LONE STAR PK - Sat - 4/16 - Live

[Nitro]

R#1 - 5-2 W/ 8-4-3

[Nitro]

R#1 - 5-2 W/ 8-4-3

Results:

R #1 = 4-2-3-1 - EX & TRI BX :ThmbUp:

$2.00 EXACTA – 4-2 - $88.60
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 4-2-3 - $536.80

[Nitro]

R#2 - 5-4 W/ 2-3 @ 3 mins to post

[Nitro]

R#2 - 5-4 W/ 2-3 @ 3 mins to post
Results:

R #2 = 2-4-5-3 - EX - TRI & SUPER BX :ThmbUp:

$2.00 EXACTA – 2-4 - $19.00
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 2-4-5 - $52.60
$2.00 SUPER – 2-4-5-3 - $323.40

[Nitro]

R#3 - 4-6 W/ 5-2 @ 3 mins to post

[Nitro]

R#3 - 4-6 W/ 5-2 @ 3 mins to post
Results:

R #3 = 6-7-1-2-4 - WIN

$2.00 WIN – 6 - $9.60

[Nitro]

R#4 - 7-3 W/ 6-1 @ 3 mins to post

[Nitro]

R#4 - 7-3 W/ 6-1 @ 3 mins to post
Results:

R #4 = 6-3-2-7 - WIN & EX BX

$2.00 WIN – 6 - $5.60
$2.00 EXACTA – 6-3 - $21.00

[Nitro]

R#5 - 6-1 W/ 4-7-8 @ 3 mins to post

[Nitro]

R#5 - 6-1 W/ 4-7-8 @ 3 mins to post
Results:

R #5 = 1-8-4-3 - WIN - EX & TRI BX :ThmbUp:

$2.00 WIN – 1 - $8.80
$2.00 EXACTA – 1-8 - $67.20
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 1-8-4 - $285.60

[Nitro]

R#6 - 1-7 W/ 6-3-8 @ 3 mins to post

[Nitro]

R#6 - 1-7 W/ 6-3-8 @ 3 mins to post
Results: BIG W/O the Favorite in the money!

R #6 = 7-6-8-3 - WIN - EX - TRI & SUPER BX :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

$2.00 WIN – 7 - $7.80
$2.00 EXACTA – 7-6 - $53.40
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 7-6-8 - $512.60
$2.00 SUPER – 7-6-8-3 - $1,419.80

[Nitro]

R#7 - 5-7 W/ 4-8-1 @ 3 mins to post

[Nitro]

R#7 - 5-7 W/ 4-8-1 @ 3 mins to post
Results:

R #7 = 7-5-4-1 - WIN - EX - TRI & SUPER BX :ThmbUp:

$2.00 WIN – 7 - $3.40
$2.00 EXACTA – 7-5 - $12.20
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 7-5-4 - $34.20
$2.00 SUPER – 7-5-4-1 - $118.80

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1-6 W/ 9-3-2 @ 3 mins to post

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1-6 W/ 9-3-2 @ 3 mins to post
Results:

R #8 = 1-7-5-2 - WIN - No clues on the LS Placer

$2.00 WIN – 1 - $5.20

[Nitro]

R#9 - 2-10 W/ 5-6-8 @ 3 mins to post

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Nitro, I see Japan is running, do you ever wager into those pools?

By the way, I know I've wagered on that :10: before.

GL, and bring it home.

[Nitro]

Nitro, I see Japan is running, do you ever wager into those pools?

By the way, I know I've wagered on that :10: before.

GL, and bring it home.
Hi there LemonDrop! The #10 looked good for a while but that extra ½ a furlong did him in. I got a nice run out of the LS #8, but it faded too. I’ll take the Win/Exacta and call it a n ight.

I don’t get involved with Japan or AUS racing because the tote pools aren’t co-mingled. Too bad because I love those big fields.

[Nitro]

R#9 - 2-10 W/ 5-6-8 @ 3 mins to post
Results:

R #9 = 2-6-1-7-10- WIN & EX

$2.00 WIN – 2 - $5.20
$2.00 EXACTA – 2-6 - $38.20

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Hi there LemonDrop! The #10 looked good for a while but that extra ½ a furlong did him in. I got a nice run out of the LS #8, but it faded too. I’ll take the Win/Exacta and call it a n ight.

I don’t get involved with Japan or AUS racing because the tote pools aren’t co-mingled. Too bad because I love those big fields.

Interesting. Obviously didn't know that. Then again, I know as much about Japan racing as I do brain surgery.

I've quit wagering on LS. Tried as hard as I could for 3 or 4 years, just couldn't ever win. Much like Aqueduct, I/we just have to avoid tracks that we have little to no success.

[Nitro]

I really enjoy Lone Star because most of the time the betting is solid with many of Insiders betting and as a result the betting patterns off the tote analysis are very accurate.

From 9 races Tonight: :ThmbUp:
- 7 Exactas
– 5 Triples
– 3 Supers
- 7 Key choice Winners w/2 others finishing 2nd

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I really enjoy Lone Star because most of the time the betting is solid with many of Insiders betting and as a result the betting patterns off the tote analysis are very accurate.

From 9 races Tonight: :ThmbUp:
- 7 Exactas
– 5 Triples
– 3 Supers
- 7 Key choice Winners w/2 others finishing 2nd


I can see that.

From what I remember when I was betting LS, I was heavy into watching the odds movement. Seemed like the horses getting late action were pretty tough.

[Nitro]

Lone Star Park – Race #6 – Tote Analysis (Example)

Keep in mind when using the analysis we're not looking for Winners.
We're looking for Winning plays!

