final fraction update all big 5 prep races

[sbcaris]

Here are my final fraction qualifiers either 37 4/5 for final 3/8 or 12 4/5 for final eighth of a big 5 prep race. Fla Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass, Wood Memorial and Ark Derby.

Nyquist -------------------Florida Derby--------------37 4/5-----12 4/5
Majesto--------------------Florida Derby--------------------------12 4/5
Fellowship-----------------Florida Derby--------------37 4/5-----12 3/5
Exaggerator---------------Santa Anita Derby---------37 3/5------------
Brodys Cause-------------Blue Grass----------------- 37 3/5------------
My Man Sam--------------Blue Grass-----------------37 3/5------12 2/5
Cherry Wine---------------Blue Grass-----------------37 4/5------------
Creator--------------------Ark Derby------------------37 2/5------12 3/5
Suddenbreakingnews ----Ark Derby------------------37 4/5------12 4/5

My method does not bother with 100nds of a second since the daily racing form past performances did not always publish those fractions and in my opinion it is unnecessary to split the fractions so fine.

Tidbit: The fastest final 3/8 in Derby history was Strike The Gold back in the Blue Grass of 1991. He did the final 3/8 of that race in 35 2/5.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Here are my final fraction qualifiers either 37 4/5 for final 3/8 or 12 4/5 for final eighth of a big 5 prep race. Fla Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass, Wood Memorial and Ark Derby.

Nyquist -------------------Florida Derby--------------37 4/5-----12 4/5
Majesto--------------------Florida Derby--------------------------12 4/5
Fellowship-----------------Florida Derby--------------37 4/5-----12 3/5
Exaggerator---------------Santa Anita Derby---------37 3/5------------
Brodys Cause-------------Blue Grass----------------- 37 3/5------------
My Man Sam--------------Blue Grass-----------------37 3/5------12 2/5
Cherry Wine---------------Blue Grass-----------------37 4/5------------
Creator--------------------Ark Derby------------------37 2/5------12 3/5
Suddenbreakingnews ----Ark Derby------------------37 4/5------12 4/5

My method does not bother with 100nds of a second since the daily racing form past performances did not always publish those fractions and in my opinion it is unnecessary to split the fractions so fine.

Tidbit: The fastest final 3/8 in Derby history was Strike The Gold back in the Blue Grass of 1991. He did the final 3/8 of that race in 35 2/5.

Thanks for doing this.

I certainly appreciate it. :ThmbUp:

[CincyHorseplayer]

Yep great stuff Stan :ThmbUp:

[sammy the sage]

Humor me...put up Destin's TB derby final 3f's...has turned into a KEY race...yeah I know ALL the history...BBBBuuuutttttttttt history has BEEN BROKEN or made....like the last 5 derby's in a row....one way or another....

ps...not history per say...but RULEs...handicapping the derby in general....


such as lay-offs or breeder's cup juvenile winner or yada, yada, yada..

[Grits]

Thank you so much for your work, Sbc. ;)

[SecretAgentMan]

MMS & SBN are the only ones I like on that list.

[Parson]

Thank you so much for your work, Sbc. We all appreciate it very much

[Secondbest]

First ,Thanks for posting the final qualifiers. Stan, I'm curious how many final fraction qualifiers won the derby when the big 5 race was run in1:50 or more?

[MYKE]

I'm curious what the final fractions are for the horse that ran second in the wood memorial.....maybe the distance in the derby can help this horse win

[sbcaris]

Going back to 1973 Orb was the only Ky Derby winner that qualified on my final fraction indicator when the race was run in 1:50 or slower.

Interesting tidbit: Secretariat who ran third in the Wood Memorial of 1973 finished 4 lengths behind Angle Light who won the Wood in 1:49 4/5. So Secretariat who qualified on my final fraction indicator actually finished the Wood Memorial in 1:50 3/5.

[cj]

These are the best TimeformUS Adjusted Final fractions form each of the big 5 preps. The adjusted fractions take track speed into account and also track to track adjustments.

Santa Anita Derby
Exaggerator 36.91

Blue Grass
My Man Sam 37.48

Arkansas Derby
Creator 37.51

Florida Derby
Nyquist 37.55

Wood Memorial
Trojan Nation 38.29

[Secondbest]

Thanks against Stan. That is interesting about Secretariat. Did not know that.

[Martino]

Does anyone have the final fractions for gun runner?

[cj]

Does anyone have the final fractions for gun runner?

Officially - 38.05
TimeformUS Adjusted - 36.94

[Martino]

Thanks CJ. Can you please help explain the raw vs. adjusted time?

[cj]

Thanks CJ. Can you please help explain the raw vs. adjusted time?


The adjusted times use track speed and track to track comparisons so you don't have to do them yourself. They are what we use to make the Pace Projector along with the early and late speed ratings. They are also adjusted for distance and surface. So a 22 is a 22 is a 22, it is always faster than a 23 on pure velocity.

Deeper explanation here:

https://timeformusblog.com/2015/04/01/timeformuss-adjusted-fractions-are-better-than-official-fractions-heres-why/

[cj]

Thanks CJ. Can you please help explain the raw vs. adjusted time?


The Arkansas Derby was a great example of how it can all come together sometimes. Of course nothing works all the time. This was the Pace Projector below.

https://timeformus.files.wordpress.com/2016/04/screen-shot-2016-04-15-at-12-33-24-pm.png

If you believed it, and I'll be the first to admit I use it as a starting point and sometimes don't trust it implicitly, these were the top three late speed ratings:

Suddenbreakingnews 111
Creator 108
Discreetness 93

A lot of people like Whitmore but he was only an 88. The top two towered over the field and produced a nice $120 exacta. You don't have to get too many of those types to be profitable.

