2016 KY Derby my top 5

[OptionalClaimer]

Here are my top 5 contenders

1-Exaggerator his speed numbers as a 3-YO 102-101-101 very consistent. His Santa Anita Derby move to me was exceptional now I know some might say the wet track aided him. 2/4 wins came over wet surfaces. But this guy still hasn't shown us his best race yet.

2-Tom's Ready he's had 2 fast track starts at CD a win and a second. Both his races at CD produced a 88 speed rating which I understand is way beneath the top guys.
His 3-YO speed numbers have been 99-81-91


3-My Man Sam he broke from post 14 in the Blue Grass was 8 wide turning for home & flying. He's lightly raced (4) loads of upside. His 3-YO speed numbers 92-100-97

4-Mo Tom in the La Derby & Risen Star both races he had to check badly. He does have a win at
CD on a fast track 89 speed figure. 3-YO speed figures 98-95-94

5-Gun Runner has a win at CD. His 3-YO speed ratings 104-97
His only loss on a sloppy track.

On the Bubble Horses:
1-Brody's Cause
2-Mor Spirit
3-Destin


Here are my toss outs, which mean won't use them 1st,2nd or 3rd

1-Mohaymen
2-Nyquist
3-Outwork

[SecretAgentMan]

I agree with your toss outs, don't like them at all! Exxagerator is confusing to me.

[OptionalClaimer]

Exaggerator I feel has been used maybe 45-60% his SA Derby move was made with such ease. He won with plenty left in the tank



I agree with your toss outs, don't like them at all! Exxagerator is confusing to me.

[SecretAgentMan]

Exaggerator I feel has been used maybe 45-60% his SA Derby move was made with such ease. He won with plenty left in the tank



He reminds me of Charismatic, where he makes the big move at the top of the stretch & blows by everyone & receives a 108 beyer.

I might put Exxagerator on top of a few Exactas & Tris just in case.

[f2tornado]

Nice list. I'm not sold on Mo Tom otherwise will be using same horses from your top 5. I'm not ready to dump Mohaymen just yet. I still think he can pull a Go For Gin but will tread lightly there. I cannot totally toss Nyquist but perhaps will leave underneath. Those Buckpassers that post fast final 3/8th times have a huge exacta impact value albeit a small sample size.

[señorclipclop]

Nice list. I'm not sold on Mo Tom otherwise will be using same horses from your top 5. I'm not ready to dump Mohaymen just yet. I still think he can pull a Go For Gin but will tread lightly there. I cannot totally toss Nyquist but perhaps will leave underneath. Those Buckpassers that post fast final 3/8th times have a huge exacta impact value albeit a small sample size.

How far back in the pedigree do you go? Any specific spots? Sire line or BMS line?

[PowerUpPaynter]

my top 5 as of now for horse i will play in my tri/ supers

1. Nyquist - im not gonna be foolish here, its starting to be obvious.. fn chalk again
2. My Man Sam
3. Mo Tom
4. Exaggerator
5. Fellowship

still like Mor Spirit, Brodys Cause, and Moheyman in some way. interested to see Whitmore, Swipe and Cupid this week

[tanner12oz]

my top 5 as of now for horse i will play in my tri/ supers

1. Nyquist - im not gonna be foolish here, its starting to be obvious.. fn chalk again
2. My Man Sam
3. Mo Tom
4. Exaggerator
5. Fellowship

still like Mor Spirit, Brodys Cause, and Moheyman in some way. interested to see Whitmore, Swipe and Cupid this week

I thought swipe was going to Lexington? Trainer didn't even seem to confident in that and tgat was only like 2 days ago

[PowerUpPaynter]

I thought swipe was going to Lexington? Trainer didn't even seem to confident in that and tgat was only like 2 days ago


yes lexington.. if he wins that will point to derby if he has enough pts. he was close to Nyquist a few times. Exaggerator sorta ran with him too and smoked the santa anita field looking like a world beater.

[SecretAgentMan]

yes lexington.. if he wins that will point to derby if he has enough pts. he was close to Nyquist a few times. Exaggerator sorta ran with him too and smoked the santa anita field looking like a world beater.



If Swipe wins the Lexington, he will be in 25th place.

[PowerUpPaynter]

If Swipe wins the Lexington, he will be in 25th place.


