Closers In The Derby

[PowerUpPaynter]

How have closers generally faired in the derby? I cant think of any dead closers to win the race unless you consider Mine That Bird or Giacomo but where they really closers or just horses that passed a bunch of tired horses at the right time?

[sbcaris]

You first must define what you mean by a closer. Horses that come from way back in their 9 furlong preps seldom win the roses. Most often the roses are won by a horse with a good degree of early speed who can be placed within 5 or six lengths of the leader and then come on in the stretch. Take a look at Orb the Derby winner in 2013. He is a perfect example of a horse with tactical speed in his 9 furlong Florida Derby. In that race he was only 4 lengths off the pace at the 1/2 mile point and only 1 1/2 lengths behind at 6 furlongs and then he drew away in the stretch run. He was certainly not a deep closer in his prep races but turned out to be a deep closer in the Derby coming from 17th at the six furlong point. (This probably happens because the Derby is usually a big field and primarily because on that particular day-- Palace Malice set a 109 4/5 for six furlongs which is insanely fast early.

Brodys Cause, Suddenbreakingnews, Cherry Wine and Creator are at a distinct disadvantage in this Derby because they come from so far back and can run into a lot of trouble. Their best chances would occur if the frontrunner sets a 1:10 pace.

I prefer horses that can come from off the pace but show a reasonable degree of early speed.

[Grits]

How have closers generally faired in the derby? I cant think of any dead closers to win the race unless you consider Mine That Bird or Giacomo but where they really closers or just horses that passed a bunch of tired horses at the right time?

In 2001, Monarchos, strong closer, last to first, winning the Derby..

[tanner12oz]

I'm.concerned about the lack of pace this year undoing the closers . Think its likely we see a merry go round or something from the 2nd tier

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm.concerned about the lack of pace this year undoing the closers . Think its likely we see a merry go round or something from the 2nd tier




I don't see any Bodemeisters this year, but depending on post draw, Outwork, Danzig Candy - Nyquist should be up front, Nyquist might sit behind the other two.

[minethatbird08]

IMO if you are looking at just win betting you better have a good price on a closer. I would never take an Ice Box or Dialed In type of horse that closes and is a top choice.

[PowerUpPaynter]

I think we get 2 closers in the super. (Creator, Mo Tom, Suddenbreakingnews, Brody's Cause, Fellowship) there is a bunch of them this year. I also dont think Danzing Candy can help himself if he gets pressured that horse got a little pressure from Uncle Lino in the Santa Anita Derby and took off. I dont think he can be reigned in.

[sbcaris]

Grits: You said Monarchos was a deep closer in the Derby as he went from last to first. That is true-- he was a deep closer in the Derby. However, he was not a deep closer in the Wood Memorial. In that race he had what I call tactical speed. At the 1/2 mile point he was seven lengths off the pace. At the six furlong point which was run in 1:10 flat he was ONLY 5 1/4 lengths off the pace. That means he went six furlongs in 1:11 flat. Deep closers do not run six furlongs of a 9 furlong race in 1:11 flat.

Once again, Monarchos was a deep closer in the Derby but in the Wood Memorial he showed a reasonable degree of early speed and stayed close to a very fast pace (only 5 lengths behind it).

In this years Derby there are many deep closers: My Man Sam, Whitmore, Suddenbreakingnews, Brodys Cause, Mo Tom, and Cherry Wine. I define a deep closer as one that is 10 lengths or more off the pace in its last race at 9 furlongs at the 1/2 mile call. I believe all the above fit that definition.

[sbcaris]

Mo Tom doesn't fit but add Creator to the deep closer list above.

[Grits]

Grits: You said Monarchos was a deep closer in the Derby as he went from last to first. That is true-- he was a deep closer in the Derby. However, he was not a deep closer in the Wood Memorial. In that race he had what I call tactical speed. At the 1/2 mile point he was seven lengths off the pace. At the six furlong point which was run in 1:10 flat he was ONLY 5 1/4 lengths off the pace. That means he went six furlongs in 1:11 flat. Deep closers do not run six furlongs of a 9 furlong race in 1:11 flat.

Once again, Monarchos was a deep closer in the Derby but in the Wood Memorial he showed a reasonable degree of early speed and stayed close to a very fast pace (only 5 lengths behind it).

But this tactical trip? It got him beat, unlike his run in the Florida Derby weeks prior, and the Kentucky Derby weeks later when he came from the rear, circled horses and drew off by wide margins in both races. I don't remember his prior races and have no stats.

I understand your post and thank you, sbc. I can certainly be wrong, and I don't keep data. Just going on memory. I've always felt Monarchos' running style defined the term--deep closer. :blush:

[yankeelpn]

Can any of the front runners finish in the top 4?

[SecretAgentMan]

Can any of the front runners finish in the top 4?




Outwork & Nyquist. Outwork outlasted a duel after he put up fast fractions early. Outwork IMO will be battling with Danzig Candy, will be interesting if any front runners last.

I think Nyquist will last for the super,, maybe not, this years derby is tough trying to figure out the underneath horses.

[sbcaris]

Grits: You said you always thought of Monarchos as a deep closer. His overall record does not show him to be a deep closer.

As I said in my post above Monarchos was only 5 lengths behind the pacesetter in the Wood Memorial where the six furlong point was reached in a very fast 1:10.

Monarchos in the Florida Derby was never more than 7 3/4 lengths behind and at the six furlong point he was only 1 1/2 lengths behind the frontrunner which reached the six furlong point in 1:11 2/5.

Monarchos in a mile and a sixteenth race at GP on Feb 3 was never more than 2 1/2 lengths behind the frontrunner at all calls.

