HONG KONG - ShaTin - Sat 4/16 Live

[Nitro]

It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with 8 Turf and 2 AWT races and nice size fields in each one except Race #2.

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM SAT. EST

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) :ThmbUp:
http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

GL if you’re playing & feel free to join in !

In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with 2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) total Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

This same structure can be used with the Quinella/Place bet which means if either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money (1st, 2nd or 3rd) with them you can potentially hit on (3) Q/P bets. They generally don't pay as much unless a big LS shows up in the money.

Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive, but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this same structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 total Bets, but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both K's are in the money.

Good Luck!

[formula_2002]

I'll keep my computer running into the night and download the HK races.
I'll post my plays based on the 4 min to post time quinella and straight pools later.

good luck

[woodbinepmi]

Today's weather is looking like more rain, both the dirt and the turf are listed at good for the moment. The rail is set at C+3, usually that favours the horses near the lead. Unfortunately, all the favourites look to be legitimate tonight, thank goodness for large fields. Here are links for past performances:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20160416_starter_all.pdf

http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html

If we do get the rain and the track is downgraded here some off track specialist running tonight:
Race 1 :10: Hurry Hurry Up (7-1) in the money 14 out of 32 on the off
Race 4 :4: Modern Fortune (7-1) in the the money 7 out 13
Race 10 :1: Country Melody (13-1) 1 for 3 on the good to yielding
Race 10 :4: My Little Friend (28-1) 1 for 1 on the good to yielding

Horses that last raced and finished ahead of others that have come back and won in their next race in the same class or higher:
Race 5 :4: Almababy (7-1) winner came back and won going up in class.
Race 7 :2: Imperial Gallantry (18-1) the winner, 3rd and 10th place runners came back and won.

Runners that are on my watch list, enough trouble that cost them from winning their last out:
Race 9 :8: Jolly Banner (7-2) Bumped start, ridden to hold rail 2-back from leader. Shuffled back around turn, held for run 400m (Blocked), finished strongly when clear. Two races back: Bumped at the gate then hesitated to split a rival and the rail.
Race 10 :5: Washington Heights (5-2) Began only fairly, moved up to track leaders, held up until 300M (Blocked), ran on well up the rails, briefly led near 100M but no match with winner late stages, clear 2nd best. Winner that beat him has won 3 of his last 4, last going up from Class 3 to Class 2.

Good Luck

[Nitro]

Hey Woody. Nice insight to this morning's races! I'll keep my eye on the things you've mentioned.
GL

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I'm ready Nitro!

Lets do this!

[woodbinepmi]

15 to minutes to post for the 1st and we still have no video on Twin Spires, keep up the good Churchill!

[Nitro]

R#1 – 2-10 W/ 11-14-12-4

[trifecta]

Race 1:

I like the 2 - Safari Magic.

Good luck tonight everybody. :ThmbUp:

[woodbinepmi]

Nothing coming to me on the first, would like the bug girl on the :3: but can't take that barrier draw 10. Was hoping for a little more water on the track for the :10: , passing the race.
Have lost a lot of interest on dirt racing since moving everything to Hong Kong.

[Nitro]

R#1 – 2-10 W/ 11-14-12-4
Results

R# 1 = 9-11-10-2 - Nothing in that one -
Winner was crushed late (2 mins to post) – 26/1 to 17/1!! :eek:
,
,

[Nitro]

R# 2 - 3-6 W/ 4-2

[woodbinepmi]

Another race not really feeling anything coming my way, :3: Blizzard was very rank in the Derby and obviously didn't care for the distance. Don't want 3-2 on the favourite :6: a 3 year old going up in class against quality Class 1 racers. Can't play :2: with Ng on board. If Purton can get loose on the :4: Dashing Fellow he'll be tough to catch late. Another race I'm passing.

[woodbinepmi]

If Zach Purton would have given that ride at Evangeline Downs they would be screaming fix, what the hell was that all about with that ride. Get an easy lead and just give it up like that.?

[Nitro]

If Zach Purton would have given that ride at Evangeline Downs they would be screaming fix, what the hell was that all about with that ride. Get an easy lead and just give it up like that.?
Yeah I agree 100%! Very strange and obvious in a small field.

[Nitro]

But worse then that it looks like we’re already having some site glitches!
Hopefully we won’t have any additional interruptions this morning!

[Nitro]

R# 2 - 3-6 W/ 4-2
Results

R# 2 = 6-1-5-3 - WIN - no clues on the LS Placer

$2.00 WIN – 6 - $5.10

[woodbinepmi]

Glad that are getting these races out of the way early: AWT's, short field and a 1000 metres.
The :5: Winning Vibe was on my watch list from 2 races back on the dirt, don't know why he ran the way he did in his last but Moreira staying on, he must be fine.
Not playing much here: :5: with :3: Bug girl, :6: first time starter with Purton (was on the vet list with a lame right hind back in December) :12: was wide in last. the :4: and :1: only in the third spot.

