How Important is a Recent Race @ Meet Opening?

[NorCalGreg]

Noticed quite a few meets open up for the season---and seems like the regulars just lock up and go home when the last meet ends. Most of the horses don't ship anywhere--they simply hang out there til the new meet starts.

So you have a lot of horses with four to maybe 8 months of inactivity. I'm sure they're in their "off-meet" schedule, getting exercise, putting on weight, regular training, etc.

Anyway...I got curious about this---most horses coming off a layoff. How well will they perform? I have a hard time even considering betting the lower level horses off layoff--but sprinkled in with them are some horses that HAVE had recent races.

So what I've done is singled out the horses that have a race within 35 days (my personal cutoff for being considered in a mechanical-method setting)

I'll list these now--and later on come back and tally the results:

HASTINGS

1ST-----PRINCESS KATIE 6/5
6TH-----AVADIVA 6-1
7TH-----HOLLYWOOD ANGEL 3-1
7TH-----DON'T HOLD ME BACK 6-1
7TH-----HE'S A BEAST 8-1

WOODBINE

1ST-----ALPHA HIGH 2-1
2ND-----ZENZIZI 3-1
4TH-----POLLYWANNACRACKER 7/2
6TH-----SUPERSTONEY 4-1
6TH-----GRALING 10-1
6TH-----TESSIER 7/2
7TH-----DR SPORT 8-1
9TH-----FIRST GIRL 8-1
9TH-----MOZAMBIQUE GOLD 2-1
10TH----VOW TO ROMANCE 8-1
10TH----D'ORO PARADISE 3-1

EMERALD

1ST-----SPARKY G 7/2
1ST-----ARMS WAR 5/2
2ND-----CITY BENCH 2-1
2ND-----ACUTE FEVER 8-1
5TH-----COME ON COZZENE 3-1
6TH-----DELINEATOR EXPRESS 15-1
7TH-----SPECTACULAR CAT 12-1
8TH-----PETES SLEW 6-1
9TH-----WANDO CAT 15-1
10TH----PENPORIUM 15-1

bbl

♣ NCG

[green80]

Noticed quite a few meets open up for the season---and seems like the regulars just lock up and go home when the last meet ends. Most of the horses don't ship anywhere--they simply hang out there til the new meet starts.

So you have a lot of horses with four to maybe 8 months of inactivity. I'm sure they're in their "off-meet" schedule, getting exercise, putting on weight, regular training, etc.

Anyway...I got curious about this---most horses coming off a layoff. How well will they perform? I have a hard time even considering betting the lower level horses off layoff--but sprinkled in with them are some horses that HAVE had recent races.

So what I've done is singled out the horses that have a race within 35 days (my personal cutoff for being considered in a mechanical-method setting)

I'll list these now--and later on come back and tally the results:

HASTINGS

1ST-----PRINCESS KATIE 6/5
6TH-----AVADIVA 6-1
7TH-----HOLLYWOOD ANGEL 3-1
7TH-----DON'T HOLD ME BACK 6-1
7TH-----HE'S A BEAST 8-1

WOODBINE

1ST-----ALPHA HIGH 2-1
2ND-----ZENZIZI 3-1
4TH-----POLLYWANNACRACKER 7/2
6TH-----SUPERSTONEY 4-1
6TH-----GRALING 10-1
6TH-----TESSIER 7/2
7TH-----DR SPORT 8-1
9TH-----FIRST GIRL 8-1
9TH-----MOZAMBIQUE GOLD 2-1
10TH----VOW TO ROMANCE 8-1
10TH----D'ORO PARADISE 3-1

EMERALD

1ST-----SPARKY G 7/2
1ST-----ARMS WAR 5/2
2ND-----CITY BENCH 2-1
2ND-----ACUTE FEVER 8-1
5TH-----COME ON COZZENE 3-1
6TH-----DELINEATOR EXPRESS 15-1
7TH-----SPECTACULAR CAT 12-1
8TH-----PETES SLEW 6-1
9TH-----WANDO CAT 15-1
10TH----PENPORIUM 15-1

bbl

♣ NCG

I would think you could stretch that to 60 days or more if the horse is working regularly. Some high class horses go out and win their first start after 6 months or more. The higher class a horse is the less you need to worry about how long he was off. Keep in mind some trainers are much better about bringing a horse off a layoff than others.

