Nice field for the Surburban

[cj]

Funny Cide, Newfoundland, Peace Rules, Sarava, Devil Time, Colonial Colony, Dynever, and Bowman's Band.

[TravisVOX]

I think Dynever gets back to his winning ways Saturday. Tough to run down Seattle Fitz in last, and you can bet Funny Cide/Peace Rules will be backing up. If he doesn't win this one, he's not a top handicap horse.

[cj]

Personally, I think Dynever is the newest "Dollar Bill." He NEVER wins above the G3 level. He had the ideal pace setup in the last and still couldn't get up.

He is a contender, but he'll be overbet as he is every single time he runs. If he is ever going to win a big one, 1 1/4 miles gives him his best shot. I wouldn't cross my fingers though, and he'll be about 3-1 in to get the job done, no thanks.

[TravisVOX]

What are you initial thoughts? The others don't scream out play me either though, ya know?

[cj]

Looks like a good, evenly matched field that is probably worth watching without betting.

I see everyone but Sarava and Devil Time having a shot, and none will be long enough on the tote board to warrant a bet. You never know though, the bettors surprise you sometimes.

[Bubbles]

What are your thoughts on Colonial Colony? He ran huge in the Stephen Foster to beat one of the best handicap horses in the country, Southern Image. Was that a fluke?

[TravisVOX]

Colonial Colony ran huge last time, although the final Beyer number was not anything ultra-impressive. This is the race where 'Colony puts up or shuts up. Unfortunately, it's at the expense of us, the bettors, and how we approach. Right now, I'm content with watching this race and enjoying.

But...

If someone had a gun to my head, I could lean towards this horse regressing/backing up towards his prior usual numbers and ability. He doesn't show a single graded stakes victory to his line with the exception, of course, of the last. But look towards the bottom and he was soundly handled in that same race last year. He COULD win, but doesn't get my vote.

I'll pass, he'll be played enough to avoid him like the plague in my opinion.

Oh yea and one more thing, he'll probably occupy a ton of P4 tickets and with his probable underlay status, be worthy of a toss.

[Observer]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
... Dynever ... had the ideal pace setup in the last and still couldn't get up.

Dynever may have had an "ideal pace setup" last out in the G2 Brooklyn, however he ran into a horse that freaked when Seattle Fitz blitzed through torrid fractions in a battle with Newfoundland that brought them to 3/4s in 1:08.56, and Seattle Fitz just kept right on going.

It was a giant effort out of Seattle Fitz .. and notice that Seattle Fitz is missing from this line-up while Dynever and Newfoundland are back. Could Seattle Fitz possibly still be feeling the effects????

[Bubbles]

Observer...

Seattle Fitz's connections have said they were going to skip the Suburban all along. They think nine panels is his best distance and that he isn't at his best at a mile and a quarter.

[TravisVOX]

Or so they say, I think he's probably feeling that last race a touch. Even if they said before, if this race Saturday was 9 panels, I still think he doesn't make it.

[Tee]

Funny Cide supposedly will not run if both Peace Rules & Dynever do.

[TravisVOX]

Originally posted by teeitup
Funny Cide supposedly will not run if both Peace Rules & Dynever do.

Tagg knows he has no shot, that's why.

[PaceAdvantage]

The way Peace Rules spit the bit last time, I wouldn't be afraid of him. Unless of course the off track was the excuse. He had a dream trip up front.

And I have no idea why they would be that scared of Dynever. In my mind, this is an ideal race for Funny Cide. Of course, I haven't looked at the PPs yet....

[Hosshead]

Wonder what the odds will be on Bowman's Band?

[cj]

Originally posted by Observer
Dynever may have had an "ideal pace setup" last out in the G2 Brooklyn, however he ran into a horse that freaked when Seattle Fitz blitzed through torrid fractions in a battle with Newfoundland that brought them to 3/4s in 1:08.56, and Seattle Fitz just kept right on going.

It was a giant effort out of Seattle Fitz .. and notice that Seattle Fitz is missing from this line-up while Dynever and Newfoundland are back. Could Seattle Fitz possibly still be feeling the effects????

