Derby handicapping approach-no race like it.

[glengarry]

I heard it on Steve Byk's show this morning. I think he quoted Andy Beyer (could be someone else) as saying that the Derby should be capped like any other race. If it was Beyer, that would account for his abysmal derby selections over the years. The derby is like no other race in the U.S. Everything has to be taken into account: wind, temperature, humidity, elevation, even the Coriolis effect, the spin of the earth, comes into play.

The field size, the distance, the crowd noise, and the pressure on jockey and trainer all make this race unique. A few horses will lose all chance at the start. Others will wilt before they even enter the gate, as the sheer volume of noise will overcome them. Others will, for no apparent reason, just come up totally empty.

I know many here already have their derby choice. Just like Michael Corleone told Hyman Roth, I'm going to wait. I need to see the last 2 works for each contender. I want to see how they came out of the works. I need to wait for the PP draw, as I don't want to get locked into a horse then see him draw the one post. I may even wait to see how the track is playing, and check the weather forecast regularly. It generally takes a very special horse to win this race. That quality may only have been hinted at prior to the race, but it may soon, like Animal Kingdom, become apparent.

This year is a puzzler. The horse with the best resume is not particularly fast, at least according to Beyer and some other speed figures out there. Plus, he had a small hiccup after leaving Florida. The horse that seemed headed for possible favorite status threw in a clunker of the highest order. Wide trip or not, he didn't show up. I will not be looking to toss Nyquist if he trains up to the race beautifully and draws well. Some here are willing to do so. I have to have a reason, be it his appearance or lack of energy or composure in his works and gallops, or because I feel another horse has yet to show the greatness I know is there. I have not seen anyone that will make this race show me anything special yet. I'm also looking closely at Gun Runner, who may be a bit slow but has looked visually impressive in his recent races and who should get the trip. I won't be getting any news of note from TVG, as they are apparently fighting with Twin Spires and therefore won't be covering Derby and Oaks works as has been the norm over the last few years.

[SecretAgentMan]

Anyone that thinks they can handicap the derby like any other race is nuts, & if beyer whoever said that is nuts!

[boys at tosconova]

i'm not so certain this race is as wide open as many would like.

but i also thought zulu and cupid were going to be tough as well, and got no run from either.

it's pretty hard not calling out both nyquist and exaggerator on a 5 horse exacta box..it can get a little dicey after that, but there is a pecking order as well..i'm sure brody and mor spirit will be called frequently...and once the PP come out i expect the wise guy horse will be my man sam.

dunno what destin and outlook will be odds wise, but there are some good things w/ them as well

[burnsy]

Its sort of like any other race. But some people almost make things too hard. There's such a thing as "thinking too much." I see people over analyzing all the time. There's only a few outcomes, the race goes to form and you play the logical players......or there is a traffic snafu and all bets are thrown out the window, as in a pace meltdown or an incident.

The other thing I focus on which gets lost in the shuffle every big day is the undercard. Burnsy sees dollar signs in the big races other than the "big feature". I've been posting enough picks on here, its not a fluke that I do well on the big days. The feature is usually the "fluff"......not always, but most times. There's usually big numbers to be had logically playing the under card stakes. Statistical "over bets" and over lays are bountiful with the pool size.

Here's where its like "every other race". Along some of what glengarry said. You can't be on some horse months or even weeks in advance and expect to have a good play. You may get lucky and hit or maybe the chalk will win but its absurd to be "all in" on someone in advance. There's the weather, the defections (injuries, fever), the draw. Who in their right minds picks a race (other than this one) way in advance? Its fools gold. Like I said, it may be your lucky day, but that's not sound handicapping IMO. Yes, its like any other race....you try to know every variable before you pull the trigger. At least have that "advantage" in your corner.

Common sense.....101. Too simple for smart people too get.

[clocker7]

One factor that rarely (if ever) gets mentioned is the disparity of weights for the last preps. People are always comparing speeds and adjusted ones in all of their intricacies, without mentioning that some only carried 118 while the SA Derby guys humped 124.

[fiznow]

I agree, the Derby is like no other race. But this is also the reason why I always considered betting in the Derby as fun. Because I just can't bet seriously and put a lot of money in a race with 20 3 year olds. Sure I select my horse and rout for him but the Derby is rather a watch race than a bet race for me.

[PaceAdvantage]

Anyone that thinks they can handicap the derby like any other race is nuts, & if beyer whoever said that is nuts!Of course Beyer is right.

The big different here, is that YOU should be capping EVERY race like you cap the Derby.

That's where you get it wrong.

[ronsmac]

Other than the obvious 19 or 20 horse field, with the elimination of the no chance sprinters who used to run every year and screw the pace up. The Derby seems much closer to a normal race than it has in decades. This is after the fact but the last 2 winners probably qualified as low priced overlays. Especially California Chrome who layed over the field in nearly every way. No sophisticated handicapping was needed. There's no dominant horse this year in my opinion but there are about 8 or 9 deep closers who look like automatic tosses on top.

[SecretAgentMan]

Of course Beyer is right.

The big different here, is that YOU should be capping EVERY race like you cap the Derby.

That's where you get it wrong.



So you say.

[glengarry]

Other than the obvious 19 or 20 horse field, with the elimination of the no chance sprinters who used to run every year and screw the pace up. The Derby seems much closer to a normal race than it has in decades. This is after the fact but the last 2 winners probably qualified as low priced overlays. Especially California Chrome who layed over the field in nearly every way. No sophisticated handicapping was needed. There's no dominant horse this year in my opinion but there are about 8 or 9 deep closers who look like automatic tosses on top.

Even if you toss 8 or 9 closers, you now have a 12 horse field to deal with. In other words, you casually, based on style alone, eliminated a little over 40% of the field, and you still have to deal with a 12 horse field, and that's just on the win end. Then how do you fill out your ticket, unless you are looking to take a win bet on a race that usually has enormous payoffs for the exotics. While I agree that not having no chance sprinters means that the pace can be more reasonable, you have Palace Malice going crazy on the front end, with the possibility that Danzig Candy does the same thing.

[PaceAdvantage]

So you say.Indeed I do.

Do you see how much time and effort people put into handicapping the Derby? Why do you think that is?

It really is JUST ANOTHER HORSE RACE.

99.9% of these people aren't putting anywhere near the effort they should into the 364 other days (or 363 since everyone is closed on Christmas), so they invariably look at the Derby as something "different" when it really isn't.

So the problem isn't Beyer. The problem is you. You're way over-analyzing the Derby and shortchanging every other race you handicap.

Beyer was right.

Yes, there are some things you might look at for the Derby that you might not look at for most other races, but then again, lots of races have something unique about them where you might concentrate or look at something you might not ordinarily look at for the majority of other races out there (like a full field of 2yo maidens).

[VigorsTheGrey]

I think Nyquist has a good chance of winning...but I think he may go off at 3-1.

I can get 3-1 on a horse anytime with much less competition. So from a wagering aspect betting Nyquist just to win seems like a bad bet to me.

His value comes in assuming he IS going to win, then singling him on top in the horizontals and verticals...Betting on who is going to run 2nd is real important here because THAT might unlock the vertical exotics bonanzas....

Assume Nyquist wins, then assume Exaggerator, or Gun Runner, or Creator for 2nd and then fill in and box the underside of the ticket with likely candidates....Then on another ticket, the same cold 1-2, but with boxcar longshots boxed for third and fourth...that's how some of my tickets will look like.

But you are right, I won't know exactly till racing day what the cold 1-2 will be...

[SecretAgentMan]

Indeed I do.

Do you see how much time and effort people put into handicapping the Derby? Why do you think that is?

It really is JUST ANOTHER HORSE RACE.