5 defections is possible. it was a stupid move by the owners.

[tanner12oz]

5 defections is possible. it was a stupid move by the owners.

the stars simply didn't align..he was my derby horse going into the year

[bks]

If this is any indication of the general feeling about the Derby, I'm very excited to bet it.

The top 3 horses are from CA. They are:

1. Cupid

2. Nyquist (he and cupid tower over the others)

3. Exaggerator (confusing, but talented)


I'd take Danzing Candy (4) over almost all others, too. Fifth choice for me would be Whitmore or My Man Sam (5).

[boys at tosconova]

Here are my top 5 contenders

1-Exaggerator his speed numbers as a 3-YO 102-101-101 very consistent. His Santa Anita Derby move to me was exceptional now I know some might say the wet track aided him. 2/4 wins came over wet surfaces. But this guy still hasn't shown us his best race yet.

2-Tom's Ready he's had 2 fast track starts at CD a win and a second. Both his races at CD produced a 88 speed rating which I understand is way beneath the top guys.
His 3-YO speed numbers have been 99-81-91


3-My Man Sam he broke from post 14 in the Blue Grass was 8 wide turning for home & flying. He's lightly raced (4) loads of upside. His 3-YO speed numbers 92-100-97

4-Mo Tom in the La Derby & Risen Star both races he had to check badly. He does have a win at
CD on a fast track 89 speed figure. 3-YO speed figures 98-95-94

5-Gun Runner has a win at CD. His 3-YO speed ratings 104-97
His only loss on a sloppy track.

On the Bubble Horses:
1-Brody's Cause
2-Mor Spirit
3-Destin


Here are my toss outs, which mean won't use them 1st,2nd or 3rd

1-Mohaymen
2-Nyquist
3-Outwork

if any of your top 5 make the exacta and triple you should be rewarded w/ many greenbacks

[f2tornado]

How far back in the pedigree do you go? Any specific spots? Sire line or BMS line?

No real limit. I look at the sire line more than the actual sire. The two most dominant since 1970 are Raise A Native and Bold Ruler, the latter having recently broken a long cold snap. You can see how dominant they have been here (http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/derby_dosage.htm). There is no strong pattern for dam sire although there have been more recent Northern Dancer than anything else. You sometimes have to dig deep on the female side to find the goods. The more Buckpasser, War Admiral, Blue Larkspur, Mahmoud, among others, the better. There does seem to be some performance correlation to certain female families (1, 17b, 23b) to note a few.

[Robert Fischer]

Very tough year

1.- Nyquist = my only 'legit' top 5 horse. Although he looks like he will be a big underlay -Have to respect.


bubble horses
2. Exaggerator - He looks like a hard hitter. Is he talented enough? Does he have to be in this year's field?
3. Mohaymen - Trip handicapping says that he should be a value. Gut feeling questions whether his ceiling has been reached and his form is in a decline.
4. Cupid - Could be any type. Baffert speed.
5. My Man Sam - Chad Brown trains him and he showed some life.

[boys at tosconova]

outside of the 1/20 hole how can you leave nyquist and exxag off any 5 horse ticket.

plenty of decent price horses you can use in the last 3 spots to make a potential huge number..regardless of odds..i have to say like sam and brody a little as well

[Robert Fischer]

6.Whitmore - Lacks some brilliance, but can continuously improve position through a field over a distance.

[SecretAgentMan]

6.Whitmore - Lacks some brilliance, but can continuously improve position through a field over a distance.



This is the horse that peaks my interest in the Ark derby.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Very tough year

1.- Nyquist = my only 'legit' top 5 horse. Although he looks like he will be a big underlay -Have to respect.


bubble horses
2. Exaggerator - He looks like a hard hitter. Is he talented enough? Does he have to be in this year's field?
3. Mohaymen - Trip handicapping says that he should be a value. Gut feeling questions whether his ceiling has been reached and his form is in a decline.
4. Cupid - Could be any type. Baffert speed.
5. My Man Sam - Chad Brown trains him and he showed some life.

Robert we must be horseplaying psychic brothers! While I am only using Nyquist as a saver my top 3 horses are Mohaymen, Exaggerator, and My Man Sam.

Lot of bubble types to deal with right now.

[bks]

This is the horse that peaks my interest in the Ark derby.

