ark derby cursory glance/analysis

[boys at tosconova]

creator. SBN snd whitmore are hard to separate. all have some nice angles to dictate a play. seems outright deadly to play one and not all of them.

dazzling gem -like i said in another thread..reminds me of laoban. if he can get a place up close w/ a slow ace he could be around..although the horse doesn't strike me to have a breakout race here...i could easily see a flat even race once again.

discreetness- horse might be buried in here. last race wasn't great, but it wasn't total crap...and he only lost 3rd by 4L,,,and if you look back you see that he was a fav vs mo tom and did beat SBN. doesn't look like he's going in the right direction but he'll be 30-60-1 w/ the mentioned angles i tell you.

cutacorner- seems to outrun himself and everything else he give you is gravy. may not be able to cut graded competition. but only lost a length to SBN and draws inside. will be longer than he should be.

american pioneer - would have liked to seen goats run a lil better (have to go back and watch race)..but just because he only finished 6th in the BG didn't doesn't mean this one will run poorly. can't ignore the possible upward trend, and the horse is suppose to be a good one. should get a square price

unbridled outlaw- i can see people liking the horse. romans,..2nd race off of layoff. versatile horse that can leave and sit back and stalk....big question is if he's classy enough. you have to give the horse some chance for an itm finish

luna del loco- another one that won't get much money and can improve. leave for posiiton and pray for horse....however,..like some of the same he might not be good enough.

cupid- could get used to get the front..or the horse might just be good enough and it won't matter. regardless,..he'll be very low odds

grey sky. - again,,,horse might not be good enough but own some tactical speed....post really hurts the horse. and he'll have to overcome that as well..can;t dismiss entirely

gettysburg - play outside and prepare to lose. expensive horse might not be good enough as it seems they';re ducking or avoiding anything good,,,,,but there are a lot of class challenged horses in here..and i;m sure people will give this one more of a look than others

[SecretAgentMan]

IMO, its between Cupid & Whitmore. I'm seeing Whitmore making another bid against Cupid in the stretch but Cupid should be good enough, but I hope the battle neck to neck to the finish.

SBN seems that he will need a fast pace & meltdown to close. The others I don't care for much. I'm ready to see what happens tomorrow.

[boys at tosconova]

IMO, its between Cupid & Whitmore. I'm seeing Whitmore making another bid against Cupid in the stretch but Cupid should be good enough, but I hope the battle neck to neck to the finish.

SBN seems that he will need a fast pace & meltdown to close. The others I don't care for much. I'm ready to see what happens tomorrow.


i can't put slim whitman as a 1/2 pick..and then say others...it seems like the 3 closers will only be separated by where they are on the track coming to the finish. nobody should be that surprised if one beats another

[Robert Fischer]

I think as a bettor , you have to look at either betting cupid to win (assuming he's over 2-1) (You don't want to hammer Cupid for 6/5)

or betting against Cupid (assuming you think he'll get burned out by the pace or have problems)


or alternatively keying Dazzling Gem and/or American Pioneer, and trying to build a scenario where those (or one of those) two figure significantly.


It's a race I'm more looking forward to watching.

[cj]

Here is the TimeformUS write up on the race:

https://timeformusblog.com/2016/04/15/saturday-stakes-preview-arkansas-derby-pace-scenario-compromises-ml-favorite-cupid/

[boys at tosconova]

I think as a bettor , you have to look at either betting cupid to win (assuming he's over 2-1) (You don't want to hammer Cupid for 6/5)

or betting against Cupid (assuming you think he'll get burned out by the pace or have problems)


or alternatively keying Dazzling Gem and/or American Pioneer, and trying to build a scenario where those (or one of those) two figure significantly.


