gun runner beer

[sbcaris]

How can Gun Runner's Beyer speed figure be so different from his Brisnet figure? For example: Beyer gives Gun Runner a 91 speed figure whereas Brisnet gives him 104.

Brisnet's 104 for Gun Runner is the highest in the whole field for the Derby
Beyers fig 91 puts Gun Runner as 10th from the top.

The two assessments for speed figs above are worlds apart. Can someone offer an explanation of why the big difference occurs?

[burnsy]

No, but this happens every year. A couple years ago I pointed it out at the Racing Museum seminar when they wanted questions. It points out to the fact that many of these speed figures are different, just like opinions. I've said many times on here, if that's your "secret" ......good luck. Here's what I like about this horse. First and foremost, I'm hoping his price is higher than his chances of winning. That's all I really care about. That's my basis for all of my key horses anyway. Secondly, he has things to like. This horse broke his maiden at a flat mile.....the shortest race he's ever run. He's got blood from both sides that suggest he will go farther than most. He gets better as the race stretches out.........he gets position, with cover and relaxes early and stalkers win most races when they can get the first jump. That's exactly how he does it and its not a mystery he keeps winning. Throw those numbers in the trash, this is one of the players if he gets a draw and a trip.

[Tom]

BRISNET speed figures are embarrassingly bad.

[Longshot]

How can Gun Runner's Beyer speed figure be so different from his Brisnet figure? For example: Beyer gives Gun Runner a 91 speed figure whereas Brisnet gives him 104.

Brisnet's 104 for Gun Runner is the highest in the whole field for the Derby
Beyers fig 91 puts Gun Runner as 10th from the top.

The two assessments for speed figs above are worlds apart. Can someone offer an explanation of why the big difference occurs?

It comes down to you believe which figure you want to believe.
Consider the following for Gun Runner.

Looking at Beyer speed figs 12 horses have run faster than Gun Runner in one of their last two races.

Looking at the "Sheet" numbers 11 horses ran faster than Gun Runner in their last race

Looking at Bris speed figs Gun Runners's 104 is 2 points faster than anyone

Using the old DRF Speed + Variant Gun Runner ranks 2nd only 1 point behind Creator

Looking at Dr Roman's performance figs for their last race Gun Runner
ranks 4th behind the top 3 finishers in the Arkansas Derby.

Looking at the Euro Globeform figs for their last race Gun Runner ranks 3rd
behind only Exaggerator and Brody's Cause.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I simply came here for the beer.

Where does one find Gun Runner Beer?

[SecretAgentMan]

IMO, this years beyer figures won't mean much toward who wins the KD

[VigorsTheGrey]

If all of the speed and pace figures are made using proprietary methods that are not disclosed to the public then how can the public know if there are errors in the reporting of the figures?

[Grits]

If all of the speed and pace figures are made using proprietary methods that are not disclosed to the public then how can the public know if there are errors in the reporting of the figures?

Again, someone else wants individuals to disclose their methods to the public. Inside two weeks prior to the Derby. Good luck!! :faint: I'm sorry, it doesn't work this way. If you're not comfortable, or do not trust the work of others. There's an exceedingly simple fix for this. DO YOUR OWN WORK. This, or stop obsessing, distrusting, and overthinking. You are not required to subscribe to anyone's methods.

Indicating you wanted to generate added income? With this kind of mindset, at least, until you create your own figures, variants, trainer stats, etc, etc--this may be next to impossible.

[ronsmac]

How can Gun Runner's Beyer speed figure be so different from his Brisnet figure? For example: Beyer gives Gun Runner a 91 speed figure whereas Brisnet gives him 104.

Brisnet's 104 for Gun Runner is the highest in the whole field for the Derby
Beyers fig 91 puts Gun Runner as 10th from the top.

The two assessments for speed figs above are worlds apart. Can someone offer an explanation of why the big difference occurs?I can't speak to Brisnet but some of the Beyers the last decade have been God awful.

[arw629]

Brisnet has been good to me but why do people care so much about the speed fig discrepancy over one race? Everyone has seen these races and connected the dots...everyone has an opinion...the only opinion that matters is the one that tabs winners

[dballard125]

Again, someone else wants individuals to disclose their methods to the public. Inside two weeks prior to the Derby. Good luck!! :faint: I'm sorry, it doesn't work this way. If you're not comfortable, or do not trust the work of others. There's an exceedingly simple fix for this. DO YOUR OWN WORK. This, or stop obsessing, distrusting, and overthinking. You are not required to subscribe to anyone's methods.

Indicating you wanted to generate added income? With this kind of mindset, at least, until you create your own figures, variants, trainer stats, etc, etc--this may be next to impossible.

Well look everyone...we got us a big shot here.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
If all of the speed and pace figures are made using proprietary methods that are not disclosed to the public then how can the public know if there are errors in the reporting of the figures?

