Hong Kong Apr. 27th Happy Valley

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong for April 27th at Happy Valley.
Weather report: 73 degrees with Isolated Thunderstorms wind: wnw 5 mph.
Post time: 6.15am ET 3.15am PT Rail: ‘C’ Course, track listed: Good

Links to past performances:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20160427_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html

Vulnerable favourites:
Race 1 :2: Oracle (5-2) A horse who has shown in the past with no intentions of leading at the wire, has had plenty of chances to kill the duck at Hong Kong. 0 for 24 in HK, 1 for 35 lifetime.
Race 3 :2: Glory Sunshine (7-2) Is winless after 17 in Hong Kong, downgrade even more if track comes up yielding.

Horses coming out of key races (multiple winners that have come back out of those races and won at or higher class than today's class).
Race 3 :3: Winning Boy (17-1) 3rd and 5th place runners came back and won, both in Class 4.
Race 4 :7: Mighty Equus (15-1) Coming out of the same race as is Winning Boy in the 3rd.
Race 4 :9: Sea Warrior (17-1) Race 510 the 5th and 7th place finishers have won their next race.
Race 6 :4: Victory Follow Me (68-1) the 2nd and 9th of race 444 won next out.

If the rains continue and the track is downgraded to yielding, horses that can be upgraded due to have proven to run well on a yielding or soft track in their past:
Race 1 :4: Funny Fortune (7-1)
Race 3 :6: Ray Of Gold (5-1)
Race 4 :2: Lucky Profit (3-1)
Race 5 :6: Wealthy Fortune (9-1)
Race 7 :2: King Of Mongolia (4-1), :6: Red Marvel (15-1) and :11: Happy Journey (18-1)
Race 8 :1: Born In China (7-1), :3: Accepted (12-1), :5: Lucky Year (6-1), :7: Fabulous November (29-1) and :12: Peace N Prosperity (9-1)

Horse off my watch list:
Race 7 :5: Formula Won (9-1) passing the 150M was held up for clear running. Approaching the 100M was shifted out to obtain clear running. Over the concluding stages raced tight and made contact with that runner.

Longshots:
Race 3 :1: King’s Steed (11-1)
Race 4 :1: Hasta La Vista (18-1)
Race 5 :2: Leowl (11-1)
Race 6 :3: Grace Heart (14-1)
Race 8 :4: High Five (11-1)

My Key Plays:
Race 5 :2: Leowl (11-1)
Race 6 :3: Grace Heart (14-1)
Race 7 :5: Formula Won (9-1)

[kevb]

Thanks. Good work. I like betting HK, and I think they have really sharp paddock commentators.

Go well.

[woodbinepmi]

Race 1 Class 5 1659 Metres
They are betting the :2: Oracle off the board right now at 3-2, they bet Moreira if he rides a mule. Going to play Doubles without the chalk just for entertainment.
:4: and :9: with the :1: and the :4: in the second

[woodbinepmi]

Results 1st:
:4: - :9: - :10: - :11: Winner pays $16.00
:2: Oracle (8-5) favourite: DNF

[woodbinepmi]

Race 2 Class 4 1000 metres
Love these sprint races at the Valley. Taking the chalk in here, not all that happy about the draw but at least the other speed draws outside him.
:1: Moment of Power over :4: other speed with the bug girl :11: beat a bad field in last at high odds. Over :2: :3: drew in with the scratch :9: third time starter with Moreira :7: for third.
:1: / :4: :11: / :2: :3: :9: :7:

[kevb]

Good hit in the first. The :1: looks tough in the 2nd, but I am betting a quinella with :4: and :7: on top of almost all.

[kevb]

K. Chiong is amazing on front running horses.

[woodbinepmi]

K. Chiong is amazing on front running horses.
Yes she is, hard to get by her in the stretch if she has anything under her. Was over when Purton allowed her to get over on him without really asking her mount.
Results 2nd
:4: - :1: - :11: - :3: Winner pays $ 21.70
Double paid $ 55.

[kevb]

Race 3: It seems plain to me--which is all to frequently when I should pass and go grab a bite to eat. :1: :2: :10: . I like to wait and see if Jenny backs me up with her paddock comments.

[woodbinepmi]

Race 3 Class 5 1200 Metres
Another favourite with Moreira that really doesn't like to win, 0 for 17 in HK. Like (if you can call it that) the :6: Ray Of Gold (7-2) was blocked and was still able to get up aided by the yielding track in his last. Was hoping to get a better price on :1: King's Speed (6-1). Over :10: Blocked and beaten by better in last :5: sat behind a duel and still couldn't catch the winner. over :2: :7: Rank in last :3: Blocked and comes out of a key race (2 winners in a higher class than in here) :4: just got off the Vet's list.
:6: :1: / :10: :5: / :2: :7: :3: :4:
Not betting here, don't trust any of them with actual currency.

