Really Bad Kentucky Derby

[menifee]

After watching all the preps, I think this might be the worst Derby in years. These horses stink. This field stinks.

2 maidens might be in the race if Laoban gets in.

Nyquist is a nice horse, but I think he is running the same race he ran last year. No one has gotten any better.

Too bad we don't have a quality filly this year who could compete - it would be a nice story as she would have a real shot.

I apologize in advance for being negative. I love this sport - I just wish this 3 yr old crop had some stars. Frosted, AP, Dortmund, Firing Line, Materiality, Upstart would lay over this field.

I do think you get some prices this year as the major preps were all distorted due to fast paces.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Actually, you/we should be happy.

The likelihood of a price is substantial, and the exotics are possibly life changing.

Do you really want another $100 Trifecta in the Derby?

Not sure why anybody would complain about a wide open Kentucky Derby with an extremely vulnerable favorite.

[Zaf]

Maybe so, but if Nyquist stays sound, could we have two back to back TC winners ? That would be a fun ride ?

Z

[menifee]

Actually, you/we should be happy.

The likelihood of a price is substantial, and the exotics are possibly life changing.

Do you really want another $100 Trifecta in the Derby?

Not sure why anybody would complain about a wide open Kentucky Derby with an extremely vulnerable favorite.

As a handicapper - I'm happy.

As a fan - not so much. Seeing Trojan Nation and Oscar Nominated battle in the stretch doesn't do it for me. I've seen better horses in the 5th at Parx on a Monday.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Maybe so, but if Nyquist stays sound, could we have two back to back TC winners ? That would be a fun ride ?

Z

I'd wager a few Grover Clevelands against Nyquist winning 2 races in the Triple Crown.

[EMD4ME]

[QUOTE=menifee]As a handicapper - I'm happy.

As a fan - not so much. Seeing Trojan Nation and Oscar Nominated battle in the stretch doesn't do it for me. I've seen better trotters in the 9th at the Meadowlands.


Fixed that for ya! 14 second last 1/8th gets you passed by a trotter!

[SecretAgentMan]

I definitely think you will see some big prices this year. Last years derby had too many good horses & like you mentioned, its opposite this year.

But IMO, this years derby which has many people feeling its wide open, with pay a huge triple & super. The derby is more fun to the public when payouts are astronomical because the derby is do hard to figure out like this year.

Everyone complained that we hadn't seen a triple crown winner, & whamo, AP & the best trainer ever pull it off last year.

O'Neil won his derby in 2012 & he's no Baffert. Nyquist is a good horse but beatable in a 20 horse field, especially knowing Outwork & maybe one or 2 more will be out there in front causing problems for Nyquist.

Everyone is hyping up the Southern Cali horses this year. I'm gonna go out on a limb & say that no Cali horse will hit the triple.

[Zaf]

I'd wager a few Grover Clevelands against Nyquist winning 2 races in the Triple Crown.

This horse gets no respect. Why ?

Z

[Lemon Drop Husker]

As a handicapper - I'm happy.

As a fan - not so much. Seeing Trojan Nation and Oscar Nominated battle in the stretch doesn't do it for me. I've seen better horses in the 5th at Parx on a Monday.

And Rich Perloff would be there to tell all about the conditions of that race. :lol:

Yeah, there isn't much pep this year other than Nyquist staying undefeated. And everybody and their dog is going to be looking to make his trip difficult. He'll need a good post, luck, and a great ride.

[Zaf]

And Rich Perloff would be there to tell all about the conditions of that race. :lol:

Yeah, there isn't much pep this year other than Nyquist staying undefeated. And everybody and their dog is going to be looking to make his trip difficult. He'll need a good post, luck, and a great ride.

Yep the Derby will be tough no doubt.

Z

[Lemon Drop Husker]

This horse gets no respect. Why ?

Z

I have respect for Nyquist. Undefeated 2YO horse of the year has put away every challenge to date.

I think everybody does have respect for him. But you have to be honest. He is beatable. Very beatable.

His times and races are slow. Not his fault, because he always wins. They are what they are.

[Zaf]

No doubt I am rooting for him but betting against him.

