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Capper Al
04-24-2016, 02:20 PM
I have so many ways at looking at different racing factors that I confuse myself. I'm back at implementing pace into my rewrite. I have ten different views of pace and probably need to add two more aggregations for it to work. This doesn't count Dave's recent outlook at pace or Giles'. Pace answers at least two things- Can the horse be at the needed call, and the pace rating. Pace rating may not have any value since it is a similar factor to speed and speed triumphs all other factors. Willing to share any successful methods of implementing pace? Is there any value to pace outside of making the call?

Tom
04-24-2016, 05:34 PM
Go here and search - the topic if fully discussed www.paceadvantage.com

Capper Al
04-24-2016, 08:46 PM
Go here and search - the topic if fully discussed www.paceadvantage.com

I guess it's no comment? That's okay.

NorCalGreg
04-24-2016, 09:00 PM
Go here and search - the topic if fully discussed www.paceadvantage.com

We can't revisit this Tom? We need to update our info.

Those PA old timers were using Taulbot slide rules and sh*t.

Capper Al
04-24-2016, 10:06 PM
Using last race pace has some benefit as a possible form indicator by answering the question, "Did the horse get to his needed call last race?". Using best pace in a similar race is always good because like gets like is always our best indicators. Now we live in an era of not using key races. I have a problem with using a non-key combination of races like best of last four races or best two out of the last three. I think I'll review Dave's pace video for now. By the way, Ray's calculator does work a bit. Maybe all that's needed is to bring it up-to-date. Handicapping is more sophisticated nowadays. The public is hitting 38% verse 33% in the past. Nothing like a good conversation on horses if we can get one going here.

NorCalGreg
04-24-2016, 10:55 PM
Using last race pace has some benefit as a possible form indicator by answering the question, "Did the horse get to his needed call last race?". Using best pace in a similar race is always good because like gets like is always our best indicators. Now we live in an era of not using key races. I have a problem with using a non-key combination of races like best of last four races or best two out of the last three. I think I'll review Dave's pace video for now. By the way, Ray's calculator does work a bit. Maybe all that's needed is to bring it up-to-date. Handicapping is more sophisticated nowadays. The public is hitting 38% verse 33% in the past. Nothing like a good conversation on horses if we can get one going here.


Before computers, Taulbot had legions of followers with his slide-rule.

As with any point of handicapping--I always use as near the last race as I can get.
I hear some say they don't even look at the last race--doesn't figure into their handicapping approach at all. I say that's a bunch of hooey--if anyone can show me any stat, anything at all....that shows the last race is NOT the most important in the grand scheme of deducing a winner--I'll give them $100.
How can you note improving/declining form, speed, pace, trainer intent--without the last race?

Now having said that---with most of my mechanical approaches--I use the best of last two--almost universally. Going farther back turns what should be a pamphlet---into "War and Peace".

dansan
04-25-2016, 01:35 AM
pace is over rated :eek:

NorCalGreg
04-25-2016, 03:01 AM
pace is over rated :eek:

How profound...







🚽

Speed Figure
04-25-2016, 05:12 AM
Before computers, Taulbot had legions of followers with his slide-rule.

As with any point of handicapping--I always use as near the last race as I can get.
I hear some say they don't even look at the last race--doesn't figure into their handicapping approach at all. I say that's a bunch of hooey--if anyone can show me any stat, anything at all....that shows the last race is NOT the most important in the grand scheme of deducing a winner--I'll give them $100.
How can you note improving/declining form, speed, pace, trainer intent--without the last race?

Now having said that---with most of my mechanical approaches--I use the best of last two--almost universally. Going farther back turns what should be a pamphlet---into "War and Peace".I really could care less about a horses last race. When playing minor tracks horses can lose there last two or three starts by 50+ lengths. I like going back into a horses pp's within a set about of days. I generally don't know the trainer intent and don't care. I may be able to see when a horse may be using a race as a prep, but I don't know the trainer intent of a $5000 claiming horse. I'm playing the numbers over everything else. I became a far better player once I stopped doing the best of last 2, best of last 3 and the best of this type of handicapping.

pandy
04-25-2016, 07:29 AM
I really could care less about a horses last race. When playing minor tracks horses can lose there last two or three starts by 50+ lengths. I like going back into a horses pp's within a set about of days. I generally don't know the trainer intent and don't care. I may be able to see when a horse may be using a race as a prep, but I don't know the trainer intent of a $5000 claiming horse. I'm playing the numbers over everything else. I became a far better player once I stopped doing the best of last 2, best of last 3 and the best of this type of handicapping.

