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View Full Version : how serious do you take destin


boys at tosconova
04-19-2016, 10:01 PM
i guess you have to respect the TB derby more than ever. but destin's path looks cheap. outlook and brody came back to run big as well and makes destin even more attractive.

i just wish he would have taken a better prep

SecretAgentMan
04-19-2016, 10:08 PM
i guess you have to respect the TB derby more than ever. but destin's path looks cheap. outlook and brody came back to run big as well and makes destin even more attractive.

i just wish he would have taken a better prep



He raced very well in Tampa, broke the track record too, but the 8 week layoff & this horse never ran 1 1/8 mile. Scary to think he can win with 2 big angles against him, but its a matter of time before all the angles are broken.

depalma113
04-20-2016, 06:35 AM
I wish he had had another prep, but this group is so bad, he probably never really needed it.

Strong contender.

Mc990
04-20-2016, 07:46 AM
He's the fastest horse coming in and I'm of the opinion that you can't let a horse like that beat you out of the verticals and horizontals, considering the pools on derby day. He won't be one of the favorites either so you have more of a cushion against a possible bounce...

Keying him however is a different story... I'd be interested to hear if anyone is considering doing this

Secondbest
04-20-2016, 11:18 AM
To me he's the Biggest mystery of the race.Off his race in tampa he looked like he was on course.Then TAP decided the race was too good and decided to layoff.He had no works for 3 weeks and now has 2 works of 4 and a 5f. 3 weeks to go and no long works so far. Last year in a radio interview He said his horses run best after 5-6 weeks off.if he gets 7f like AP did and is Sharp who knows. As of now I' m not sure.

boys at tosconova
04-20-2016, 01:04 PM
destin is the kind of horse i usually like.

but it seems w/ each passing year trainers just want to avoid anything to get to the derby. or take the easy road to get there. i get that. but imo this raises more flags.

you don't usually equate the TB derby winner as a legit Ken derby horse unless they follow it up w/ nice G1 run after it..not racing destin in one of the races bothers me. it just screams we're happy to be here and we don't want to be exposed..yet.

but this argument loses some credibility as his tb deby was won in record fashion, and outlook won the wood, albeit barely against an 81-1 maiden.

you really have to like outlook as well because of it. and you almost have to use him as well in a box together.....and if you're thinking along those lines,you have to bump up the maiden that almost won at 80-1...but i'm sure most people won't

Andrick
04-20-2016, 01:35 PM
To me he's the Biggest mystery of the race.Off his race in tampa he looked like he was on course.Then TAP decided the race was too good and decided to layoff.He had no works for 3 weeks and now has 2 works of 4 and a 5f. 3 weeks to go and no long works so far. Last year in a radio interview He said his horses run best after 5-6 weeks off.if he gets 7f like AP did and is Sharp who knows. As of now I' m not sure.

Somebody pointed out to me last year that Pletcher's horses perform the best in the Derby after coming off 3 weeks rest. I crunched the numbers after he said that and he was right;

He's ran 19 horses in the Derby off of a 3 week rest and has finished in the super 7 times (1-2-2-2 record) with them. He's ran 22 horses in the Derby off of a rest of 4 or more weeks and he only has but a single 3rd place finish to show for it by Revolutionary a few years ago (0-0-1-0 record). Two other runners of his ran off of a rest of less than 3 weeks.