But if he didn't go by Cupid in the Rebel with the trip Cupid had, when will he ever go by him?

[SecretAgentMan]

But if he didn't go by Cupid in the Rebel with the trip Cupid had, when will he ever go by him?



He just peaks my interest, not saying he will win, but want to see how he runs.

[delsully]

But if he didn't go by Cupid in the Rebel with the trip Cupid had, when will he ever go by him?

What was wrong with Cupid's trip? Whitmore covered way more ground and floated some at the top of the stretch.

[Robert Fischer]

But if he didn't go by Cupid in the Rebel with the trip Cupid had, when will he ever go by him?

Hey, I'd happily take Cupid winning the Kentucky Derby at 5-1 and Whitmore running 2nd in the Kentucky Derby at 30-1.

no need for him to ever go by


I can't see the future... Cupid is dangerous and has some flaws. He could win the KD, he could jump over the rail in the Arkansas Derby... or anything in between.
Whitmore looks tough, but soundness and consistency is never guaranteed. He would probably need some help in a big race like the Kentucky Derby to actually win.

[bks]

What was wrong with Cupid's trip? Whitmore covered way more ground and floated some at the top of the stretch.

Cupid missed the break and rushed up on a 22.4 first quarter, and entering the stretch he took a left turn that caused Garcia to grab hold of him, and which made him take two bad strides.

Whitmore did cover more ground, but I didn't see major trouble outside of that. I think he's a really good horse btw.

[delsully]

Cupid missed the break and rushed up on a 22.4 first quarter, and entering the stretch he took a left turn that caused Garcia to grab hold of him, and which made him take two bad strides.

Whitmore did cover more ground, but I didn't see major trouble outside of that. I think he's a really good horse btw.

True, he did have an eventful start but he did get to sleep on the lead after a 1/2 mile. I expect him to be sharp tomorrow and think he'll win. Ultimately, I think he has a better chance to win the derby than Whitmore.

[lamboguy]

a tie

GUNRUNNER---MO TOM

[arw629]

Here are my top 5 contenders

1-Exaggerator his speed numbers as a 3-YO 102-101-101 very consistent. His Santa Anita Derby move to me was exceptional now I know some might say the wet track aided him. 2/4 wins came over wet surfaces. But this guy still hasn't shown us his best race yet.

2-Tom's Ready he's had 2 fast track starts at CD a win and a second. Both his races at CD produced a 88 speed rating which I understand is way beneath the top guys.
His 3-YO speed numbers have been 99-81-91


3-My Man Sam he broke from post 14 in the Blue Grass was 8 wide turning for home & flying. He's lightly raced (4) loads of upside. His 3-YO speed numbers 92-100-97

4-Mo Tom in the La Derby & Risen Star both races he had to check badly. He does have a win at
CD on a fast track 89 speed figure. 3-YO speed figures 98-95-94

5-Gun Runner has a win at CD. His 3-YO speed ratings 104-97
His only loss on a sloppy track.

On the Bubble Horses:
1-Brody's Cause
2-Mor Spirit
3-Destin


Here are my toss outs, which mean won't use them 1st,2nd or 3rd

1-Mohaymen
2-Nyquist
3-Outwork

If there ever was a dressed up win it was exaggerator 's SA Derby

[davew]

I am going to wait until post positions drawn and probable track condition before making a top 5.

[Secondbest]

:ThmbUp: I am going to wait until post positions drawn and probable track condition before making a top 5.

[SecretAgentMan]

I am going to wait until post positions drawn and probable track condition before making a top 5.



I guess this is the best thing to do. I mean, if my favorite horse Gun Runner gets post #1 or #19 or #20, I won't be happy. I'm looking for GR to get post #3 to #13

[Dahoss2002]

My ebx tbx if they all make it in. Florida, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Cali derby winners. token win bet on all too. key these in vertical and horizontals

[OptionalClaimer]

"Dressed up" not sure what race you were watching. He IS a top 5 3-YO


If there ever was a dressed up win it was exaggerator 's SA Derby

[Psychotic Parakeet]

I agree with Exaggerator being a top choice. My selection would be him with Nyquist and Brody's Cause rounding out the trifecta.

[cj]

"Dressed up" not sure what race you were watching. He IS a top 5 3-YO

I think he is a good horse, but he had a dream trip in the last and both two turn wins are on off tracks. Definitely some questions. What price would you take on him?