Do you play mostly longshots?

Capper Al
04-25-2016, 07:33 AM
Thanks for starting the discussion. I'd like to keep the discussion going on the "use of pace" not pace itself. Let's assume whatever way one comes up with pace works then how would you implement it?

Capper Al
04-25-2016, 07:44 AM
There could be many different uses for a pace fig. The last race might indicate shape. But what if the last race was on a different surface and/or distance? On the other hand, using a similar key race might indicate what a horse could do on today's surface and distance and has long shot potential. But if it is eight races back, we might not be talking about the same horse. Then there are various aggregates such as best of last two or best of last three etc. But many of these combinations may not contain a similar key race and days between races may screw analysis up even more. Just having a pace fig or any other factor(speed, class, etc.) doesn't do the trick all by itself. It's how one uses the stat that counts.

NorCalGreg
04-25-2016, 08:21 AM
I really could care less about a horses last race. When playing minor tracks horses can lose there last two or three starts by 50+ lengths. I like going back into a horses pp's within a set about of days. I generally don't know the trainer intent and don't care. I may be able to see when a horse may be using a race as a prep, but I don't know the trainer intent of a $5000 claiming horse. I'm playing the numbers over everything else. I became a far better player once I stopped doing the best of last 2, best of last 3 and the best of this type of handicapping.

You're playing 5K claimers, and neither know nor care about a trainer's intent?

Come on, Speedy...the horse has no say in what will be a prep race--and what will be a serious win attempt--that's part of Trainer Intent.

And how do you pare down the field to something manageable? You and I are not that different in handicapping methods....somewhere along the line I began using best of last 2---it works for me.
There is so much more to the art of handicapping than just sterile, soulless data. It has to be that way--if not it's just a boring, mindless electronic game.

I guarantee you put a lot more thought into your handicapping than just "playing the numbers over everything else"

have a good day

-NCG

traynor
04-25-2016, 12:01 PM
I think it is misleading for one to make the basic assumption (unproven in most cases) that how a particular horse will "distribute its energy" in a given race is predictable enough to be worthwhile. With a (very) few exceptions, horses generally respond to the jockey's urging (or lack thereof) and the trainer's intent (or lack thereof) more than to some hard-coded "pace preference."

Mine a decent size database for information on the races in which a given horse wins or finishes less than a length behind the winner. Correlate that with the horses position and beaten lengths at different points in the race to establish a "pace profile" for that particular horse. Do enough of those, and you will realize that a given horse's "pace preference" is more related to the riding style and preferences of its jockey than to innate characteristics of the horse.

Specifically, unless you have some convincing data to the contrary, to say that "pace is overrated" is an understatement. Again, with a few notable exceptions, horses win races because their jockeys took advantage of opportunities for advancement, and got their mounts to the wire first. (Crude "examples" from a handful of races are not considered "convincing.")

AndyC
04-25-2016, 12:37 PM
I think it is misleading for one to make the basic assumption (unproven in most cases) that how a particular horse will "distribute its energy" in a given race is predictable enough to be worthwhile. With a (very) few exceptions, horses generally respond to the jockey's urging (or lack thereof) and the trainer's intent (or lack thereof) more than to some hard-coded "pace preference."

Mine a decent size database for information on the races in which a given horse wins or finishes less than a length behind the winner. Correlate that with the horses position and beaten lengths at different points in the race to establish a "pace profile" for that particular horse. Do enough of those, and you will realize that a given horse's "pace preference" is more related to the riding style and preferences of its jockey than to innate characteristics of the horse.

Specifically, unless you have some convincing data to the contrary, to say that "pace is overrated" is an understatement. Again, with a few notable exceptions, horses win races because their jockeys took advantage of opportunities for advancement, and got their mounts to the wire first. (Crude "examples" from a handful of races are not considered "convincing.")

I think every horse has a best way of running and accordingly a best way to distribute energy for its best results. Call those innate characteristics. I would agree that jockeys certainly can alter a horses preference but generally to the detriment of the horse.

Speed Figure
04-25-2016, 12:57 PM
Do you play mostly longshots?Somewhat! I'm mostly a pick player, pick 3's, 4's & 5's. I also like boxing tri's.

