Mountaineer Pk - Tues 4/19 - Live

[Nitro]

Lets give MTR another shot tonight.

GL

[Chris Longshot]

Lets give MTR another shot tonight.

GL

Hey Nitro, how did you end up doing? Mountaineer has some of their weirdest tote trends I've seen, good luck tonight...:ThmbUp:

[Nitro]

Hey Nitro, how did you end up doing? Mountaineer has some of their weirdest tote trends I've seen, good luck tonight...:ThmbUp:
Not too bad last night. Lets see how it goes tonight. It definitely has some weird tote trends especially the late action.
GL

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Not too bad last night. Lets see how it goes tonight. It definitely has some weird tote trends especially the late action.
GL

I've always found the Mountain to be one of the heaviest and most volatile late action tracks around the country.

[Nitro]

R#1 - 6-1 W/ 8-7-2 @ 3mins to post

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R1

:2: Holiday Lunch

:2:/:6::7::8:

[Chris Longshot]

MOUNTAIN 1

:7: HOWELLING WIND

:4: HES A CAT

[rexjred]

:ThmbUp: I had to exclude the 8 because there are no dime superfectas at mountainair but it paid off

[Chris Longshot]

I've always found the Mountain to be one of the heaviest and most volatile late action tracks around the country.

Well you have bettors that unload early on a horse they don't even like to steer betting in another direction, only to pull the money late and put it on a on a horse they really intended to play, too much tote manipulation for my liking. :mad:

[Nitro]

R#1 - 6-1 W/ 8-7-2 @ 3mins to post
Results:

R #1 = 1-7-2-6 - – WIN – EX – TRI – SUPER BX :ThmbUp:

$2.00 WIN – 1 - $4.20
$2.00 EXACTA – 1-7 - $27.80
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 1-7-2 - $143.40
$2.00 SUPER – 1-7-2-6 - $380.00

[Chris Longshot]

MOUNTAIN 1

:7: HOWELLING WIND



I often wonder what Deshawn Parker does to other horses when he's neck and neck in the stretch, his opponents horse 9 times out of 10, just refuses to go by...:confused:

[Chris Longshot]

Results:

R #1 = 1-7-2-6 - – WIN – EX – TRI – SUPER BX :ThmbUp:

$2.00 WIN – 1 - $4.20
$2.00 EXACTA – 1-7 - $27.80
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 1-7-2 - $143.40
$2.00 SUPER – 1-7-2-6 - $380.00

Guess Im mistaken...:lol:

Nice job Nitro...:ThmbUp:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Results:

R #1 = 1-7-2-6 - – WIN – EX – TRI – SUPER BX :ThmbUp:

$2.00 WIN – 1 - $4.20
$2.00 EXACTA – 1-7 - $27.80
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 1-7-2 - $143.40
$2.00 SUPER – 1-7-2-6 - $380.00

Well done Nitro. :ThmbUp:

That race paid a ton more than I thought it would.

[Nitro]

R#2 - 7-3 W/ 2-1-8 @ 3mins to post

[Nitro]

Thanks guys! It did pay a lot more then expected!

[Chris Longshot]

MOUNTAIN 2

:6: BLACK BULLET

:1: RUNNYMEADE NATIVE

[Nitro]

R#2 - 7-3 W/ 2-1-8 @ 3mins to post
Results:

R #2 = 8-1-7-6 - – TRI BX :ThmbUp:

$2.00 TRIFECTA – 8-1-7 - $1,260.00

[Nitro]

R#3 - 7-4 W/ 5-6 @ 3mins to post

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R3

Ugly Maiden

Try to get an Exacta home with

:7:/:3::6:

[rexjred]

what was the :5: jockey doing in that race?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R3

Ugly Maiden

Try to get an Exacta home with

:7:/:3::6:

1 Mile on dirt in 1:45.12 :eek: :lol:

[Nitro]

R#3 - 7-4 W/ 5-6 @ 3mins to post
Results:

R #3 = 4-7-6-3 - – WIN – EX – TRI BX :ThmbUp:

$2.00 WIN – 4 - $7.00
$2.00 EXACTA – 4-7 - $22.20
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 4-7-6 - $163.40

[bello]

Race 4 look like a cold punch 6-5 chalk exacta

DD 6/57

[Nitro]

R#4 - 5-6 W/ 2-1 @ 3mins to post

Potential bridge-jumper #6

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Race 4 look like a cold punch 6-5 chalk exacta

DD 6/57

Completely unwagerable race.

[Nitro]

R#4 - 5-6 W/ 2-1 @ 3mins to post

Potential bridge-jumper #6
Results:

R #4 = 6-2-5-3 - – WIN – EX – TRI BX

$2.00 WIN – 6 - $2.40
$2.00 EXACTA – 6-2 - $16.20
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 6-2-5 - $17.40

[Nitro]

Completely unwagerable race.
Absolutely!

