A moment of clarity

[PowerUpPaynter]

Im sitting here going over the PPs and something just occurred to me. There is really only a couple of horses who could WIN this race. You can eliminate a bunch of horse on 2 things:

1. Just not fast enough

2. Not enough of a foundation

So iv narrowed it down to the following horses who can WIN the race:

in random order....

Nyquist
Creator
Mohaymen
Exaggerator
Mor Spirit
Destin
Whitmore

One of those horses will win this derby.

Gun Runner and Brody's Cause are close but I eliminate them based on low beyers a major move forward from a 91 i dont see. and im not a big beyer guy but they do help putting horses into groups


im starting to like Creator more and more

[forced89]

.....and I like Suddenbreakingnews.

[arw629]

Im sitting here going over the PPs and something just occurred to me. There is really only a couple of horses who could WIN this race. You can eliminate a bunch of horse on 2 things:

1. Just not fast enough

2. Not enough of a foundation

So iv narrowed it down to the following horses who can WIN the race:

in random order....

Nyquist
Creator
Mohaymen
Exaggerator
Mor Spirit
Destin
Whitmore

One of those horses will win this derby.

Gun Runner and Brody's Cause are close but I eliminate them based on low beyers a major move forward from a 91 i dont see. and im not a big beyer guy but they do help putting horses into groups


im starting to like Creator more and more


Whitmore? Really?

[SecretAgentMan]

Animal Kingdom went from a 94 beyer in his last prep to a 103 in the KD

Giacomo from a 95 to a 100 in the KD, that's right, we year Bellamy Road received a 120 beyer in the Wood.

Mine that Bird from an 80 to a 105.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Animal Kingdom went from a 94 beyer in his last prep to a 103 in the KD

Giacomo from a 95 to a 100 in the KD, that's right, we year Bellamy Road received a 120 beyer in the Wood.

Mine that Bird from an 80 to a 105.


the jumps from 94 or 95's im ok with. expecting a jump from 91 i better be getting at least 35 or 40-1. gun runner will be like 15-1 best case and Brody will be even less

[SecretAgentMan]

the jumps from 94 or 95's im ok with. expecting a jump from 91 i better be getting at least 35 or 40-1. gun runner will be like 15-1 best case and Brody will be even less


Who says the KD winner won't receive just a 101? You know I like Gun Runner, so we will be debating about these horses until after the derby, lol!

[PowerUpPaynter]

Who says the KD winner won't receive just a 101? You know I like Gun Runner, so we will be debating about these horses until after the derby, lol!



yeah and im going to change my mind numerous times before then.... just saw all Dale Roman's derby horses have finished top 4 except 1

Brody in the play for the super

[Andrick]

yeah and im going to change my mind numerous times before then.... just saw all Dale Roman's derby horses have finished top 4 except 1

Brody in the play for the super

He's had a few that didn't crack the super. Keen Ice and Medal Count the last couple of years, and he had Sharp Humor who finish 19th back in '06. In between those he did have three that finished in the super. So he's shooting 50% to get one in there.

Agree with your initial sentiments. Two weeks out I'm only seeing a handful in the field that are legitimate win candidates.

[PowerUpPaynter]

He's had a few that didn't crack the super. Keen Ice and Medal Count the last couple of years, and he had Sharp Humor who finish 19th back in '06. In between those he did have three that finished in the super. So he's shooting 50% to get one in there.

Agree with your initial sentiments. Two weeks out I'm only seeing a handful in the field that are legitimate win candidates.


and realistically its probably going to be Nyquist not because he is a world beater but because the rest of the field is crappy and he is somewhat above average

[Andrick]

and realistically its probably going to be Nyquist not because he is a world beater but because the rest of the field is crappy and he is somewhat above average

Narrowing my handful down even more I'd say Nyquist looks like, along with Exaggerator and Creator, one of the three most likely with my eyes.

[f2tornado]

I believe the Derby winner has had a top 8 BSF in a 9F prep since at least 2003. The top 8 this year if my eyes are correct:

Exaggerator - 103
Destin - 100 (not a 9F prep)
Creator - 96
Nyquist - 94
Mor Spirit - 94
Suddenbreakingnews - 94
Outwork - 93
Trojan Nation - 93
Whitmore - 92

These from above have final 3/8th in big 9F prep in 37.8 or less:
Exaggerator
Creator
Nyquist
Suddenbreakingnews

Of the smaller list above these have dosage index below 6:
Exaggerator
Creator
Suddenbreakingnews

Of these, the following have Raise A Native sire line.
Exaggerator

That's my top pick for the win. No use overthinking it.