99.9% of these people aren't putting anywhere near the effort they should into the 364 other days (or 363 since everyone is closed on Christmas), so they invariably look at the Derby as something "different" when it really isn't.

So the problem isn't Beyer. The problem is you. You're way over-analyzing the Derby and shortchanging every other race you handicap.

Beyer was right.

Yes, there are some things you might look at for the Derby that you might not look at for most other races, but then again, lots of races have something unique about them where you might concentrate or look at something you might not ordinarily look at for the majority of other races out there (like a full field of 2yo maidens).



The derby might have been just like any other race back when 13 or less horses were running, but don't kid yourself now a days, there's 20 horses racing & its not like any other race, but then again, I don't have to convince you or anyone else with my opinion.

[ronsmac]

Even if you toss 8 or 9 closers, you now have a 12 horse field to deal with. In other words, you casually, based on style alone, eliminated a little over 40% of the field, and you still have to deal with a 12 horse field, and that's just on the win end. Then how do you fill out your ticket, unless you are looking to take a win bet on a race that usually has enormous payoffs for the exotics. While I agree that not having no chance sprinters means that the pace can be more reasonable, you have Palace Malice going crazy on the front end, with the possibility that Danzig Candy does the same thing.Anything is possible, but when you set a fast pace and blow up. Then there's a tendency to go a little slower next out. If Danzig Candy goes slower earlier which I expect, then he's a real threat. Nyquist has good tactical speed and a horse I bailed on a few days ago who I'm giving 1 more shot is Whitmore. He's probably a hanger but has been ridden incorrectly. He has lots of early speed and has been taken back. I'm hoping they use his speed and have him no worse than 4th on the first turn.

[SecretAgentMan]

I think Nyquist has a good chance of winning...but I think he may go off at 3-1.

I can get 3-1 on a horse anytime with much less competition. So from a wagering aspect betting Nyquist just to win seems like a bad bet to me.

His value comes in assuming he IS going to win, then singling him on top in the horizontals and verticals...Betting on who is going to run 2nd is real important here because THAT might unlock the vertical exotics bonanzas....

Assume Nyquist wins, then assume Exaggerator, or Gun Runner, or Creator for 2nd and then fill in and box the underside of the ticket with likely candidates....Then on another ticket, the same cold 1-2, but with boxcar longshots boxed for third and fourth...that's how some of my tickets will look like.

But you are right, I won't know exactly till racing day what the cold 1-2 will be...


If you like Nyquist on top of exotics, do you winder how he will start the race? Like, will he try to wire the field? Will he stalk the pace? I know if Danzig Candy gets out & runs the same splits as in SA derby, Nyquist will burn up. Or will Nyquist fall back like his Juvenile race.

This derby is difficult in trying to figure out what some horses will do like Nyquist. We know what the closers will do, not a secret because they have only one way of running, but Nyquist has several.

[SecretAgentMan]

Anything is possible, but when you set a fast pace and blow up. Then there's a tendency to go a little slower next out. If Danzig Candy goes slower earlier which I expect, then he's a real threat. Nyquist has good tactical speed and a horse I bailed on a few days ago who I'm giving 1 more shot is Whitmore. He's probably a hanger but has been ridden incorrectly. He has lots of early speed and has been taken back. I'm hoping they use his speed and have him no worse than 4th on the first turn.



Whitmore reminds me of Giacomo, he's right there in his preps making big moves at the top of the stretch & coming within 1/2 length but hanging. Like the jockey knows he can win but he's holding him back for the derby, strange I know, but maybe he really is just hanging.

Whitmore is the only horse that shows that kind of move which could explode into a KD win.

[VigorsTheGrey]

If you like Nyquist on top of exotics, do you winder how he will start the race? Like, will he try to wire the field? Will he stalk the pace? I know if Danzig Candy gets out & runs the same splits as in SA derby, Nyquist will burn up. Or will Nyquist fall back like his Juvenile race.

This derby is difficult in trying to figure out what some horses will do like Nyquist. We know what the closers will do, not a secret because they have only one way of running, but Nyquist has several.

Trainer Doug has him on a different workout regime from a video that I say yesterday. If I remember right, had him galloping a long distance and then finishing up with his work...would this signal a pressing style? Maybe. I just think Nyquist has the tactical speed to adjust and as long as he is ahead of 75 percent of the field down the backside, he will be tough to beat. The horse is a smart horse and he will be adjusted to the big crowd having experienced that on BC day.

[glengarry]

Trainer Doug has him on a different workout regime from a video that I say yesterday. If I remember right, had him galloping a long distance and then finishing up with his work...would this signal a pressing style? Maybe. I just think Nyquist has the tactical speed to adjust and as long as he is ahead of 75 percent of the field down the backside, he will be tough to beat. The horse is a smart horse and he will be adjusted to the big crowd having experienced that on BC day.

For a horse with only 2 preps overall and only 1 2 turn race this year, I'm a bit puzzled how little is being asked of Nyquist in his works. Maintenance mode only on Saturday, with likely another easy work at the end of the week. His trainer has won the KD, so he must know more than me.

[glengarry]

Indeed I do.

Do you see how much time and effort people put into handicapping the Derby? Why do you think that is?

It really is JUST ANOTHER HORSE RACE.

99.9% of these people aren't putting anywhere near the effort they should into the 364 other days (or 363 since everyone is closed on Christmas), so they invariably look at the Derby as something "different" when it really isn't.

So the problem isn't Beyer. The problem is you. You're way over-analyzing the Derby and shortchanging every other race you handicap.

Beyer was right.

Yes, there are some things you might look at for the Derby that you might not look at for most other races, but then again, lots of races have something unique about them where you might concentrate or look at something you might not ordinarily look at for the majority of other races out there (like a full field of 2yo maidens).

It's just another horse race? Tell that to the trainers, jockeys, and owners. The race offers the chance at a life changing score for a relatively small wager. You don't have to compete for money with the CRW guys, aka, to some people, as the past posters, and the super trainers. You won't bet a 3 to one horse at the bell and watch him pay 5.40. The triples and exactas, even with favorites or a top 3 choice winning, are usually enormous. The race should be allotted extra time because the rewards are so worth it. More time needs to be spent because more information is made available to the public, especially videotaped workouts. Try getting them for any other race.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Everyone keeps saying how moderate the crop is this year and how low the Beyers...but if that is indeed the case, doesn't THAT point to using Nyquist as the obvious best of a mediocre crop? It just might be the year the BC Juv curse is lifted for that reason.

[SecretAgentMan]

Everyone keeps saying how moderate the crop is this year and how low the Beyers...but if that is indeed the case, doesn't THAT point to using Nyquist as the obvious best of a mediocre crop? It just might be the year the BC Juv curse is lifted for that reason.



BC Juv curse was broken in 2007 by Street Sense. And from memory, mediocre crops tend to bring longshots in as winners.

[luisbe]

I think Nyquist has a good chance of winning...but I think he may go off at 3-1.

I can get 3-1 on a horse anytime with much less competition. So from a wagering aspect betting Nyquist just to win seems like a bad bet to me.

...

I'd take 3-1 blinded and pulling bills from my 4 pockets. I think he'll be closer to 9-5.
Sit down and wait.

[SecretAgentMan]

I'd take 3-1 blinded and pulling bills from my 4 pockets. I think he'll be closer to 9-5.
Sit down and wait.




You think Nyquist will be 9-5?? Hmm....IMO, no way he's less than 5-2 on derby day.

[davew]

I think Nyquist has a good chance of winning...but I think he may go off at 3-1.

I can get 3-1 on a horse anytime with much less competition. So from a wagering aspect betting Nyquist just to win seems like a bad bet to me.