Anyway, point is the adjusted fractions drive all the pace stuff we do at TimeformUS. When you are looking at pace figures, they are just the adjusted times in another format.

[Huddy Goodjob]

Do you happen to have the adjusted numbers for the top 3 in each prep, including La Derby?

[cj]

Do you happen to have the adjusted numbers for the top 3 in each prep, including La Derby?

I can't give All our stuff away 😄

[VigorsTheGrey]

I can't give All our stuff away 😄

The derby would be an excellent place to showcase your product. Time form could provide free stuff for this one race for maximum exposure and if you are correct....a coup!

Max audience, max exposure...but I'm sure the team is aware of this.

Thanks for your efforts....PS, is the pace projector screen above that shows 3 and 4 trailing the field, what call is that for? The first I presume.

[cj]

The derby would be an excellent place to showcase your product. Time form could provide free stuff for this one race for maximum exposure and if you are correct....a coup!

Max audience, max exposure...but I'm sure the team is aware of this.

Thanks for your efforts....PS, is the pace projector screen above that shows 3 and 4 trailing the field, what call is that for? The first I presume.

Yeah, that stuff is out of my department. I give stuff away here and have a pretty long leash, but giving out the top three from each prep is a bit much and involves a bit of work on my part, so I'm passing.

Yes, the Pace Projector is for the official first call. That is two furlongs at less than one mile and four furlongs at a mile or longer.

[Cratos]

The derby would be an excellent place to showcase your product. Time form could provide free stuff for this one race for maximum exposure and if you are correct....a coup!

Max audience, max exposure...but I'm sure the team is aware of this.

Thanks for your efforts....PS, is the pace projector screen above that shows 3 and 4 trailing the field, what call is that for? The first I presume.
You are correct from a marketing point of view that the Derby might be a good place to showcase "handicapping products," but horseracing as an Industry must first standardize its product data into a usable form.

A good example is how Bill James and others improved MLB analytics in the sports handicapping arena with "sabermetrics."

The only wide spread analytic in horseracing is the "speedfigure methodology" which lacks scientific scrutiny and academic support.

This industry realizes about $11B annually in wagering from 53 racetracks and I believe with better analytics coupled with good race data collection and distribution that annual figure could easily be doubled even if the operating entities remained the same; however if a national private racing operating unit (e.g., the NFL, NBS, etc) would be formed, the sky would be the limit.

The reason for my optimism is that horserace betting plays to our natural instincts of American capitalism.

Before the Nay Sayers start with their "clean up" the industry cry, I agree there much to clean up and change in this industry to make it better, but it can be done

[Tom]

I'll ponder your thoughts on this subject as I finish off my doggie bag from a HUGE steak dinner paid for by TFUS Saturday. :p

[VigorsTheGrey]

I just can't help thinking that the Trakus technology is the way forward...with knowing the velocity and actual distance covered by each performer a known quantity. Potentially, one might superimpose the horses own races on top of each other and arrive at a maximum running style configuration...and then superimpose that onto today's race...after discount bounce and including additional positive factors....arrive at solid choices.

[Cratos]

I just can't help thinking that the Trakus technology is the way forward...with knowing the velocity and actual distance covered by each performer a known quantity. Potentially, one might superimpose the horses own races on top of each other and arrive at a maximum running style configuration...and then superimpose that onto today's race...after discount bounce and including additional positive factors....arrive at solid choices.
You are correct again, Trakus is the way to go ( and not because I am pro-Trakus) it is because you cannot discern "velocity" from Equibase data because you don't have "displacement"; you have "distance."

In our model each horse aggregate race curve is plotted against a standard race curve for the distance at the track in question.

Each horse curve is identified by its saddle cloth color and the area between horse's curve and the standard race curve is either minus energy or plus energy.

As you understand velocity is a vector and have direction. Therefore the typical horserace in NA will be a sprint race with two linear vectors and an angular vector. This is where the Trakus data shines.

This is a lot of work, but 8 people are working to find 60 wagers/year at odds of 3-1 or greater and bet a "bag of wooden nickels."

[PowerUpPaynter]

what do we make of Oscar Nominated running final 3/8 and 1/8 at 37 2/5 and 12 2/5 in the Spiral?

[f2tornado]

what do we make of Oscar Nominated running final 3/8 and 1/8 at 37 2/5 and 12 2/5 in the Spiral?

He beat four other allowance or optional claiming type horses by perhaps a collective length. That should inspire some negative confidence.

[SecretAgentMan]

what do we make of Oscar Nominated running final 3/8 and 1/8 at 37 2/5 and 12 2/5 in the Spiral?


I was scared of him a bit but I'm not anymore. I don't think he can win. Like mentioned above, he didn't beat much & is a $75,000 clamer. If Ramsey isn't putting up his own $200k, I don't think it wins.

[señorclipclop]

I was scared of him a bit but I'm not anymore. I don't think he can win. Like mentioned above, he didn't beat much & is a $75,000 clamer. If Ramsey isn't putting up his own $200k, I don't think it wins.

Charismatic was a claimer, too.

[SecretAgentMan]

Charismatic was a claimer, too.



Charismatic was never claimed, he ran in 2 claiming races, but Oscar Nominated was claimed from a claiming race for $75,000

I guess Lukas thought Charismatic was a crappy horse, but 5 races after the claiming race he won the derby. He also pulled off a 108 beyer in the Lexington.