Also keep in mind some horses need a race over a new track surface. A lot of times a horse doesn't run his best race on the first out at a new meet not because he is not fit but because he needed an out over the new surface. A novice handicapper attributes this to having been off too long.

Maybe some of the database guys and give us a report on time off and win percentages.

[Winger]

Noticed quite a few meets open up for the season---and seems like the regulars just lock up and go home when the last meet ends. Most of the horses don't ship anywhere--they simply hang out there til the new meet starts.

So you have a lot of horses with four to maybe 8 months of inactivity. I'm sure they're in their "off-meet" schedule, getting exercise, putting on weight, regular training, etc.

Anyway...I got curious about this---most horses coming off a layoff. How well will they perform? I have a hard time even considering betting the lower level horses off layoff--but sprinkled in with them are some horses that HAVE had recent races.

So what I've done is singled out the horses that have a race within 35 days (my personal cutoff for being considered in a mechanical-method setting)

I'll list these now--and later on come back and tally the results:

HASTINGS

1ST-----PRINCESS KATIE 6/5
6TH-----AVADIVA 6-1
7TH-----HOLLYWOOD ANGEL 3-1
7TH-----DON'T HOLD ME BACK 6-1
7TH-----HE'S A BEAST 8-1

WOODBINE

1ST-----ALPHA HIGH 2-1
2ND-----ZENZIZI 3-1
4TH-----POLLYWANNACRACKER 7/2
6TH-----SUPERSTONEY 4-1
6TH-----GRALING 10-1
6TH-----TESSIER 7/2
7TH-----DR SPORT 8-1
9TH-----FIRST GIRL 8-1
9TH-----MOZAMBIQUE GOLD 2-1
10TH----VOW TO ROMANCE 8-1
10TH----D'ORO PARADISE 3-1

EMERALD

1ST-----SPARKY G 7/2
1ST-----ARMS WAR 5/2
2ND-----CITY BENCH 2-1
2ND-----ACUTE FEVER 8-1
5TH-----COME ON COZZENE 3-1
6TH-----DELINEATOR EXPRESS 15-1
7TH-----SPECTACULAR CAT 12-1
8TH-----PETES SLEW 6-1
9TH-----WANDO CAT 15-1
10TH----PENPORIUM 15-1

bbl

♣ NCG


Horses with a recent start in the last 35 days have gone 9/43 at these 3 tracks. It showed a positive ROI, but that's because of a $92 winner.

[NorCalGreg]

Horses with a recent start in the last 35 days have gone 9/43 at these 3 tracks. It showed a positive ROI, but that's because of a $92 winner.


Interesting...we'll have to see what happens today--but I'm sure you're numbers will be pretty accurate...I did notice several horses back VERY quickly, like 7 days--at big prices.

So was wondering, basically for future reference--how those back-quick longshots would do.

Who knows--may find a profitable subset angle out of this.

[whodoyoulike]

... Some high class horses go out and win their first start after 6 months or more. The higher class a horse is the less you need to worry about how long he was off. Keep in mind some trainers are much better about bringing a horse off a layoff than others. ...

I think I know what you mean that higher class horses do come back running to their previous form. It probably has something to do with their trainer and owner not wanting to rush and cause additional injury. But, I'm always concerned when horses are off for months because I wonder why they were laid up.

Btw, I don't consider 35 calendar days a layoff. If the layoff appears just a part of the horse's schedule nothing wrong with that IMO because horses can't run year round and need and should get some time off.

[Stillriledup]

The best time to attack a meet is in the beginning with everyone being a shipper. Once the form gets established, it's easier for the crowd to pick winners.

[NorCalGreg]

Noticed quite a few meets open up for the season---and seems like the regulars just lock up and go home when the last meet ends. Most of the horses don't ship anywhere--they simply hang out there til the new meet starts.

So you have a lot of horses with four to maybe 8 months of inactivity. I'm sure they're in their "off-meet" schedule, getting exercise, putting on weight, regular training, etc.

