first 5 out and why

[boys at tosconova]

oscar nominated
lani
majesto
toms ready
trojan nation

i will not say why until somebody actually come in here and thinks any will finish 1/2nd.

[dballard125]

Oscar Nominated
Trojan Nation
Shagaf
Outwork
Lani

I just dont think any of these horses are good enough to win, or hit the board for that matter.

[SecretAgentMan]

Trojan Nation could get a piece, & why I think do? Because he's a maiden still.

[dballard125]

Trojan Nation could get a piece, & why I think do? Because he's a maiden still.

That Wood Memorial was atrocious. I just dont see any horse coming from that race, being a factor.

[SecretAgentMan]

That Wood Memorial was atrocious. I just dont see any horse coming from that race, being a factor.




Commanding Curve ran 4th in the LA derby & came in 2nd behind Chrome. Always expect the unexpected underneath, except for last year. Doesn't mean he's gonna hit the board, I just like him underneath with the way he closed.

[dballard125]

Commanding Curve ran 4th in the LA derby & came in 2nd behind Chrome. Always expect the unexpected underneath, except for last year. Doesn't mean he's gonna hit the board, I just like him underneath with the way he closed.

I could see some other long shots getting a piece...but not from the Wood. That race was horrendous, in my opinion. I just don't like any of the horses coming out of that one. Some from the other preps have my attention though.

[boys at tosconova]

I could see some other long shots getting a piece...but not from the Wood. That race was horrendous, in my opinion. I just don't like any of the horses coming out of that one. Some from the other preps have my attention though.

the track was like oatmeal. the time of the race doesn't mean much. outlook seemed 3w for most of the race and still won. previously he cut the mile in the TB derby track record and didn't lose by much.

[f2tornado]

Oscar Nominated - toss
Lani - well bred horse with room to improve but much to ask here with a rider not used to the track. Would not be shocked to hit the super. I will use sparingly underneath.
Majesto- If Nyquist is all that then this horse wasn't far behind. Would be more surprised if he hits the super, especially if JC is not on him. I don't plan on using much if at all.
Toms Ready - Dallas Stewart bomber angle alone makes this one worth playing a $2 exacta under your favorite horse. Lots of Mo Tom talk but this one has the better breeding and placed ahead. Cherokee Rose in tail female. I will use in a couple trifecta tickets.
Trojan Nation - If you like Outwork then you almost have to consider this horse who could have beat him with another panel. One of the top BSF figures in the field. Raise A Native on top, Buckpasser-x, Query in tail female. One of the most logical 50-1 exotics bombers I've seen for this event. I will use on tri and a few exacta tickets.

There isn't a whole heck of a lot that separates most of the bottom 17 or so horses in this race so I see no reason to leave out a well bred bomber or two on the tri wheel.

[dballard125]

Oscar Nominated - toss
Lani - well bred horse with room to improve but much to ask here with a rider not used to the track. Would not be shocked to hit the super. I will use sparingly underneath.
Majesto- If Nyquist is all that then this horse wasn't far behind. Would be more surprised if he hits the super, especially if JC is not on him. I don't plan on using much if at all.
Toms Ready - Dallas Stewart bomber angle alone makes this one worth playing a $2 exacta under your favorite horse. Lots of Mo Tom talk but this one has the better breeding and placed ahead. Cherokee Rose in tail female. I will use in a couple trifecta tickets.
Trojan Nation - If you like Outwork then you almost have to consider this horse who could have beat him with another panel. One of the top BSF figures in the field. Raise A Native on top, Buckpasser-x, Query in tail female. One of the most logical 50-1 exotics bombers I've seen for this event. I will use on tri and a few exacta tickets.

There isn't a whole heck of a lot that separates most of the bottom 17 or so horses in this race so I see no reason to leave out a well bred bomber or two on the tri wheel.

Good post. Now you have me rethinking a couple of these, which is the last thing that I wanted lol.

[PoloUK6108]

I'm scared of Lani simply because I was all in on Mubtaahij last year and if I toss him he'll ruin my Derby day...

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm scared of Lani simply because I was all in on Mubtaahij last year and if I toss him he'll ruin my Derby day...




I didn't go big on Mubtaahij like I did Chrome, but was still disappointed in.myself for playing Mubtaahij knowing fully well that Baffert had the best horse he's ever had in his barn.

As for playing another UAE horse in the derby, will never happen again, & I will gladly take the loss with my horse if a UAE horse wins the roses. IMO, UAE horses shouldn't be allowed to run in the derby unless they've raced every 3 year old prep race here in the states.

I will play a derby horse that hasn't raved at 2 before a UAE horse again to win. As far as playing Lani underneath, he's my last resort.

Have you seen Lani workout? Terrible, simply terrible!

[PoloUK6108]

I'm not sure if it's terrible or some strange Japanese tactics :eek: :D

[PoloUK6108]

SecretAgentMan I'm right there with ya on the Gun Runner wagon, though.

5 tosses...