His value comes in assuming he IS going to win, then singling him on top in the horizontals and verticals...Betting on who is going to run 2nd is real important here because THAT might unlock the vertical exotics bonanzas....

Assume Nyquist wins, then assume Exaggerator, or Gun Runner, or Creator for 2nd and then fill in and box the underside of the ticket with likely candidates....Then on another ticket, the same cold 1-2, but with boxcar longshots boxed for third and fourth...that's how some of my tickets will look like.

But you are right, I won't know exactly till racing day what the cold 1-2 will be...


So do I, but I am not going to spend hours trying to figure the cold superfecta, trifecta and exacta- the races before and after to get the Pick-3's and 4's and doubles. I have done that in the past, and either miss a horse that pops in there, or include enough to have them all, but don't do much better than break even.

This year I am just going to bet NYQUIST to show. Unless something changes, I feel he has over a 70% chance of hitting the board and would be shocked if he paid less than $3.60

[VigorsTheGrey]

BC Juv curse was broken in 2007 by Street Sense. And from memory, mediocre crops tend to bring longshots in as winners.

Thanks for pointing that out...I had forgotten about Street Sense....but I don't think you can rightly say that Nyquist is a mediocre horse...I don't think we have seen the proverbial bottom of him yet and he looks to be getting bigger, stronger....

I sure wish North America would track actual weights of horses like they do in Hong Kong but I guess that would be asking too much of a highly disparate and de-centralized industry..

[SecretAgentMan]

Thanks for pointing that out...I had forgotten about Street Sense....but I don't think you can rightly say that Nyquist is a mediocre horse...I don't think we have seen the proverbial bottom of him yet and he looks to be getting bigger, stronger....

I sure wish North America would track actual weights of horses like they do in Hong Kong but I guess that would be asking too much of a highly disparate and de-centralized industry..


By no means am.I saying Nyquist is mediocre, I was just pointing out that you stated this Yeats crop was mediocre over all. Nyquist is 7 for 7, & he may win the derby, but to me his beyers & times are not to par for a 7 for 7 undefeated horse that's a derby favorite, but maybe they don't need to be with this years crop.

[davew]

By no means am.I saying Nyquist is mediocre, I was just pointing out that you stated this Yeats crop was mediocre over all. Nyquist is 7 for 7, & he may win the derby, but to me his beyers & times are not to par for a 7 for 7 undefeated horse that's a derby favorite, but maybe they don't need to be with this years crop.

I don't think winning by 30 lengths and getting a HUGE Beyer is in the best interest of anything.

[VigorsTheGrey]

By no means am.I saying Nyquist is mediocre, I was just pointing out that you stated this Yeats crop was mediocre over all. Nyquist is 7 for 7, & he may win the derby, but to me his beyers & times are not to par for a 7 for 7 undefeated horse that's a derby favorite, but maybe they don't need to be with this years crop.

There's the desire to be right about which horse wins the Derby...that's fine.

Then there is the desire to cash a ticket. One of my tickets will single Nyquist as most likely winner.

The other will place him in the 2 hole.

A/bcd/bcdefg
A/bcdefg/bcd

bcd/A/bcdefg
bcdefg/A/bcd

$48 of $1 Tri's

A=Nyquist
b=Gun Runner
c=Brody's Cause
d=Exaggerator
d=Creator
e=Destin
g=My Man Sam

[CincyHorseplayer]

It's just another horse race? Tell that to the trainers, jockeys, and owners. The race offers the chance at a life changing score for a relatively small wager. You don't have to compete for money with the CRW guys, aka, to some people, as the past posters, and the super trainers. You won't bet a 3 to one horse at the bell and watch him pay 5.40. The triples and exactas, even with favorites or a top 3 choice winning, are usually enormous. The race should be allotted extra time because the rewards are so worth it. More time needs to be spent because more information is made available to the public, especially videotaped workouts. Try getting them for any other race.

It is just another horse race. Why is this ever barely a player's perspective? It's different for the connections. That is not our reality. How often do you win it and how often is it a life changing score? Because these are 3yo's going 10 furlongs and the realities of this race are muddy waters even for any of us who are 20 yr+ handicappers. Looking at and betting thousands of races a year over a big span of time does put this particular race into perspective.It's 1 race. That's it. I'll end with my bold statement since everybody else is making bold statements. If this race is so amplified for you and of this utmost holy importance of hitting=you are f**ked! The rest of the year of your sorry game is going to beat you up and break you down and leave you bruised and butt naked if not broke! If 1 race is of this much importance it can't be any other way. I'm excited about it every year and especially this year because I do think there is big profit potential. But every year perspectives get warped and it becomes bigger than it actually is. As horseplayers I expect we all share the disillusionment equally and don't buy into the hype. The "Life changing score" chorus? It allows the unbridled freedom of stupidity to creep back in for players IMO. And I know because I've been down that road. Experience and Mint Juleps make the Derby day worthy! And occasionally the bet too :cool:

[jahura2]

It is just another horse race. Why is this ever barely a player's perspective? It's different for the connections. That is not our reality. How often do you win it and how often is it a life changing score? Because these are 3yo's going 10 furlongs and the realities of this race are muddy waters even for any of us who are 20 yr+ handicappers. Looking at and betting thousands of races a year over a big span of time does put this particular race into perspective.It's 1 race. That's it. I'll end with my bold statement since everybody else is making bold statements. If this race is so amplified for you and of this utmost holy importance of hitting=you are f**ked! The rest of the year of your sorry game is going to beat you up and break you down and leave you bruised and butt naked if not broke! If 1 race is of this much importance it can't be any other way. I'm excited about it every year and especially this year because I do think there is big profit potential. But every year perspectives get warped and it becomes bigger than it actually is. As horseplayers I expect we all share the disillusionment equally and don't buy into the hype. The "Life changing score" chorus? It allows the unbridled freedom of stupidity to creep back in for players IMO. And I know because I've been down that road. Experience and Mint Juleps make the Derby day worthy! And occasionally the bet too :cool:


Agree with Cincy wholeheartedly. Dont get me wrong I love the Derby, but it is just another betting opportunity. Usually it provides a chance for good value due to the amounts of "sentimental" and "uninformed" monies that are wagered. The race gets way over analyzed and you cant let the millions of opinions affect your basic strategy. As CJ said earlier it needs to be handicapped like any other race. Speed, Form , Pace and Class just like most races. I dont expect a life changing score but I do expect value for my bet, the same thing I look for whether its the Derby or the fifth at Tampa.

[Mc990]

I'd agree that most handicappers over analyze the Derby. That being said, IMHO, the Derby is another race like the Super Bowl is another game.

Not every Derby orSuper Bowl will provide value but when it does, it usually provides it in massive amounts.

Example... No way this past year you could have gotten Denver+6 on a neutral field if it were just another regular season game. However with all the unsophisticated money bet on the "Super Bowl", value bettors were able to spot a line that was probably off by 4 pts. Now you obviously won't win all those bets but when operating at such an advantage, you should come out way ahead.