You're playing 5K claimers, and neither know nor care about a trainer's intent?

Come on, Speedy...the horse has no say in what will be a prep race--and what will be a serious win attempt--that's part of Trainer Intent.

And how do you pare down the field to something manageable? You and I are not that different in handicapping methods....somewhere along the line I began using best of last 2---it works for me.
There is so much more to the art of handicapping than just sterile, soulless data. It has to be that way--if not it's just a boring, mindless electronic game.

I guarantee you put a lot more thought into your handicapping than just "playing the numbers over everything else"

have a good day

-NCG

What I'm doing works for me. Once I started doing these things everything got better. That's why I had the software done to do things with the click of a button. If I'm handicapping FTS, I will look at the trainer stats, but I don't know his or hers intent with the horse. I pair down the field by looking at my odds line and by how the horses rank. I also have to look at the "Danger Non-Contenders" horses that are down in the odds line, but may have a 1st or may rank 2nd in two different categories. Nothing works all the time! I lose lots of races, but when I'm able to catch that nice price in the pick bets or tri boxes, it makes up for it. Every race I post is handicapped the same way all the time.

traynor
04-25-2016, 12:58 PM
I think every horse has a best way of running and accordingly a best way to distribute energy for its best results. Call those innate characteristics. I would agree that jockeys certainly can alter a horses preference but generally to the detriment of the horse.

In very broad brush strokes, you may be right. However, the remarkably different pace scenarios in races in the US/Canada, when compared with the races in Europe, Australia, South Africa, South America, and wherever else would tend to indicate otherwise. Even within the context of different regions of the US, "pace preferences" are suspect.

When discussing the innate characteristics of horses, it is well to realize that races are an unnatural activity. Even more so when the races are of a specific distance. If energy distribution is an innate characteristics of thoroughbreds, they would tend to run the same way with or without the guidance of a rider.

DeltaLover
04-25-2016, 01:04 PM
I think it is misleading for one to make the basic assumption (unproven in most cases) that how a particular horse will "distribute its energy" in a given race is predictable enough to be worthwhile. With a (very) few exceptions, horses generally respond to the jockey's urging (or lack thereof) and the trainer's intent (or lack thereof) more than to some hard-coded "pace preference."

Mine a decent size database for information on the races in which a given horse wins or finishes less than a length behind the winner. Correlate that with the horses position and beaten lengths at different points in the race to establish a "pace profile" for that particular horse. Do enough of those, and you will realize that a given horse's "pace preference" is more related to the riding style and preferences of its jockey than to innate characteristics of the horse.

Specifically, unless you have some convincing data to the contrary, to say that "pace is overrated" is an understatement. Again, with a few notable exceptions, horses win races because their jockeys took advantage of opportunities for advancement, and got their mounts to the wire first. (Crude "examples" from a handful of races are not considered "convincing.")

:ThmbUp:

Great Posting...

AndyC
04-25-2016, 02:13 PM
In very broad brush strokes, you may be right. However, the remarkably different pace scenarios in races in the US/Canada, when compared with the races in Europe, Australia, South Africa, South America, and wherever else would tend to indicate otherwise. Even within the context of different regions of the US, "pace preferences" are suspect.

When discussing the innate characteristics of horses, it is well to realize that races are an unnatural activity. Even more so when the races are of a specific distance. If energy distribution is an innate characteristics of thoroughbreds, they would tend to run the same way with or without the guidance of a rider.

Pace scenarios are a function of surface and not based on some sort of regional custom. I believe that each horse has an optimal energy distribution profile which due to the variables present in any race is not often attained. The better a horse is the more success they will have even in off profile races.

Capper Al
04-25-2016, 05:11 PM
Please remember that the question in this thread isn't about pace theory. It's about pace usage and implementation. There are plenty of threads in PA that argue for and against pace. Here we assume anyone pace figure works and is correct. How would you use it?

DeltaLover
04-25-2016, 05:19 PM
Here we assume anyone pace figure works and is correct. How would you use it?


I think that your starting point and question are correlated.

What really means that a PF "works"?

I am assuming that the only way to prove it is that it leads to profitable bets, meaning that there exist a know way to "use" it, in such a way to reveal some value.

classhandicapper
04-25-2016, 05:22 PM
I would say it like this based on my experience.