It's a race I'm more looking forward to watching.

cupid might be in a bad spot here. 6/7/9 should all be gunning. talamo is a nut and i wouldn't be surprised to see this horse leaving really strong.but cupid can leave and get behind the 1>5 horses...seems like the whole inside will open up imo

[boys at tosconova]

i will w/o a doubt be using the 1 this race. for lack of better word, the horse had the trip from hell. "saved ground. evenly" is the comment.....are you kidding me..

the horse was really frikken wide throughout..and pressed on the whole race...this is great longshot to play that's deeply buried from many people

[Lemon Drop Husker]

i will w/o a doubt be using the 1 this race. for lack of better word, the horse had the trip from hell. "saved ground. evenly" is the comment.....are you kidding me..

the horse was really frikken wide throughout..and pressed on the whole race...this is great longshot to play that's deeply buried from many people

:1: Discreetness will be on my tickets. He had a nice win in the Smarty Jones followed up by 2 clunkers in which he has crap trips. I fully expect them to get him more involved in the race early on and not be 10th or 11th at 1st call with no hope.

In then end I see a hot pace that will compromise Cupid. I can see him not hitting the board. :6: Unbridled Outlaw is the one that I see causing the chaos as he'll fire right along with :7: Dazzling Gem, likely the other Asmussen in :9: Luna de Loco and the :12: Gettysburg has to get involved early cuz he isn't sitting and beating the class of stalkers and closers he'll see in here.

Sorry, but I'm not impressed by a big number at Sunland against nobodies, including a Collected that is no longer on the Derby trail who beat Gettysburg by 2 lengths in that race.

I like the :4: Suddenbreakingnews and the :3: Creator with :5: American Pioneer in underneath along with :1: Discreetness. I've given up on :8: Whitmore as he has had no excuse for not getting it done in his last 2. I don't see more distance as any kind of benefit to him at all. I'll fill out the bottom of tris and Supers with:2::8::10::11:

[Huddy Goodjob]

creator. SBN snd whitmore are hard to separate. all have some nice angles to dictate a play. seems outright deadly to play one and not all of them.

dazzling gem -like i said in another thread..reminds me of laoban. if he can get a place up close w/ a slow ace he could be around..although the horse doesn't strike me to have a breakout race here...i could easily see a flat even race once again.

discreetness- horse might be buried in here. last race wasn't great, but it wasn't total crap...and he only lost 3rd by 4L,,,and if you look back you see that he was a fav vs mo tom and did beat SBN. doesn't look like he's going in the right direction but he'll be 30-60-1 w/ the mentioned angles i tell you.

cutacorner- seems to outrun himself and everything else he give you is gravy. may not be able to cut graded competition. but only lost a length to SBN and draws inside. will be longer than he should be.

american pioneer - would have liked to seen goats run a lil better (have to go back and watch race)..but just because he only finished 6th in the BG didn't doesn't mean this one will run poorly. can't ignore the possible upward trend, and the horse is suppose to be a good one. should get a square price

unbridled outlaw- i can see people liking the horse. romans,..2nd race off of layoff. versatile horse that can leave and sit back and stalk....big question is if he's classy enough. you have to give the horse some chance for an itm finish

luna del loco- another one that won't get much money and can improve. leave for posiiton and pray for horse....however,..like some of the same he might not be good enough.

cupid- could get used to get the front..or the horse might just be good enough and it won't matter. regardless,..he'll be very low odds

grey sky. - again,,,horse might not be good enough but own some tactical speed....post really hurts the horse. and he'll have to overcome that as well..can;t dismiss entirely

gettysburg - play outside and prepare to lose. expensive horse might not be good enough as it seems they';re ducking or avoiding anything good,,,,,but there are a lot of class challenged horses in here..and i;m sure people will give this one more of a look than others

Videos of Dazzling Gem in the mornings have him looking like he is on GO. Rider doing all they can to hold him back from doing more than they want. He looks good on track. Think may surprise many on Saturday.

[boys at tosconova]

:1: Discreetness will be on my tickets. He had a nice win in the Smarty Jones followed up by 2 clunkers in which he has crap trips. I fully expect them to get him more involved in the race early on and not be 10th or 11th at 1st call with no hope.

In then end I see a hot pace that will compromise Cupid. I can see him not hitting the board. :6: Unbridled Outlaw is the one that I see causing the chaos as he'll fire right along with :7: Dazzling Gem, likely the other Asmussen in :9: Luna de Loco and the :12: Gettysburg has to get involved early cuz he isn't sitting and beating the class of stalkers and closers he'll see in here.

Sorry, but I'm not impressed by a big number at Sunland against nobodies, including a Collected that is no longer on the Derby trail who beat Gettysburg by 2 lengths in that race.

I like the :4: Suddenbreakingnews and the :3: Creator with :5: American Pioneer in underneath along with :1: Discreetness. I've given up on :8: Whitmore as he has had no excuse for not getting it done in his last 2. I don't see more distance as any kind of benefit to him at all. I'll fill out the bottom of tris and Supers with:2::8::10::11:


i have a hard time leaving cupid out. horse had it pretty rough in the rebel and still crushed it.

[boys at tosconova]

Videos of Dazzling Gem in the mornings have him looking like he is on GO. Rider doing all they can to hold him back from doing more than they want. He looks good on track. Think may surprise many on Saturday.

well. he could get better. and could also be a nice position. i should have him in a few trips for third....but i prefer romans horse to him. romans horse is well meant.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

i have a hard time leaving cupid out. horse had it pretty rough in the rebel and still crushed it.

I don't see a special horse.

Especially not the "Baffert" special horse.

Front end won't be kind. Cupid won't like traffic.

Sudden/Creator

[pele polo]

I just don't see the hot pace scenario that everyone else is envisioning but I've been wrong more than right in this game just like we all have. Has anyone seen Cupid's maiden win? The fact he showed that speed in the Rebel is even more impressive.

I'm totally enfatuiated with Creator- maybe to a fault after this weekend. I think this race is between him and Cupid. Whitmore, Suddenbreakingnews, and Dazzling Gem will be used underneath.

I think those that finished in the top 6 in the Rebel do so again in the Ark Derby. Five of those will run Saturday. Lone one of those not mentioned previously was Gray Sky who loomed large on the far turn last time and looked rather impressive until late. I think he'll eventually make a very fine 7f-8f horse.

Great card tomorrow. Will spend it front of the TV and computer, betting with both fists. I only bet two turn dirt races, so tomorrow's card is one of the best I'll see all year.

[bks]

For the record, I'm betting the :1: , but Cupid is going to be a deserving 4/5 against these. He doesn't need the lead to win.

What happens if Martin has him sit third or fourth just off a fast early pace? He gets first run and probably draws off. Other possibility is that he's Bodemeister (or better) and simply trounces them with a clean trip.

Of course, he could miss the break again and with the other speed in the race he could be 5-10 lengths off by the half mile pole. Then he'll need some luck.

But people are really downplaying the CA angle: they're vastly superior horses, folks. Cupid's already shown something really good. There's little reason to believe there's a better horse than him in here. I'm hoping for the troubled break, a super wide trip and a huge price to tag him late.

[Secondbest]

I like in order. Gettysburg, Cupid, Whitmore,Unbridled outlaw.
If anyone else wins it would not shocking.It looks like a weak field.
Going with the best price of those 4.

[Robert Fischer]

I like it. Taking a stance against Cupid is the way to try to score here. Your 1 is decent and has a chance to get the inside pocket trip.
:1: Discreetness will be on my tickets. He had a nice win in the Smarty Jones followed up by 2 clunkers in which he has crap trips. I fully expect them to get him more involved in the race early on and not be 10th or 11th at 1st call with no hope.

In then end I see a hot pace that will compromise Cupid. I can see him not hitting the board. :6: Unbridled Outlaw is the one that I see causing the chaos as he'll fire right along with :7: Dazzling Gem, likely the other Asmussen in :9: Luna de Loco and the :12: Gettysburg has to get involved early cuz he isn't sitting and beating the class of stalkers and closers he'll see in here.

Sorry, but I'm not impressed by a big number at Sunland against nobodies, including a Collected that is no longer on the Derby trail who beat Gettysburg by 2 lengths in that race.

I like the :4: Suddenbreakingnews and the :3: Creator with :5: American Pioneer in underneath along with :1: Discreetness. I've given up on :8: Whitmore as he has had no excuse for not getting it done in his last 2. I don't see more distance as any kind of benefit to him at all. I'll fill out the bottom of tris and Supers with:2::8::10::11:

[raybo]

Posted yesterday on my little forum:

Black Box picks:

First, for those who think the race will NOT be an early pace battle, compromising the likely front runners. Top 5 selections using the "PFV" (Power Form Velocities) rankings method, in ranked order:

#--- Horse --- Morning Line

10 - Cupid --------- 2/1
8 - Whitmore ------ 9/2
12 - Gettysburg --- 8/1
3 - Creator -------- 10/1
7 - Dazzling Gem - 12/1

Second, for those who think there will be an early pace battle, compromising the likely front runners. Top 5 selections using the "IV" (Initial Velocities) rankings method, in ranked order:

#------ Horse --------- Morning Line

5 - American Pioneer ----- 8/1
8 - Whitmore -------------- 9/2
4 - SuddenBreakingNews - 5/1
6 - Unbridled Outlaw ------ 10/1
12 - Gettysburg ------------ 6/1

And finally, for those who prefer more traditional handicapping methods, without considering the early pace possibilities (because we can never know how the race will really be run until after the race). Top 5 selections using the future weighted factors rankings method, in ranked order:

#--- Horse --- Morning Line

10 - CUPID --------- 2/1
8 - WHITMORE ----- 9/2
3 - CREATOR ------- 10/1
12 - GETTYSBURG -- 6/1
1- DISCREETNESS - 20/1

Good luck!!

[Huddy Goodjob]

I think Getttysburg will be added speed for the Kent. Derby Think he takes this one with move forward and duals Dazzling Gem for the win. Looking at his Bris Speed...I think he is on a progressive move forward in this. 100 in last makes him dangerous as top speed.

[boys at tosconova]

i like the 1, but to win is a stretch...would be nice # triple if he finishes 2nd to cupid..even if the horse finishes 3rd to him the exotics still should be high.

i have a hard time not putting cupid on top, let alone leaving off altogether

[boys at tosconova]

both the 1 and 6 will be keyed for 2nd & 3rd to cupid on my triple tickets...not going to call an all to finish each bet....but i have to go pretty deep.

[boys at tosconova]

i got discreet's races confused..

next time i do this..plz call me out...lol

didn't race as well as i would of liked after the SW,,,,but still using him though

[pele polo]

i really liked Cupid going into it before the post draw but I wonder, with his inability to break well, how much this 10 hole could adversely effect him.

[SecretAgentMan]

Arkansas derby starts so late, 7:18 pm, that's way late. Won't be in front of a TV to watch it, will have to rely on you guys to break down how the race went.

[Tom]

:4: Suddenbreakingnews - that 93 Beyer two back beats his best of last year, and he should be helped by a fast pace today. He can move ahead from that.

:3: Creator - forging horse since he got onto fast dirt, he has run 67-71-80-90 Beyers. He can keep moving ahead in small jumps.

:12: Gettysburg - Made an 18 point move in his second try at a route, and at 9.0 furlongs, then, as 3yos will do, regressed slightly before pairing up last time, again at 9.0 furlongs. Ready to move ahead again, but the outside might nullify some of that until his next race.....odds will be key. One of the top three final fraction horses in here.

:10: Cupid - Forging every race, top Beyer in the race, but his final fraction is
low compared to others

:7: Dazzling Gem - Light on Beyers, but looks primed to make a move after pairing up 83's. He has a 9.0 furlong race under his belt, and if he improves his final fraction today, he can be right in this at a price.

[Robert Fischer]

let me show u guys how I do this shit...


:10: Cupid = potentially a monster. Will take heavy money due to that potential. Outside post. He's going to try to wire the field. Value in the race is that he crashes and burns, but hard to beat... Reluctantly have to Key today, hope he fails.

:8: Whitmore = looks like a legit Kentucky Derby runner up type. He's a Key today if you play the single race exotics.

:5: American Pioneer = The other really good non favorite who doesn't have any outside post and isn't going to melt down in a fast pace. The other Key today.