Suddenbreakingnews
Trojan Nation
Mor Spirit
Whitmore
Majesto

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm not sure if it's terrible or some strange Japanese tactics :eek: :D



The only thing that .makes me go hmm.....is the fact that the jockey flew in from Japan just to work him out, that's crazy in my mind, but maybe its the way jockeys work the deal they have with the trainer.

[Andrick]

Lani, Mohaymen, Danzing Candy, Oscar Nominated, and Shagaf for me.

[CincyHorseplayer]

the track was like oatmeal. the time of the race doesn't mean much. outlook seemed 3w for most of the race and still won. previously he cut the mile in the TB derby track record and didn't lose by much.

Oatmeal! That's a good one. Gotta borrow it sometime!

Because of Outwork's nice Tampa race I think he's a good horse despite the Wood condition, time etc. His big obstacle is Danzing Candy.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Nyquist
Mohaymen
Exaggerator
Creator
Gun Runner

I'm looking to make a lifetime score not go with the obvious like you chumps! :cool:

[tanner12oz]

Oscar
lani
shagaf
destin
mohaymen

[SecretAgentMan]

Oatmeal! That's a good one. Gotta borrow it sometime!

Because of Outwork's nice Tampa race I think he's a good horse despite the Wood condition, time etc. His big obstacle is Danzing Candy.



If Danzig Candy wins the derby, I will never bet another derby.

[CincyHorseplayer]

If Danzig Candy wins the derby, I will never bet another derby.

Just comparing frontrunner to frontrunner. Outwork finished strong at Tampa but after softer fractions than DC's big win. As both look like pure E horses it only takes 2 to make a really fast pace. You could have 5-6 EP horses and get a soft pace. 2 E's=unlikely. Both these could get cooked but I think DC is the stronger colt with this running style. Do not see a pure theft though. This will be a derby that will be contested at every stage IMO. I think there will be wave after wave of challenges. The pure numbers might not end up quick but I see a different group of challengers at each call. It's really making it chaotic to interpret IMO. Some see only 2 frontrunners and think soft pace. I disagree. 2 E's, an EP, and a lot of up close pressers and then 2 waves of closers. Nobody is going to get a break here!

[boys at tosconova]

Just comparing frontrunner to frontrunner. Outwork finished strong at Tampa but after softer fractions than DC's big win. As both look like pure E horses it only takes 2 to make a really fast pace. You could have 5-6 EP horses and get a soft pace. 2 E's=unlikely. Both these could get cooked but I think DC is the stronger colt with this running style. Do not see a pure theft though. This will be a derby that will be contested at every stage IMO. I think there will be wave after wave of challenges. The pure numbers might not end up quick but I see a different group of challengers at each call. It's really making it chaotic to interpret IMO. Some see only 2 frontrunners and think soft pace. I disagree. 2 E's, an EP, and a lot of up close pressers and then 2 waves of closers. Nobody is going to get a break here!

obv we haven't seen posts, but i think outlook will be more content to let candy go.

[depalma113]

oscar nominated
lani
majesto
toms ready
trojan nation

i will not say why until somebody actually come in here and thinks any will finish 1/2nd.

The field is so bad, the exacta could be two of these.

[fiznow]

oscar nominated
lani
majesto
toms ready
trojan nation

i will not say why until somebody actually come in here and thinks any will finish 1/2nd.

Not Majesto for me. He is a sleeping monster with the perfect timing of improvement. Hope he gets a good jockey now with Castellano riding Destin.

[SecretAgentMan]

Just comparing frontrunner to frontrunner. Outwork finished strong at Tampa but after softer fractions than DC's big win. As both look like pure E horses it only takes 2 to make a really fast pace. You could have 5-6 EP horses and get a soft pace. 2 E's=unlikely. Both these could get cooked but I think DC is the stronger colt with this running style. Do not see a pure theft though. This will be a derby that will be contested at every stage IMO. I think there will be wave after wave of challenges. The pure numbers might not end up quick but I see a different group of challengers at each call. It's really making it chaotic to interpret IMO. Some see only 2 frontrunners and think soft pace. I disagree. 2 E's, an EP, and a lot of up close pressers and then 2 waves of closers. Nobody is going to get a break here!



Oh, Ok, I see what you're saying. I agree that Danzig is the purest of the speed, but will be challenged, no way he wires the field. Will there be a new leader at every call? I don't know, but Outwork & Nyquist will certainly make their moves & pressure Danzig. Pending on post draw, & as long as Danzig doesn't get a really bad post, he will definitely be the front runner, but won't be uncontested either.

[PoloUK6108]

Interesting that Mike Smith will be on the lead for the 3rd time in 5 years...he's been flying under the radar lately maybe he figures it out this time?

[Hoops McCann]

The way Danzing Candy folded last out could make the other jocks underestimate him, letting him set the pace and not worry about him staying on. But what if he gets away with a 47 and change half? and the track is speed biased that day? it could happen.