His preference may be to rest his horses longer and the results may back it up in other races. But in the Derby itself it seems like 3 weeks rest is best for his horses and their results.

f2tornado
04-20-2016, 01:57 PM
I'm skeptical of horses setting track records at 8.5F finishing fast at 10F. I'm also skeptical of any Storm Cat sire line as one has yet to win. I will continue not using on the top until one beats me. Beyond that, he looked good in Tampa has a couple oddball angles so I cannot entirely throw out of a tri bet. He has 28 dosage points but none in the solid or professional categories. His DI and CD are indicative of a horse that could run far and something I'd throw a few bucks at in the Belmont. He is female family 1-g. Family 1 has done well in the Derby but the 1-g not so much. I think only Impeachment hit the board 15 years ago. He has one of the better Beyer figures as well. I have Materiality fresh in my mind which doesn't help.

boys at tosconova
04-20-2016, 03:42 PM
my gut says stay away. but sadly,..i've played worse horses in the KD derby..and if i'm looking for 5 horses will i really be able to pick one/two that doesn't have any less questions that i feel good about?

the racing pattern is crap and i think they're hiding him, because they can. i think destin NOT running speaks bigger volumes than the TR he set in the TB derby...to top it off, when was the last wood winner relevant in the KD?

Secondbest
04-20-2016, 03:56 PM
The horse never went more than 8.5 furlongs 8 weeks off no works for 3 weeks after his last race.Now they want him to go 1 1/4 against 20 horses. Seems like a tough task.I can see him in it until the last eighth then fading.

boys at tosconova
04-22-2016, 12:41 PM
The horse never went more than 8.5 furlongs 8 weeks off no works for 3 weeks after his last race.Now they want him to go 1 1/4 against 20 horses. Seems like a tough task.I can see him in it until the last eighth then fading.

http://gallery.mobile-phones.com.pk/Wallpapers/Funny/thumbs/image176_220/mobilephones_Atomic_Mushroom_Cloud_thumb_330.jpg

sadly i want to ignore things i shouldn't ignore and use him on my ticket because the unknown and possible outcome is stronger than the likely outcome

PowerUpPaynter
04-22-2016, 02:47 PM
I may have already said this but before you know it Todd Pletcher is going to have multiple derby wins under his belt. With the lack of a strong field maybe he picks up a win this year.

Secondbest
04-22-2016, 03:15 PM
Since its Still 2 weeks to go.I think it I' ll wait until race day before making any definitive judgements on anybody.

raybo
04-22-2016, 06:38 PM
I would not be surprised if Destin gets the 1 1/4 miles, and finishes it well. With 2 weeks, to go a lot can be done in that time period to sharpen his form. His pedigree says he can get the distance without much problem, it's just a matter of having him in peak form come Derby Day. 3 year olds, at a new distance, new track and surface for most, new surroundings and distractions, 20 horses in the gate and trying to get some position by the 1st turn, anything can, and often does, happen. Nothing will surprise me too much in the Derby.

Bennie
04-22-2016, 08:07 PM
I am also waiting to see if Destin and some others held their weight or even filled out and physically matured. 8 weeks is a good amount of time for a growth spurt.

boys at tosconova
04-24-2016, 04:54 PM
lemme get this str8. the owners didn't want to run destin again after the TB because they were afraid of a bounce...

this is comical

PaceMasterT
04-24-2016, 08:59 PM
I would not be surprised if Destin gets the 1 1/4 miles, and finishes it well. With 2 weeks, to go a lot can be done in that time period to sharpen his form. His pedigree says he can get the distance without much problem, it's just a matter of having him in peak form come Derby Day. 3 year olds, at a new distance, new track and surface for most, new surroundings and distractions, 20 horses in the gate and trying to get some position by the 1st turn, anything can, and often does, happen. Nothing will surprise me too much in the Derby.

Destin is one that you can't throw out. His running style appears perfectly suited to the current pace scenario setup for the Derby. However, every one of his route races seem to be at a way slower pace than expected Derby pace. As such, I'm assuming he will use too much energy getting into his desired position. However, this is not an immediate toss out, because you don't know if he can handle a faster pace since he has not faced it yet. So, not a toss out, but definitely not a horse you can pound with any certainty. IMHO you need to find a different key horse for the win position and have minor bets as insurance if Destin wins.