If there isn't a pace meltdown that punishes outside speed, then Cupid wins and the race doesn't pay.
I'll construct my tix for the scenario that pays. TOSS 9,11,12 completely

Key 8,5,10

The other horses are all good and/or can trip into an inside-closer-friendly-bias.
The 2 Cutacorner doesn't look good enough to run 1st or 2nd.

put it into the .10cent super machine and we get:


8,5,10
8,5,10
8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1,10
8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1,10 ($25.20)

8,5,10
8,7,6,5,4,3,1,10
8,5,10
8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1,10 ($21.60)

8,5,10
8,7,6,5,4,3,1,10
8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1,10
8,5,10 ($21.60)

8,7,6,5,4,3,1,10
8,5,10
8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1,10
8,5,10 ($21.60)

8,7,6,5,4,3,1,10
8,5,10
8,5,10
8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1,10 ($21.60)

8,7,6,5,4,3,1,10
8,7,6,5,4,3,1,10
8,5,10
8,5,10 ($18.00)

Total $129.60

[SecretAgentMan]

I wonder if Cupid will try to rate from the outside post #10?

[Tee]

Let's see how :12: Gettysburg breaks from the gate.

[Robert Fischer]

I wonder if Cupid will try to rate from the outside post #10?

Baffert's style seems to be wire-to-wire in these situations.

Martin Garcia is smart, and if the horse breaks poorly or someone else goes bananas for the lead, he'll adjust, and get as good a trip as possible from that point on.

My guess is that rating is not the preferred game plan.

[reckless]

It looks like a two-hose race, Gettysburg and Cupid. I making a big win bet on Gettysburg and hope to get 5-2, 3-1 or so...

There are 2-3 longer shots capable of having a say but they seem to be a notch below. Maybe the outside post positions of my two top choices will give the others a fighting chance but I am not playing it that way.

I have Gettysburg on top of Cupid a few more times, and will also reverse it.

Gettysburg is one of just three horses that has run 1 1-8 miles to date, a big MSW win and a sharp 2nd in Arizona. I think these days with horses running sparingly this is a huge advantage. Johnny V.'s patient style is also ideal considering they are breaking from post 12 and I assume they need to go a bit to gain some position early.

Cupid is the legit favorite and I can't see him worse than 2nd. The exacta isn't expected to be much, of course, but better to take a shorter price than a long face, I always say.

The others that I will play in saver exactas and in my tri's include: Gray Sky, post 11, Unbridled Outlaw, post 6, and Whitmore, post 8.

Good luck everyone!

[Aerocraft67]

:10:
:10: / :3:
:10: / :3: / :11: , :12:

I like the favorite, I don't like front runners with him, and the :3: seems a better value closer than :4:. Rounding out the tri with a longshot :11: and an overlookedish runner :12:.

[CincyHorseplayer]

The rail has been good all day and defeating some solid closers making moves out in the middle of the track.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I think Cuoid is sitting on another big race. His finish 2 back was even better than the last. But 3/5? Whitmore IMO will be in front of the closers and get first run and 6-1. I'll take it. Play exactas with Cupid and Creator, whom I think will get a nice inside trip.

[PaceMasterT]

:7:,:10: / :7:,:10: / :3:,:4:,:8:,:12: / :3:,:4:,:8:,:12:

small super

[reckless]

I must be missing something as Gettysburg is 14-1 with 4 minutes to post. This looks like dead on the board and not an overlay to me.

[Grits]

YES!!!!!!!!! STEVE AND WINSTAR!!!!!! Rolled right by 'em.

[Robert Fischer]

Great ride by Joe Talamo there.

Turrible ride by Rafael Bejarano.


pretty good race, went kind of how we thought it would.

This helps Cupid's value. Will have to watch the replay. Gettysburg seemed to run very well.

I lost $130 here with the triple key.

Dime Super should pay big.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:1: Discreetness will be on my tickets. He had a nice win in the Smarty Jones followed up by 2 clunkers in which he has crap trips. I fully expect them to get him more involved in the race early on and not be 10th or 11th at 1st call with no hope.

In then end I see a hot pace that will compromise Cupid. I can see him not hitting the board. :6: Unbridled Outlaw is the one that I see causing the chaos as he'll fire right along with :7: Dazzling Gem, likely the other Asmussen in :9: Luna de Loco and the :12: Gettysburg has to get involved early cuz he isn't sitting and beating the class of stalkers and closers he'll see in here.

Sorry, but I'm not impressed by a big number at Sunland against nobodies, including a Collected that is no longer on the Derby trail who beat Gettysburg by 2 lengths in that race.