Some horses are naturally faster than others. However, in races, it's typically the jockey that determines how much of a horse's speed to use to get position on the lead or near the front of the pack if they deem it to be an advantage on that surface.

Since most riders understand that speed is usually an advantage, they will generally use a horse's speed to get better early position. However, they will typically also try to avoid using a horse too hard early unless they find themselves hung out wide heading into a turn or on a horse that does not rate well.

Within that, you also have to remember that form changes, some horses might break especially well or poorly on that day, riders, trainers and owners can all read the DRF and project the likely pace and try to adjust to give themselves a tactical advantage. Complicating matters more is that multiple connections might adjust and the whole thing might backfire and go differently than expected.

All that said, I think if you stick to the extremes (especially for possible slow paced races), you can usually add some handicapping value to the analysis by looking at running styles and knowing the riders. I say slow paces primarily because races without much speed in them rarely wind up as fast paces (unless the horses are very lightly raced), but races with a lot of speed often don't wind up being fast paces because many connections are smart enough to see the risk and adjust so they don't blow finishing positions by using their horse too hard early.

Finally, when a track is especially speed favoring or tiring, the best riders will notice that also and adjust their level of aggressiveness.

NorCalGreg
04-25-2016, 05:43 PM
Please remember that the question in this thread isn't about pace theory. It's about pace usage and implementation. There are plenty of threads in PA that argue for and against pace. Here we assume anyone pace figure works and is correct. How would you use it?

This thread jumped the tracks a few posts back. I really don't want to debate all that intellectual mumbo jumbo--but some statements are flat-out ridiculous.

I think it is misleading for one to make the basic assumption (unproven in most cases) that how a particular horse will "distribute its energy" in a given race is predictable enough to be worthwhile. With a (very) few exceptions, horses generally respond to the jockey's urging (or lack thereof) and the trainer's intent (or lack thereof) more than to some hard-coded "pace preference."

Didn't Dr Quirin come up with a brilliant method to determine how a horse will "distribute it's energy"? He devised his Running Style & Speed Points "assumptions" 30+ years ago--proven highly accurate, and still very much in use today.
You're stumbling over your thesaurus trying to make the concept of Pace sound as difficult as possible.

Here's another gem: "Pace scenarios are a function of surface"

Hello...Earth to Andy---WTF? Pace scenarios are tweaked due to surface conditions, they arent a "function" of it.

Can we get back to discussing the reality of PACE?

PaceAdvantage
04-25-2016, 05:44 PM
Hello...Earth to Andy---WTF? Pace scenarios are tweaked due to surface conditions, they arent a "function" of it.

Can we get back to discussing the reality of PACE?Can you stop being an a-hole?

fiznow
04-25-2016, 05:44 PM
What I wonder is, are horses born for a special running style, is it in their blood? Is it a question of breeding? Or are they just trained for one? Would Zenyatta have won her races as a frontrunner? Would American Pharoah have won the triple crown as a closer? (Sorry if this doesn't fit in this thread but it just came to my mind). :blush:

NorCalGreg
04-25-2016, 06:02 PM
Can you stop being an a-hole?

That's "being an a-hole"? I recently made a valid point about track bias--you came on with one sentence and called me "staggeringly ignorant".

I know it's your site--but at least be fair about what's "being an a-hole". I vehemently disagreed with the previous posters--you took exception with the TONE of my reply.

PaceAdvantage
04-25-2016, 06:06 PM
That's "being an a-hole"? I recently made a valid point about track bias--you came on with one sentence and called me "staggeringly ignorant".

I know it's your site--but at least be fair about what's "being an a-hole". I vehemently disagreed with the previous posters--you took exception with the TONE of my reply.Damn right I took exception with the tone. What else should I have took exception to?

This isn't the first time. You have a habit of going off half-cocked on people who don't deserve it.

AndyC
04-25-2016, 06:46 PM
Didn't Dr Quirin come up with a brilliant method to determine how a horse will "distribute it's energy"? He devised his Running Style & Speed Points "assumptions" 30+ years ago--proven highly accurate, and still very much in use today.
You're stumbling over your thesaurus trying to make the concept of Pace sound as difficult as possible.

Here's another gem: "Pace scenarios are a function of surface"

Hello...Earth to Andy---WTF? Pace scenarios are tweaked due to surface conditions, they arent a "function" of it.

Can we get back to discussing the reality of PACE?