Same principle applies to the Derby. Outside of maybe a Triple Crown being on the line Belmont Day, no other race has more unsophisticated money in it. The handicapping may be the same but the advantage you have should be much larger than any given day at the track. Plunge accordingly

[glengarry]

It is just another horse race. Why is this ever barely a player's perspective? It's different for the connections. That is not our reality. How often do you win it and how often is it a life changing score? Because these are 3yo's going 10 furlongs and the realities of this race are muddy waters even for any of us who are 20 yr+ handicappers. Looking at and betting thousands of races a year over a big span of time does put this particular race into perspective.It's 1 race. That's it. I'll end with my bold statement since everybody else is making bold statements. If this race is so amplified for you and of this utmost holy importance of hitting=you are f**ked! The rest of the year of your sorry game is going to beat you up and break you down and leave you bruised and butt naked if not broke! If 1 race is of this much importance it can't be any other way. I'm excited about it every year and especially this year because I do think there is big profit potential. But every year perspectives get warped and it becomes bigger than it actually is. As horseplayers I expect we all share the disillusionment equally and don't buy into the hype. The "Life changing score" chorus? It allows the unbridled freedom of stupidity to creep back in for players IMO. And I know because I've been down that road. Experience and Mint Juleps make the Derby day worthy! And occasionally the bet too :cool:

You mock the notion of a life changing score. For 99% of the people I see at any racetrack in America, cashing for a grand on a race is a life changing score, considering that it usually is many times their net worth.

There is a guy on another board. Very well respected. Used to play the game year round as a living. Decided to have a family and a more conventional life, so he gave up the game full time. He shows up on the board every year around May to offer derby opinions. When Big Brown won, he took over $200,000 out of the race. He talked about his wagering strategy ahead of time. He was like Babe Ruth calling the famous home run. I notice he doesn't post to discuss a 6 horse field of $5,000 claimers at Mountaineer who haven't won a race since Polk was president. Many of us here have families and dogs and homes and businesses that consume most of our time. The notion that the KD is just another race that deserves the same thought process, and time, as any other race is foolish. The arguments have been logically presented. It doesn't mean that Pace Advantage is wrong. I spent far more time consumed with my KD play that any other play, and have been well rewarded. Would I be well rewarded if I treated every other bet I made with the same respect? Perhaps, perhaps not. All I know is I have limited free time to handicap, and choose to use it on the race that offers the most upside and the pools not controlled by insiders or cheats. That's just my reality. The rest of you can do as you see fit.

[VigorsTheGrey]

You mock the notion of a life changing score. For 99% of the people I see at any racetrack in America, cashing for a grand on a race is a life changing score, considering that it usually is many times their net worth.

There is a guy on another board. Very well respected. Used to play the game year round as a living. Decided to have a family and a more conventional life, so he gave up the game full time. He shows up on the board every year around May to offer derby opinions. When Big Brown won, he took over $200,000 out of the race. He talked about his wagering strategy ahead of time. He was like Babe Ruth calling the famous home run. I notice he doesn't post to discuss a 6 horse field of $5,000 claimers at Mountaineer who haven't won a race since Polk was president. Many of us here have families and dogs and homes and businesses that consume most of our time. The notion that the KD is just another race that deserves the same thought process, and time, as any other race is foolish. The arguments have been logically presented. It doesn't mean that Pace Advantage is wrong. I spent far more time consumed with my KD play that any other play, and have been well rewarded. Would I be well rewarded if I treated every other bet I made with the same respect? Perhaps, perhaps not. All I know is I have limited free time to handicap, and choose to use it on the race that offers the most upside and the pools not controlled by insiders or cheats. That's just my reality. The rest of you can do as you see fit.

I agree....and yet one of the questions in my mind is how to use Nyquist in the exotics? I think the case could be made for singling Nyquist in any of the 4 holes...Or do you swing for the fences and exclude him? This is a fundamental decision this year...I think he will be there...so my structure begins there....logically the first ticket structure would have him on top, then what?

[AndyC]

I'd agree that most handicappers over analyze the Derby. That being said, IMHO, the Derby is another race like the Super Bowl is another game.

Not every Derby orSuper Bowl will provide value but when it does, it usually provides it in massive amounts.

Example... No way this past year you could have gotten Denver+6 on a neutral field if it were just another regular season game. However with all the unsophisticated money bet on the "Super Bowl", value bettors were able to spot a line that was probably off by 4 pts. Now you obviously won't win all those bets but when operating at such an advantage, you should come out way ahead.

Same principle applies to the Derby. Outside of maybe a Triple Crown being on the line Belmont Day, no other race has more unsophisticated money in it. The handicapping may be the same but the advantage you have should be much larger than any given day at the track. Plunge accordingly

OK so the unsophisticated money theory makes its annual appearance. Please tell me who the unsophisticated players will be betting. How much of the pool is unsophisticated money? Why wouldn't the big sophisticated whales just swoop in and drive the overlays down with large bets?

Most unsophisticated players I know aren't making large bets and if they are they are usually doing so after consulting sophisticated players

[glengarry]

I agree....and yet one of the questions in my mind is how to use Nyquist in the exotics? I think the case could be made for singling Nyquist in any of the 4 holes...Or do you swing for the fences and exclude him? This is a fundamental decision this year...I think he will be there...so my structure begins there....logically the first ticket structure would have him on top, then what?

I always struggle far more on the underneath horses than the winner. Nyquist is not touting himself in the morning as a horse sitting on a huge race. The problem is that may be just him in the mornings. While many get fixated on who is fastest on the numbers, whether using Beyer, or TG or others, I think too many horses are so ill equipped for this race, based on distance, or running style, that expecting a horse to run anywhere near his number becomes a difficult endeavor. Unless his final work indicates there is something amiss, pitching Nyquist doesn't make sense to me.

[Spiderman]

I agree....and yet one of the questions in my mind is how to use Nyquist in the exotics? I think the case could be made for singling Nyquist in any of the 4 holes...Or do you swing for the fences and exclude him? This is a fundamental decision this year...I think he will be there...so my structure begins there....logically the first ticket structure would have him on top, then what?

Depends on your budget for event and strength of opinion for other contender(s). Save your final decision for Derby day.

[SecretAgentMan]

You mock the notion of a life changing score. For 99% of the people I see at any racetrack in America, cashing for a grand on a race is a life changing score, considering that it usually is many times their net worth.

There is a guy on another board. Very well respected. Used to play the game year round as a living. Decided to have a family and a more conventional life, so he gave up the game full time. He shows up on the board every year around May to offer derby opinions. When Big Brown won, he took over $200,000 out of the race. He talked about his wagering strategy ahead of time. He was like Babe Ruth calling the famous home run. I notice he doesn't post to discuss a 6 horse field of $5,000 claimers at Mountaineer who haven't won a race since Polk was president. Many of us here have families and dogs and homes and businesses that consume most of our time. The notion that the KD is just another race that deserves the same thought process, and time, as any other race is foolish. The arguments have been logically presented. It doesn't mean that Pace Advantage is wrong. I spent far more time consumed with my KD play that any other play, and have been well rewarded. Would I be well rewarded if I treated every other bet I made with the same respect? Perhaps, perhaps not. All I know is I have limited free time to handicap, and choose to use it on the race that offers the most upside and the pools not controlled by insiders or cheats. That's just my reality. The rest of you can do as you see fit.



Agree 100%


I have 2 cousins that cap the smaller tracks & think they're great cappers, but neither has picked a derby winner EVER. Why is this? They say the same shit others are saying in here, that its just another race, & IMO, that's why they can't ever pick the derby winner.

You can not spend just 15 minutes capping the derby & have it all figured out like you can an allowance race at Belmont.

[VigorsTheGrey]

I always struggle far more on the underneath horses than the winner. Nyquist is not touting himself in the morning as a horse sitting on a huge race. The problem is that may be just him in the mornings. While many get fixated on who is fastest on the numbers, whether using Beyer, or TG or others, I think too many horses are so ill equipped for this race, based on distance, or running style, that expecting a horse to run anywhere near his number becomes a difficult endeavor. Unless his final work indicates there is something amiss, pitching Nyquist doesn't make sense to me.

Exactly. So if I am going to use Nyquist it make sense to single him in the spots with other selections and the singling process begin with him on top, then with him second....then if i want to go deeper, I have to make the decision to single him in the 3rd hole OR add more selections in the other holes.

