HONG KONG - ShaTin - Sun 5/1 Live

[Nitro]

It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with 11 big races and nice size fields in almost every one.

Post Time Race #1 – 12:30 AM SUN. EST

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) :ThmbUp:
http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

GL if you’re playing & feel free to join in !

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In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with 2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) total Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

This same structure can be used with the Quinella/Place bet which means if either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money (1st, 2nd or 3rd) with them you can potentially hit on (3) Q/P bets. They generally don't pay as much unless a big LS shows up in the money.

Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive, but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this same structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 total Bets, but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both K's are in the money.

Good Luck!

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong for May 1st at Sha Tin.
Weather report: 77 degrees Partly Cloudy wind: east 14 mph.
Post time: 12.30pm ET 9.30pm PT Rail: Course ‘B’, track listed: Good
Feature: Race 7 The Chairman’s Sprint Prize $ 1.29 million US and Race 8 The Champion’s Mile $ 1.8 million US
Total purses: $ 4,247,126 US

Links to past performances:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20160501_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html

Vulnerable favourites:
None

Horses coming out of key races (multiple winners that have come back out of those races and won at or higher class than today's class).
Race 3 :1: Best Hope (24-1) Race 439 the 2nd, 5th and 7th place runners came back and won.
Race 3 :11: Wingold (8-1) the winner, 3rd and 10th place finishers won from race 493.
Race 5 :13: Golden Cannon(65-1) Race 510 the 5th and 7th finishers won.
Race 6 :8: Socket King (4-1) Also exits out of race 510
Race 7 :2: Aerovelocity (5-1) the 4th and 7th of the Centenary Sprint Cup won next out.
Race 9 :2: Helene Paragon (5-2) the top finishers both won out of race 498, the winner Werther came back and won the QEII last week impressively.
Race 11 :1: Shamal (49-1) Top 3 finishers out of race 517 have won, the winner going up to Class 2.

The forecast is not for rain, but if the track does receive some and the turf course is downgraded to yielding, horses that have proven to run well on a yielding or soft track:
Race 2 :3: King Bountiful (4-1)
Race 6 :4: Tango Fire (14-1) and :9: Multiexpress(6-1)
Race 9 :6: Cheeky Too (8-1) and :9: Righteous (20-1)
Race 10 :7: Ho In One (14-1)

Horses off my watch list (with links for the replays):
Race 4 :8: Full Glory (6-1) Race 513 #9 barrier 10, from near the 300M until approaching the 100M was badly held up for clear running. http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/video/play.asp?type=replay-full&date=20160328&no=06&lang=eng

Race 6 :10: Smiling Glory (11-1) Race 550 #10 barrier 10, Acted up in the gate before the race, raced handy on the outer fence, 2-1/4L off the pace, kept going and finished off well for 3rd on a yielding track. http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/video/play.asp?type=replay-full&date=20160410&no=06&lang=eng

Race 6 :11: Namjong Invincible (5-1) Race 504 #7 barrier 3, was bet down to 9-2 in his debut, began only fairly and shortly after the start was steadied and lost ground when crowded for room. http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/video/play.asp?type=replay-full&date=20160323&no=05&lang=eng

Race 8 :2: Contentment (9-1) Race 533 #3 barrier 4, in the early part of the Straight remained held up for clear running after being held up and unable to improve for some distance approaching and rounding the Home Turn. http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/video/play.asp?type=replay-full&date=20160403&no=07&lang=eng

Race 9 :4: Apollo’s Choice (8-1) Race 461 #8 barrier 8, as the start was effected lifted its front feet off the ground and consequently began only fairly. After that was crowded for room and lost further ground. At the entrance to the straight bumped another runner when shifted out into clear running. http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/video/play.asp?type=replay-full&date=20160306&no=09&lang=eng

Race 11 :4: Green Card (4-1) Race 572 #8 barrier 3, began only fairly, pushed along to hold its position in 5th 3Ls off the pace, kept up the chase on leaders in straight, went 3rd 150M, held towards the line. http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/video/play.asp?type=replay-full&date=20160416&no=08&lang=eng

Race 11 :5: Goal For Gold (10-1) Race 569 #5 barrier 3, began OK but beaten for early speed, dropping to rear. Checked passing 880m, stayed on rail around turn, kept on solidly in straight. http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/video/play.asp?type=replay-full&date=20160416&no=05&lang=eng

Longshots:
Race 3 :2: Mofit (17-1)
Race 6 :4: Tango Fire (14-1)

My Key Plays of the day:
Race 3 :3: Ah Bo (7-2)
Race 6 :10: Smiling Glory (11-1)
Race 9 :4: Apollo’s Choice (8-1)

[Nitro]

Another nice write up there Woody! Looks like you're ready to go!

Good luck this morning!

[woodbinepmi]

Cheers Nitro, hopefully more people will get on the band wagon here with this circuit. It offers everything that you would want in a racing circuit. No drugs, large fields, large pools, the top riders in the world and no games being played out there.