Thanks for the kind words.

With regard to distributing energy, speed points are hardly a "proven highly accurate" measurement. They merely indicate running style.

If the turf course is 12 inches tall and horses running a mile who go the first 6 furlongs in under 1:13 get run over in the stretch (circa old Del Mar turf course) would the surface be responsible for how the pace scenarios play out? Surface conditions are the surface. If they require "tweaking" then perhaps the pace scenarios are a function of the surface. Why else would pace scenarios be different in various racing locations around the world.

Speed Figure
04-25-2016, 07:27 PM
You're playing 5K claimers, and neither know nor care about a trainer's intent?

Come on, Speedy...the horse has no say in what will be a prep race--and what will be a serious win attempt--that's part of Trainer Intent.

And how do you pare down the field to something manageable? You and I are not that different in handicapping methods....somewhere along the line I began using best of last 2---it works for me.
There is so much more to the art of handicapping than just sterile, soulless data. It has to be that way--if not it's just a boring, mindless electronic game.

I guarantee you put a lot more thought into your handicapping than just "playing the numbers over everything else"

have a good day

-NCG

Here's a little baby bet from today. I didn't look at the trainer, don't know what his intent was, didn't care. I saw a horse who was ranked 1st for selected paceline and 2nd for projected pace figure and projected late pace. Made a simple little bet when the #1 was 9/1 at the gate, only to see it get cut in half to 9/2. These type of horses which I don't see a lot of that rank in the top two of projected pace and late are very good bets.

Capper Al
04-25-2016, 08:13 PM
Back to watching Dave's video on Early Speed. At least, he talks about implementing pace.

NorCalGreg
04-25-2016, 10:14 PM
Here's a little baby bet from today. I didn't look at the trainer, don't know what his intent was, didn't care. I saw a horse who was ranked 1st for selected paceline and 2nd for projected pace figure and projected late pace. Made a simple little bet when the #1 was 9/1 at the gate, only to see it get cut in half to 9/2. These type of horses which I don't see a lot of that rank in the top two of projected pace and late are very good bets.

You had an "auto-bet" situation....don't we all have at least one of those in our arsenal?
Here's one I found recently--using Quirin Running Style and Speed Points only. I didn't need to know anything further--to know this was a unique situation--and this pace scenario was tailor-made for a rare P-8 . He cannot handle any pace pressure at all.

This was a unique situation---as was your horse. My day-to-day 'capping usually requires more info than a pace box.

Cratos
04-26-2016, 12:39 AM
I have so many ways at looking at different racing factors that I confuse myself. I'm back at implementing pace into my rewrite. I have ten different views of pace and probably need to add two more aggregations for it to work. This doesn't count Dave's recent outlook at pace or Giles'. Pace answers at least two things- Can the horse be at the needed call, and the pace rating. Pace rating may not have any value since it is a similar factor to speed and speed triumphs all other factors. Willing to share any successful methods of implementing pace? Is there any value to pace outside of making the call?
Pace is fundamentally one of the most critical factors needed in projecting the final time of a horserace.

Why? Because it is the independent variable in race timing whereas final time is the dependent variable; pace is the "rate of motion" of the race or as I believe Tom Bohamer once wrote (and I might not have his quote exactly correct): "pace is the speed in which the race was run."

Therefore an easy method to implement pace of a race is to take the average pace for a particular class of horses at the track where you are handicapping for a given distance and plot the projected pace curve for the race you are handicapping as an overlay against the average pace (which will be a straight line) and the difference in the curves will be the "work performed."

The area above the average indicates a faster speed at that point of the race and the area below gives a lower speed and the value or size of the area which is calculated and you will have the energy expended.

Pace is not just surface-centric. Pace is primarily environmental-centric, but track configuration, distance, and race shape are important integral factors.

VigorsTheGrey
04-26-2016, 12:51 AM
Pace is fundamentally one of the most critical factors needed in projecting the final time of a horserace.

Why? Because it is the independent variable in race timing whereas final time is the dependent variable; pace is the "rate of motion" of the race or as I believe Tom Bohamer once wrote (and I might not have his quote exactly correct): "pace is the speed in which the race was run."

Therefore an easy method to implement pace of a race is to take the average pace for a particular class of horses at the track where you are handicapping for a given distance and plot the projected pace curve for the race you are handicapping as an overlay against the average pace (which will be a straight line) and the difference in the curves will be the "work performed."

