danzing candy

[boys at tosconova]

i admit. i'm a positional handicapper. and with that i often use cheap speed horses, or horses up close..i really try and visualize the race and then apply scenarios.

running those fractions in the SA on the chocolate river was insane. especially that he really didn;t need to...which doesn;t help playing him in the KD, but the 3 races previous very strong. and the horse looks pretty fast.

he has to be given an excuse to some degree for the track condition and running this type of race in it. it looks like it could be a tightener, w/ the glass half full approach, rather than half empty with the can't rate or carry the distance approach

[CincyHorseplayer]

I've been thinking this for a while him romping on the lead and with the way races of this caliber are run these days it could very well happen. But I genuinely think Outwork, Nyquist, and even Destin could be right up there. I'm betting against them all! If we reach a point where speed doesn't ever fade and favorites never lose in the derby. Nevermind, that will never happen!

[PowerUpPaynter]

he was pressured a tiny bit by uncle lino and completely took off

[SecretAgentMan]

Any horse that takes off like he did in his final prep & loses by 13 lengths is a complete toss.

[ArlJim78]

AWD 6.0 out of a Songandaprayer mare.
He is fast but not derby winner material and even ignoring pedigree on his best race does not look like he's ready to carry his speed further.

[AirNate012]

The question is can he carry his speed to 10 furlongs...He obviously couldn't hold those insane fractions on the off track at SA @ 9 furlongs. But...if the pace wasn't as hot and he had reasonable fractions and turned for home up on the lead? Could he have enough gas in the tank to carry his speed home? Having Mike Smith helps...I'll include him on a couple tickets.

[f2tornado]

He's a Raise A Native which is a big Derby plus. He's also female family 1 which is a plus however the 1-l is a candle in the wind to the stellar 1-x and 1-n. A DI 3.80 with CD of 0.92 is just a little above Derby pars over the last decade. 12 dosage points a bit short but one of them is a solid point. I think this horse has an outside chance to hit the board. Mike Smith alone perhaps enough to toss on bottom of my trifecta. It would be outright theft for him to win it and simply cannot see it happen with some very good pacers in the race.

[Robert Fischer]

i admit. i'm a positional handicapper. and with that i often use cheap speed horses, or horses up close..i really try and visualize the race and then apply scenarios.

running those fractions in the SA on the chocolate river was insane. especially that he really didn;t need to...which doesn;t help playing him in the KD, but the 3 races previous very strong. and the horse looks pretty fast.

he has to be given an excuse to some degree for the track condition and running this type of race in it. it looks like it could be a tightener, w/ the glass half full approach, rather than half empty with the can't rate or carry the distance approach

Is Danzing Candy a player?


My gut says no, the numbers say yes.


With the point system, it's only a matter of time until a "cheap speed" cruises clear on the front end and gets brave, with more accredited contenders unable to wrest that initiative.

If this were a regular race, we wouldn't think twice about using a horse with an opportunity to wire, and being a little more forgiving about his shortcomings in exchange for that "head start" and clean trip.

I urge those who haven't already, to peruse the TimeformUS figs (see the Sticky Thread at the top of Triple Crown Trail as well as this quote):Thank you, TFUS and Cj, for the early Preview PPs for top 20 contenders!!

Its great to have all the figures (condensed) and running lines so EARLY. ;)

Here's the link for all who subscribe.

https://timeformusblog.com/2016/04/...e-triple-crown/ (https://timeformusblog.com/2016/04/18/see-2016-kentucky-derby-contenders-pps-our-speed-figures-for-the-journey-to-the-triple-crown/)

They incorporate pace into the figures so that a speed horse gets more credit if they went out on a Hot pace vs walking the dog on the lead. That's a very sound philosophy, and I think they do a pretty good job while making the effect subtle enough as to allow for your own interpretation.

DC - had his second fastest lifetime race in the SAD, in spite of that meltdown. His 110 or 111 from the SAD certainly doesn't eliminate him on figures.
He also went off 8/5 in a race that featured the Bob Baffert grinder Mor Spirit, and the hard-hitting Exaggerator.


An 'easy toss' that deserves some strong consideration particularly in positional handicapping.

[boys at tosconova]

Is Danzing Candy a player?


My gut says no, the numbers say yes.


With the point system, it's only a matter of time until a "cheap speed" cruises clear on the front end and gets brave, with more accredited contenders unable to wrest that initiative.

If this were a regular race, we wouldn't think twice about using a horse with an opportunity to wire, and being a little more forgiving about his shortcomings in exchange for that "head start" and clean trip.

I urge those who haven't already, to peruse the TimeformUS figs (see the Sticky Thread at the top of Triple Crown Trail as well as this quote):

They incorporate pace into the figures so that a speed horse gets more credit if they went out on a Hot pace vs walking the dog on the lead. That's a very sound philosophy, and I think they do a pretty good job while making the effect subtle enough as to allow for your own interpretation.

DC - had his second fastest lifetime race in the SAD, in spite of that meltdown. His 110 or 111 from the SAD certainly doesn't eliminate him on figures.
He also went off 8/5 in a race that featured the Bob Baffert grinder Mor Spirit, and the hard-hitting Exaggerator.


An 'easy toss' that deserves some strong consideration particularly in positional handicapping.

the horse romped in the san felipe and beat both exagge and mor spirit

[SecretAgentMan]

the horse romped in the san felipe and beat both exagge and mor spirit




This is why all 3 are easy tosses from the win spot for me.

[depalma113]

This is why all 3 are easy tosses from the win spot for me.

With the tomato cans running this year, nothing is an easy toss. Any one of these could win, even Ramsey's horse. The field is horrible.

[SecretAgentMan]

With the tomato cans running this year, nothing is an easy toss. Any one of these could win, even Ramsey's horse. The field is horrible.



For me, they're easy tosses from the win spot, for others they're "locks" that can't lose.

[boys at tosconova]

there's no doubt the horse is going to be a huge overlay. he had horse left in the tank while defeating exaage and mor in the san felipe.

i keep hearing the calli horses are better, so if you believe that, it also works in his favor. and regardless if anybody wants to believe it or not, running that sloppy track is a legit excuse.

[Valuist]

Any horse that takes off like he did in his final prep & loses by 13 lengths is a complete toss.

Maybe he just hated the off track. The way he ran off reminds me of Palace Malice in the Derby in 2013....and he rebounded pretty good in the Belmont.

[SecretAgentMan]

Maybe he just hated the off track. The way he ran off reminds me of Palace Malice in the Derby in 2013....and he rebounded pretty good in the Belmont.



If the track is sloppy again, it will make for a very interesting derby. Will Danzig go out in blistering fashion again? So many dynamics are changed because of the sloppy track.

BUT no matter if it was dry or sloppy, Smarty Jones was gonna win 2004, Mine that Bird was gonna win in 2009, Super Saver was gonna win in 2010 & Orb was gonna win in 2013.

Sloppy track screws with bettors minds, the only thing that may change is the pace setter & how fast he goes. By the way, all 3 of the horses I mentioned were stalkers & won in the slop.

[menifee]

Watch his uncle Sidney's Candy Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby and I think you will see what Danzig Candy is. If he can run a moderate pace with an easy lead, I don't think they will be able to catch him. If he can't make the lead or is challenged, I think he will struggle. If you get 20-1 or better, he's a play as I think there is a ok chance he gets that lead.