[Nitro]

R# 3 - 5-8 W/ 3-10-4-1

[woodbinepmi]

Good one sir, I was scared off the :8: by his odds (99-1) in his last race. Am learning that they curve into their condition more here than in the States, would NEVER bet a horse who ran 2nd at 100-1 in their next race here. Miss the wedding and show for the funeral. :5: Winning Vibe looks like a plodder or just has no heart for competition.

[Nitro]

R# 3 - 5-8 W/ 3-10-4-1

Thanks Woody! That's exactly why I had him!
Results

R# 3 = 8-5-4-3 - WIN – QUIN – Q/P & TRI :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

$2.00 WIN – 8 - $23.70
$2.00 QUINELLA – 5-8 - $33.80 & Q/P - $13.10
$2.00 Q/P – 4-8 - $43.60 & 4-5 - $15.40
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 8-5-4 – $718.40
($2.00 SUPER/QUARTET – $1,751.40

[woodbinepmi]

Have no idea on the 4th, could make a case for at least 7 to 8 horses in this race. Not sold on the favourite, believe they are over betting Moreira, my notes on his last was: beaten due to lighter weight. Passing another.

[Nitro]

R# 4 - 12-1 W/ 2-8-7-10

[Nitro]

R# 4 - 12-1 W/ 2-8-7-10
Results

R# 4 = 12-4-8-9 - WIN & Q/P– not much real action on the Placer

$2.00 WIN – 12 - $7.10
$2.00 Q/P – 8-12 - $14.90

[woodbinepmi]

Would rarely think that a move from the 5 hole to the 10 would be an improvement on the draw, but the way :3: Wah May Friend ran in his last, being on the outside should help. Refused to split in the stretch. Hopefully Purton rides better in this one than he did in the 2nd, chased a favourite winner in his last race.
Taking both on top :1: :3: over :6: back class and also chased a winner, :4: coming out of a key race, :7: lots of trouble. For third place only: :5: :10: .
Scared of the French invader :2:

[Nitro]

R# 5 - 4-10 W/ 3-1-5-9

[Nitro]

R# 5 - 4-10 W/ 3-1-5-9 Results

R# 5 = 2-1-5-6 - Nothing in that one - Some early money clues on the LS Winner - #6 took the late action
I generally avoid 1st time HK runners

[woodbinepmi]

Results

R# 5 = 2-1-5-6 - Nothing in that one - Some early money clues on the LS Winner - #6 took the late action
I generally avoid 1st time HK runners
Me too. Was hoping that it was a workout for something longer than 6 furlongs, but he was getting some action early at around 9-1. Usually those invaders are around 30-1, that's what made me so nervous about him.

[woodbinepmi]

Going here with the :2: Unbeatable Guts has a horrible draw (12) and a bug boy who needs a map to find the winners' circle. But, the good news. Is coming out of a race even though he finished poorly but did have some trouble in that race breaking really slowly 2 winners came out of. Has been overmatched in Class 3, his last 4 races at this class level he has a win and 2 seconds all at 1400 metres.
Keying him with the chalk :1: Able Deed who also had some trouble in his last.
:1: :2: with :6: Trouble and rank :8: Blocked and refused to split two runners in the stretch :3: and :10: :4: for third.

Replaced the :4: with the scratch of the :11:

[Nitro]

R# 6 - 4-1 W/ 8-7-5-2

[Nitro]

R# 6 - 4-1 W/ 8-7-5-2
Results

R# 6 = 6-3-7-4 - Nothing in that one - No clues on the top 2 LS

[TucsonGreyhound]

Anyone got a link to live video stream for Sha Tin?

[woodbinepmi]

Xpressbet and Twin Spires are the only ways I know of at the moment. Have talked to them about putting a link on their website for it, will bug them until they give in.

About time Mr. Moreira makes an appearance in the winners' circle. Hopefully he doesn't get too far back and saves ground and makes the run in the stretch.

:3: with the :1: :2: coming out of a race with 3 winners :5: over :10: :14: :6: nice effort after breaking slow.

Scared of the :8: was full of run but was blocked and spit the bit afterwards

[Nitro]

R# 7 - 3-14 W/ 4-12-13-8

[Nitro]

Xpressbet and Twin Spires are the only ways I know of at the moment. Have talked to them about putting a link on their website for it, will bug them until they give in.

About time Mr. Moreira makes an appearance in the winners' circle. Hopefully he doesn't get too far back and saves ground and makes the run in the stretch.

:3: with the :1: :2: coming out of a race with 3 winners :5: over :10: :14: :6: nice effort after breaking slow.

Scared of the :8: was full of run but was blocked and spit the bit afterwardsNice call on the Quinella Woody! :ThmbUp:

I think its been a very strange card so far.

[Nitro]

R# 7 - 3-14 W/ 4-12-13-8
Results

R# 7 = 5-3-4-14 - Nothing in that one - Some very late action on the Winner

[woodbinepmi]

Nice call on the Quinella Woody! :ThmbUp:

I think its been a very strange card so far.
Thanks, Q came back paying well, would have been a nice hit if the :14: would have held off the :4: .
We had to get through the wash to get to the better races.