The area above the average indicates a faster speed at that point of the race and the area below gives a lower speed and the value or size of the area which is calculated and you will have the energy expended.

Pace is not just surface-centric. Pace is primarily environmental-centric, but track configuration, distance, and race shape are important integral factors.

Now that Trakus is here I would think that better figures would be arrived at that somehow uses the average distance traveled including the average displacement instead of the published distance for the race which is always going to be shorter than this average, don't you think? Wouldn't that make for an adjustment to par times?

VigorsTheGrey
04-26-2016, 01:06 AM
Pace is fundamentally one of the most critical factors needed in projecting the final time of a horserace.

Why? Because it is the independent variable in race timing whereas final time is the dependent variable; pace is the "rate of motion" of the race or as I believe Tom Bohamer once wrote (and I might not have his quote exactly correct): "pace is the speed in which the race was run."

Therefore an easy method to implement pace of a race is to take the average pace for a particular class of horses at the track where you are handicapping for a given distance and plot the projected pace curve for the race you are handicapping as an overlay against the average pace (which will be a straight line) and the difference in the curves will be the "work performed."

The area above the average indicates a faster speed at that point of the race and the area below gives a lower speed and the value or size of the area which is calculated and you will have the energy expended.

Pace is not just surface-centric. Pace is primarily environmental-centric, but track configuration, distance, and race shape are important integral factors.

Cratos, can you post a screen shot of this side by side comparison of curves. I'd like to try to reproduce it using a manual method on an 8.5 x 11 sheet of paper...could I use the par times from Bris as the straight line average? And then choose a representative race from each horses' PP's?

Clocker
04-26-2016, 01:45 AM
And then choose a representative race from each horses' PP's?

Horses are herd animals and pace is a group effort. The composition of the herd changes from race to race.

If a lone "E" takes the lead and isn't pushed, the early pace is going to be a lot slower than if there are 3 "E"s fighting for the lead. The question isn't what is a representative pace for a horse, it is what is the horse capable of today, what it is the likely competitive pace today, and can the horse win against that pace.

pandy
04-26-2016, 11:16 AM
What I wonder is, are horses born for a special running style, is it in their blood? Is it a question of breeding? Or are they just trained for one? Would Zenyatta have won her races as a frontrunner? Would American Pharoah have won the triple crown as a closer? (Sorry if this doesn't fit in this thread but it just came to my mind). :blush:


I think ordinary horses are likely to disappoint if you try to change their style. Great horses like AP and Zen, I would think that they could have been trained to change their style and they still would have been successful.

pandy
04-26-2016, 11:23 AM
You had an "auto-bet" situation....don't we all have at least one of those in our arsenal?
Here's one I found recently--using Quirin Running Style and Speed Points only. I didn't need to know anything further--to know this was a unique situation--and this pace scenario was tailor-made for a rare P-8 . He cannot handle any pace pressure at all.

This was a unique situation---as was your horse. My day-to-day 'capping usually requires more info than a pace box.


what track was this?

VigorsTheGrey
04-26-2016, 11:31 AM
Horses are herd animals and pace is a group effort. The composition of the herd changes from race to race.

If a lone "E" takes the lead and isn't pushed, the early pace is going to be a lot slower than if there are 3 "E"s fighting for the lead. The question isn't what is a representative pace for a horse, it is what is the horse capable of today, what it is the likely competitive pace today, and can the horse win against that pace.

Thanks, I'll focus on those three items...A perfect example was Sat's Classic Stakes at Charles Town. Donworth simply could not win against the pace and position senario developed by Stanford...so I think a fourth consideration surely must include the shape of the course itself. If this race on Saturday was run on a complete straightaway...I think Donworth may have won...Pace and race positioning was the determining factor here no doubt...A good ride by Javier. Hope Donworth hits the charmed circle soon, He deserves it...

traynor
04-26-2016, 02:21 PM
Please remember that the question in this thread isn't about pace theory. It's about pace usage and implementation. There are plenty of threads in PA that argue for and against pace. Here we assume anyone pace figure works and is correct. How would you use it?

It can be safely assumed that if one is purchasing pace figures/pace analysis, whoever developed/marketed those figures should provide explicit, detailed instructions on how to apply them.