At first thought I think a Nyquist/ Gun Runner AB/AB/,,,,/,,,, is attractive also.

[Mc990]

OK so the unsophisticated money theory makes its annual appearance. Please tell me who the unsophisticated players will be betting. How much of the pool is unsophisticated money? Why wouldn't the big sophisticated whales just swoop in and drive the overlays down with large bets?

Most unsophisticated players I know aren't making large bets and if they are they are usually doing so after consulting sophisticated players

Simple- the pools are too big and permutations too many for the pools to be efficient. "Whales" still have limited capital to work with.

To go back to my super bowl analogy, why wouldn't the sharp players have bet more to drive the spread down? There was not a single metric that made Car even close to a 6 pt fav yet the books were able to get close to 50-50 action

Remember Mubtaahij last year, remember the Borel horses in '10 and '11. Why were they allowed to go off as 100 percent+ underlays?

[AndyC]

Simple- the pools are too big and permutations too many for the pools to be efficient. "Whales" still have limited capital to work with.

To go back to my super bowl analogy, why wouldn't the sharp players have bet more to drive the spread down? There was not a single metric that made Car even close to a 6 pt fav yet the books were able to get close to 50-50 action

Remember Mubtaahij last year, remember the Borel horses in '10 and '11. Why were they allowed to go off as 100 percent+ underlays?

As far as football goes, everybody thinks there an expert so unsophisticated bettors are willing to wager large sums on the game. Just because your metrics had Denver doesn't mean that every sophisticated bettor shared your opinion or had your same metrics.

By what reference have you determined how big an overlay the Borel horses were in '10 and '11. If you took a poll of the forum which is comprised of mostly experienced and sophisticated players you would find the opinions varied wildly. Why? Because the Derby has far more variables that can have a major effect on the race an not every player views each variable in the same light. The Derby is usually complicated from a pace standpoint, position is important, the ability to handle the surface, the ability to get the distance, etc.

[dnlgfnk]

It seems to me Beyer would make that statement because, in my extensive reading of him, he has never moved from essentially being a selection handicapper, rather than a value handicapper, do to the hierarchical position black and white speed figures occupy in his approach.

The factors that govern the outcome of horse races don't magically change at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, but the built in percentages in the game change significantly in a 20 horse field. Many more scenarios, many more potential overlays.

[AirNate012]

You mock the notion of a life changing score. For 99% of the people I see at any racetrack in America, cashing for a grand on a race is a life changing score, considering that it usually is many times their net worth.

There is a guy on another board. Very well respected. Used to play the game year round as a living. Decided to have a family and a more conventional life, so he gave up the game full time. He shows up on the board every year around May to offer derby opinions. When Big Brown won, he took over $200,000 out of the race. He talked about his wagering strategy ahead of time. He was like Babe Ruth calling the famous home run. I notice he doesn't post to discuss a 6 horse field of $5,000 claimers at Mountaineer who haven't won a race since Polk was president. Many of us here have families and dogs and homes and businesses that consume most of our time. The notion that the KD is just another race that deserves the same thought process, and time, as any other race is foolish. The arguments have been logically presented. It doesn't mean that Pace Advantage is wrong. I spent far more time consumed with my KD play that any other play, and have been well rewarded. Would I be well rewarded if I treated every other bet I made with the same respect? Perhaps, perhaps not. All I know is I have limited free time to handicap, and choose to use it on the race that offers the most upside and the pools not controlled by insiders or cheats. That's just my reality. The rest of you can do as you see fit.

Who are you referring to?

I completely agree. Handicapping the Derby as every other race truly is "foolish" as you said. Think of the reward for hitting the $1.00 tri/super in the Derby vs. your average claimer or allowance race in a given year...enough said.

[Mc990]

As far as football goes, everybody thinks there an expert so unsophisticated bettors are willing to wager large sums on the game. Just because your metrics had Denver doesn't mean that every sophisticated bettor shared your opinion or had your same metrics.

By what reference have you determined how big an overlay the Borel horses were in '10 and '11. If you took a poll of the forum which is comprised of mostly experienced and sophisticated players you would find the opinions varied wildly. Why? Because the Derby has far more variables that can have a major effect on the race an not every player views each variable in the same light. The Derby is usually complicated from a pace standpoint, position is important, the ability to handle the surface, the ability to get the distance, etc.

I can agree with some of your points but I want to pose a question...

The handle on last year's derby was 138 mill (1 race). By comparison the handle for all 14 races on fla derby day this year was 32 mill. By any measure, fla derby day is always one of the best cards of the year and it still took 100 mill less than the derby alone.

Where is the additional 100 mill coming from?
- Professionals?
- Whales?
- Celebrities?
- $2 bettors
- Regular players that amp up their normal wagers?

[AndyC]

It seems to me Beyer would make that statement because, in my extensive reading of him, he has never moved from essentially being a selection handicapper, rather than a value handicapper, do to the hierarchical position black and white speed figures occupy in his approach.

The factors that govern the outcome of horse races don't magically change at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, but the built in percentages in the game change significantly in a 20 horse field. Many more scenarios, many more potential overlays.


With all due respect, you have no clue as to how Beyer handicaps. Beyer may be a selection handicapper but that is not because of some black and white vision of his speed figures. It is because most people reading his columns about the big races aren't terribly interested in an esoteric discussion about value, they want to know who is going to win.

I believe that he thinks the Derby is just like any other race to handicap precisely because the factors don't change. It is the analysis of the factors and the many more scenarios (as you point out) that make it difficult. The process remains the same but the job is much bigger.

[AndyC]

I can agree with some of your points but I want to pose a question...

The handle on last year's derby was 138 mill (1 race). By comparison the handle for all 14 races on fla derby day this year was 32 mill. By any measure, fla derby day is always one of the best cards of the year and it still took 100 mill less than the derby alone.

Where is the additional 100 mill coming from?
- Professionals?
- Whales?
- Celebrities?
- $2 bettors
- Regular players that amp up their normal wagers?


I think the answer is all of the above. But let's assume that the premise of unsophisticated money makes for some great overlays. Just tell where the unsophisticated money is going and why BEFORE the race. I would maintain that the multitude of difficult variables facing even the most sophisticated handicappers makes for wildly differing opinions. The hope is that your opinion is correct and in the minority of opinions.

[ronsmac]

I can agree with some of your points but I want to pose a question...

The handle on last year's derby was 138 mill (1 race). By comparison the handle for all 14 races on fla derby day this year was 32 mill. By any measure, fla derby day is always one of the best cards of the year and it still took 100 mill less than the derby alone.

Where is the additional 100 mill coming from?
- Professionals?
- Whales?
- Celebrities?
- $2 bettors
- Regular players that amp up their normal wagers?The last Florida Derby I bet was in 95 because I don't play Gulfstream. I've bet on almost every Derby since 86.

[PaceAdvantage]

It's just another horse race? Tell that to the trainers, jockeys, and owners. The race offers the chance at a life changing score for a relatively small wager. You don't have to compete for money with the CRW guys, aka, to some people, as the past posters, and the super trainers. You won't bet a 3 to one horse at the bell and watch him pay 5.40. The triples and exactas, even with favorites or a top 3 choice winning, are usually enormous. The race should be allotted extra time because the rewards are so worth it. More time needs to be spent because more information is made available to the public, especially videotaped workouts. Try getting them for any other race.Actually, it sounds to me, based on what you just wrote, that the Derby is the only race YOU should be betting all year.

[glengarry]

Actually, it sounds to me, based on what you just wrote, that the Derby is the only race YOU should be betting all year.

You may be right on that one.

