Worst Derby Favorite the last 20 Years

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Since 1996, who was the worst Derby favorite that you can recall?

In '99, the entry of Excellent Meeting/General Challenge was craptastic. Still not sure how they were favored.

In '02 the distance challenged Harlan's Holiday was chalk.

In '05, and likely winner, Bellamy Road got an unreal 120 Beyer in the Wood and got caught up in a wicked pace and folded hard.

In '06, my only favorite wager in the Derby of all time, Sweetnorthernsaint, clunked in 7th. :faint:

In '09, Friesan Fire completely imploded.

In '10, Lookin' at Lucky was favored much like SNS. Somebody had to be favored.

In '11, Dialed In was an incredibly weak favorite as a guaranteed deep closer that needed everything to go right for him to win.

Who you got?

[SecretAgentMan]

Bellamy Road IMO has to be the biggest fraud favorite I've seen. Horse won by over 17 lengths in the Wood & over 15 lengths in an allowance race prior to the Wood. He was burnt out going into the KD.

[arw629]

I can't remember but what price did Friesan Fire go off??? i guess I forgot he went favored ...i do remember pioneer of the Nile was the second choice but that derby had a lot of injuries in the weeks and months leading in if memory serves me right ...i remember I want revenge, quality road, dunkirk, and Old Fashioned to name a few that missed the race that probably all woukd have been favored that yr had they made it to the race ...it didn't matter tho bc no one was beating Mine that Bird that day

[horses4courses]

Bellamy Road IMO has to be the biggest fraud favorite I've seen. Horse won by over 17 lengths in the Wood & over 15 lengths in an allowance race prior to the Wood. He was burnt out going into the KD.

I'm thinking Bellamy Road could have beaten Dialed In by half a furlong.
He likely was burned out come the big race.

Lookin At Lucky was a decent horse.
He deserved to be favorite, but couldn't deliver for a variety of reasons.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I can't remember but what price did Friesan Fire go off??? i guess I forgot he went favored ...i do remember pioneer of the Nile was the second choice but that derby had a lot of injuries in the weeks and months leading in if memory serves me right ...i remember I want revenge, quality road, dunkirk, and Old Fashioned to name a few that missed the race that probably all woukd have been favored that yr had they made it to the race ...it didn't matter tho bc no one was beating Mine that Bird that day

FF went off at less than 4/1.

And yes, I Want Revenge scratched the morning of the race. Quality Road was solid that year but was injured before the Derby if I remember correctly. Dunkirk ran 11th that year as 2nd chalk . Old Fashioned? Don't remember that one.

Here is a great link at Equibase: http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Stakes&stkid=897

[Andrick]

I can't remember but what price did Friesan Fire go off??? i guess I forgot he went favored ...i do remember pioneer of the Nile was the second choice but that derby had a lot of injuries in the weeks and months leading in if memory serves me right ...i remember I want revenge, quality road, dunkirk, and Old Fashioned to name a few that missed the race that probably all woukd have been favored that yr had they made it to the race ...it didn't matter tho bc no one was beating Mine that Bird that day

Friesan Fire went off at 7/2. Dunkirk was actually in the race as well and went off as the 2nd choice at 5/1. He finished 11th. I think there's a good chance you'd be correct with the other three you mentioned, though.

[Andrick]

FF went off at less than 4/1.

And yes, I Want Revenge scratched the morning of the race. Quality Road was solid that year but was injured before the Derby if I remember correctly. Dunkirk ran 11th that year as 2nd chalk . Old Fashioned? Don't remember that one.

Here is a great link at Equibase: http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Stakes&stkid=897

Old Fashioned was the early hype horse that year. A lot of people were proclaiming him the Derby winner as early as Feb. He ended up getting injured in the Ark Derby and was retired.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Old Fashioned was the early hype horse that year. A lot of people were proclaiming him the Derby winner as early as Feb. He ended up getting injured in the Ark Derby and was retired.

Yep.

Went back and looked at him. Can't believe I don't remember him. Hammered chalk outside of his Maiden score.

[Tee]

2001 Point Given - 9/5 from the far outside post.

[minethatbird08]

Friesan Fire was pretty bad for a favorite. I think the Louisiana Derby was only 8.5 back then, that was his final prep. Fwiw, I had Pioneer of the Nile and not my name sake.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

2001 Point Given - 9/5 from the far outside post.

Can't see it.

PG went on to romp in the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell, and Travers. He was a 6 time G1 winner.

Arguably one of Gary Stevens worst rides as he was 4/5W early and throughout chasing a blistering pace.

[SecretAgentMan]

Friesan Fire was pretty bad for a favorite. I think the Louisiana Derby was only 8.5 back then, that was his final prep. Fwiw, I had Pioneer of the Nile and not my name sake.



Yeah, he won 3 in a row & his final.workout 5f in :57, I believe that sizzling bullet workout made him.the favorite.

[Andrick]

Yeah, he won 3 in a row & his final.workout 5f in :57, I believe that sizzling bullet workout made him.the favorite.

The track coming up as wet as it did on Derby day probably had a lot to do with his favouritism as well considering his open lengths win in his previous race over the slop that was the Louisiana Derby.