I like the :4: Suddenbreakingnews and the :3: Creator with :5: American Pioneer in underneath along with :1: Discreetness. I've given up on :8: Whitmore as he has had no excuse for not getting it done in his last 2. I don't see more distance as any kind of benefit to him at all. I'll fill out the bottom of tris and Supers with:2::8::10::11:

'Dat how we do! :jump:

[burnsy]

So much for Cupid.......and a few others. I needed that :7: like a few others mentioned. It was a "meltdown" scenario from the git go. Plus, most of these horses are light on experience winning compared to others.......

[Robert Fischer]

'Dat how we do! :jump:
Good call :ThmbUp:


Great ride by Joe Talamo there.

Turrible ride by Rafael Bejarano.


pretty good race, went kind of how we thought it would.

This helps Cupid's value. Will have to watch the replay. Gettysburg seemed to run very well.

I lost $130 here with the triple key.

Dime Super should pay big.


Weak Tri and Super payouts to get the 4/5 cupid off the board

[TexasDolly]

:1: Discreetness will be on my tickets. He had a nice win in the Smarty Jones followed up by 2 clunkers in which he has crap trips. I fully expect them to get him more involved in the race early on and not be 10th or 11th at 1st call with no hope.

In then end I see a hot pace that will compromise Cupid. I can see him not hitting the board. :6: Unbridled Outlaw is the one that I see causing the chaos as he'll fire right along with :7: Dazzling Gem, likely the other Asmussen in :9: Luna de Loco and the :12: Gettysburg has to get involved early cuz he isn't sitting and beating the class of stalkers and closers he'll see in here.

Sorry, but I'm not impressed by a big number at Sunland against nobodies, including a Collected that is no longer on the Derby trail who beat Gettysburg by 2 lengths in that race.

I like the :4: Suddenbreakingnews and the :3: Creator with :5: American Pioneer in underneath along with :1: Discreetness. I've given up on :8: Whitmore as he has had no excuse for not getting it done in his last 2. I don't see more distance as any kind of benefit to him at all. I'll fill out the bottom of tris and Supers with:2::8::10::11:

Your top two got it done. Nice call Lemon Drop. I hope that translated into
the exacta and tri as well.
TD

[Tom]

TFUS top two late paced horses in a fast early pace race.
Top two third fractions of the second back for each.

Now, I do believe I hear a Cowboy Rib Eye Steak calling my name.....

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Your top two got it done. Nice call Lemon Drop

Thanks.

Feels good to see a race unfold almost exactly as to how you foresee it.

As they say, blind squirrel and all...:)

[Robert Fischer]

:4: Suddenbreakingnews - that 93 Beyer two back beats his best of last year, and he should be helped by a fast pace today. He can move ahead from that.

:3: Creator - forging horse since he got onto fast dirt, he has run 67-71-80-90 Beyers. He can keep moving ahead in small jumps.

:12: Gettysburg - Made an 18 point move in his second try at a route, and at 9.0 furlongs, then, as 3yos will do, regressed slightly before pairing up last time, again at 9.0 furlongs. Ready to move ahead again, but the outside might nullify some of that until his next race.....odds will be key. One of the top three final fraction horses in here.

:10: Cupid - Forging every race, top Beyer in the race, but his final fraction is
low compared to others

:7: Dazzling Gem - Light on Beyers, but looks primed to make a move after pairing up 83's. He has a 9.0 furlong race under his belt, and if he improves his final fraction today, he can be right in this at a price.

Great capping. :ThmbUp:

your top 2 finished 1-2.

your 7 finished out the super

your 12 and 10 ran big into the teeth of the pace.

[SecretAgentMan]

Asmussen now has 2 derby horses. Which will be lower odds, Gun Runner or Creator? Creator is a deep closer, GR a stalker, hmm!

SBN came flying for 2nd, I just don't think he's good enough to win the KD, but he will definitely be there.

Cupid chased & got tired, Baffert now 2 for 7 in the Ark derby.

[Grits]

TFUS top two late paced horses in a fast early pace race.
Top two third fractions of the second back for each.

Now, I do believe I hear a Cowboy Rib Eye Steak calling my name.....

INDEED!! Tom, I'll be in love with condensed figures 'til I die!!! ;)

What a sweet exacta.... Today was a good day.