[whodoyoulike]

... I think too many horses are so ill equipped for this race, based on distance, or running style, that expecting a horse to run anywhere near his number becomes a difficult endeavor. ...

Which number are you referring since none have ever run for this distance?

Btw, which other board did that occasional poster post in, just curious because I thought this was the only board where people discussed handicapping?

[dilanesp]

It is just another horse race. Why is this ever barely a player's perspective? It's different for the connections. That is not our reality. How often do you win it and how often is it a life changing score? Because these are 3yo's going 10 furlongs and the realities of this race are muddy waters even for any of us who are 20 yr+ handicappers. Looking at and betting thousands of races a year over a big span of time does put this particular race into perspective.It's 1 race. That's it. I'll end with my bold statement since everybody else is making bold statements. If this race is so amplified for you and of this utmost holy importance of hitting=you are f**ked! The rest of the year of your sorry game is going to beat you up and break you down and leave you bruised and butt naked if not broke! If 1 race is of this much importance it can't be any other way. I'm excited about it every year and especially this year because I do think there is big profit potential. But every year perspectives get warped and it becomes bigger than it actually is. As horseplayers I expect we all share the disillusionment equally and don't buy into the hype. The "Life changing score" chorus? It allows the unbridled freedom of stupidity to creep back in for players IMO. And I know because I've been down that road. Experience and Mint Juleps make the Derby day worthy! And occasionally the bet too :cool:

+1

Also, on "life changing scores", it's just as possible to make a life changing score in the last race on an ordinary card on Santa Anita where you spot the merits of a 60 to 1 shot in a full field of claimers and key him on a bunch of Super High Five tickets.

Sure, there might be slightly bigger bragging rates if you did it with Giacomo in the Derby, but the money's just as green either way.

[dilanesp]

Also, much of this "life changing score" talk is essentially just gambling and playing the lottery.

In other words, the dynamics of the Derby are no different than they would be in any relatively lightly raced large field of 3 year old stakes winners (except perhaps that in the Derby we know that everyone is going to be prepared to give maximum effort). And in such races, there are going to be times when the form doesn't hold up, because that happens with lightly raced 3 year olds. Sometimes a horse hasn't shown his true form yet, like Ferdinand, who turned out to be a really good horse who just hadn't shown it yet in the preps. Sometimes a horse will get brave on the lead, like War Emblem did. Sometimes the pace will fall apart and a big longshot will pick it up, like Giacomo. Sometimes a longshot might win on an off track, like Mine That Bird.

On the other hand, other times the race holds totally to form. Plenty of favorites have been winning lately, like American Pharoah, Big Brown, and Smarty Jones. And plenty of other totally logical horses who weren't favorites but were completely plausible have been winning, like I'll Have Another.

So when you bet longshots and try to make a big score, are you really doing that because there's anything about this race that is particularly conducive to longshots? Or are you just playing the lottery, seduced by the attraction of a potential gigantic jackpot?

I mean, it's fine to play the lottery if you want to, but let's not pretend that desire to score big in the Derby is the same thing as real handicapping logic.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I finished 4th last year but hit the Derby in 11, 13, 14. Had the tri in the 13 Belmont. Preakness is usually easy so no great shakes there. Anyway I'm not some non Derby hitter whose 1 race mentality is due to bitterness. That's a load of BS right there! I get that because of the pools it could be a life changing score. But life changing is when you realize that you can play tracks all across the country, at all times of the year, and the long run is your best friend. I get the 1 race life changer but I'm more satisfied with winning the big game. It keeps the mind calm, cool, and collected to where I can look at a race like this and know it isn't going to make or break me. It is 1 single race. I'm betting the hell out of this race this year but I'm not losing my mind about it for weeks on end! :D

[CincyHorseplayer]

Also, much of this "life changing score" talk is essentially just gambling and playing the lottery.

In other words, the dynamics of the Derby are no different than they would be in any relatively lightly raced large field of 3 year old stakes winners (except perhaps that in the Derby we know that everyone is going to be prepared to give maximum effort). And in such races, there are going to be times when the form doesn't hold up, because that happens with lightly raced 3 year olds. Sometimes a horse hasn't shown his true form yet, like Ferdinand, who turned out to be a really good horse who just hadn't shown it yet in the preps. Sometimes a horse will get brave on the lead, like War Emblem did. Sometimes the pace will fall apart and a big longshot will pick it up, like Giacomo. Sometimes a longshot might win on an off track, like Mine That Bird.

On the other hand, other times the race holds totally to form. Plenty of favorites have been winning lately, like American Pharoah, Big Brown, and Smarty Jones. And plenty of other totally logical horses who weren't favorites but were completely plausible have been winning, like I'll Have Another.

So when you bet longshots and try to make a big score, are you really doing that because there's anything about this race that is particularly conducive to longshots? Or are you just playing the lottery, seduced by the attraction of a potential gigantic jackpot?

I mean, it's fine to play the lottery if you want to, but let's not pretend that desire to score big in the Derby is the same thing as real handicapping logic.

Great post. :ThmbUp:

[SecretAgentMan]

A life changing pay day is hitting that 2005 super paying around $1 million. 2010 Super Saver super paid $102,000.....plenty of nice payouts, its just you gotta hit it.

Can you hit those at other tracks? Yes, but IMO, it takes a bigger miracle because the entries are small. For years you could count on big payouts in the derby, you can't count on big payouts in every race at the other tracks.

Last year the payouts were terrible, but like in 2014 with Chrome on top, the exacta comes back $340, absolutely beautiful payoff!!! & the triple paid $3,400 & super $15,000, where else can you get those kinds of payouts with a strong favorite on top?

You're playing the lottery when you're waiting for a payout like that in every regular race in 20 different tracks, but when the payouts of the derby are consistently paying out mega prices, its not playing the lottery if you can cap the race knowing from past derby's you will get paid big if you hit.

[VigorsTheGrey]

A life changing pay day is hitting that 2005 super paying around $1 million. 2010 Super Saver super paid $102,000.....plenty of nice payouts, its just you gotta hit it.

Can you hit those at other tracks? Yes, but IMO, it takes a bigger miracle because the entries are small. For years you could count on big payouts in the derby, you can't count on big payouts in every race at the other tracks.

Last year the payouts were terrible, but like in 2014 with Chrome on top, the exacta comes back $340, absolutely beautiful payoff!!! & the triple paid $3,400 & super $15,000, where else can you get those kinds of payouts with a strong favorite on top?

You're playing the lottery when you're waiting for a payout like that in every regular race in 20 different tracks, but when the payouts of the derby are consistently paying out mega prices, its not playing the lottery if you can cap the race knowing from past derby's you will get paid big if you hit.

In order to hit those kind of tickets, you have to bet those kind of tickets, which usually means boxcar/boxcar/boxcar/boxcar odds...

...it means assuming all the contenders run out...it means not using any of the logical horses....but strange things happen, and happen more frequently in horse racing than one thinks....

...it usually means losing but sometimes hitting a huge payout...and from what I gather from my years of listening and playing, it is still one of the few ways to beat the game...

...so I'm on your side on this one.

[Robert Fischer]

I suppose if you are a pro, that the Derby is just a potential value race.

Depending on a pro's specific edge, he or she may love the Derby, or may choose to pass the race altogether.

For the weekend warrior, the Derby is the Super Bowl of racing.

[glengarry]

Which number are you referring since none have ever run for this distance?

Btw, which other board did that occasional poster post in, just curious because I thought this was the only board where people discussed handicapping?

Not sure what you mean by your first question. Can't remember the poster's handle. I just call him The Babe.

[dballard125]

For the weekend warrior, the Derby is the Super Bowl of racing.