[woodbinepmi]

Going to try and beat the big favourite here, his last was a taxing effort and now he has a tougher barrier draw. Would rather see him taken back like he did in his debut at Happy Valley and give a Dehere like run in the stretch again.

Going with :2: Lovely Delovely (37-1) throw out his last on the dirt, was wide in the Class 2 before that and was in higher rating Class 2 races in before that. Can win here if he can repeat the Valentine's Day effort.

Going :2: :3: Bug girl on the lead with :4: :6: Purton taking the import ride over :5: :9: :10: for third.
Need the :12: to stumble at the break, take some speed out of the race.

[Nitro]

R# 8 - 12-4 W/ 6-3-8-2

[woodbinepmi]

Couldn't really tell if he didn't want to go by the leader or if the weight kept the front runner up. May need a full cup on his right eye to stop that waiting until he gets up against better competition after the fall break.

[Nitro]

R# 8 - 12-4 W/ 6-3-8-2
Results

R# 8 = 4-3-8-6 - WIN – QUIN – Q/P & TRI

$2.00 WIN – 4 - $3.80
$2.00 QUINELLA – 3-4 - $6.60 & Q/P - $3.50
$2.00 Q/P – 4-8 - $9.10 & 3-8 - $16.70
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 4-3-8 – $82.80
($2.00 SUPER/QUARTET – $287.00)

[woodbinepmi]

Race 9 has the first of my watch list horses here with Jolly Banner (7-2) Bumped start, ridden to hold rail 2-back from leader. Shuffled back around turn, held for run 400m (Blocked), finished strongly when clear. Two races back: Bumped at the gate then hesitated to split a rival and the rail.

Betting against the current favourite :9: Right Call (5-2) got a perfect trip while chasing a quitter who went out way too fast, then had to get to his bottom and hold off a 23-1 1 for 30 rival, now moving up in class. No thanks.

Going :8: with :6: :2: over :9: :1: :5: :14: light weight on the rail

[Nitro]

R# 9 - 9-5 W/ 1-8-2-14

[woodbinepmi]

Here is a link for the video for Macau:
http://www.mjc.mo/race_en/info/live.php

and past performances for tomorrow's races:
http://campaign.hkjc.com/en/2016-apqe/form-guide.pdf

[Nitro]

Race 9
Going :8: with :6: :2: over :9: :1: :5: :14: light weight on the rail Nice call on that Winner & Quinella! :ThmbUp:

[Nitro]

R# 9 - 9-5 W/ 1-8-2-14
Results

R# 9 = 8-6-12-5 - Nothing in that one - No clues on the LS Placer
#12 took all the late action!

[woodbinepmi]

The inch that the :12: beat the :5: by in the 9th hurt, but still good result. Happier than my Mum at the moment, the Brisbane Lions just beat her Gold Coast Suns she can't be happy at the moment, will call her tomorrow and rub it in.

Second of my watch horses is the 10th.
:5: Washington Heights (5-2) Began only fairly, moved up to track leaders, held up until 300M (Blocked), ran on well up the rails, briefly led near 100M but no match with winner late stages, clear 2nd best. Winner that beat him has won 3 of his last 4, last going up from Class 3 to Class 2.

Going :5: over :1: rank and trouble in last, :3: drop in class :2: a dirt specialist, should add to pace from the rail over :7: :6: :4:

[woodbinepmi]

Here is a link for the past performances for all the stakes races tomorrow at Macau:
http://www.hkjc.com/english/corporate/racing_news_item.asp?in_file=/english/news/2016-04/news_2016041401608.html

[Nitro]

R# 10 - 5-3 W/ 7-1-2-6

[woodbinepmi]

Good night, will be back Wednesday morning for Happy Valley

[Nitro]

R# 10 - 5-3 W/ 7-1-2-6

Results – We got All of that one!

R# 10 = 5-3-6-7 - WIN – QUIN – Q/P & TRI :ThmbUp:

$2.00 WIN – 5 - $5.40
$2.00 QUINELLA – 3-5 - $17.10 & Q/P - $7.20
$2.00 Q/P – 5-6 - $15.80 & 3-6 - $27.40
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 5-3-6 – $314.40
($2.00 SUPER/QUARTET – $1,365.40)

It was bit of a struggle this morning, but the finale made it worthwhile.
Have a good day.

[formula_2002]

I posted the 1st race live on my thread "formula's 2 horse win and exacta bets"

the quinella returned the equivalent of $2.23 for a $1 bet. and then

2nd race returned 1.83
3rd race returned 1.68
4th race returned 1.86
5th race returned 2.56
6th ran out
7th no play

6 races cost $6 and returned $10.16 for a $4.16 profit

these results were so go because my two picks are generally the 1st through 3rd choices in the betting, and those horses had a very good day!! :)

the computer did not download any race data beyond the 7th race