[kevb]

In a projected good to slow pace race:
:2: is blinkers back on and 2nd time Moreira on a front runner.
:10: had a negative trip comment last race, but is first time tongue tie and K. Chiong up on a front runner.
:1: should be near the front with a good HKJC "Energy" rating.

[kevb]

Moreira nosed by :11: Ouch.

[woodbinepmi]

She wins another, the way this is going she may end her 10lb. allowance tonight.
Results: :10: - :11: - :2: - :6: Winner pays $ 9.00

[woodbinepmi]

Race 4 Class 4 1200 Metres
Think it's time for Mr. Moreira to take his picture, :2: Lucky Profit (2-1) just got up to beat the :8: in his last, gets a good draw for the 6 furlong races at the Valley and LOVES this track. :1: Hasta La Vista (39-1) willing to excuse his last in his first at Class 4, love the price.
:2: :1: over :8: longshot finish in last, did have to get to the bottom of him while not changing leads, that might have been his race. :7: won at 32-1 but the 3rd and 5th place runners came back and won next out. Over :6: :4: Bug girl with early foot :12: was bothered early then blocked and still only beaten by 1/2 length :9: key race.
:2: :1: / :8: :7: / :6: :4: :12: :9:

[woodbinepmi]

Results 4th:
:2: - :4: - :6: - :5: Winner pays $ 5.30

[woodbinepmi]

Race 5 Class 4 1800 Metres
Going with the HOT bug girl, not too keen on the draw but plenty of room to get over at 1800 metres from the 10 barrier. :2: Leowl (5-1) was at a pace disadvantage and was beaten by a better trip. :1: Beauty Love (6-1) had everything go his way and had no excuse, like the price. Over :3: :7: Over :4: :11: Refuses to win races :6:
:2: :1: / :3: :7: / :4: :11: :6:

[kevb]

Race 5:
Nice prices, if we're good enough.
Q box :1: :2: :3: :4:

[kevb]

:12: Kerkeni goes green late, but the race caller has the wise observation. Kerkeni goes the way of that most each way bets sem to go. He finishes 4th.

[woodbinepmi]

Results 5th
:11: - :10: - :7: - :12: Winner pays $ 8.50

[woodbinepmi]

Race 6 Class 3 1200 Metres
Hate the draw but like the horse and love the price, :3: Grace Heart (15-1) has an infinity for the Valley and just missed in last. Over :2: dueled with the favourite and running style favours how the track is playing :7: Over :1: blocked in last and drop in class :5: :4: key race :10: :9: need for lead type gets the bug gate girl and an inside draw.
:3: / :2: :7: / :1: :5: :4: :10: :9:

[kevb]

Moreira's overdue, but no price there. Your :3: is attractive if he doesn't get caught wide. He's 3:1 to place. Still confused.

[woodbinepmi]

Moreira's overdue, but no price there. Your :3: is attractive if he doesn't get caught wide. He's 3:1 to place. Still confused.
Draw got him, had to use too much energy to get over and eventually got to him in the stretch.
Results 6th
:10: - :1: - :2: - :11: Winner pays $ 5.20

[kevb]

How much money was just dropped on the :8: . He's even money!

[woodbinepmi]

Race 7 Class 3 1650 Metres
Hoping that the bias is an optical illusion. My key horse is a deep closer, just missed in his last while being blocked in the stretch, :5: Formula Won (11-1) 9 out of 21 in the money at Happy Valley, either he fires or he doesn't will gamble on the price. :2: King Of Mongolia got a perfect trip win sitting behind a duel with nothing around him, should have plenty left in the tank. Over :4: never changes to his proper lead :6: was all out in last to get up. Over :8: :1:
:5: :2: / :4: :6: / :8: :1:

[woodbinepmi]

How much money was just dropped on the :8: . He's even money!
Has to be a ton, with the amount of money they bet over there it takes a lot to move odds.

[kevb]

Taking a hail mary swing:

WP :10: :12:

[woodbinepmi]

Results 7th
:8: - :4: - :2: - :5: Winner pays $ 5.10

That was very impressive win, even while running green in the lane. Night has gone chalky just when I needed it to go the other way, none of my key plays fired enough to win tonight.

[kevb]

Yep. Very impressive win.
I'll finish out with a :1: :2: Q. and a :1: :2: / :1: :2: / All Tri

Go well.

[woodbinepmi]

Race 8 Class 2 1200 Metres
:2: Line Seeker (4/5) won very easily while fighting for the lead, but was against Class 3 rivals and only gets a 5lb drop. Afraid the :6: will really push him early on. :4: High Five (12-1) If I can get the :6: and the :7: to push the chalk early, hopefully it will set it up for this closer, made a nice move when the race was already decided. Over :5: bad draw :1: may need the race after being on the Vet's list :6: Speed and drop in class Over :9: was all out at 13-1 in last :3: prefers this class
:2: :4: / :5: :1: :6: / :9: :3:

[woodbinepmi]

Results 8th
:9: - :1: - :3: - :10: Winner pays $ 12.90
Should get a lot out of that race with all the trouble in the first bend. Enjoyed, later.