NorCalGreg
04-28-2016, 03:29 AM
In my never-ending quest for the perfect mechanical NO-HANDICAPPING method...decided to try out something @ Aqueduct this month.
This method only concerns a horse that is back to the races in 12 days or less--and ridden by a jockey that wins 15%. There are plenty of horses entered right back in this time frame--but usually not with an accomplished rider aboard.
I first thought of this method after testing one similar....a 20% Winning Jockey--today riding for a trainer that only wins 5% or less. Really thought that was going to be surprisingly profitable-- but no. Not the testing I did, anyway. It was too dependent on the rare longshot to keep a postive ROI
So here are the horses that qualified @ AQ this month:
--back in 12 days or less----15%+ jockey
LITERATA 9/5 $6.30
LITTLE BEAR CAT 8-1 $15.80
GUYANA CAT 12-1
BEACH HUT 2-1
FLEETING GOLD 5-1
MAMA'S RED HAT 30-1
PROPHET'S CAT 20-1
TOLEDO EDDIE 8/5 $4.70
GUYANA 2-1 $6.80
RICH N' TUCK 7/2 $4.80
NUBIN RIDGE 7/2
CLASSIC SALSA 12-1
CITY STEEL 5/2 $6.80
BUSTIN THE BANK $3.10
CHINA PRINCE 8-1
AMERICAN CREED 7/2
INTEGRITY 30-1
DREAMS TO REALITY 9/5
VALKIMQUA 3-1 $7.10
DARNLEY BAY 4-1
AMERICAN CREED 3-1 $3.60
ALL OVER ME 4-1
HOWL 12-1
BREAK AWAY 5-1
GENTRITY 6-1
--As you can see there were quite a few winners:
9 0f 25 Won = 36%
36% made the exacta
44% were ITM
ROI was $1.18
--This is the really interesting part--you see that 2nd horse on the list LITTLE BEAR CAT? Paid $15.80? You probably think--throw that one out--your method shows a big fat loss. True--but let's throw some more out.
How bout we TOSS EVERY HORSE OVER 7/2 ML? All of a sudden, we've won 8 of 12 for 66% Win Rate!
You can have that $15.80 winner--we don't need him.
This is without handicapping...imagine if you loosen the parameters and add in some of your own screening methods.
I'm not out to "prove" anything...just suggest another handicapping angle. If someone would like to research their home track, or any other--please do, as this is far from conclusive. Food for thought, if you will.
I'm in the middle of putting a book, and website together on easy, No-Handicapping, and One-Factor Handicapping Methods & non-technical software......mainly for the weekend warrior. :)
♣ NCG
This method only concerns a horse that is back to the races in 12 days or less--and ridden by a jockey that wins 15%. There are plenty of horses entered right back in this time frame--but usually not with an accomplished rider aboard.
I first thought of this method after testing one similar....a 20% Winning Jockey--today riding for a trainer that only wins 5% or less. Really thought that was going to be surprisingly profitable-- but no. Not the testing I did, anyway. It was too dependent on the rare longshot to keep a postive ROI
So here are the horses that qualified @ AQ this month:
--back in 12 days or less----15%+ jockey
LITERATA 9/5 $6.30
LITTLE BEAR CAT 8-1 $15.80
GUYANA CAT 12-1
BEACH HUT 2-1
FLEETING GOLD 5-1
MAMA'S RED HAT 30-1
PROPHET'S CAT 20-1
TOLEDO EDDIE 8/5 $4.70
GUYANA 2-1 $6.80
RICH N' TUCK 7/2 $4.80
NUBIN RIDGE 7/2
CLASSIC SALSA 12-1
CITY STEEL 5/2 $6.80
BUSTIN THE BANK $3.10
CHINA PRINCE 8-1
AMERICAN CREED 7/2
INTEGRITY 30-1
DREAMS TO REALITY 9/5
VALKIMQUA 3-1 $7.10
DARNLEY BAY 4-1
AMERICAN CREED 3-1 $3.60
ALL OVER ME 4-1
HOWL 12-1
BREAK AWAY 5-1
GENTRITY 6-1
--As you can see there were quite a few winners:
9 0f 25 Won = 36%
36% made the exacta
44% were ITM
ROI was $1.18
--This is the really interesting part--you see that 2nd horse on the list LITTLE BEAR CAT? Paid $15.80? You probably think--throw that one out--your method shows a big fat loss. True--but let's throw some more out.
How bout we TOSS EVERY HORSE OVER 7/2 ML? All of a sudden, we've won 8 of 12 for 66% Win Rate!
You can have that $15.80 winner--we don't need him.
This is without handicapping...imagine if you loosen the parameters and add in some of your own screening methods.
I'm not out to "prove" anything...just suggest another handicapping angle. If someone would like to research their home track, or any other--please do, as this is far from conclusive. Food for thought, if you will.
I'm in the middle of putting a book, and website together on easy, No-Handicapping, and One-Factor Handicapping Methods & non-technical software......mainly for the weekend warrior. :)
♣ NCG