[Andrick]

I believe the Derby winner has had a top 8 BSF in a 9F prep since at least 2003. The top 8 this year if my eyes are correct:

Exaggerator - 103
Destin - 100 (not a 9F prep)
Creator - 96
Nyquist - 94
Mor Spirit - 94
Suddenbreakingnews - 94
Outwork - 93
Trojan Nation - 93
Whitmore - 92

These from above have final 3/8th in big 9F prep in 37.8 or less:
Exaggerator
Creator
Nyquist
Suddenbreakingnews

Of the smaller list above these have dosage index below 6:
Exaggerator
Creator
Suddenbreakingnews

Of these, the following have Raise A Native sire line.
Exaggerator

That's my top pick for the win. No use overthinking it.

Both Exaggerator and Creator have that maintain and/or improve pattern to their BSF as well, which so many of the Derby winners of the recent past have shown going into the race. Street Sense is the only Derby winner over the last 23 who saw a regression in his BSF of over 3 in his final prep, and even that one can be excused since his number was at the mercy of the others crawling on the lead.

Exaggerator and Creator also have that very nice top, pair, top pattern on thorograph without any big jump ups in tops from either.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I believe the Derby winner has had a top 8 BSF in a 9F prep since at least 2003. The top 8 this year if my eyes are correct:

Exaggerator - 103
Destin - 100 (not a 9F prep)
Creator - 96
Nyquist - 94
Mor Spirit - 94
Suddenbreakingnews - 94
Outwork - 93
Trojan Nation - 93
Whitmore - 92

These from above have final 3/8th in big 9F prep in 37.8 or less:
Exaggerator
Creator
Nyquist
Suddenbreakingnews

Of the smaller list above these have dosage index below 6:
Exaggerator
Creator
Suddenbreakingnews

Of these, the following have Raise A Native sire line.
Exaggerator

That's my top pick for the win. No use overthinking it.

F2 once again we are on just about the same exact page. Because this Derby is wide open I will likely use 3 horses on the win line in a tri but at this moment Exaggerator meets all my requirements for a derby bet(and you covered them well) and I can live with his performances on off tracks. I think he is for real and his conditioning against the paces and horses in California puts him able to deal with any pace scenario. Only surprising sub 4-1 odds could change my mind. But it's early!

[bks]

Danzing Candy Ran a 100 Beyer, and beat Exaggerator and Mor Spirit doing so. That alone puts him above about 3/4 of the horses listed above.

[lamboguy]

these horses are all 3 year olds, i have no idea how you can eliminate a horse because he has lower beyer numbers or any other type of number. when they are that young they are constantly improving.

one probably thinks that because a horse has a lower number he can't improve his performance to much because he is coming from such a lower point. i couldn't disagree more. when you are dealing with young horses they go up and down the ladder in a blink of the eye.

[Stillriledup]

Just remember that pretty good young horses with talent can always jump up to a Beyer much higher than they have ever gotten, they have it in them.

Also, the beyers you're looking at on paper were not recorded under the current medication rules and tight security of the derby, just something to think about.

[f2tornado]

Danzing Candy Ran a 100 Beyer, and beat Exaggerator and Mor Spirit doing so. That alone puts him above about 3/4 of the horses listed above.

He folded like a tent at 9F and now needs to go 10F. He ran just like his dam sire Songandaprayer who ran the fastest first half mile in Derby history only to be gassed at top of stretch. I will be tossing this horse from the win pool and might toss entirely even though I respect the rider, Raise A Native both sides, and family 1.

[bks]

He folded like a tent at 9F and now needs to go 10F. He ran just like his dam sire Songandaprayer who ran the fastest first half mile in Derby history only to be gassed at top of stretch. I will be tossing this horse from the win pool and might toss entirely even though I respect the rider, Raise A Native both sides, and family 1.


Not sure what that race tells us. He got crushed, but he basically ran off that race. He went 22 flat, 45.1 on a heavy track he had no business travelling that fast over.

What if he only need to go 47.1 during the Derby?