Z

[CincyHorseplayer]

We had actual greatness last year and this year we might have potential mutuel greatness. Can't you just love the kindness of reality for 2 seconds without getting all uppity?! :cool:

[CincyHorseplayer]

The Derby should be hard. Ask me why I think the Derby has gotten softer and it's not because of the points system it's because of the lack of initiative. By my last count I had 8 of the TC preps with a clear early lead at the half. Now they are ready to buckle down and thank god, 100-1 shots shouldn't have been the only ones chasing Nyquist thus far. Etc etc. You get my point. Greatness should not be conceded. AP earned it tough and nasty last year. After the Derby they knew he couldn't lose and he put the foot on the neck. Nobody had the balls to go after him. Maybe we get a pot of less greatness we get an actual horse race. It's been a while since I've been on here for a Triple Crown chase. Must say not only has it been a blast being glued to this with my fellow horse junkies! But I think just about any and all of us will be or could be live in this one. Greatness is great. Greatness is good for people who DON'T play the game. Payoffs in mega pots are what we dream of just as equally in our Buckpasser in the X hearts! :D

[boys at tosconova]

i'm starting to worry about every speed horse. what if nyquist was in the ark derby and had the same post as cupid

jeez...the 12 ran better than cupid

[Lemon Drop Husker]

i'm starting to worry about every speed horse. what if nyquist was in the ark derby and had the same post as cupid

jeez...the 12 ran better than cupid

I don't want to say I told you so, but.... I told you so. :cool:

[burnsy]

The "over all" field may be a little weaker but there maybe a couple of good horses in this generation. Its too early to tell and some of that is the lack of initiative like Cincy posted. Take Cupid, he wins his maiden, then the Rebel and winning two races people think he's a proven commodity at longer distances. The way he runs, that horse had red flags all over him going further, we knew there was money to be made yesterday, we just picked the wrong one. Lack of seasoning; some of these horses are attempting to break a maiden, win a stakes or two and then win the derby. Not saying it can't be done but c'mon, that can't be expected either. You go through that field in the Ark Derby and there's a bunch of horses that have really never won a thing. The Wood and Bluegrass were a little bit the same way. Even the FLA Derby had Nyquist and a handful of 100-1 shots with hardly no races. There is definitely a lack of initiative to start and run these horses when you see who ends up entering in some of these late prep races. Just to "dream" or fill the entry box in hopes of a big check. I'll be looking at horses with proven seasoning in this years derby and they are few and far between.....but there are some and a couple will get lost in the shuffle, they always do. One or more will emerge from this group and with the lack of racing competition its way too early to know how good these horses will be. I'm not a trainer or anything but waiting until late winter/early spring to plan a "Derby run"...(with zero prior experience)...I don't see how you get the foundation necessary to win the thing at 10 furlongs. Those are the ones I'll be liking, including Nyquist, because even at low odds you probably got to use him in numbers. He's won more races than some of these chumps have attempted.....and there are a few others too that fit that bill and will be a price. Too early to tell.

[tanner12oz]

After watching all the preps, I think this might be the worst Derby in years. These horses stink. This field stinks.

2 maidens might be in the race if Laoban gets in.

Nyquist is a nice horse, but I think he is running the same race he ran last year. No one has gotten any better.

Too bad we don't have a quality filly this year who could compete - it would be a nice story as she would have a real shot.

I apologize in advance for being negative. I love this sport - I just wish this 3 yr old crop had some stars. Frosted, AP, Dortmund, Firing Line, Materiality, Upstart would lay over this field.

I do think you get some prices this year as the major preps were all distorted due to fast paces.

I kinda agree..i think we have alot of slow one pace clunker types. You hardly saw anything dominating or push button this year

[Huddy Goodjob]

He has been out of sight so all forget...Only contender to show tactical speed...Gun Runner. Put him anywhere in the race...he has the speed to get the hole he needs, wait, and go again. This is setting up perfect for him.

[Fager Fan]

The Rodney Dangerfield of horses - Nyquist.

[Mc990]

This horse gets no respect. Why ?

Z

Because he is slow. If this were 1970 and we didn't have the metrics/figures we have today, Nyquist would probably look like a solid favorite. Luckily for most handicappers, it's not 1970...

[Tom]

The only thing Nyquist hasn't done so far is sprout wings.