I live in Louisville and have spent a lot of time at Churchill during the Spring and Fall meets, over the past 25 years...and it's still my Super Bowl of racing.

[dnlgfnk]

With all due respect, you have no clue as to how Beyer handicaps. Beyer may be a selection handicapper but that is not because of some black and white vision of his speed figures. It is because most people reading his columns about the big races aren't terribly interested in an esoteric discussion about value, they want to know who is going to win.

I believe that he thinks the Derby is just like any other race to handicap precisely because the factors don't change. It is the analysis of the factors and the many more scenarios (as you point out) that make it difficult. The process remains the same but the job is much bigger.

After checking Byk's archives for April, it wasn't Beyer, so I will retract my response. But if you think Beyer readers wouldn't be keenly interested in discussions about value, than Beyer and Andy Serling have two significantly different audiences.

[whodoyoulike]

Not sure what you mean by your first question. Can't remember the poster's handle. I just call him The Babe.

I'm sorry, you mentioned "I think too many horses are so ill equipped for this race, based on distance, or running style, that expecting a horse to run anywhere near his number becomes a difficult endeavor."

The horses have never run 10f so where are you getting a horse's number for the derby.

Are you projecting a number from past performances because I would think that would be an algorithm problem?

And, I agree that it is difficult because we don't have any evidence that they can even handle the additional distance.

Regarding the second ??, I've checked other sites (1 or 2 at least) which have been mentioned on here but usually the discussions and postings are slim or infrequent. I was sort of kidding in my post but, if you've found another site which also has informative discussions, I'll give it a look. Currently, I pretty much get my racing info from DRF, Bloodhorse, Paulick Report and PaceAdvantage but not necessarily in that order.

[Mc990]

I'm sorry, you mentioned "I think too many horses are so ill equipped for this race, based on distance, or running style, that expecting a horse to run anywhere near his number becomes a difficult endeavor."

The horses have never run 10f so where are you getting a horse's number for the derby.

Are you projecting a number from past performances because I would think that would be an algorithm problem?

And, I agree that it is difficult because we don't have any evidence that they can even handle the additional distance.

Regarding the second ??, I've checked other sites (1 or 2 at least) which have been mentioned on here but usually the discussions and postings are slim or infrequent. I was sort of kidding in my post but, if you've found another site which also has informative discussions, I'll give it a look. Currently, I pretty much get my racing info from DRF, Bloodhorse, Paulick Report and PaceAdvantage but not necessarily in that order.

Check the thoro-graph forum archives derby week '08

[whodoyoulike]

Thanks, I'll check it out. Saved it to favorites.

[AndyC]

After checking Byk's archives for April, it wasn't Beyer, so I will retract my response. But if you think Beyer readers wouldn't be keenly interested in discussions about value, than Beyer and Andy Serling have two significantly different audiences.

Beyer can play to any audience that he needs to. His primary audience is/was people reading the Washington Post and not necessarily diehard race fans.

[Robert Fischer]

I live in Louisville and have spent a lot of time at Churchill during the Spring and Fall meets, over the past 25 years...and it's still my Super Bowl of racing.

I love it. :ThmbUp:

[glengarry]

I'm sorry, you mentioned "I think too many horses are so ill equipped for this race, based on distance, or running style, that expecting a horse to run anywhere near his number becomes a difficult endeavor."

The horses have never run 10f so where are you getting a horse's number for the derby.

Are you projecting a number from past performances because I would think that would be an algorithm problem?

And, I agree that it is difficult because we don't have any evidence that they can even handle the additional distance.

Regarding the second ??, I've checked other sites (1 or 2 at least) which have been mentioned on here but usually the discussions and postings are slim or infrequent. I was sort of kidding in my post but, if you've found another site which also has informative discussions, I'll give it a look. Currently, I pretty much get my racing info from DRF, Bloodhorse, Paulick Report and PaceAdvantage but not necessarily in that order.

Just want to clarify my point about horses running their "number" in the KD. I'm not trying to project a number for each horse at 1 1/4 miles. It's more of looking to identify those that will be poorly positioned to even approach their best. Distance concerns, post position draw, preparation through both racing and training all need to be factored in. Especially for those of us who do commit more time and assets to this race, for reasons that we see fit.

Some here find this to be just another race, in terms of approach and opportunity. That's fine. Everyone has to assess their own strengths and weaknesses. History has shown the KD works to my strengths as a handicapper. I would be crazy to alter my approach or emphasis for that reason. And Pace Advantage is right. Maybe I need to work on every race the same way. But we all have to make decisions that work for us.

[Grits]

All of this talk of time and assets? How we use both. How the score changes, or can change us. It's a horse race that we, somehow, can work day and night on, and still get wrong. How quickly we forget the ones that, according to our due diligence, didn't figure. How many came forth, here, and stated why they felt Commanding Curve would run second to Chrome in 2014? :lol:

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-payoffs

One knows, its all water under the bridge. And so will be our work, when surprised. A race that can often produce the unexpected, this is one of the few sure things about it.

Steve Crist in his book, Exotics Betting, addresses the tremendous undercard of Derby Day. Love the undercard...

[Lemon Drop Husker]

All of this talk of time and assets? How we use both. How the score changes, or can change us. It's a horse race that we, somehow, can work day and night on, and still get wrong. How quickly we forget the ones that, according to our due diligence, didn't figure. How many came forth, here, and stated why they felt Commanding Curve would run second to Chrome in 2014? :lol:

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-payoffs

One knows, its all water under the bridge. And so will be our work, when surprised. A race that can often produce the unexpected, this is one of the few sure things about it.

Steve Crist in his book, Exotics Betting, addresses the tremendous undercard of Derby Day. Love the undercard...

True.

I am actually more excited about the "uncerdard" on Derby day.

I'm really exicted about the "undercard" on Belmont Day. Wow. Sensational last year, and this year is the same spectacular.

[Grits]

True.

I am actually more excited about the "uncerdard" on Derby day.

I'm really exicted about the "undercard" on Belmont Day. Wow. Sensational last year, and this year is the same spectacular.

Belmont Day is the BEST undercard in all of racing!!!

[Stillriledup]

Indeed I do.

Do you see how much time and effort people put into handicapping the Derby? Why do you think that is?

It really is JUST ANOTHER HORSE RACE.

99.9% of these people aren't putting anywhere near the effort they should into the 364 other days (or 363 since everyone is closed on Christmas), so they invariably look at the Derby as something "different" when it really isn't.

So the problem isn't Beyer. The problem is you. You're way over-analyzing the Derby and shortchanging every other race you handicap.

Beyer was right.

Yes, there are some things you might look at for the Derby that you might not look at for most other races, but then again, lots of races have something unique about them where you might concentrate or look at something you might not ordinarily look at for the majority of other races out there (like a full field of 2yo maidens).

This is a great post, 100 pct correct.

People spend their 'lives' and SO many hours on the Derby but never spend even a quarter of that time on a five claimer at penn national.

The way I view it is that the 'derby' is only the derby to owners trainers and jocks. To me it's just another race. MY 'derby' is every race I wager on, those are MY 'derbies' I could care less about other people's derbies.

[SecretAgentMan]

This is a great post, 100 pct correct.

People spend their 'lives' and SO many hours on the Derby but never spend even a quarter of that time on a five claimer at penn national.

The way I view it is that the 'derby' is only the derby to owners trainers and jocks. To me it's just another race. MY 'derby' is every race I wager on, those are MY 'derbies' I could care less about other people's derbies.



I know plenty of guys like you that are broke like a joke from betting every single race. I live an hour from.Penn national, & use to travel up there back in the 90's. Once the OTB's opened up 10 minutes from my house, everyone went broke. I know one guy thatnloat 2 diners & 3 ice cream trucks because of horse racing & the sickness of the degenerate losing it brings.