PaceMasterT
04-24-2016, 09:22 PM
And not to be "wishy-washy", I'm throwing out all of these for the win based on the current pace scenario:

Lani, Creator, My Man Sam, Brody's Cause, Mo Tom, Suddenbreakingnews, Trojan Nation, Oscar Nominated, Tom's Ready.

And those that I don't think are good enough:

Danzig Candy, Outwork, Shagaf, Mohaymen.

And the ones I'm skeptical about:

Destin.


That leaves me 6 currently that I have to analyze to key in the win position. Currently I'm leaning with Mor Spirit as far as pace/running style. I hate betting Baffert though. But, if you like Mor Spirit, you have to like Exaggerator, so I'm currently having most of my bets structured keying these two in the win place position.

Mc990
04-24-2016, 09:24 PM
lemme get this str8. the owners didn't want to run destin again after the TB because they were afraid of a bounce...

this is comical

Destin ran a monster "top" in the TB derby. A race good enough to bury this field. I think the layoff is being overhyped... If this were any other horse race, this would be looked at as shrewd management. Horse most certainly needed time to recover. Just because no horse has won the derby off an 8 week layoff doesn't mean it isn't the right move... How much of a sample size do we really have (derby specific)?

There is certainly plenty of non derby specific data that says this is the right move. I'll take the "objective numbers" over the "media narrative" every time.

I remember when all you heard before the '06 derby was how Barbaro was such a monster but there was no way a horse could win off a 5 week layoff. Looking back, I think we can all say that was a ridiculous sentiment.

Things change in sports all the time and newfound metrics drive much of that change. Heck, remember when running backs actually mattered in the NFL... Remember when big men mattered in the NBA. Remember when pitchers actually threw compete games. One thing is for sure... Horse racing is by far the least progressive sport there is. Would anyone be surprised if we all realized 8 weeks may be preferable to 4 weeks into the derby...

Bottom line- I think Destin has a big shot, at a price

boys at tosconova
04-24-2016, 09:38 PM
Destin ran a monster "top" in the TB derby. A race good enough to bury this field. I think the layoff is being overhyped... If this were any other horse race, this would be looked at as shrewd management. Horse most certainly needed time to recover. Just because no horse has won the derby off an 8 week layoff doesn't mean it isn't the right move... How much of a sample size do we really have (derby specific)?

There is certainly plenty of non derby specific data that says this is the right move. I'll take the "objective numbers" over the "media narrative" every time.

I remember when all you heard before the '06 derby was how Barbaro was such a monster but there was no way a horse could win off a 5 week layoff. Looking back, I think we can all say that was a ridiculous sentiment.

Things change in sports all the time and newfound metrics drive much of that change. Heck, remember when running backs actually mattered in the NFL... Remember when big men mattered in the NBA. Remember when pitchers actually threw compete games. One thing is for sure... Horse racing is by far the least progressive sport there is. Would anyone be surprised if we all realized 8 weeks may be preferable to 4 weeks into the derby...

Bottom line- I think Destin has a big shot, at a price

of course you do. and i can't argue that. and i want to use him as well. that track record @ TB carries a lot of weight and upcoming hope... not to mention the horse should be in good striking position.

but regrdless of PP, i can't help to liken the horses situation to that of a boxer trying to delay fighting the top 3 contenders until he has to. regardless of his performance in the TB derby this is a strong sign of weakness imo

SecretAgentMan
04-24-2016, 09:46 PM
Destin ran a monster "top" in the TB derby. A race good enough to bury this field. I think the layoff is being overhyped... If this were any other horse race, this would be looked at as shrewd management. Horse most certainly needed time to recover. Just because no horse has won the derby off an 8 week layoff doesn't mean it isn't the right move... How much of a sample size do we really have (derby specific)?

There is certainly plenty of non derby specific data that says this is the right move. I'll take the "objective numbers" over the "media narrative" every time.

I remember when all you heard before the '06 derby was how Barbaro was such a monster but there was no way a horse could win off a 5 week layoff. Looking back, I think we can all say that was a ridiculous sentiment.