Race 1 Griffin (Youngsters) 1000 Metres

Can't take the price on the :1: (2-5) at the moment that did win for fun while racing very greenly, will take (5-1) on :2: Arm Runda a John Size 2nd time starter that caught a yielding track in his debut against the big favourite and keeps Moreira for the mount. :5: Might have leaned his way, but just can't bet Ferraris.
:2: / :1: :5:

[Nitro]

I agree 100% Woody. Its like a BC every weekend. HK has spoiled me.

R#1 – 1-5 W/ 2-7

[Nitro]

I agree 100% Woody. Its like a BC every weekend. HK has spoiled me.

R#1 – 1-5 W/ 2-7
Nice call on the TRI Woody!
Results

R# 1 = 5-1-2-6 - WIN – QUIN – TRI

$2.00 WIN – 5 - $11.70
$2.00 QUINELLA – 1-5 - $4.40
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 5-1-2 – $56.60

[woodbinepmi]

Race 2 Class 5 2200 Metres (1 mile and 3/8th)

Don't seriously play these class of races unless they are 1000 or 1200 metres at Happy Valley, and this ain't Happy Valley and this isn't a sprint.
Put $2 on the :14: Viva Guy (46-1) light weight and breaking on the rail.

[Nitro]

R# 2 - 3-9 W/ 6-1-5-8

[woodbinepmi]

That's a tough beat for a couple dollars, lose by 3/4 of a length and run 6th at 58-1! The worse part, I was between the 4 and the 14 and went with 14 because of the barrier draw and the weight allowance. Oh, well.

[Nitro]

That's a tough beat for a couple dollars, lose by 3/4 of a length and run 6th at 58-1! The worse part, I was between the 4 and the 14 and went with 14 because of the barrier draw and the weight allowance. Oh, well.
You definitely got a solid run for your money!
I thought I had a good Quinella chance with #8 Win Chance & #3

[Nitro]

R# 2 - 3-9 W/ 6-1-5-8
Results

R# 2 = 3/4-12-6 - WIN in DH – No clues on the other BIG LS Winner

$2.00 WIN – 3 - $3.00

[woodbinepmi]

Race 3 Class 4 1400 Metres
:3: Ah Bo the first of my key plays of the day, draws the rail and keeps Moreira for the mount, was blocked and closed well when room became available just to miss against the favourite winner. Over :2: Motif (19-1) got a bad draw, but may help him, refused to split on the rail in his last race. :5: :8: , and for third :1: Comes out of a race with 3 winners but was on the vet list, :11: also out of a key race and the :9:
:3: / :2: :5: :8: / :1: :11: :9:

[Nitro]

R# 3 - 3-13 W/ 11-9-6-14

[kevb]

Race 3:
:7: bet down to 4:1 in debut.

Running line: "horse showed good speed in the early stages as it had done in its barrier trials leading up to the race. He said it travelled strongly in the early and middle stages, however, came off the bridle passing the 400M. In its barrier trials it had responded well when asked for an effort, however, despite being ridden out in the race, it did not respond and was disappointing in the manner in which it weakened out of the race."

Gets tongue tie today. Sometimes a tongue tie can make a big difference.

WP :7:

Q Box :1: :3: :5: :7: :13:

[Nitro]

Hi Kev! Glad you could join us.
GL!

[kevb]

Go well Nitro.

[Nitro]

R# 3 - 3-13 W/ 11-9-6-14
Results

R# 3 = 9-4-3-13 - Nothing in that one - No clues on that LS Placer

[kevb]

Race 4:
I don't like the trip comments for the favorite :4: . "began awkwardly and then in the early stages became detached from the field despite being aggressively ridden along", and first time farther than 1800m.

WP :10: wire to wire. (and 3-1 1 1 at the distance)

[woodbinepmi]

Moreira is my modern day Pat Day, when I bet him he disappoints, when I bet against him, he wins by 3.

Race 4 Class 3 2000 Metres
Was hoping to get better than 6-1 on :8: Full Glory, all kinds of trouble, but want more than that price for 3% rider and he still may not be fast enough against some of these in here. The hell with it, going to dutch the :1: and :8: to win. Watch Moreira win for fun.

[Nitro]

R# 4 - 4-2 W/ 8-1-7-3

[kevb]

Agree on Moreira. A regular Russel Baze.

[kevb]

Adding a Q:
:10: with ALL

[Nitro]

R# 4 - 4-2 W/ 8-1-7-3
Results

R# 4 = 5-6-3-1 - Nothing in that one -

Lots of late action on the Winner 13/1 to 6.8/1 :eek:

[woodbinepmi]

One more win and she loses the 10lb. allowance

[Nitro]

One more win and she loses the 10lb. allowance

The way she's riding that might happen this morning!

[woodbinepmi]

The way she's riding that might happen this morning!
Could happen in the next 15 minutes.