If those explicit, detailed instructions on how to apply them are NOT part of the package, one should rightfully consider why that is so. The more "interpretation" that is required, the more likely it is that the specific figures in question are simply descriptions, rather than prescriptions. The difference is critical.

Consider the simplistic average (or "projection") of positions at a given point in a race. The question is not whether or not the figures are "accurate"--they may be excruciatingly accurate in minute detail. The question is rather "do they really mean anything, other than describing what happened (rather than what will happen)"?

That is not theory--that is hardcore application. Consider Quirin's response to Beyer's question of how he used his (Quirin's) pace figures--"I look at them."
It may be that you are looking at/purchasing the wrong pace figures. The "right" pace figures should INCLUDE explicit, detailed instructions on how to apply them. If they do not, the reason may be simply that those figures are not particularly useful to other than the "I am the sharpest tack in the box, solving a great mystery" school of handicapping.

Rather than trying to make the pace figures (you are currently using or considering using) do something they are unable to do (predict future race scenarios), it might be more useful to find better pace figures. Or to look for (or develop yourself) the app that creates its own pace figures and uses those pace figures in combination with the pace figures/values/projections of all the entries in a given race to perform a (predictive) pace analysis of probable race outcomes. I chose the latter alternative. Not a trivial task, but well worth the effort.

Capper Al
04-26-2016, 07:26 PM
All my pace figures are mine or BRIS'. I have way too many figs of my own for speed, class, pace, timeform, jockey and trainer. So much so that I have totally confused myself as to which ones to use and when.

classhandicapper
04-26-2016, 07:47 PM
All my pace figures are mine or BRIS'. I have way too many figs of my own for speed, class, pace, timeform, jockey and trainer. So much so that I have totally confused myself as to which ones to use and when.

Welcome to my world. :lol:

Nutz and Boltz
04-26-2016, 07:54 PM
All my pace figures are mine or BRIS'. I have way too many figs of my own for speed, class, pace, timeform, jockey and trainer. So much so that I have totally confused myself as to which ones to use and when.


Information overload, a handicapper nightmare, when do you use which figures!

Capper Al
04-26-2016, 09:18 PM
Welcome to my world. :lol:

Sometimes I wonder if we all are not crunching the same numbers secretly.

Cratos
04-26-2016, 10:22 PM
Information overload, a handicapper nightmare, when do you use which figures!
There shouldn't be information "overload" because if you have that problem, you are just collecting data and not analyzing it.

Using someone else's processed data is very risky; especially if you don't know and understand their assumptions.

Speed Figure
04-26-2016, 10:37 PM
Sometimes I wonder if we all are not crunching the same numbers secretly.
I'm sure we are, but it's clear were not getting the same results!

Lemon Drop Husker
04-27-2016, 02:13 AM
All my pace figures are mine or BRIS'. I have way too many figs of my own for speed, class, pace, timeform, jockey and trainer. So much so that I have totally confused myself as to which ones to use and when.

So...., your own personal opinion is worthless against the "numbers"?

Capper Al
04-27-2016, 06:25 AM
So...., your own personal opinion is worthless against the "numbers"?

I'm going to assume your question was made from good intent. Personal opinions may not be worthless. There are number crunchers, form readers who build a picture in their mind of today's race(a.k.a. personal opinions), and there are some that do both. I wouldn't say any of them are worthless.

traynor
04-27-2016, 10:23 AM
There shouldn't be information "overload" because if you have that problem, you are just collecting data and not analyzing it.

Using someone else's processed data is very risky; especially if you don't know and understand their assumptions.

Good advice.

traynor
04-27-2016, 10:34 AM
So...., your own personal opinion is worthless against the "numbers"?

Personal opinions are good. They are even better when viewed as starkly as the numbers. Unfortunately, those who form personal opinions about "probable pace of today's race" tend to only remember the races in which their opinions were (at least roughly) correct, while totally ignoring the (many, many more) races in which their opinion was wrong.

The advantage of using one's own (computer-assisted) pace analysis is consistency. To achieve that consistency means tracking the failures (of pre-race pace analysis) as well as the successes.

cj
04-27-2016, 12:21 PM
Personal opinions are good. They are even better when viewed as starkly as the numbers. Unfortunately, those who form personal opinions about "probable pace of today's race" tend to only remember the races in which their opinions were (at least roughly) correct, while totally ignoring the (many, many more) races in which their opinion was wrong.