Things change in sports all the time and newfound metrics drive much of that change. Heck, remember when running backs actually mattered in the NFL... Remember when big men mattered in the NBA. Remember when pitchers actually threw compete games. One thing is for sure... Horse racing is by far the least progressive sport there is. Would anyone be surprised if we all realized 8 weeks may be preferable to 4 weeks into the derby...

Bottom line- I think Destin has a big shot, at a price



Comparing Destin to Barbaro is ridiculous! Barbaro was u defeated & his times in every race were spectacular, go back & look, & his beyers were nice as well.

Destin lost twice, he hasn't raced at 1 1/8 race, he's 8 weeks off, that's only 3 weeks more than Barbaro.

Yes he did break the track record, but w/o another prep before the derby & not many workouts in this 8 weeks, I think he won't hit the board.

Psychotic Parakeet
04-24-2016, 10:46 PM
Has any horse won the Derby off of an 8 week layoff and/or never used a 9f prep?

SecretAgentMan
04-24-2016, 10:56 PM
Has any horse won the Derby off of an 8 week layoff and/or never used a 9f prep?




I believe the answer is no & no, correct me if I'm wrong guys.

dballard125
04-24-2016, 11:00 PM
I think he's going to struggle getting another 3/16 at Churchill and I also don't think he's fast enough to beat Nyquist.

The breakdown of this is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezXqiZSSgKc

boys at tosconova
04-24-2016, 11:04 PM
And not to be "wishy-washy", I'm throwing out all of these for the win based on the current pace scenario:

Lani, Creator, My Man Sam, Brody's Cause, Mo Tom, Suddenbreakingnews, Trojan Nation, Oscar Nominated, Tom's Ready.

And those that I don't think are good enough:

Danzig Candy, Outwork, Shagaf, Mohaymen.

And the ones I'm skeptical about:

Destin.


That leaves me 6 currently that I have to analyze to key in the win position. Currently I'm leaning with Mor Spirit as far as pace/running style. I hate betting Baffert though. But, if you like Mor Spirit, you have to like Exaggerator, so I'm currently having most of my bets structured keying these two in the win place position.

i'd love to hear you try and sell playing majesto over creator,mms,brody and sbn..let alone the others. describe the race to me.

Mc990
04-25-2016, 08:26 AM
Comparing Destin to Barbaro is ridiculous! Barbaro was u defeated & his times in every race were spectacular, go back & look, & his beyers were nice as well.

Destin lost twice, he hasn't raced at 1 1/8 race, he's 8 weeks off, that's only 3 weeks more than Barbaro.

Yes he did break the track record, but w/o another prep before the derby & not many workouts in this 8 weeks, I think he won't hit the board.

Not comparing Destin to Barbaro... Although Destin is faster than he was at this point in their 3yr old campaigns (especially relative to their respective crops). By the way, I bet Barbaro

The point I'm trying to make is that the narrative was that a 5 week layoff was a negative for the horse. Something very similar is happening with Destin. If the 8 week layoff is a negative, I want someone to provide me with the actual data to back it up. Otherwise it's just an assertion.

PowerUpPaynter
04-27-2016, 04:57 PM
Destin is trying to do something no runner has done in the past 25 years:
hit the board in the Derby following a layoff of 45 days or more.

Robert Fischer
04-27-2016, 05:09 PM
May be too cheap. This guy beat a favored stablemate twice(red flags).

He does have a high cruising speed, and an extra gear in the stretch. If he gets a good relatively forward trip and has some momentum he could keep on going and hit the board. I'm leaning towards including him.

Valuist
04-27-2016, 06:38 PM
I may have already said this but before you know it Todd Pletcher is going to have multiple derby wins under his belt. With the lack of a strong field maybe he picks up a win this year.

Pletcher has burned a ton of money in the Derby. He's a reason to fade Destin, IMO.