Anyway...I got curious about this---most horses coming off a layoff. How well will they perform? I have a hard time even considering betting the lower level horses off layoff--but sprinkled in with them are some horses that HAVE had recent races.

So what I've done is singled out the horses that have a race within 35 days (my personal cutoff for being considered in a mechanical-method setting)

I'll list these now--and later on come back and tally the results:

HASTINGS

1ST-----PRINCESS KATIE 6/5--->>$2.60
6TH-----AVADIVA 6-1
7TH-----HOLLYWOOD ANGEL 3-1
7TH-----DON'T HOLD ME BACK 6-1
7TH-----HE'S A BEAST 8-1

WOODBINE

1ST-----ALPHA HIGH 2-1
2ND-----ZENZIZI 3-1
4TH-----POLLYWANNACRACKER 7/2
6TH-----SUPERSTONEY 4-1
6TH-----GRALING 10-1
6TH-----TESSIER 7/2--->>>$8.90
7TH-----DR SPORT 8-1
9TH-----FIRST GIRL 8-1
9TH-----MOZAMBIQUE GOLD 2-1
10TH----VOW TO ROMANCE 8-1
10TH----D'ORO PARADISE 3-1--->>>>$8.60

EMERALD

1ST-----SPARKY G 7/2
1ST-----ARMS WAR 5/2
2ND-----CITY BENCH 2-1
2ND-----ACUTE FEVER 8-1
5TH-----COME ON COZZENE 3-1
6TH-----DELINEATOR EXPRESS 15-1
7TH-----SPECTACULAR CAT 12-1
8TH-----PETES SLEW 6-1--->>> $11.80
9TH-----WANDO CAT 15-1
10TH----PENPORIUM 15-1

--The results are in--not what I was expecting. A lot of times, there was a single horse back quickly--with the rest of the field showing long layoffs.

Was hoping there might be an angle to be found---flat betting all over 10-1, something of that nature. It's just not to be.

I have seen some mechanical methods @ the beginning of meets, and through out shorter meets, that seem to hold up year after year. The Kentucky Downs meet has a couple good angles, profitable year to year.

4 winners out of 26 qualifiers on the day--with an avg mutual of 7.93

Probably don't need to get the calculator out, to see this is a big fat loss any way you look at it.

-Every dollar wagered returned 65 cents, with a total loss of $18.30 of $52.00 bet.

We'll need to look elsewhere for some easy money--it's not @ these three tracks.

Next --Dr Quirin did a study 30 years ago --and found an ROI of $1.10 betting all top QSP horses with at least 4 pts--and a 2pt min gap to the 2nd highest.

Wonder if that still holds up in this hi-tech world of today? I'll post the test and results tomorrow.


♣ NCG

[HuggingTheRail]

Avadiva won the 6th at HST - $24.60 to win

[NorCalGreg]

Avadiva won the 6th at HST - $24.60 to win


Thanks for pointing that out, HTR. DRF listed AVADIVA as scratched so I took her off the list of qualifiers when looking at results.

Interesting she would be erroneously listed as scratched --not be scratched--then to make it worse for DRF---she wins the race at a huge price!

Avadiva not scratched
(3) Avadiva was not scratched out of the Brighouse Belles as was posted earlier.

Still....the "handwriting is on the wall"---for this angle.

-NCG

[pondman]

I'd look at weather. It's much easier on horses if they spend time away from the track in a mild climate. You probably already know that horses ship into GG that have been off 6 months or more, and blow the field away.

[ultracapper]

Noticed quite a few meets open up for the season---and seems like the regulars just lock up and go home when the last meet ends. Most of the horses don't ship anywhere--they simply hang out there til the new meet starts.

So you have a lot of horses with four to maybe 8 months of inactivity. I'm sure they're in their "off-meet" schedule, getting exercise, putting on weight, regular training, etc.

Anyway...I got curious about this---most horses coming off a layoff. How well will they perform? I have a hard time even considering betting the lower level horses off layoff--but sprinkled in with them are some horses that HAVE had recent races.