The advantage of using one's own (computer-assisted) pace analysis is consistency. To achieve that consistency means tracking the failures (of pre-race pace analysis) as well as the successes.

All that really matters is if the times you are right provide more winnings than the times you are wrong cost in losses.

So for example, if three times I say a horse has a clear early pace advantage and is worth a bet, but two don't even make the lead and lose badly but one wins at 8-1, I'm more than happy with my opinions.

aaron
04-27-2016, 01:26 PM
All that really matters is if the times you are right provide more winnings than the times you are wrong cost in losses.

So for example, if three times I say a horse has a clear early pace advantage and is worth a bet, but two don't even make the lead and lose badly but one wins at 8-1, I'm more than happy with my opinions.
Exactly, I bet a lot of horses 15-30 to win and in exacta's and other exotic bets. I don't have to be right that often. If you find lone speed horses at big odds who you think can get the distance,you will hit enough of them to make a profit. On the other hand,if you can find a horse who closed against pace advantage horses and are in a race which you perceive as favoring closers you will get even better prices than you would with a speed horse because of bettors preferring to bet the speed.

traynor
04-27-2016, 01:27 PM
All that really matters is if the times you are right provide more winnings than the times you are wrong cost in losses.

So for example, if three times I say a horse has a clear early pace advantage and is worth a bet, but two don't even make the lead and lose badly but one wins at 8-1, I'm more than happy with my opinions.
That is pretty much the same thing I said. "Personal opinions are good. They are even better when viewed as starkly as the numbers."

Personal opinions are bad when the successes are celebrated, and the failures forgotten. That can be costly.

Grits
04-27-2016, 01:33 PM
All that really matters is if the times you are right provide more winnings than the times you are wrong cost in losses.

So for example, if three times I say a horse has a clear early pace advantage and is worth a bet, but two don't even make the lead and lose badly but one wins at 8-1, I'm more than happy with my opinions.

Like when we all rented a house. You paid for your's and Elsie's entire weekend with the one bet I saw you make--all weekend.

Going off at 31-1, he won for fun.

Don't take too many of these, Traynor. What else ya got? :lol:

Grits
04-27-2016, 01:35 PM
That is pretty much the same thing I said. "Personal opinions are good. They are even better when viewed as starkly as the numbers."

Personal opinions are bad when the successes are celebrated, and the failures forgotten. That can be costly.

You've elaborated a bit. This is good! ;)

Capper Al
04-27-2016, 01:57 PM
Re-watched Dave's 'Understanding Early Speed' and enjoyed it again. Got my focus now, I just had to think about this for a while. Soon I'll have my death star going. It will be like the one in Star Wars at first, not 100% operational. But it should be better than the quick pick system I've been using while doing the re-write.

classhandicapper
04-27-2016, 04:16 PM
Pace is kind of like everything else in handicapping. The more extreme the situation the more likely you are to be correct, but the more likely the public will see it also and adjust the odds.

I think the proper application is somewhat dependent on your style.

If you are trying to assign an approximate odds line you are shooting for situations with greater accuracy and certainty as to what is going to happen. Then you can allow the odds to dictate your betting decisions.

If you trying to find angles and situations that are overlooked, you may be less concerned with accuracy in all cases as long as some of the more marginal, hidden, and uncertain ones light up the board often enough to offset your greater errors.

In my personal gambling I've used both approaches and still don't have much of an opinion as to which works better. I guess my thinking is kind of an intuitive blend of both. I often start with an angle I think may be somewhat hidden or misunderstood and then if the board screams at me I let the moths out.

Capper Al
04-27-2016, 06:00 PM
Pace is kind of like everything else in handicapping. The more extreme the situation the more likely you are to be correct, but the more likely the public will see it also and adjust the odds.

I think the proper application is somewhat dependent on your style.

If you are trying to assign an approximate odds line you are shooting for situations with greater accuracy and certainty as to what is going to happen. Then you can allow the odds to dictate your betting decisions.

If you trying to find angles and situations that are overlooked, you may be less concerned with accuracy in all cases as long as some of the more marginal, hidden, and uncertain ones light up the board often enough to offset your greater errors.

In my personal gambling I've used both approaches and still don't have much of an opinion as to which works better. I guess my thinking is kind of an intuitive blend of both. I often start with an angle I think may be somewhat hidden or misunderstood and then if the board screams at me I let the moths out.

Which way is most fun? Then specialize in it!