What good would knowing do you? Are YOU going to go out do all the tracks everyday so you can tell? How you know what they used for projections make the variants?

Simple solution - make your own.

[whodoyoulike]

How can Gun Runner's Beyer speed figure be so different from his Brisnet figure? For example: Beyer gives Gun Runner a 91 speed figure whereas Brisnet gives him 104.

Brisnet's 104 for Gun Runner is the highest in the whole field for the Derby
Beyers fig 91 puts Gun Runner as 10th from the top.

The two assessments for speed figs above are worlds apart. Can someone offer an explanation of why the big difference occurs?

I haven't looked at this horse's pp's but apparently you have both Bris and Beyer for him. Just to provide some context to your post since he's only run 5 times, can you provide date, distance, finish, time, Beyer and Bris for each of his races from last to first race?

Thanks,

[Grits]

Well look everyone...we got us a big shot here.

Not really. But if you're here beyond your 12 posts, you'll learn that I don't suffer fools.

[Andrick]

I haven't looked at this horse's pp's but apparently you have both Bris and Beyer for him. Just to provide some context to your post since he's only run 5 times, can you provide date, distance, finish, time, Beyer and Bris for each of his races from last to first race?

Thanks,

Brisnet;

http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/sm_files/PPs_2016_Derby_Oaks_Contenders.pdf


DRF;

http://static.drf.com/DerbyContenders2016.pdf

[whodoyoulike]

Thanks, both methods indicate he's on the improve relative to each method which means I don't see anything out of place for him.

What does DRF's "C" mean again?

[Andrick]

Thanks, both methods indicate he's on the improve relative to each method.

What does DRF's "C" mean again?

Prett sure it means the pace of the race favoured closers. A 'C' in a black circle means that the pace was even more favourable to closers. Vice versa with the 'S'

[whodoyoulike]

Interesting because the race with the "C" he was 4th out of 11 at the first call which he won.

So, does it mean the closer horses were coming in the stretch?

I guess I can just look at the chart.

[PaceMasterT]

It comes down to you believe which figure you want to believe.
Consider the following for Gun Runner.

Looking at Beyer speed figs 12 horses have run faster than Gun Runner in one of their last two races.

Looking at the "Sheet" numbers 11 horses ran faster than Gun Runner in their last race

Looking at Bris speed figs Gun Runners's 104 is 2 points faster than anyone

Using the old DRF Speed + Variant Gun Runner ranks 2nd only 1 point behind Creator

Looking at Dr Roman's performance figs for their last race Gun Runner
ranks 4th behind the top 3 finishers in the Arkansas Derby.

Looking at the Euro Globeform figs for their last race Gun Runner ranks 3rd
behind only Exaggerator and Brody's Cause.

Fortunately, the handicapping world hasn't grasped this concept yet, but different conditions that cause track variants effect each horse in a different way, just like horses can run better on turf, all weather, or dirt to varying degrees. This is the best bit of wisdom you are ever going to receive, in general, fast variants favor fast horses and slow variants favor slow horses.

[sammy the sage]

I dont need more than 12 posts to see that you believe you're the smartest guy in any room that you walk into. I bet you're a thrill to hang out with.

you ain't as bright as you think you ARE...cause 1st of all....Grits is a SHE...and a well respected one at THAT...

[AirNate012]

I simply came here for the beer.

Where does one find Gun Runner Beer?

Lmao! :D my thoughts exactly

[whodoyoulike]

Judging one's intelligence level on their ability to determine gender thru a screen name on the internet. Brilliant.

Just my 2 cents, she is very sharp. Her reply to Vigors was correct. I think you should ease up.

[Zaf]

I simply came here for the beer.

Where does one find Gun Runner Beer?

:lol:

[VigorsTheGrey]

Again, someone else wants individuals to disclose their methods to the public. Inside two weeks prior to the Derby. Good luck!! :faint: I'm sorry, it doesn't work this way. If you're not comfortable, or do not trust the work of others. There's an exceedingly simple fix for this. DO YOUR OWN WORK. This, or stop obsessing, distrusting, and overthinking. You are not required to subscribe to anyone's methods.

Indicating you wanted to generate added income? With this kind of mindset, at least, until you create your own figures, variants, trainer stats, etc, etc--this may be next to impossible.

Overthinking is part of my nature...that, and overfoolery.... :)

[sammy the sage]

Judging one's intelligence level on their ability to determine gender thru a screen name on the internet. Brilliant.

You know what they say about A$$uming...

just thought I'd give ya a taste of yore OWN medicine...didn't care for it I see...imagine that... :faint:

Back to horse racing...Gun Runner is interesting...unfortunately the figure makers...at least 5 different ones...(beyer, tg, bris, tf, gf)...have wildly different figures on this race...makes it tough to decipher comparing to others...