Monarchos in a 7 furlong race on Jan 13th at GP was never more than 2 lengths behind the frontrunner. He raced the first four furlongs in 45 4/5 and finished winning by 6 lengths in 122 1/5. Hardly the dossier of a deep closer.

The above stats surely indicate that Monarchos leading up to the Derby was certainly NOT a deep closer. He became one in the Derby for the reasons I stated above.

[Grits]

SBC, all of Monarchos' past performances, Derby program, button, bumper sticker, photos of the day, everything is all tucked away in a guest bedroom closet. His Tony Leonard framed photo, crossing the wire, with Jorge's signature is hanging here in my den. I didn't feel like digging into any of it. So, unlike you, I didn't have the points of call of all his prior races.

Thank you for schooling me. Though you could've gone a little easier. I love gettin' hammered before lunch. :lol:

[SecretAgentMan]

Horses like Monarchos at a 1 1/8 race usually sit 5th or 7th 8 lengths back at the half mile marker, but when racing in a 20 horse field like the KD, they will need to sit further back so not to get into traffic problems, hence Monarchos position in the KD.

Monarchos made a huge sweeping move coming around the final turn. Everyone gas their own version of what a closer is, & I've always considered Monarchos as a closer but not a deep closer like Prairie Bayou.

[sbcaris]

I only see around 4 horses that are likely to vie for the lead in this Derby: Outwork, Nyquist, Laoban and Danzing Candy. Most Likely Danzing Candy will be the front speed with Outwork.

The rest are basically all come from off the pace types--tactical speed types and some deep closers.

[stuball]

SBC, all of Monarchos' past performances, Derby program, button, bumper sticker, photos of the day, everything is all tucked away in a guest bedroom closet. His Tony Leonard framed photo, crossing the wire, with Jorge's signature is hanging here in my den. I didn't feel like digging into any of it. So, unlike you, I didn't have the points of call of all his prior races.

Thank you for schooling me. Though you could've gone a little easier. I love gettin' hammered before lunch. :lol:


How could he have been easier on you..Da facts is Da facts Maam'?O? :jump:

[classhandicapper]

I only see around 4 horses that are likely to vie for the lead in this Derby: Outwork, Nyquist, Laoban and Danzing Candy. Most Likely Danzing Candy will be the front speed with Outwork.

The rest are basically all come from off the pace types--tactical speed types and some deep closers.

That's exactly the way I see it. It's also possible that Laoban and Danzig Candy may not run. Maybe Nyquist will also sit. He came from off the pace in the Juvenile. Even so, in a 20 horse field some of those tactical speeds trying to get position within the second tier could push the pace a little also. There are a lot of deep closers though.

[SecretAgentMan]

That's exactly the way I see it. It's also possible that Laoban and Danzig Candy may not run. Maybe Nyquist will also sit. He came from off the pace in the Juvenile. Even so, in a 20 horse field some of those tactical speeds trying to get position within the second tier could push the pace a little also. There are a lot of deep closers though.



Depending on the post draw, & if Danzig runs, he will be battling up front with Outwork, & Nyquist right behind them. If Danzig is out, Outwork will go out by hinself & Nyquist will pressure him, Noway Nyquist allows him Outwork to go out with ease.

Also, Nyquist had a very bad break in the Juvenile, hence him closing on the field. Nyquist likes being close to the front.

IMO, most of the closers/deep closers are too slow, then again, there aren't any fast horses this year.

[Bullet Plane]

I think that a closer is much more likely to win a Kentucky Derby than most races... so about a half of the races in the last 25 years.

Since 1990, I count 12.

1990 Unbridled 12th at 1/2
1991 Strike the Gold 12th at the 1/2
1992 Lil E Tee 10th at the 1/2
1993 Sea Hero 12th at the 1/2
1996 Grindstone 15th at the 1/2 call
2000 Fu Peg 13th at the 1/2
2001 Monarchos 13th at the 1/2 call
2005 Giacomo 18th at the 1/2
2007 Street Sense 19th at the 1/2
2009 Mine that Bird 19th at the 1/2
2011 Animal Kingdom 12th at the 1/2
2013 Orb 16th at the 1/2


I know many will disagree as to what a closer is...

I think these are very obvious to the great majority of horseplayers.

[Grits]

How could he have been easier on you..Da facts is Da facts Maam'?O? :jump:

I know, Stuball, you're right, but he just had so many. :lol:

[sbcaris]

Grits: All I wanted to do was to illustrate my point that a definition is necessary before one can draw conclusions about closers and horses that have tactical speed. I apologize if I came across to harsh.

Interesting point: After researching Derbies over the last 20 years I found only around 8% of all starters that were 10 lengths or more behind at the 1/2 mile point in their last start at 9 furlongs. However, in this years Derby there is an abnormally large amount of deep closers that fit this criteria. They are:

Exaggerator
Brodys Cause
Creator
Lani
Sudennbreakingnews
Shagaf
Whitmore
My Man Sam
Trojan Nation

If all nine of the above start in the Derby that percentage would be an unheard of 45%. This might change the whole complexion of this years run for the roses. Perhaps the front speed will be at a big advantage depending on who has the lead and whether or not the early pace is fast or slow.

[yankeelpn]

So many closers imo sets up front speed and stalkers if the pace is marginal.
1. Mohaymen
2. Nyquist
3. Mor Spirit
4. Destin
5. Mo Tom/ Gun Runner

[whodoyoulike]

Can any of the front runners finish in the top 4?

I really like this thread topic and particularly your question because
to me it touches on determining their stamina ability which is something I'm also very interested in.