Like I said, he's a contender, but as a bettor, what has he ever done that would warrant betting him at the expected 3-1 or less? That's all I'm saying...

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Hosshead
Wonder what the odds will be on Bowman's Band?

I like this one too.........can't remember what he did last out though. I will wait until the final card comes out and look at it.

CJ......... I think your right about the prices though........

[cj]

2d in the Met last out.

[OTM Al]

And a strong second at that. He's my pick in this one. I was shocked FC even got entered in this. Two weeks off the Mass Cap even were not Peace Rules and Dynever in the field I would be worried about that one.

[Bubbles]

I agree with OTM Al. But Tagg probably wants to get another race in before the heat sets in. He's always said FC was not a horse who performed well in heat, and that he was considering giving him the summer off. While it may seem illogical, Tagg DID have his reasons for entering FC in the Suburban.

[ceejay]

Actually, I give Funny Cide a shot here, and may play him at the right price (> 4-1). [That's assuming it's not too humid and the right horses scratch so they run him.] He's performed well before off two weeks rest following a good performance, and the third start post-freshening.

[TravisVOX]

Weather forecasts guarantee a higher-than 32 degree high temp. tomorrow...'Cide scratches or gets beat.

[OTM Al]

I'm favoring Bowman's Band, but FC did beat him in the Donn and the weather wasn't all that different than what is expected tomorrow, so that's a plus for FC, but I agree with ceejay that the odds would have to be good, though 4-1 may even be a bit short for me.

Of course FC could always take a shot at a bigger purse and a weak looking field in the Hollywood Gold Cup next week...

[Valuist]

I wonder what kind of price Colonial Colony will be. True the Foster was run on a sloppy track but it was legit. That field was stronger than the Met Mile field, IMO. And I see Rafael "I win every race I ride now" Bejarano is coming to ride.

[Observer]

Originally posted by Bubbles
Observer...

Seattle Fitz's connections have said they were going to skip the Suburban all along. They think nine panels is his best distance and that he isn't at his best at a mile and a quarter.

Sorry, I didn't mean to suggest his absence from this race was a last-minute surprise. You're absolutely right .. the connections of Seattle Fitz did make the announcement shortly after the Brooklyn that they would skip the Suburban. I was simply trying to point out that Seattle Fitz ran a monster race in the Brooklyn, but I do wonder .. if he came out of the race in exceptional form (and I don't know he didn't) .. I wonder why not take the shot in this event??? Who knew he could have run the race he did in the Brooklyn, in terms of how he did it .. maybe he could have pulled off another trying 10 furlongs on Saturday. But, of course, I know .. Saratoga is right around the corner .. and his connections are doing what they believe is best .. I have no problem with that.
:D

[Observer]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
Like I said, he's a contender, but as a bettor, what has he ever done that would warrant betting him at the expected 3-1 or less? That's all I'm saying...

I'm absolutely not battling you on that point .. just the point about how Dynever got the right set up and couldn't get the job done in the Brooklyn. Believe me, I'm one of the most disappointed in Dynever, because I've liked him since he began his career at Gulfstream. The late kick he'd show inside the final 1/8th or 1/16th was pretty dazzling.

[Skanoochies]

" Tagg want`s to get another race in before the heat sets in." And in tomorrows form, Mike Hammersly suggests Tagg may scratch and head to Hollywood instead. Something doesn`t add up.

I still wonder if Peace Rules or Dynever are really 1 1/4 horses.

Good luck tomorrow,

Skanoochies.:)

[cj]

If Dynever isn't a 1 1/4 horse, I don't what he will be. Turf maybe? He certainly isn't a 1 1 /8 mile horse, he just can't get up against good ones at that distance.

[cj]

WOW, at least Dollar Bill usually hit the board. And Dynever was favored no less! What a joke!

[cj]

Beyers for the Weekend...

Peace Rules, 111
Roses in May, 113

Interesting!

[azibuck]

I don't follow horse racing. Much. Who's Roses in May? And the significance of the comparison? Maybe I should open a DRF once in a while...