He's the clear key to the whole race and very interesting in that he's the only one with a chance to dictate pace and wire the field, a la the San Felipe. If he and Nyquist are left alone on the front with a reasonable pace, forget anyone else winning. If he is somehow by himself through a 47.3 half and a 1.11.3 3/4, he'll need to have those distance limitations you're talking abut because if he doesn't he can come home in 51 seconds and earn roses.

[SecretAgentMan]

Not sure what that race tells us. He got crushed, but he basically ran off that race. He went 22 flat, 45.1 on a heavy track he had no business travelling that fast over.

What if he only need to go 47.1 during the Derby?

He's the clear key to the whole race and very interesting in that he's the only one with a chance to dictate pace and wire the field, a la the San Felipe. If he and Nyquist are left alone on the front with a reasonable pace, forget anyone else winning. If he is somehow by himself through a 47.3 half and a 1.11.3 3/4, he'll need to have those distance limitations you're talking abut because if he doesn't he can come home in 51 seconds and earn roses.



If he sets a soft pace, I guarantee you Outwork will be on his rear ready to.pounce on him. Nyquist will be breathing down both their necks at the top of the stretch or even sooner. I would love to see Danzig, Outwork & Nyquist fighting for the pace & lead & kicking out splits of 22 & 45 & have all 3 fold like cheap tents & have all longshots fill the super, but that probably won't happen, lol!

[f2tornado]

Not sure what that race tells us. He got crushed, but he basically ran off that race. He went 22 flat, 45.1 on a heavy track he had no business travelling that fast over.

What if he only need to go 47.1 during the Derby?

He's not those lone speed. Outwork could also be a huge factor dictating the pace in this race. Perhaps we see a Trinniberg and Bodemeiseter suicide up front with one holding on to a piece. There are too many solid pacers and closing horses in my opinion to use either on top. Neither has demonstrated any sufficient speed beyond 8.5F. Neither looked like War Emblem. I could be way off but seems like the type of setup that favors a stalker or mid-pack horse as the deep closers would have too much ground to make up.

[SecretAgentMan]

He's not those lone speed. Outwork could also be a huge factor dictating the pace in this race. Perhaps we see a Trinniberg and Bodemeiseter suicide up front with one holding on to a piece. There are too many solid pacers and closing horses in my opinion to use either on top. Neither has demonstrated any sufficient speed beyond 8.5F. Neither looked like War Emblem. I could be way off but seems like the type of setup that favors a stalker or mid-pack horse as the deep closers would have too much ground to make up.



I agree, I believe the derby winner will be a stalker or mid pack. The deep closers will be too far back, but there may be rain in the forecast, & we may be in for a wild ride.

[f2tornado]

but there may be rain in the forecast, & we may be in for a wild ride.

I am a degreed meteorologist and yes, a forecast model shows potential for rain May 7th but those forecast models are as accurate 12 days out as Andrew Beyer is picking a Derby winner.

[SecretAgentMan]

I am a degreed meteorologist and yes, a forecast model shows potential for rain May 7th but those forecast models are as accurate 12 days out as Andrew Beyer is picking a Derby winner.



Lmao, I agree!

[depalma113]

He's not those lone speed. Outwork could also be a huge factor dictating the pace in this race.

Outwork's last work sure looked like they won't no part of the lead.

[SecretAgentMan]

Outwork's last work sure looked like they won't no part of the lead.



I never understood why a trainer wouldn't try to rate his horse in his last prep before the derby instead of a workout before the derby. Doesn't the trainer want to see how his horse is gonna rate vs competition?

I don't think Outwork will be up front with Danzig, but he will be right behind him.

[Nitro]

I never understood why a trainer wouldn't try to rate his horse in his last prep before the derby instead of a workout before the derby. Doesn't the trainer want to see how his horse is gonna rate vs competition?

I don't think Outwork will be up front with Danzig, but he will be right behind him.
Not all trainers.
Your comment brings to mind what Laz Barrera did many years ago with his Derby speedster, Bold Forbes. He had him making 2 mile breezes before the Derby and later he ate them up going gate-to-wire.

[classhandicapper]

im starting to like Creator more and more

I'm not trying to talk anyone off Creator. He's good and improving. But I thought he got a pretty good pace setup and also saved quite a bit of ground in that last race relative to some of the other horses.

[dballard125]

Bump