dubai horses in our derby

[sbcaris]

It all started back in 2000 when China Visit who won the UAE Derby ran 6th in our Derby. Since then there were only 8 years when a Dubai horse ran in the Ky Derby. The following list shows who they were and how many starts they made as a 3 year old leading up to the run for the roses:

2000-------China Visit-----------1 start---------finished 6th
2001-------Express Tour--------1 start----------finished 8th
2002-------Essence of Dubai----2 starts--------finished 9th
2003-------Outa Here------------1 start---------finished 7th
2004 none
2005 none
2006 none
2007 none
2008 none
2009-------Regal Ransom--------3 starts -------finished 9th
2009-------Desert Party----------3 starts--------finished 14th
2010 none
2011 ------Master of Hounds-----1 start---------finished 5th
2012-------Daddy Long Legs -----1 start--------finished 20th
2013-------Lines of Battle --------1 start -------finished 7th
2014 none
2015 ------Mubtahij----------------4 starts ------finished 8th

In summary: Dubai was only represented by runners in our Derby for 9 years. In those 9 years only 4 horses had 2 to 4 starts at age 3. All the other 6 horses had only 1 start at age 3. Although they all ran out of the money I consider only 4 of them to be contenders (the four with 2 to 4 starts at age 3). Asking a horse to win our Derby after only one start at age 3 is an extreme longshot.

So, my view is as follows: Thru history UAE Derby runners have only had a chance to win the roses with 4 horses above. 0 for 4 isn't all that bad. This may be the year to break that trend since Lani is well bred for distance and has started twice at the age of three including a fast finish time at 1 3/16 miles.

[horses4courses]

Some year, the UAE Derby will have a winner that's
good enough to hit the board at CD, or maybe even win.

I wouldn't bet that it's going to be this year.
The finish in that race looked like an endurance battle
between some pretty sluggish horses.

The Japanese winner did not get a great trip, though.
He was much the best.

Looks like another toss. :ThmbDown:

[Frost king]

Almost every horse that comes back from Dubai is physically spent upon there return to North America. They usually don't hit the track until July to make the comeback. What would make you think, that this horse and especially a 3 yr old, could ship from Japan to Dubai to Churchill in a span of 10 weeks and win this race, when the best older runners wouldn't even try this campaign.

[horses4courses]

Almost every horse that comes back from Dubai is physically spent upon there return to North America. They usually don't hit the track until July to make the comeback. What would make you think, that this horse and especially a 3 yr old, could ship from Japan to Dubai to Churchill in a span of 10 weeks and win this race, when the best older runners wouldn't even try this campaign.

Valid point. :ThmbUp:

It's going to take an exceptional horse to do any good over here.

[SecretAgentMan]

Almost every horse that comes back from Dubai is physically spent upon there return to North America. They usually don't hit the track until July to make the comeback. What would make you think, that this horse and especially a 3 yr old, could ship from Japan to Dubai to Churchill in a span of 10 weeks and win this race, when the best older runners wouldn't even try this campaign.



Excellent point!

[fiznow]

They should run their horses in America 1 time before the Kentucky Derby, that would increase their chances imo.

[horses4courses]

They should run their horses in America 1 time before the Kentucky Derby, that would increase their chances imo.

Not feasible with the timing of the Dubai race.
Add in quarantine, etc., it's a no go.

You're better off with a fresher horse after that journey, imo.
Getting some decent jogging and work is just fine for most horses.

[Tom]

Zippy Chippy was 0 for 4 at one point....