formula's 2 horse win and exacta bets

[formula_2002]

I'll start a new thread with a different results format


win races bets exacta win my bet alt bet total

1 1 4 1.16 1.23 1.04 0.94 4.37
1 1 4 3.09 2.32 2.11 0.29 7.81
1 1 4 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.11 4.94
1 1 4 0.43 1.06 1.04 0.89 3.42
1 1 4 1.94 1.34 1.46 0.84 5.58




high lighted are the results for the last race at lone star (race 3)
all payoffs are based on a normalized bet ($1)
the exacta returned 1.94 units
the win bet (based on the exacta pool) returned 1.34 units
"my win bet" returned 1.46 units
"alternate bet" returned 0.84 units
total return was 5.58 units.

I'll post the expected probability, once I have review the charts.
the idea of this bet is as follows;

Here are several ways of betting two horses in a race. Regardless which wins, the combined sum of all several bets should outperform a flat bet on each. It also should outperform an odds related bet on each, that is bet size equal (1/odds+1).
There are total of four bets, exacta and three win bets.
These bets should win 60 to 65 percent of the time. So each bet should return a min $1.67 to $1.54 for each $1 bet, just to break even

[formula_2002]

0 "HK Sha Tin
Race
1

Post
1:00

MTP
4

$1 Quinella Pool
$14,322,338 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 win bet
1 5 4 9.26
2 21 19 40.30
3 22 21 42.59
4 3 3 5.76
5 2 2 3.47
6 1 1 2.66
7 11 10 21.68
8 8 7 14.76
9 3 3 6.72
10 5 20 21 3 2 2 12 8 4 14 8 4 12 115.28
11 5 18 19 3 2 1 11 7 4 14 8 4 11 107.49
12 8 7 15.02
13 4 4 7.72
14 12 11 23.26
15 0.00
16 0.00

[formula_2002]

the 416 unit quinella play returned 929 units for a $1 return of 2.23 units