[PowerUpPaynter]

I see no reason why Nyquist won't win the Derby. For me its a matter of who finishes 2-4. Really what makes him "vulnerable"? My early thoughts are fast pace but Nyquist has a trip kind of like California Chrome sitting off the lead by a few, takes the lead at the top of the stretch. Then I see gun runner and 2 closers filling out the super in any order.

Nyquist hasn't really done anything wrong.

[SecretAgentMan]

I see no reason why Nyquist won't win the Derby. For me its a matter of who finishes 2-4. Really what makes him "vulnerable"? My early thoughts are fast pace but Nyquist has a trip kind of like California Chrome sitting off the lead by a few, takes the lead at the top of the stretch. Then I see gun runner and 2 closers filling out the super in any order.

Nyquist hasn't really done anything wrong.



Nyquist is a good horse, but comparing him to Chrome is ridiculous. Did you see how fast Chrome was & his times were off the charts in his last 2 prep races before the KD. Nyquist isn't as fast., but is 7 for 7, which is really good.

He kind of looks the part, but I can't play him, & if he beats me, so be it. His white count was unstable after the Fla derby, & supposedly he was tired & stressed out because of it. I wonder if he gets washed out before the KD.

Any sort of sickness or problems with a horse before the derby is a complete toss for me, & the trainer is playing it up like its nothing.

[burnsy]

He has been out of sight so all forget...Only contender to show tactical speed...Gun Runner. Put him anywhere in the race...he has the speed to get the hole he needs, wait, and go again. This is setting up perfect for him.

Actually he's one of the ones I am thinking about....just runs, and wins. Looks better every race as the distances increase. Just can tell that this is Asmussen's real, deal horse. A lot to like there, relaxes, with cover, then blows the top off. Only 5 starts, but 4 of them are "bang up" and the last two add a nice foundation. The horses in Sothern California, a couple of different winners, but consistent starters (they run). Then there's Nyquist, he's an obvious contender. But you need more than what he will offer in any kind of straight bet to make real money. This weekend probably lowered the win price on him too. Plus, I can see why people are not totally sold, I'm not. If you think he is really fast, runs straight all the time and covers ground really well late.....well, other than the BC race I have not seen that. I kind of thought the FLA Derby was kind of mediocre. When Mohaymen packed it in he was besting a bunch of 100-1 shots, maiden breakers. Still, its so obvious he will be bet too hard for me to like without including others. My reply, as usual with the chalkers. Anyone with half a handicapping brain can see that Nyquist is the obvious favorite...but that and 5 bucks will get me a Starbucks. Myopic- short sighted in every sense. If you love favorites all the time, especially in a race like this cattle herd...read the definition..... :lol: That's how I come up with my winners/tickets...the most obvious horse.......not.

[zico20]

After watching all the preps, I think this might be the worst Derby in years. These horses stink. This field stinks.

2 maidens might be in the race if Laoban gets in.

Nyquist is a nice horse, but I think he is running the same race he ran last year. No one has gotten any better.

Too bad we don't have a quality filly this year who could compete - it would be a nice story as she would have a real shot.

I apologize in advance for being negative. I love this sport - I just wish this 3 yr old crop had some stars. Frosted, AP, Dortmund, Firing Line, Materiality, Upstart would lay over this field.

I do think you get some prices this year as the major preps were all distorted due to fast paces.

Agree with you 100%. This field stinks and I do not think Nyquist is going to win. I did not like his Florida Derby race at all. As of right now I am going to go with Mohaymen and hope he just didn't take to the off track. If he really didn't handle the surface I think he is still the best three year old colt in the country. Nobody else impresses me one bit, other than Nyquist, based solely on his perfect record.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Actually he's one of the ones I am thinking about....just runs, and wins. Looks better every race as the distances increase. Just can tell that this is Asmussen's real, deal horse. A lot to like there, relaxes, with cover, then blows the top off. Only 5 starts, but 4 of them are "bang up" and the last two add a nice foundation. The horses in Sothern California, a couple of different winners, but consistent starters (they run). Then there's Nyquist, he's an obvious contender. But you need more than what he will offer in any kind of straight bet to make real money. This weekend probably lowered the win price on him too. Plus, I can see why people are not totally sold, I'm not. If you think he is really fast, runs straight all the time and covers ground really well late.....well, other than the BC race I have not seen that. I kind of thought the FLA Derby was kind of mediocre. When Mohaymen packed it in he was besting a bunch of 100-1 shots, maiden breakers. Still, its so obvious he will be bet too hard for me to like without including others. My reply, as usual with the chalkers. Anyone with half a handicapping brain can see that Nyquist is the obvious favorite...but that and 5 bucks will get me a Starbucks. Myopic- short sighted in every sense. If you love favorites all the time, especially in a race like this cattle herd...read the definition..... :lol: That's how I come up with my winners/tickets...the most obvious horse.......not.