My cousin.list $220k in 2 years at the OTB betting every race like you do. Not saying a few select can make money if they have the inside scoop, but overall, its a losing proposition.

I haven't played regular races since 1998, & will never go back to betting regular races. My cousin that lost that $220k, still plays every single day thru his online ebet account, its like a drug for him.

I sometimes walk into.the OTB to hang out with my cousin & its a sad setting, people pissed off at the world because they're losing their ass.

The derby offers a possible huge & quick payoff unlike any other sport. You can't bet $100 on the super bowl & get back $100,000, but you can on the derby.

My friends dad boxed 6 horses in the super in 2009 & hit half the super, he was sending the picture of his ticket yo whomever was on his phone. I was happy for the guy, & he didn't need to be a supposed "horse racing expert" to hit it, he boxed them because of the names.

Anyway, this is a horse racing forum, so I don't want to put horse racing down, but it does have its serious downfalls if you play every day.

[Grits]

SAM, you're here, each year, only for a little while. You post and share thoughts for weeks and weeks. If you didn't show one Spring, I'd wonder... "where's Sam, anybody heard from SAM?" To know, and to make a decision based on one's experiences or one's observation of other's experiences--however cautionary, is a fine, fine thing. Something to be greatly respected. ;)

I know plenty of guys like you that are broke like a joke from betting every single race. I live an hour from.Penn national, & use to travel up there back in the 90's. Once the OTB's opened up 10 minutes from my house, everyone went broke. I know one guy thatnloat 2 diners & 3 ice cream trucks because of horse racing & the sickness of the degenerate losing it brings.

My cousin.list $220k in 2 years at the OTB betting every race like you do. Not saying a few select can make money if they have the inside scoop, but overall, its a losing proposition.

I haven't played regular races since 1998, & will never go back to betting regular races. My cousin that lost that $220k, still plays every single day thru his online ebet account, its like a drug for him.

I sometimes walk into.the OTB to hang out with my cousin & its a sad setting, people pissed off at the world because they're losing their ass.

The derby offers a possible huge & quick payoff unlike any other sport. You can't bet $100 on the super bowl & get back $100,000, but you can on the derby.

My friends dad boxed 6 horses in the super in 2009 & hit half the super, he was sending the picture of his ticket yo whomever was on his phone. I was happy for the guy, & he didn't need to be a supposed "horse racing expert" to hit it, he boxed them because of the names.

Anyway, this is a horse racing forum, so I don't want to put horse racing down, but it does have its serious downfalls if you play every day.

[PaceAdvantage]

I know plenty of guys like you that are broke like a joke from betting every single race.This wasn't very nice. And you have no clue whether he's broke or not...and I really doubt he bets every race...but feel free to come off like a jackass for the 5 seconds you are here each year.

So sorry somebody has a different opinion than you about your beloved Derby... :D

[SecretAgentMan]

This wasn't very nice. And you have no clue whether he's broke or not...and I really doubt he bets every race...but feel free to come off like a jackass for the 5 seconds you are here each year.

So sorry somebody has a different opinion than you about your beloved Derby... :D


I didn't mean he was broke, I meant plenty of guys that bet every race were.

[PaceAdvantage]

I didn't mean he was broke, I meant plenty of guys that bet every race were.Then I sincerely apologize for being a jackass myself. It happens... :eek:

[Cratos]

I heard it on Steve Byk's show this morning. I think he quoted Andy Beyer (could be someone else) as saying that the Derby should be capped like any other race. If it was Beyer, that would account for his abysmal derby selections over the years. The derby is like no other race in the U.S. Everything has to be taken into account: wind, temperature, humidity, elevation, even the Coriolis effect, the spin of the earth, comes into play.

The field size, the distance, the crowd noise, and the pressure on jockey and trainer all make this race unique. A few horses will lose all chance at the start. Others will wilt before they even enter the gate, as the sheer volume of noise will overcome them. Others will, for no apparent reason, just come up totally empty.

I know many here already have their derby choice. Just like Michael Corleone told Hyman Roth, I'm going to wait. I need to see the last 2 works for each contender. I want to see how they came out of the works. I need to wait for the PP draw, as I don't want to get locked into a horse then see him draw the one post. I may even wait to see how the track is playing, and check the weather forecast regularly. It generally takes a very special horse to win this race. That quality may only have been hinted at prior to the race, but it may soon, like Animal Kingdom, become apparent.

This year is a puzzler. The horse with the best resume is not particularly fast, at least according to Beyer and some other speed figures out there. Plus, he had a small hiccup after leaving Florida. The horse that seemed headed for possible favorite status threw in a clunker of the highest order. Wide trip or not, he didn't show up. I will not be looking to toss Nyquist if he trains up to the race beautifully and draws well. Some here are willing to do so. I have to have a reason, be it his appearance or lack of energy or composure in his works and gallops, or because I feel another horse has yet to show the greatness I know is there. I have not seen anyone that will make this race show me anything special yet. I'm also looking closely at Gun Runner, who may be a bit slow but has looked visually impressive in his recent races and who should get the trip. I won't be getting any news of note from TVG, as they are apparently fighting with Twin Spires and therefore won't be covering Derby and Oaks works as has been the norm over the last few years.
You are absolutely correct; I have attended the Derby every year since Affirmed broke my heart by defeating one of my all time favorite horses in Alydar.

There is probably no other race in NA you where you can get good odds and lay 5-6 figures to win a copyand not change the tote board.

[pktruckdriver]

Steve Byk, great radio show, pretty darn good handicapper too, sorry not too sure of his Derby record, but 1 things is for sure he can handicap Saratoga very well. His insight and guests are extremely informative and have resulted in many great wagers that cashed at great prices, thank you Steve!!

As for the Deby everyone knows my obsession with this race, and now-a-days having OCD is kinda the in thing, so it doesn't bother me to be here this year playing the race and the undercard too.

The Pools and the opportunities speak for themselves, the payouts can be life changing for us minions, but the real fun is trying and playing it each year it comes around.

patrick

[AndyC]

Just wondering how all the uninformed money did yesterday. With the first 4 favorites finishing in order it would seem that the bettors were very informed.

[dilanesp]

Just wondering how all the uninformed money did yesterday. With the first 4 favorites finishing in order it would seem that the bettors were very informed.

LOL yeah. :)

For a race that is "unlike any other race", it sure seemed to turn out like a typical three year old stakes.

EDIT: To make a more substantive point, what has happened to Derby favorites really shows how invalid it is to make conclusions based on the small Derby sample size.

Before 2000, something like 20 straight Derby favorites lost. This became part of the folk wisdom of the race. "Don't bet the favorite!". (Two corrollaries were "don't bet the 2 year old champion" and "don't bet the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner. Those went out in 2007.)

In recent years, we've seen plenty of favorites winning the Derby. I'm sure that the small sample guys will start coming up with all sorts of theories why the favorites do so well. Maybe the breed has changed, too many horses are being entered with weak preparation, the gap between the top 3 year olds and the rest of them has widened, whatever.

But the obvious thing that has happened here is NOTHING. It's just statistical variance. Noise. There will be periods when lots of favorites win and periods when lots of favorites lose. And it doesn't necessarily mean ANYTHING.

Stop trying to see the pattern in the inkblot. Just handicap this thing using fundamentals. That would have gotten you to Nyquist, although the price was too short.

[horses4courses]

All the best handicappers were highlighting a lack of speed
which was likely to make the start of the race less hazardous
than most years. They were completely correct about that.

Hard to imagine a 20 horse field so well behaved running to the first turn.