Lemon Drop Husker
04-15-2016, 01:41 AM
Happy Tax Day!
And at Keeneland they roll in Tax Day with a really solid and competitive G1 Turf race.
:1: Are You Kidding Me: Roger Attfield rarely brings in nags from up north, and this guy is training lights out entering this race. A mile may not be his best distance, and AW may well be his best surface, but he can't be dismissed as not having a shot in here. A likely exotics play only, I wouldn't be completely shocked if he crossed the line first.
:2: Miss Temple City: Are the connections inspired by Tepin's BC Mile Turf victory? Maybe. However, it is hard to look past this fillies effort in a Group 1 race at Ascot in which she made good accord of herself at 50/1 in a race against eventual BC Turf champion Found. And she hasn't ran too shabbily since then. 8 for 9 on the board in her turf races (lone miss was her 4th at Ascot), she can't be dismissed as a serious threat in here. Throw in a 12/1 ML, and she looks even more appetizing. Contender.
:3: Heart to Heart: This 5YO is in the absolute prime of his career having won 3 straight Graded Stakes races. All on the front end. Leparoux and Lynch are firing on all cyclinders with this guy, and on paper he looks to be the one to beat.
:4: Tourist: His last two seasons have been geared around the BC Turf Mile, and unfortunately for the connections, he simply hasn't gotten a good trip either time around. He comes in off a layoff since the BC Turf Mile, and I usually fade horses their next out after a BC race. However, this one is in a very nice weekly training pattern that I like, and Bill Mott and company are firing him right back into a G1 in his comeback race. The mile is undoubtedly his distance, and since they switched him to the turf 8 races ago, his racing career has taken off. Major contender.
:5: Dac: Simply outclassed. 30/1 ML is spot on, and would be a complete shock to see him in the winner's circle. Would actually be quite surprising to see him hit the board.
:6: Conquest Typhoon: Fresh off of last year's Derby Trail, this 4YO was almost always bound for the turf. He is taking a major step up in class in this one, and it does seem a bit eager that he is placed in here. He is 3 for 5 at this distance, but two of those wins were against 3YO only fields and his last against OC $62.5K company. Really tough to see a win, but can clunk up in exotics.
:7: Shining Copper: The BC Turf rabbit is back! Rolling out to an early 20 length lead in that race, he quickly folded up shop to finish 21 lengths back of the eventual winner. In his first race back, he did make a very good account of himself in the G1 Gulfstream Park Handicap finishing a tough beaten 2nd by a neck as he led throughout. The M.O. is pretty apparent, as he'll look to forge to the lead and try to wall everybody off. He'll have company upfront though with the :4: and :3:, so his potential of stealing this one just doesn't look likely. His ceiling looks to be exotics bound at best.
:8: Itsaknockout: The most interesting entry in the race takes to the turf for the first time in a G1 event. Obviously the connections have a lot of faith in this guy throwing him in here. I guess I'm a bit confused in the move as I didn't exactly see what was so incredibly horrid about his last two races in Graded Stakes dirt races to make this move? Then again, he does have some solid turf breeding, so likely they are taking their shot with this lightly raced 4YO to see if turf is his thing. At least he enters off of a bullet work, but the 6/1 ML just seems way out of whack amid a bunch of Graded Stakes turf veterans.
:9: Reload: January two years ago, this 7YO made his turf debut. That was after a rather disappointing 15 race career that saw only 3 wins. As it has played out, the turf has completely rejuvenated this guys career as he is 5 for 8 on the green stuff including a couple of Graded Stakes victories. He has also found his niche as a turf miler nabbing 3 wins in 5 tries. I love how he is training coming in here, and Shug and Castellano are easy connections to like. Major contender.
How I See It: :4: Tourist and :7: Shining Copper look to be up front early with :3: Heart to Heart not too far behind, if behind at all. :7: should fall out quickly when the real racing begins, and I'll look for the :3: Heart to Heart to flatten as he just isn't accustomed to not being on the lead much less not having a comfortable lead at the top of the stretch. I see the :4: Tourist surviving that battle and then looking to wall off :2:Miss Temple City and :9: Reload as they launch their late bids to pull the upset.