Like this Burnsy! And I agree yeah I'll take chalk in a 6 horse field at Turf Paradise on a Monday not the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May. The blur between these realities has genuinely been a staple of comedy this triple crown chase! :D

[Grits]

I see no reason why Nyquist won't win the Derby. For me its a matter of who finishes 2-4. Really what makes him "vulnerable"? My early thoughts are fast pace but Nyquist has a trip kind of like California Chrome sitting off the lead by a few, takes the lead at the top of the stretch. Then I see gun runner and 2 closers filling out the super in any order. Nyquist hasn't really done anything wrong.

Reason #1. His trainer and owner have a penchant for scratching their horse the morning of a big race.

Reason #2. The Japanese businessmen/breeders are quite aware he hasn't really done anything wrong, too.

Never forget past history, else we're bound to repeat same. :faint:

[f2tornado]

Nyquist hasn't really done anything wrong.

He has not done anything great either. He was slow going into the Juvenile. The Juvenile itself was nothing great. He warned up with a nice looking sprint then had it easy in Florida. I'm not a big Beyer player but that 94 is mediocre for G1 prep. He has had easy inside trips in every race aside from the Juvenile. His sire line is suspect. His dosage is a joke. He will have far more speed to contend with in May. He will have strong closers to contend with as well. He fits a couple angles otherwise I'd toss completely. I'm all about playing favorites but when I can identify one that appears quite vulnerable, particularly a day with a bunch of uniformed money being played, then I will play against.

[PowerUpPaynter]

I think his Florida derby was impressive. He shipped across country, won easy, and had some nice fractions in the final 3/8 and 1/8.


He is no chrome but this crop is sorta pathetic so I don't think he needs to be California chrome to have a similar set up and similar result. In my opinion the next best horses are closers but closers hardly ever win the derby. Gun Runner isn't so great. So its hard to make a case for someone else. Is Mohaymen going to bounce back? Is My Man Sam really going to take down Nyquist? Maybe Mor Spirit... I don't know but I know its easy to say he is vulnerable, I just don't see who can beat him.

[boys at tosconova]

i'm getting the feeling nyquist, gun runner and any other speed type would have had the same result as cupid did if either were in the arkansas. they may of finished better, but i don't think they would have won.

cupids last race in the rebel was awesome..he was suppose to lose or be beaten in that race the way it went down...i;m shocked the horse didn't finish better. in the ark. but i'm not really shocked who finished 1-3rd...those were figure horses that had pace to run at.

as for the derby...most of those deep closers like the top 3 finishers in the ark don;t even get a call, let alone finish itm.

[Huddy Goodjob]

i'm getting the feeling nyquist, gun runner and any other speed type would have had the same result as cupid did if either were in the arkansas. they may of finished better, but i don't think they would have won.

cupids last race in the rebel was awesome..he was suppose to lose or be beaten in that race the way it went down...i;m shocked the horse didn't finish better. in the ark. but i'm not really shocked who finished 1-3rd...those were figure horses that had pace to run at.

as for the derby...most of those deep closers like the top 3 finishers in the ark don;t even get a call, let alone finish itm.

Gun Runner would have had the trip Dazzling Gem got but would have had the wind to last.