[Nitro]

R#5 - 6-2 W/ 7-5 @ 3mins to post

[bello]

Race 5...
5w 5-7 ex box....I don't really see the 6 so so she will likely win

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R5

:3: Wicked Vicky

[Nitro]

R5

:3: Wicked Vicky
Very nice call! LD! :ThmbUp:

[bello]

R5

:3: Wicked Vicky

very impressive

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Very nice call! LD! :ThmbUp:

Thanks Nitro. :)

:3: W $38.60 $13.20 :jump:

[Nitro]

R#5 - 6-2 W/ 7-5 @ 3mins to post
Results:

R #5 = 3-6-7-5 - – Nothing in that one - No clues on the LS Winner

[bello]

P4 4 stab

Race 6 1/1/13/13810

[Nitro]

R#6 - 4-1 W/ 6-7 @ 3mins to post

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R#6 - 4-1 W/ 6-7 @ 3mins to post

The :7: in that race had one of the biggest "BOUNCES" I've ever seen. Ever.

According to BRIS, 2 back he ran a 65 which was 13 points over anything he had ran before. Next race? -64. Yep. That is a minus sign. Thus a 129 point change from one race to the other.

[Nitro]

R#6 - 4-1 W/ 6-7 @ 3mins to post
Results:

R #6 = 1-6-2-7 - –WIN – EX BX

$2.00 WIN – 1 - $3.80
$2.00 EXACTA – 1-6 - $11.60

[Lemon Drop Husker]

P4 4 stab

Race 6 1/1/13/13810

Live through the 1st leg. :ThmbUp:

[Tee]

:3: Ignition Switch & :7: Market Risk

[Nitro]

R#7 - 1-2 W/ 7-3 @ 3mins to post

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R7

:3: Ignition Switch
:7: Market Risk

Looks front end speed loaded, so I'll fire some closers.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R#7 - 1-2 W/ 7-3 @ 3mins to post

Good call.

Ugly payouts, and I'm sure you stayed away. Wish I did. :bang:

[Nitro]

R#7 - 1-2 W/ 7-3 @ 3mins to post
Results:

R #7 = 2-1-1A-7-4 - –WIN – EX & TRI BX

$2.00 WIN – 2 - $3.20
$2.00 EXACTA – 2-1 - $9.20
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 2-1-7 - $23.20

[Tee]

:2: Breaking the City

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1-6 W/ 3-7 @ 3mins to post

Potential bridge-jumper #3

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R8

:4: Smooth Arrival

:4::6:/:2::4::6::7:

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1-6 W/ 3-7 @ 3mins to post

Potential bridge-jumper #3

Results:

R #8 = 1-4-6-7 - –WIN - Some late action on the LS Placer
(That was LemonDrop sending it in!) ;)

And the #3 is off the board :eek:

$2.00 WIN – 1 - $8.00

[Nitro]

R#9 - 6-10 W/ 3-9-1 @ 3mins to post

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R9 Get out race

:3::6: look weak and more than beatable to me

Tough time getting past the :7::9:, and the :10: is right there.

:1: can back end and enhance things.

:7: W
:7::9:/:7::9::10: EX
:7::9:/:7::9::10:/:1::6::7::9::10: Tri

[Lemon Drop Husker]

1st time Gelding with solid connections.

Interesting.

[Nitro]

R#9 - 6-10 W/ 3-9-1 @ 3mins to post

Results:

R #9 = 8-1-10-6-7 – Nothing in that one – (It was looking good at the 1/8 pole!)
Absolutely no clues on the LS Winner (1st time Gelding!)

[bello]

P4 4 stab

Race 6 1/1/13/13810
Too stingy to use the favorite in race 7 Leg 2
Race 9 tri 8-1-10 good for $739

[Nitro]

1st time Gelding with solid connections.

Interesting.

Unfortunately the connections weren't betting! :bang:

[bello]

Trainers who are sending them ready are becoming more obvious

[Nitro]

Trainers who are sending them ready are becoming more obvious

They're only obvious to me if they play their hand by betting on their intentions. How would you read the #8 as being obvious?

[bello]

They're only obvious to me if they play their hand by betting on their intentions. How would you read the #8 as being obvious?
All kinds of pools to bet into and hide money. I used to watch this trainer at the opening of Finger Lakes meet years ago when he was based there, and when he started the meet off hot his recent purchases had to be carefully followed. More back class than the rest of these, racing ok on a better circuit. If Deshawn was up he would have been 8-5. Trainer going to Singh after using DeShawn all day scared most better off. Pretty sharp move.

