

Let's see what post he draws first. If he pulls the auxiliary gate he will have a tough time. I he pulls around post 6 he could have a nice lead out of the gate. I think he has to pull a Bodemeister to have any chance but I don't think he's as good as Bodemeister.

[Nitro]

I never stated DC is in the derby as a rabbit, they're all trying to win the race. I said I hope he burns Nyquist out by putting up blazing numbers. If DC goes out with moderate numbers, Nyquist will bury him! DC will NOT get away with the slow fractions he did in the San Felipe.

Also, Nyquist doesn't want any horses in front of him after a mile or so. Nyquist will be up close to DC IMO.Yes, we all know that DC going for the lead. But I don’t follow your logic!

No.1 You seem to be assuming that DC is going set early suicide fractions whether challenged or not. (Not necessarily!)
No.2 You also seem to be assuming that even if the fractions are real fast that Nyquist will be running right along with DC. (Will not happen!)
No.3 You’re also assuming that if the early fractions are mediocre that DC will have nothing left in tank beyond a mile. (Already proven otherwise!)
Yes, if Nyquist runs its best race there’s good chance DC will get run down, but not since Giacomo’s Derby prep races have I seen a better Racing Workout then DC’s in the SA Derby.
And guess who was riding Giacomo?

I could go on and on about the potential race profiles in this Derby, but my thinking right now is that if they run slower then 1-11 & change for ¾’s that the Closers are in trouble. But trouble or not there are just too many Closers in this race. They will at some point be ALL be vying for position for a final run. That leads me to believe that even the best of them will find it very cumbersome trying to get a clear run for the money.
.

[reckless]

Save yourself some time and aggravation and just look at the following races: Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby and Florida Derby in search of the winning horse on Saturday.

The Kentucky Derby winner will only come out of any of those five races. Find the right horse using your very own methods and good handicapping.

If you must play gimmicks, and who doesn't, than any of the 'better' horses from the rest of the contenders are capable of running in the money. They are just not win contenders as I see it from my perch.

Good luck to everyone!

[Secondbest]

Yes, we all know that DC going for the lead. But I don’t follow your logic!

No.1 You seem to be assuming that DC is going set early suicide fractions whether challenged or not. (Not necessarily!)
No.2 You also seem to be assuming that even if the fractions are real fast that Nyquist will be running right along with DC. (Will not happen!)
No.3 You’re also assuming that if the early fractions are mediocre that DC will have nothing left in tank beyond a mile. (Already proven otherwise!)
Yes, if Nyquist runs its best race there’s good chance DC will get run down, but not since Giacomo’s Derby prep races have I seen a better Racing Workout then DC’s in the SA Derby.
And guess who was riding Giacomo?

I could go on and on about the potential race profiles in this Derby, but my thinking right now is that if they run slower then 1-11 & change for ¾’s that the Closers are in trouble. But trouble or not there are just too many Closers in this race. They will at some point be ALL be vying for position for a final run. That leads me to believe that even the best of them will find it very cumbersome trying to get a clear run for the money.
.
I agree. By the top of the stretch the closers Will be closing but the mid pack and a few pressers Will be fading.Tons of trouble ahead.So far I think the horses who get good early position Will be The ones at the end.Am looking at all the replays to figure the best 6 or so gate horses who like to be fairly clóse.

[VigorsTheGrey]

I just got through watching the history of the Kentucky Derby from when Citation won it on TVG...What did I notice?

Time and Time again, the derby was won by an early/ presser that used gate speed to move into the 3 path entering the clubhouse turn within 2 lengths of the lead, then was no further back than 2-5 lengths back still in the 3 path and in 3rd to 6th place max...then making the move entering the 2nd turn to be within 2 lengths of the lead at the top of the stretch then passing the two front runners moving steadily and surely to the wire....with few exceptions THIS IS HOW the Derby is won over the years....

....find the horses that can match this pattern and 9 out of ten times you'll have your winner!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I just got through watching the history of the Kentucky Derby from when Citation won it on TVG...What did I notice?

Time and Time again, the derby was won by an early/ presser that used gate speed to move into the 3 path entering the clubhouse turn within 2 lengths of the lead, then was no further back than 2-5 lengths back still in the 3 path and in 3rd to 6th place max...then making the move entering the 2nd turn to be within 2 lengths of the lead at the top of the stretch then passing the two front runners moving steadily and surely to the wire....with few exceptions THIS IS HOW the Derby is won over the years....

....find the horses that can match this pattern and 9 out of ten times you'll have your winner!

6 of the last 11 winners don't follow the "this is how the Derby is won" racing pattern.

Orb, I'll Have Another, Animal Kingdom, Street Sense, Mine That Bird, and Giacomo all launched from further back; most from much further back.

Has the new Derby points system removed wicked paces from the Derby equation? Maybe. Then again, in the 1st year of the points system Palace Malice (with blinkers) and with veteran Mike Smith on board, blitzed out to :45 and change and a ridiculous 1:09 and change. It was such a brutal pace that it sucked in the 1st run horses like Normandy's Invasion while the complete back end of the field made up the Trifecta.

[boys at tosconova]

yes..the danzing candy express...speed and prolly cheap speed....this is usually my kind of a horse. and lets lets face it, this isn't ocho ocho ocho or balto star.

but sadly...the derby just isn't kind to these types of runners..but there's hope and the san felipe to go on....

[Huddy Goodjob]

Yes, good info. But when a horse has this pent up.energy, it tells me the horse & the trainer arent on the same page, & is a toss for me on the win spot. You can't have these hiccups weeks before the derby.

No horse who has a swing, up or down, in Bris speed figs of 10 points or more in their last is a toss for the win spot.

But Danzing can def hold for second.