[glengarry]

In terms of speed figs, it's all relative. Nyquist has not put up the numbers that previous winners have, but he will be facing a field filled with late running plodders. His juvenile win was sensational. Not a horse in this crop wins that race with that trip. He has won in 3 states over different track conditions. That tells me, Like O'Neill said before the Florida Derby, that Nyquist can run on anything. That takes a lot of the guesswork out of the derby, as a lot of horses don't seem to handle Churchill's surface. When in doubt in the Derby, I like to go with a tractable horse who has shown brilliance compared to his peers. Nyquist can hit the lead or stalk and pounce.

If he trains well in his last 2 works, I see no reason other than hubris to pitch him completely. It's the derby, so anything is possible. If he draws poorly or seems a little less than stellar in looks or in his final gallops, then I can look to beat him, especially at 7 to 2. But I hate to ignore his accomplishments as his best beats this crop with ease, barring a horror trip that his natural speed can help him avoid.

[Robert Fischer]

People complain every year that it's the worst crop.

We had people complaining last year too, even with AP and strong prep performances from several others.

Then after the triple crown series, we'll hear complaints again , every year.

You hear arguments about raw final times, beyers, etc...


I LOVE THIS YEAR'S CROP. May not be any hall of famers (although Nyquist has been every bit the superstar that most crops produce in most years).

More importantly from a betting and handicapping standpoint, we've had major preps that were affected by trips and pace! We haven't had super trainers and favorites trot around at leisurely paces every prep race.
Several of the preps were actually pace-collapses. We've had trips.
I love it.

[PowerUpPaynter]

People complain every year that it's the worst crop.

We had people complaining last year too, even with AP and strong prep performances from several others.

Then after the triple crown series, we'll hear complaints again , every year.

You hear arguments about raw final times, beyers, etc...


I LOVE THIS YEAR'S CROP. May not be any hall of famers (although Nyquist has been every bit the superstar that most crops produce in most years).

More importantly from a betting and handicapping standpoint, we've had major preps that were affected by trips and pace! We haven't had super trainers and favorites trot around at leisurely paces every prep race.
Several of the preps were actually pace-collapses. We've had trips.
I love it.



Don't forget off tracks as well

[Robert Fischer]

Don't forget off tracks as well

Yes.

Undoubtedly the process starts with your opinions of the favorites (Nyquist, Gun Runner, etc), but there is no doubt that this Kentucky Derby will call on your range of handicapping skills. This is a horseplayer's Derby.

[f2tornado]

Yes.

Undoubtedly the process starts with your opinions of the favorites (Nyquist, Gun Runner, etc), but there is no doubt that this Kentucky Derby will call on your range of handicapping skills. This is a horseplayer's Derby.

I agree it's a cappers Derby but gotta say, overall, these are some slow horses this year. Perhaps Beyer is being a tightwad with his speed figures but this Derby renewal probably has the fewest triple digit BSF starters in history. The slow final times in 9F preps do support this.

[Valuist]

I have respect for Nyquist. Undefeated 2YO horse of the year has put away every challenge to date.

I think everybody does have respect for him. But you have to be honest. He is beatable. Very beatable.

His times and races are slow. Not his fault, because he always wins. They are what they are.

Until he gets beat, can we really say he's too slow? His job is to win races, not impress figure makers.

[pondman]

Has anyone actually played the race in the last two years? This one may shape up to actually having a reasonable bet.

[SecretAgentMan]

Until he gets beat, can we really say he's too slow? His job is to win races, not impress figure makers.



You're right, until he's beat, he's #1. Doesn't anyone think he's already peaked. Maybe he pulls away & wins by 20 in the KD, but I certainly won't back him.

[f2tornado]

...as for the derby...most of those deep closers like the top 3 finishers in the ark don;t even get a call, let alone finish itm.

I agree and that's how I'm gonna play it. The Ark was slow.

[fiznow]

I wouldn't call this year's Derby bad but wide open. And there is still a 7 for 7 and 4 times G1 winner in it. My money will be on Tiznow son Majesto though who looks better and better after seeing all preps. ;)

[EMD4ME]

Yes.

Undoubtedly the process starts with your opinions of the favorites (Nyquist, Gun Runner, etc), but there is no doubt that this Kentucky Derby will call on your range of handicapping skills. This is a horseplayer's Derby.

And if this year I see a 3 2 1, 3 speed number across the track, I feel sorry for the HDTV in front of me.

It will see 2 chairs smash through it :D