Now, I need to steam some shrimp and fix a salad. :jump:

[f2tornado]

Race final 3/8th in a sluggish 39.43. I'm guessing none of these will be wearing roses in a few weeks.

[pele polo]

I'm totally enfatuiated with Creator- maybe to a fault after this weekend. I think this race is between him and Cupid. Whitmore, Suddenbreakingnews, and Dazzling Gem will be used underneath.

Well, We hit but man what could have been. I used Cupid way too much in the top spot. Single Tri and Super. Could have had a second super but didn't have the four in the second spot. Could have had another trip but didn't have whitmore in the third.

You plan all week and feel you have a strategy but even after 20 years discipline and structure still means so much in this game

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Race final 3/8th in a sluggish 39.43. I'm guessing none of these will be wearing roses in a few weeks.

I think it depends on who gets to the gate.

We get a pace scenario like today or the SA Derby, anything could happen.

[Exotic1]

:4: Suddenbreakingnews - that 93 Beyer two back beats his best of last year, and he should be helped by a fast pace today. He can move ahead from that.

:3: Creator - forging horse since he got onto fast dirt, he has run 67-71-80-90 Beyers. He can keep moving ahead in small jumps.

:12: Gettysburg - Made an 18 point move in his second try at a route, and at 9.0 furlongs, then, as 3yos will do, regressed slightly before pairing up last time, again at 9.0 furlongs. Ready to move ahead again, but the outside might nullify some of that until his next race.....odds will be key. One of the top three final fraction horses in here.

:10: Cupid - Forging every race, top Beyer in the race, but his final fraction is
low compared to others

:7: Dazzling Gem - Light on Beyers, but looks primed to make a move after pairing up 83's. He has a 9.0 furlong race under his belt, and if he improves his final fraction today, he can be right in this at a price.

Excellent !!!

Is that "forging" or "marching" in sheet parlance? Just kidding.


Good call, made a lot of sense.

[CincyHorseplayer]

:1: Discreetness will be on my tickets. He had a nice win in the Smarty Jones followed up by 2 clunkers in which he has crap trips. I fully expect them to get him more involved in the race early on and not be 10th or 11th at 1st call with no hope.

In then end I see a hot pace that will compromise Cupid. I can see him not hitting the board. :6: Unbridled Outlaw is the one that I see causing the chaos as he'll fire right along with :7: Dazzling Gem, likely the other Asmussen in :9: Luna de Loco and the :12: Gettysburg has to get involved early cuz he isn't sitting and beating the class of stalkers and closers he'll see in here.

Sorry, but I'm not impressed by a big number at Sunland against nobodies, including a Collected that is no longer on the Derby trail who beat Gettysburg by 2 lengths in that race.

I like the :4: Suddenbreakingnews and the :3: Creator with :5: American Pioneer in underneath along with :1: Discreetness. I've given up on :8: Whitmore as he has had no excuse for not getting it done in his last 2. I don't see more distance as any kind of benefit to him at all. I'll fill out the bottom of tris and Supers with:2::8::10::11:

Good call Husker! Gotta love that 11-1 on top! :ThmbUp:

[tanner12oz]

Yawn...i have sudden and Whitmore in futures. Glad there in the gate in 3 weeks but nothing impressed me here.

[depalma113]

Race final 3/8th in a sluggish 39.43. I'm guessing none of these will be wearing roses in a few weeks.

The top three all ran sub :38 final quarters.

[raybo]

Thanks.

Feels good to see a race unfold almost exactly as to how you foresee it.

As they say, blind squirrel and all...:)

LOL - for a blind squirrel, you seem to outperform the probabilities frequently!

Great call!!!! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Tom]

Gotta watch the replay tomorrow, but the :7: caught my eye with a nice middle move before flattening out in the stretch. He might be a monster at a flat mile.

[f2tornado]

The top three all ran sub :38 final quarters.

They did. That does help the overall impression but it was still the 5th slowest Ark Derby since 1983.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

They did. That does help the overall impression but it was still the 5th slowest Ark Derby since 1983.

A lot of these preps have fallen into the slowest since a number of years category.

I absolutely hate calling out a 3YO crop this early, but this one has a lot of questions to answer thus far.

10F looks like a massive test for this bunch.