[SecretAgentMan]

The way Danzing Candy folded last out could make the other jocks underestimate him, letting him set the pace and not worry about him staying on. But what if he gets away with a 47 and change half? and the track is speed biased that day? it could happen.




IMO, no way he's at the half by himself, Nyquist or Outwork will breathing down his neck.

[Robert Fischer]

Just comparing frontrunner to frontrunner. Outwork finished strong at Tampa but after softer fractions than DC's big win. As both look like pure E horses it only takes 2 to make a really fast pace. You could have 5-6 EP horses and get a soft pace. 2 E's=unlikely. Both these could get cooked but I think DC is the stronger colt with this running style. Do not see a pure theft though. This will be a derby that will be contested at every stage IMO. I think there will be wave after wave of challenges. The pure numbers might not end up quick but I see a different group of challengers at each call. It's really making it chaotic to interpret IMO. Some see only 2 frontrunners and think soft pace. I disagree. 2 E's, an EP, and a lot of up close pressers and then 2 waves of closers. Nobody is going to get a break here!

Oh, Ok, I see what you're saying. I agree that Danzig is the purest of the speed, but will be challenged, no way he wires the field. Will there be a new leader at every call? I don't know, but Outwork & Nyquist will certainly make their moves & pressure Danzig. Pending on post draw, & as long as Danzig doesn't get a really bad post, he will definitely be the front runner, but won't be uncontested either.


Danzig Candy is interesting.
I honestly have to re-watch all his races. - My current impression is that he was way too cheap. In the Santa Anita Derby where he was favored, I didn't even like him. Mor Spirit and Exaggerator looked like the top 2 horses coming into that race.
The pace could be more moderate this year than has been the case several years back when graded earnings(incl sprint) got you in.

*A lot of the old Derby rules and feels by us cappers could be wrong.

:confused:If this was the 6th at Belmont or whatever, and we see a horse that's not one of the favorites and is the obvious pace-setter with a wire-to-wire win 2back, and too-hot-pace-meltdown last race... And suddenly that horse is our Wise-Guy horse. Wire-to-wire horses are always a little more dangerous than their talent suggests they should be...
Leads in moderate fractions, controls the position into the turn, has a good day or gets brave or whatever... It's hard to run a horse down after all the others have just run 8.5-9furlongs so far....

I'll have to be honest , I think he's too cheap so far.

Outwork is also a little bit interesting.
4 races? (and 1 was a short sprint??)
Outwork's Tampa Derby was embarrasing. I don't care what the figure makers thought of that race, it wasn't a great prep IMHO, and Outwork tired after he was challenged by Destin(a stablemate taking less money).
But Outwork's Wood was hard to read. That surface was funky that day. Outwork dusted the other horse that did some running in the Wood(Matt King Cole). He was all out, and the final 1/16th was slowing down... Have to REALLY blame the surface, but Outwork has enough question marks to be interesting as well.

[Robert Fischer]

I'm a trip handicapper, but I still like to get my contenders from the PPs.

Before I toss horses, I like to toss out preps that were oddly run except for horses that ran well against the grain.

S̶a̶n̶t̶a̶ ̶A̶n̶i̶t̶a̶ ̶D̶e̶r̶b̶y̶
B̶l̶u̶e̶g̶r̶a̶s̶s̶
A̶r̶k̶a̶n̶s̶a̶s̶ ̶D̶e̶r̶b̶y̶
F̶l̶o̶r̶i̶d̶a̶ ̶D̶e̶r̶b̶y̶
W̶o̶o̶d̶ (except Outwork in order to glean more info)

that's my first 5

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'm a trip handicapper, but I still like to get my contenders from the PPs.

Before I toss horses, I like to toss out preps that were oddly run except for horses that ran well against the grain.

S̶a̶n̶t̶a̶ ̶A̶n̶i̶t̶a̶ ̶D̶e̶r̶b̶y̶
B̶l̶u̶e̶g̶r̶a̶s̶s̶
A̶r̶k̶a̶n̶s̶a̶s̶ ̶D̶e̶r̶b̶y̶
F̶l̶o̶r̶i̶d̶a̶ ̶D̶e̶r̶b̶y̶
W̶o̶o̶d̶ (except Outwork in order to glean more info)

that's my first 5

Slop
Fast Pace
Fast Pace
Drying out track
Slop

I agree that all the races have to be taken with a grain of salt.

[boys at tosconova]

The field is so bad, the exacta could be two of these.

only chance of that is if there's an accident or 10 horses get blocked. or both

[Secondbest]

only chance of that is if there's an accident or 10 horses get blocked. or both
That could easily happen.

[boys at tosconova]

That could easily happen.

http://foureyedcoupe.com/Pics/Cheech.gif http://foureyedcoupe.com/Pics/Cheech.gif

[boys at tosconova]

i'm sure there will some variance in peoples 5 out. the real decisions are made cutting it to 10 and further.

i see it as top 3 and then a cavalry of horses. but really none on my first 5 out list. only way i would use them is in a wheel situation, not because i like their chances, but only to cover them as it's only a nominal amount more if you do wheel.