Race 5 Class 4 1400 Metres
Not much on this race, :3: Winner St. Paul's race on Feb. 21st put him on my watch list and just missed out in the next race.
Got nothing, probably still on tilt from Race 3.

[Nitro]

Okay now its time to get serious!

R# 5 - 4-2 W/ 5-3-1-10

[Nitro]

Okay now its time to get serious!

R# 5 - 4-2 W/ 5-3-1-10
Results

R# 5 = 5-4-1-9 - QUIN – Q/P x3 & TRI BX :ThmbUp:

$2.00 QUINELLA – 4-5 - $15.10
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 5-4-1 – $132.20

[woodbinepmi]

Race 6 Class 4 1200 Metres
:10: Smiling Glory (5-1) Has been on my watch list off both his first 2 starts, First trip was blocked and beaten by a favourite who got a perfect trip, then caught a yielding track after acting up in the gate. Not too keen on the draw but I have the Brazilian Devil riding.
Over :11: also on my watch list-bet down to 9-2 on a yielding and was taken out at the start (too much for a debut) :4: :1: :8: Key race. Over :3: :7: Trouble in his last 2 races for third.
:10: / :11: :4: :1: :8: / :3: :7:

[Nitro]

I feel some good value coming in this one.

R# 6 - 8-3 W/ 11-1-10-9

[Nitro]

I feel some good value coming in this one.

R# 6 - 8-3 W/ 11-1-10-9
Results

R# 6 = 9-1-12-3 - Nothing in that one – just missed a beauty w/Nitro Exp beaten for the 3rd spot. #12 did see late action going from 45/1 to 31/1 & the Placer #1 went from 9.9/1 to 4/1 !!

The value was there, but my Keys weren't.

[woodbinepmi]

Race 7 GI 1200 Metres
Got no clue

[Nitro]

R# 7 - 7-1 W/ 3-5-4-2-6

Going deeper & looking for some value

[handyman1968]

Impressive performance by Chautauqua winning against the bias...fanned 20 wide on the turn and losing half a length at the start. Only thing that helped him is the fast speed up front. Not quite Lord Kanaloa impressive but nonetheless I'd rank this as the 3rd most impressive sprint win I've ever seen behind Lord Kanaloa and Silent Witness' 2nd HK Sprint win.

[Nitro]

R# 7 - 7-1 W/ 3-5-4-2-6

Going deeper & looking for some value

Results - I didn’t have to go very deep at all.

R# 7 = 1-7-13-3 - WIN – QUIN
Winner went from last to 1st . That was some performance!

$2.00 WIN –1 - $5.60
$2.00 QUINELLA – 1-7 - $12.80

[woodbinepmi]

Advance Australia Fair

[woodbinepmi]

Will hear it from my Mum tomorrow about that win.

Race 8 GI 1600
Going to bet :2: Contentment (10-1) off his effort in the Chairman's Trophy, Over :1: :3: :4: and :5:

[Nitro]

R# 8 - 1-5 W/ 3-2-8-9

[Nitro]

R# 8 - 1-5 W/ 3-2-8-9
Nice call Woody!
Results -

R# 8 = 1-2-12-5 - WIN – QUIN
(#2 Contentment went from 9.9/1 to 4.9/1 &
#12 Packing Pins goes from 30/1 to 11/1 & gets 3rd!)

$2.00 WIN –1 - $4.30
$2.00 QUINELLA – 1-2 - $13.70

[woodbinepmi]

Couldn't believe how much Contentment dropped the last minutes before post, went free falling like the price of oil a while back.

Race 9 Class 2 1400 Metres

Have a big 'X' through :4: Apollo's Choice (7-1), hopefully Prebble will have him a little closer to the pace than previous efforts. Over :2: key race with Werther in it. Over :1: :5: Trouble and yielding track, :7: Need to lead type that wasn't able to get to the front.
:4: / :2: / :1: :5: :7:

[Nitro]

R# 9 - 1-5 W/ 2-7-9-4

[Nitro]

R# 9 - 1-5 W/ 2-7-9-4
Results -

R# 9 = 2-9-5-10 - QUIN/PLC x2 & TRI BX

$2.00 QUIN/PLC – 2-5 - $6.40 & 5-9 - $17.70
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 2-9-5 – $228.80

[Nitro]

R# 10 - 3-1 W/ 8-11-4-6

[Nitro]

R# 10 - 3-1 W/ 8-11-4-6
Results -

R# 10 = 4-7-11-13 - Nothing in that one - both Keys failed
No clues on that LS Placer

[Nitro]

R# 11 - 4-2 W/ 3-9-8-5

[Nitro]

R# 11 - 4-2 W/ 3-9-8-5
Results -

R# 11 = 8-4-3-13 - QUIN – QUIN/PLC x2 & TRI BX :ThmbUp:
Winner slowly drifted down from 15/1 to 9/1

$2.00 QUINELLA – 4-8 - $50.00
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 8-4-3 – $377.80

Have a good day.