So what I've done is singled out the horses that have a race within 35 days (my personal cutoff for being considered in a mechanical-method setting)

I'll list these now--and later on come back and tally the results:

HASTINGS

1ST-----PRINCESS KATIE 6/5--->>$2.60
6TH-----AVADIVA 6-1
7TH-----HOLLYWOOD ANGEL 3-1
7TH-----DON'T HOLD ME BACK 6-1
7TH-----HE'S A BEAST 8-1

WOODBINE

1ST-----ALPHA HIGH 2-1
2ND-----ZENZIZI 3-1
4TH-----POLLYWANNACRACKER 7/2
6TH-----SUPERSTONEY 4-1
6TH-----GRALING 10-1
6TH-----TESSIER 7/2--->>>$8.90
7TH-----DR SPORT 8-1
9TH-----FIRST GIRL 8-1
9TH-----MOZAMBIQUE GOLD 2-1
10TH----VOW TO ROMANCE 8-1
10TH----D'ORO PARADISE 3-1--->>>>$8.60

EMERALD

1ST-----SPARKY G 7/2
1ST-----ARMS WAR 5/2
2ND-----CITY BENCH 2-1
2ND-----ACUTE FEVER 8-1
5TH-----COME ON COZZENE 3-1
6TH-----DELINEATOR EXPRESS 15-1
7TH-----SPECTACULAR CAT 12-1
8TH-----PETES SLEW 6-1--->>> $11.80
9TH-----WANDO CAT 15-1
10TH----PENPORIUM 15-1

--The results are in--not what I was expecting. A lot of times, there was a single horse back quickly--with the rest of the field showing long layoffs.

Was hoping there might be an angle to be found---flat betting all over 10-1, something of that nature. It's just not to be.

I have seen some mechanical methods @ the beginning of meets, and through out shorter meets, that seem to hold up year after year. The Kentucky Downs meet has a couple good angles, profitable year to year.

4 winners out of 26 qualifiers on the day--with an avg mutual of 7.93

Probably don't need to get the calculator out, to see this is a big fat loss any way you look at it.

-Every dollar wagered returned 65 cents, with a total loss of $18.30 of $52.00 bet.

We'll need to look elsewhere for some easy money--it's not @ these three tracks.

Next --Dr Quirin did a study 30 years ago --and found an ROI of $1.10 betting all top QSP horses with at least 4 pts--and a 2pt min gap to the 2nd highest.

Wonder if that still holds up in this hi-tech world of today? I'll post the test and results tomorrow.


♣ NCG

A one day study......and the results are in?

Come on Greg, you know better than that.

[JohnGalt1]

I agree with your premise. Because I've noticed the same thing.

Last year Canterbury's first stakes race for Fillies and mares in May had a field where all entrants except one hadn't raced since August or September, which included at least one horse of the year in her category.

Polar Plunge had a prep at Prairie Meadows a few weeks before, but was a double digit loser so went off about 10-1.

Don't need to tell you who won.

Isn't there a horsey saying that one recent race is worth 4-5 work outs?

[HuggingTheRail]

I don't have the stats to support this, but I think the angle worked better at Hastings a decade or two ago. The meet was a bit longer (or at least more race days / horses raced more frequently), which meant that the horses that stayed home could be "raced into shape" early in the meet - allowing the fitter horse to win in the first weeks.

Now, with relatively few race dates, many trainers (at least at HST) are training their horses more on the farms - wanting to ensure they are race ready for the early season.

[jasperson]

In meets like that I look for sprinters with E6 and above rating. These are one dimensional speed balls that only know one thing when they go to the track and that is run as fast as they can as far as they can. They are always ready.

[VigorsTheGrey]

I think recently is pretty important at least for Keeneland though not necessarily at keeneland.
If you look at the stats from last year, most of the winners had a start within say the last 60 days.

Woodbine is interesting because so many horses are coming off layoffs. Who is our resident expert for woodbine here at pace?

[acorn54]

especially now a days horse racing is going through a very rapid transformation. i dare say as few years back as 2013 you had 2x as many race horses running as you do today.
to try to get a handle on what works and doesn't work nowadays is like trying to hit a moving target.
the horsemen hold all the cards and can pick and choose races where there is little competition for their horse that is ready to win.
you fall into a trap to which you will probably regret later if you try to generalize the best training for a racehorse. it varies from class level to class level, and from time of year, among other factors.