[Tee]

Do you really think he should have been 9/5 with his running style and that post position?

Remember you started the thread worst derby favorite.

We're not talking about his (or any other derby runner's) previous or subsequent races & most certainly not their entire body of work.

At that time horses with his post position were 0/29 in the Derby. That post position has yet to have a Derby winner.

IMO he was a bad Kentucky Derby favorite.


Can't see it.

PG went on to romp in the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell, and Travers. He was a 6 time G1 winner.

Arguably one of Gary Stevens worst rides as he was 4/5W early and throughout chasing a blistering pace.

[SecretAgentMan]

The track coming up as wet as it did on Derby day probably had a lot to do with his favouritism as well considering his open lengths win in his previous race over the slop that was the Louisiana Derby.



Yup, he ran 4 str at FG, & couldn't win as a 2 year old at Belmont or Aqueduct. He also never ran past 1 1/6 & he was an easy toss for me. He came in 18th by 42 lengths, lol!

[SecretAgentMan]

Do you really think he should have been 9/5 with his running style and that post position?

Remember you started the thread worst derby favorite.

We're not talking about his (or any other derby runner's) previous or subsequent races & most certainly not their entire body of work.

At that time horses with his post position were 0/29 in the Derby. That post position has yet to have a Derby winner.

IMO he was a bad Kentucky Derby favorite.



I threw PG out completely of all my tickets, I just didn't like him at all in the KD. Loved Monarchos, & felt PG's post terrible back then. But you really can't say he was a bad favorite because he showed before the derby he should be a favorite. His times were as good as Chromes the prep races before the derby. PG deserved to be a favorite that day, but doesn't mean I had to like him.

I thought he was definity beatable, unlike Chrome.

[Tee]

Look at the wording you are using. You threw him out of all your tickets. Felt his post was terrible. Loved Monarchos - why?

Point Given was a tremendous underlay in the 2001 Kentucky Derby. It was not hard to predict beforehand what unfolded during the running of the race.

That is why Point Given wasn't on your tickets, why he wasn't on my tickets.

That is why I will stand with my assertion that he was a bad 1.80/1 favorite in that race.





I threw PG out completely of all my tickets, I just didn't like him at all in the KD. Loved Monarchos, & felt PG's post terrible back then. But you really can't say he was a bad favorite because he showed before the derby he should be a favorite. His times were as good as Chromes the prep races before the derby. PG deserved to be a favorite that day, but doesn't mean I had to like him.

I thought he was definity beatable, unlike Chrome.

[Mc990]

Nyquist.

[SecretAgentMan]

Look at the wording you are using. You threw him out of all your tickets. Felt his post was terrible. Loved Monarchos - why?

Point Given was a tremendous underlay in the 2001 Kentucky Derby. It was not hard to predict beforehand what unfolded during the running of the race.

That is why Point Given wasn't on your tickets, why he wasn't on my tickets.

That is why I will stand with my assertion that he was a bad 1.80/1 favorite in that race.



Sure, I also didn't play him because he was such a big favorite that was vulnerable to lose.

But compared to other horses like Bellamy Road or Friedan Fire, Point Given was deservingly the favorite, doesn't mean I have to play him.

[clocker7]

I was at home watching Point Given on TV that day. I vividly remember watching Point Given going ape during the earliest stage of the walkover. It was captured from long distance by a TV camera using telephoto lens.

At home, another horseplaying family member had to explain to a female nonplayer why that was not a good sign, and how much CD is a zoo on Derby Day. It did not shock the two of us when PG was flat in the stretch.

I have never seen anybody else attribute his loss to his unsettled system or antics. In the process of writing this, I had the idea of contacting whoever was his groom that day for confirmation. I lucked onto this old article. Anybody know him personally?

http://espn.go.com/horse/news/2001/0405/1167870.html

[tanner12oz]

friesan fire was pretty bad...that was all slop related though

[f2tornado]

Nyquist.

Most any other year I'd agree but it sees we have the most distance challenged field in history this year. He could win simply because few others have shown much but I'm certainly not inclined to bet on his lousy dosage figures alone.

My vote is for Dialed In or Lookin At Lucky. Neither was heavy post time favorite at 5-1 and 6-1 respectively but both met almost none of my angles. Lookin' At Lucky was also on the dreaded rail.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Friesen Fire hands down. He finished dead last.

[arw629]

In regards to my previous posts I completely forgot Dunkirk actually did compete in the derby....that was a weird yr for 3 yr olds ....mine that Bird was excellent in the derby and Preakness and hit the board in the wv derby to never be competitive again...summer bird from the belmont to the end of the yr was excellent, rachael Alexandra ' s rampage, quality road's flashes of brilliance and power, and Blame coming on strong late in the yr to win the Clark

[lamboguy]

the all time worst favorite had to be FRIESAN FIRE. not only did he train awful for the race but he looked awful in the paddock and got worse once he hit the track. that year the funny thing was that the second choice looked every bit as bad.

[boys at tosconova]

Nyquist.


http://i.imgur.com/QfE6S.gif