[Nitro]

All kinds of pools to bet into and hide money. I used to watch this trainer at the opening of Finger Lakes meet years ago when he was based there, and when he started the meet off hot his recent purchases had to be carefully followed. More back class than the rest of these, racing ok on a better circuit. If Deshawn was up he would have been 8-5. Trainer going to Singh after using DeShawn all day scared most better off. Pretty sharp move.
That’s absolutely true!
The tote analysis I use monitors ALL the Mutual & Exacta pools. It may have been a sharp move but they only collected the purse. They certainly weren’t betting Triples or Supers either. Not with those returns! ($739 & $4,496)

[bello]

That’s absolutely true!
The tote analysis I use monitors ALL the Mutual & Exacta pools. It may have been a sharp move but they only collected the purse. They certainly weren’t betting Triples or Supers either. Not with those returns! ($739 & $4,496)
What do yo think about the DD?
Both Clouston horses
will pay with the 6 who was 8-5 fave was $46
with 9 at 9-2 was $56
with 10 at 6-1 was $64

With the 8 at 8-1 Paid only $50.

AND the 8 was the favorite in the P3s despite being 8-1....I would say the $$$ was likely in the horizontals.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

What do yo think about the DD?
Both Clouston horses
will pay with the 6 who was 8-5 fave was $46
with 9 at 9-2 was $56
with 10 at 6-1 was $64

With the 8 at 8-1 Paid only $50.

AND the 8 was the favorite in the P3s despite being 8-1....I would say the $$$ was likely in the horizontals.

Why waste money and possibilities of "stuff" happening, when you can send it in on an 8/1 in the finale?

[Nitro]

What do yo think about the DD?
Both Clouston horses
will pay with the 6 who was 8-5 fave was $46
with 9 at 9-2 was $56
with 10 at 6-1 was $64

With the 8 at 8-1 Paid only $50.

AND the 8 was the favorite in the P3s despite being 8-1....I would say the $$$ was likely in the horizontals.I don't monitor those pools, but maybe in this case you may have a point.

Mountaineer Park – Race #9 – Tote Analysis (Example)

Keep in mind when using the analysis I’m not looking for Winners.
I’m looking for Winning plays!

PAR is the analyzed result of ALL the betting pools combined at each betting interval.
The numbers in RED are the individual Entry Values closest to PAR.
The objective is simply to observe and compare PAR with each Entry value at each interval.
OD1/OD2/OD3 are the entry odds at each betting interval.

# Name........... Jockey....... M/L OD1 OD2 OD3 66 82 76
1 Havana Mike... Bracho, Agusti 6.0 5 6 5 79 109 81
2 Precious Energy Ortiz, Wilkin 15.0 8 9 12 34 117 127
3 Ride On........... Lozanojr, Wilf 4 3 3 3.5 134 79 68
4 Catular............ Oliveros, Char 5 12 12 13 96 174 207
5 Shipping Money Parker, Deshaw 3 - - - #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
6 Mashpee Pond... Quinones, Luis 15 3.5 3.5 4.5 26 34 61
7 Ray's Back....... Hernandez, Luc 8 10 11 11 86 99 88
8 Espiritu Libre Singh, Rohan 8 8 8 10 120 125 104
9 Panzer Attack.... Jurado, Eddie 10 5 5 5 61 67 74
10 Chief Mango... Figueroa, Serg 10 11 9 4 45 75 33
.............To See Final Betting Interval-------------------->>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
.

[bello]

Thanks for the explanation of your methodology Nitro. I'll tune in some more now that I understand.

[deelo]

Nitro...

could you elaborate on your line "I'm not looking for winners, I'm looking for winning plays"...I actually thought you WERE using it to look for winners...hence the 2 key winners plays with the 2nd tier coming after. If it isn't used to isolate top contenders from maybes as I had thought then what? There's no way you could use taking the top 5 out of every race and use it to your advantage for a winning "play" as you put it rather than picking likely winners.

thx

[Tall One]

Well you have bettors that unload early on a horse they don't even like to steer betting in another direction, only to pull the money late and put it on a on a horse they really intended to play, too much tote manipulation for my liking. :mad:


I have a lot of respect for Mountainman, and Peter Berry as well, but there's no way in hell I'd bet one thin dime at that track...or Pen, or CT for that matter.

Turfway gets this late tote action as well..:ThmbDown:

[Nitro]

Nitro...

could you elaborate on your line "I'm not looking for winners, I'm looking for winning plays"...I actually thought you WERE using it to look for winners...hence the 2 key winners plays with the 2nd tier coming after. If it isn't used to isolate top contenders from maybes as I had thought then what? There's no way you could use taking the top 5 out of every race and use it to your advantage for a winning "play" as you put it rather than picking likely winners.

thx
I guess over the years I’ve come to realize that anything can happen in a horse race. So rather than focusing on trying to pinpoint and play a single entry to win, I feel much more comfortable hedging my bets by either Dutching 2 or 3 entries or playing any one of the many exotics available AS LONG AS THE VALUE OF THE ENTRIES SELECTED WILL INEVITABLY PRODUCE A PROFIT.
I’ve found that the platform of the tote analysis fits this type of play perfectly. Once you get used to seeing specific betting patterns at certain tracks finding 2 Key entries is not very difficult. Once that’s done then it’s just a matter of deciding which play to make. I also prefer this method because its allows me to focus more on the betting side of the game which I think is actually more important. One of the best recent examples I can provide for how well the analysis works is on this thread:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=130358&page=1
.
.