PAR is the analyzed result of ALL the betting pools combined at each betting interval.
The numbers in RED are the individual Entry values closest to PAR.
The objective is simply to observe and compare PAR with each Entry value at each interval. OD1/OD2/OD3 are the entry odds at each interval.

# Name.......... Jockey....... M/L OD1 OD2 OD3 233 223 209 FIN
1 Singing Shadows Diego, Iram 2.0 2 1.4 1 81 102 119
2 Famous I D..... Urietajr, Vict 20.0 15 16 15 424 621 444
3 This Is Not Sonata Chacaltana, Ju 2.5 8 6 5 407 253 215 4
4 Divergent Girl Arellano, Ivan 15 8 9 11 554 473 374
5 Bling It On Deeya Rodriguez, Jai 20 9 13 16 254 270 298
6 Menhal's Lady. Sigala, Alfred 5 3.5 6 5 170 208 177 2
7 Devirow.......... Cabrera, David 3 4.5 4.5 4.5 186 233 215 1
8 Too Bits.......... Wade, Lindey 20 4.5 6 8 342 309 221 3.............To See Final Betting Interval-------------------->>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
R#6 - 1-7 W/ 6-3-8 @ 3 mins to post
Results: BIG W/O the Favorite in the money!

R #6 = 7-6-8-3 - WIN - EX - TRI & SUPER BX :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

$2.00 WIN – 7 - $7.80
$2.00 EXACTA – 7-6 - $53.40
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 7-6-8 - $512.60
$2.00 SUPER – 7-6-8-3 - $1,419.80
.
.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Very interesting.

I'd have been all over the :7::8:..., and lost. :(

How do you get these numbers?

[Nitro]

Very interesting.

I'd have been all over the :7::8:..., and lost. :(

How do you get these numbers?

The tote analysis I use takes in all the money in ALL of the available Mutual betting pools (Win-Plc-Sho) and the Exacta pools. The proprietary formulas (which I didn’t develop) analyze both the combined money in all the pools to generate the PAR value. It also then analyzes the monies being bet on each entry individually to generate the Entry values. It does this at predetermined betting intervals prior to post time (For LS its 10min, 7min and 4min.) It’s then just a matter of comparing PAR with each entry Value.

Would you be interested in seeing the analysis for the ARK Derby?

[Nitro]

Oaklawn Park – Race #11 – ARK Derby

# Name.......... Jockey....... M/L OD1 OD2 OD3 235
1 Discreetness... Court, Jon 20.0 40 529
2 Cutacorner...... Birzer, Alex 50.0 80 584
3 Creator........... Santanajr, Ric 10 11 229
4 Suddenbreakingnews Quinonez, Luis 5 5 216
5 American Pioneer Bejarano, Rafa 8 12 334
6 Unbridled Outlaw Lanerie, Corey 10 19 292
7 Dazzling Gem.. Talamo, Joseph 12 18 259
8 Whitmore........ Ortizjr, Irad 4.5 6 245
9 Luna De Loco... Bravo, Joe 30 90 586
10 Cupid........... Garcia, Martin 2 0.8 117
11 Gray Sky....... Vazquez, Ramon 30 60 517
12 Gettysburg.... Velazquez, Joh 6 14 297
Pick out the 5 Entry Values closest to PAR. 10-4 W/3-8-7

1st….3-Creator…………………........$25.20…….$8.60……$5.00
2nd…4-Suddenbreakingnews……….-……..…..$6.00.….$4.00
3rd….8-Whitmore………………......……-………....….-……….$3.80
4th….7-Dazzling Gem…………...…….-……….....….-….……….-

$2.00 EXACTA - 3-4 - $120.20
$2.00 TRIFECTA 3-4-8 $516.20

So a 5-horse $1.00 SUPER box was $120. And the return was $2,097.70 or 17/1! :ThmbUp:
.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Oaklawn Park – Race #11 – ARK Derby

# Name.......... Jockey....... M/L OD1 OD2 OD3 235
1 Discreetness... Court, Jon 20.0 40 529
2 Cutacorner...... Birzer, Alex 50.0 80 584
3 Creator........... Santanajr, Ric 10 11 229
4 Suddenbreakingnews Quinonez, Luis 5 5 216
5 American Pioneer Bejarano, Rafa 8 12 334
6 Unbridled Outlaw Lanerie, Corey 10 19 292
7 Dazzling Gem.. Talamo, Joseph 12 18 259
8 Whitmore........ Ortizjr, Irad 4.5 6 245
9 Luna De Loco... Bravo, Joe 30 90 586
10 Cupid........... Garcia, Martin 2 0.8 117
11 Gray Sky....... Vazquez, Ramon 30 60 517
12 Gettysburg.... Velazquez, Joh 6 14 297
Pick out the 5 Entry Values closest to PAR. 10-4 W/3-8-7

1st….3-Creator…………………........$25.20…….$8.60……$5.00
2nd…4-Suddenbreakingnews……….-……..…..$6.00.….$4.00
3rd….8-Whitmore………………......……-………....….-……….$3.80
4th….7-Dazzling Gem…………...…….-……….....….-….……….-

$2.00 EXACTA - 3-4 - $120.20
$2.00 TRIFECTA 3-4-8 $516.20

So a 5-horse $1.00 SUPER box was $120. And the return was $2,097.70 or 17/1! :ThmbUp:
.

Yeah, I hammered the :3::4: along with the :8: in the 2 and 3 hole. It was a very good race for me.

Unfortunately, I had the :7: out of my tickets as I 'capped a "fade" out of him. :mad: I "saved" like $16 to lose $2K:bang:

This is great stuff Nitro. I really appreciate you posting this.