WP: :9:
EX: :9:/:2::4: and :2:/:4::9:
TRI: :2::9:/:2::4::9:/:1::2::4::6::9:
And at Keeneland they roll in Tax Day with a really solid and competitive G1 Turf race.
:1: Are You Kidding Me: Roger Attfield rarely brings in nags from up north, and this guy is training lights out entering this race. A mile may not be his best distance, and AW may well be his best surface, but he can't be dismissed as not having a shot in here. A likely exotics play only, I wouldn't be completely shocked if he crossed the line first.
:2: Miss Temple City: Are the connections inspired by Tepin's BC Mile Turf victory? Maybe. However, it is hard to look past this fillies effort in a Group 1 race at Ascot in which she made good accord of herself at 50/1 in a race against eventual BC Turf champion Found. And she hasn't ran too shabbily since then. 8 for 9 on the board in her turf races (lone miss was her 4th at Ascot), she can't be dismissed as a serious threat in here. Throw in a 12/1 ML, and she looks even more appetizing. Contender.
:3: Heart to Heart: This 5YO is in the absolute prime of his career having won 3 straight Graded Stakes races. All on the front end. Leparoux and Lynch are firing on all cyclinders with this guy, and on paper he looks to be the one to beat.
:4: Tourist: His last two seasons have been geared around the BC Turf Mile, and unfortunately for the connections, he simply hasn't gotten a good trip either time around. He comes in off a layoff since the BC Turf Mile, and I usually fade horses their next out after a BC race. However, this one is in a very nice weekly training pattern that I like, and Bill Mott and company are firing him right back into a G1 in his comeback race. The mile is undoubtedly his distance, and since they switched him to the turf 8 races ago, his racing career has taken off. Major contender.
:5: Dac: Simply outclassed. 30/1 ML is spot on, and would be a complete shock to see him in the winner's circle. Would actually be quite surprising to see him hit the board.
:6: Conquest Typhoon: Fresh off of last year's Derby Trail, this 4YO was almost always bound for the turf. He is taking a major step up in class in this one, and it does seem a bit eager that he is placed in here. He is 3 for 5 at this distance, but two of those wins were against 3YO only fields and his last against OC $62.5K company. Really tough to see a win, but can clunk up in exotics.
:7: Shining Copper: The BC Turf rabbit is back! Rolling out to an early 20 length lead in that race, he quickly folded up shop to finish 21 lengths back of the eventual winner. In his first race back, he did make a very good account of himself in the G1 Gulfstream Park Handicap finishing a tough beaten 2nd by a neck as he led throughout. The M.O. is pretty apparent, as he'll look to forge to the lead and try to wall everybody off. He'll have company upfront though with the :4: and :3:, so his potential of stealing this one just doesn't look likely. His ceiling looks to be exotics bound at best.
:8: Itsaknockout: The most interesting entry in the race takes to the turf for the first time in a G1 event. Obviously the connections have a lot of faith in this guy throwing him in here. I guess I'm a bit confused in the move as I didn't exactly see what was so incredibly horrid about his last two races in Graded Stakes dirt races to make this move? Then again, he does have some solid turf breeding, so likely they are taking their shot with this lightly raced 4YO to see if turf is his thing. At least he enters off of a bullet work, but the 6/1 ML just seems way out of whack amid a bunch of Graded Stakes turf veterans.
:9: Reload: January two years ago, this 7YO made his turf debut. That was after a rather disappointing 15 race career that saw only 3 wins. As it has played out, the turf has completely rejuvenated this guys career as he is 5 for 8 on the green stuff including a couple of Graded Stakes victories. He has also found his niche as a turf miler nabbing 3 wins in 5 tries. I love how he is training coming in here, and Shug and Castellano are easy connections to like. Major contender.
How I See It: :4: Tourist and :7: Shining Copper look to be up front early with :3: Heart to Heart not too far behind, if behind at all. :7: should fall out quickly when the real racing begins, and I'll look for the :3: Heart to Heart to flatten as he just isn't accustomed to not being on the lead much less not having a comfortable lead at the top of the stretch. I see the :4: Tourist surviving that battle and then looking to wall off :2:Miss Temple City and :9: Reload as they launch their late bids to pull the upset.
WP: :9:
EX: :9:/:2::4: and :2:/:4::9:
TRI: :2::9:/:2::4::9:/:1::2::4::6::9: