PICKING WINNERS

[PIC6SIX]

What single handicapping factor gets you the most winners and which factor gets you the most longshot winners???

[Dave Schwartz]

Most winners is a complex factor within our software known as PSR (Projected Speed Rating). It is comparable to BRIS Prime Power and usually correlates closely with the tote board.

Most longshot winners would be a combination of 2 factors:

1) Ranks 1st for best workout rating in the last 45 days using a workout chart given to me 3 decades ago by a local man. If you write to me privately I will send it to you.

2) Final Odds about 13/1.

[pondman]

Winners-- Shippers.

Long shots-- Maiden winners for a repeat.

These are mutually exclusive plays.

[deelo]

Winners - lone pace angle

Longshots - my girlfriend likes the horse's name

[Nitro]

I’m not interested in “picking winners”. I’m only interested in making winning plays!

I guess over the years I’ve come to realize that anything can happen in a horse race. So rather than focusing on trying to pinpoint and play a single entry to win, I feel much more comfortable hedging my bets by either Dutching 2 or 3 entries or playing any one of the many exotics available AS LONG AS THE VALUE OF THE ENTRIES SELECTED WILL INEVITABLY PRODUCE A PROFIT.

I’ve found that the platform of the tote analysis I use fits this type of play perfectly. Once you get used to seeing specific betting patterns at certain tracks, finding 2 Key entries along with 2 or 3 others to play is not very difficult. Once that’s done then it’s just a matter of deciding which type of play to make. I also prefer this method because its allows me to focus more on the betting side of the game which I think is actually more important than any selection process.

[acorn54]

What single handicapping factor gets you the most winners and which factor gets you the most longshot winners???

i don't know the motivation for you asking.
i will attempt to save you a lot of time and money, and suggest you not carry forward what others tell you, to develop your decision base for handicapping on horses. how ever if you insist, i strongly suggest you do a PAPER run first. in my 35 years of engaging others i haven't found ANYTHING in horse racing that is set in stone that was told to me, except that anything can happen in a horse race.
if this sounds discouraging, join the club, the days of people using "funny money" to put on the horse of their favorite color, or name of horse, is all but non-existent. it use to be that the betting pools were 1/2 full, 5 minutes to post. now everyone is waiting for the "next guy" to lay his money down, to get the best idea of where the value is, in the race.
this money sport is one that is, on the one hand, a very social endeavor but, proper etiquette is not for" macy's to tell gimbles" so to speak, except in a very general nature as it pertains to the subject of decision model development.

[MitchS]

I’m not interested in “picking winners”. I’m only interested in making winning plays!

I guess over the years I’ve come to realize that anything can happen in a horse race. So rather than focusing on trying to pinpoint and play a single entry to win, I feel much more comfortable hedging my bets by either Dutching 2 or 3 entries or playing any one of the many exotics available AS LONG AS THE VALUE OF THE ENTRIES SELECTED WILL INEVITABLY PRODUCE A PROFIT.

I’ve found that the platform of the tote analysis I use fits this type of play perfectly. Once you get used to seeing specific betting patterns at certain tracks, finding 2 Key entries along with 2 or 3 others to play is not very difficult. Once that’s done then it’s just a matter of deciding which type of play to make. I also prefer this method because its allows me to focus more on the betting side of the game which I think is actually more important than any selection process.

Value, Yes indeed! Been discussed for years and in many places in these threads. For many years, I exclusively used a dutch betting strategy (betting on 2-3 horses to win) in most races. After a very long time of gathering results/records/looking at different variations etc. I came to the conclusion that the 3rd horse (weakest) in a 3 horse-dutch betting strategy needed to be dropped for enhanced long term profits. I would recommend anyone using these types of strategies to limit their plays to 2 horses max. However, there could be an occasional situation that could go against those rules.

The situation (race in question) is the key word there. With the numbers that I create. There may be a race where a (soul) dutch play could be warranted. Then again, there are other races where the favorite (Or other lower odds horse) could be in a prime higher probability situation. In those cases, you'd need to employ more of a value/hedge betting strategy. IMHO

BTW, my Astro-Data is coming up with some great longshot plays since you mentioned longshots.

[VigorsTheGrey]

I like to play so that all of my tickets are potentially cashable and do not negate each other.
If a 3 horse box for trifecta is played then you openly are playing five of six combos that cannot win hoping to cash on one...I know that anything CAN happen but when it does it can only be in one order, except for ties.

[pondman]

5 minutes to post. now everyone is waiting for the "next guy" to lay his money down, to get the best idea of where the value is, in the race.


I don't believe the most successful players really care how other people play. They play what works for them, which may or may not be counterintuitive to the majority. There was a time when I would talk about value, but not anymore. Sometimes you find yourself on a short priced horse because it's the best play, and you've got to go with it, unless it gets too short. Other times the crowd is totally wrong and you are on something with double digits. Hopefully a player develops their game to include a wide variety of prices.

[pondman]

I like to play so that all of my tickets are potentially cashable and do not negate each other.
If a 3 horse box for trifecta is played then you openly are playing five of six combos that cannot win hoping to cash on one...I know that anything CAN happen but when it does it can only be in one order, except for ties.

I wish I could play so that all my tickets are cash able.

I play tris in a group. When we cash, we cash big. But we lose in many, many more races than we win X 5. We'll go 3 or 4 days, sometimes getting clobbered bad. And then we'll hit enough to play for a month.

[arw629]

Finding first time starters with good gate drills keyword being gate that are bred well for the distance mixed in with how much the horse was bred for and if the horse was purchased....if the horse was purchased for less than it was bred for big red flag for me...all of these factors can lead to finding first timers at solid prices

[NY BRED]

ez;

Watch TVG, listen to the selections and toss those picks

:jump: :jump: :jump:

[fiznow]

There are endless ways of picking winners. And I heard some crazy ones. My favorite is, always play the grey horses with number 7. ;)

[Ocala Mike]

Second time starters in maiden races off "bad paper" in their first race. Example: LASSIE'S VICTOR in the 4th at Woodbine, 4/24, $47.80 (missed the exacta, though).

[no breathalyzer]

I don't believe the most successful players really care how other people play. They play what works for them, which may or may not be counterintuitive to the majority. There was a time when I would talk about value, but not anymore. Sometimes you find yourself on a short priced horse because it's the best play, and you've got to go with it, unless it gets too short. Other times the crowd is totally wrong and you are on something with double digits. Hopefully a player develops their game to include a wide variety of prices.

:ThmbUp: i been saying this for a very long time now... some people don't get it

[acorn54]

I don't believe the most successful players really care how other people play. They play what works for them, which may or may not be counterintuitive to the majority. There was a time when I would talk about value, but not anymore. Sometimes you find yourself on a short priced horse because it's the best play, and you've got to go with it, unless it gets too short. Other times the crowd is totally wrong and you are on something with double digits. Hopefully a player develops their game to include a wide variety of prices.


i will look into this. i am not one of the "most successful players". far from it. what i can say, is that in my 35 years of betting, my worst year i lost approximately 1000, that was only once, the mean was a few hundred a year, not including expenses. i will not go into the specifics of why i wait until i have a"ballpark" figure on the price on my horses head, but through experience it apparently increases my rate of return. unless i am missing something. like i said i will take what you have said under review.

[Augenj]

ez;

Watch TVG, listen to the selections and toss those picks

:jump: :jump: :jump: :lol:

My favorite is to always bet the only grey horse in a race if it's on the turf. ;)

[Overlay]

There are multiple factors with varying degrees of predictive power, but the more "obvious" a factor is, or the more any factor or factors is/are excessively relied on by too many people, the lower the resulting mutuels will be, and the more difficult profit will become.

If making money is the goal, the emphasis should not be exclusively on "picking winners" (that is, narrowing a field down to a single selection through a process of elimination or by the use of ratings of some type, and then betting it at any odds), but instead on giving each factor its proper weight in the overall picture, and looking for horses or combinations (whether -- based on the handicapper's preference -- they are the horse that the handicapper believes has the single best chance of winning a given race to the exclusion of all others, or not) that the public is misjudging and that have actual winning chances that are greater than are indicated by their odds or probable payoff.

[Capper Al]

What single handicapping factor gets you the most winners and which factor gets you the most longshot winners???

For me, it's more picking contenders nowadays since the public is doing so well with about a 38% win hit rate. I look for a contender with some odds on it to combine in an exotic wager.

[redeye007]

Pre 2005 it was easy to pick winners using Brisnet pace, speed and class figures.The player had a tremendous edge over the crowd and prices were quite lucrative. nowadays the entire world has discovered Brisnet. Even the odds makers , who weren't that good, appear to be using Brisnet. so the starting odds are very low in most cases and there appear to be at least five short prices in every field. then you've got the dutch bettors, wagering on several animals per race killing the prices even more. so how can we cash in a big ticket? Well we need to forget about the computer for a moment and all the pace ,speed class, turn time ,etc figures and look at each horses record. A good way to cash nice tickets is to figure out what the trainers intentions are today. I have good success with this angle: look at todays distance , surface and class. go back in the animals record and see when he or she last won. I don't like to go back any further than 4 or 5 races although there are always exceptions. make sure the distance , surface, and weights are the same for the winning race. the class has to be equal to or higher than todays and the weight should not be more than the animal carried when he or she won. If the animal is not outclassed by any other runner in the race it is an automatic play and the odds are usually high especially if the trainer has been darkening the horses form by entering it in races that are the wrong surface, distance, or higher class races in which the horse performed poorly. the more poorly the horse performed the better the odds will be. Today the trainer has found the perfect soft spot for his runner; his distance , his class , his surface, and favorable weights at which he wins. computer software and Bris files are great tools but sometimes peering into the horses' record can be very rewarding. :)