[pele polo]

I think he is a good horse, but he had a dream trip in the last and both two turn wins are on off tracks. Definitely some questions. What price would you take on him?

He caught the perfect scenario and is a proven wet track horse

[arw629]

"Dressed up" not sure what race you were watching. He IS a top 5 3-YO

I am a big fan of Exaggerator ...i bet him big at Keeneland when Brody's Cause mowed him down last fall in the final furlong....i used him in my pick and pray a few weeks later in the BC juvenile, and I've rooted for him every race since then. ..I told a friend a while back that he was a nice price in the futures bc he is always in thr mix, always facing the best horses in the best races, and is due for a big win and maybe the derby would be it ...truth is he got a perfect setup in the santa anita derby and no one else in that race seemed to be picking up the track that day.....anyway that was his day and he got his win....it looks way better visually and on paper than it probably is and therefore I believe he will be over bet ....i will use hum defensively in horizontals and rooting for him bc I'm a fan.....for me my top 5 are
1. Nyquist
2. Brody's Cause
3. Gun Runner
4. Exaggerator
5. Mor Spirit

[OptionalClaimer]

I expect 5/1 or slightly higher, wouldn't take lower than 7/2



I think he is a good horse, but he had a dream trip in the last and both two turn wins are on off tracks. Definitely some questions. What price would you take on him?

[arw629]

I expect 5/1 or slightly higher, wouldn't take lower than 7/2

Exaggerator will be 10-1 in the derby ...i expect he'll be the third choice behind Nyquist and Brody

Without seeing the entire field and post positions I expect Nyquist will be favored at 4-1, Brody's Cause a closer than expected second choice of 6-1, Exaggerator third choice at 10-1 and then a small handful of runners between 12-1 and 16-1 including Gun Runner, Mohaymen, Mor Spirit, Sudden Breaking News, and Creator

[PowerUpPaynter]

I'm just so glad I'm holding a 7-1 futures bet ticket on Nyquist. Gives me so much flexibility betting. I'll spend like 200 on all exactas, trips, supers.

[cj]

I expect 5/1 or slightly higher, wouldn't take lower than 7/2

That won't be a problem for you. The favorite will probably be at least 7-2 and it won't be your horse.

[OptionalClaimer]

With 12 days to go I've now narrowed my horses down to two

My Man Sam & Exaggerator I will be using both on top in trifectas & supers.

[PowerUpPaynter]

With 12 days to go I've now narrowed my horses down to two

My Man Sam & Exaggerator I will be using both on top in trifectas & supers.


Do you think My Man Sam has enough of a foundation to win the derby?

as of now my top 5 is as follows.... and it changes by the day if not hour lol

1. Nyquist
2. Exaggerator
3. Creator
4. Mohaymen
5. Mor Spirit


i do like My Man Sam to finish somewhere 2-4

[dballard125]

1. Nyquist
2. Brody's Cause
3. Creator
4. Exaggerator
5. Mor Spirit

Closers I will play underneath: MMS and SBN

[bks]

That won't be a problem for you. The favorite will probably be at least 7-2 and it won't be your horse.

Disagree that Nyquist will be greater than 7/2. Public loves an unbeaten horse, and he's also very very good.

Exaggerator btw 8-1 and 10-1. Very fair price.

[classhandicapper]

IMO, this is a very complex Derby. Quite a few of the major preps had fast paces and/or were run on wet tracks. Between the two, it's hard to tell which horses are improving, which only did that well because of the setup or wet track, which may be getting better but didn't like an off track, and which got used up early, but could be rated.

[Spiderman]

I'm just so glad I'm holding a 7-1 futures bet ticket on Nyquist. Gives me so much flexibility betting. I'll spend like 200 on all exactas, trips, supers.

I bought into a TVG promotion - bet 20w on Nyquist in Florida Derby and first 20w on same runner in KY Derby gets 3x post time odds. Will take advantage of opportunity, even if Nyquist is 2-1, will get 6-1.

My main focus is to hit superfecta. I've hit KY Derby trifecta, twice. Had near miss in Animal Kingdom's win with fifth place finisher getting beat by a neck for last sfc slot. My other trifecta win was with Strike The Gold on top, Best Pal, placing.

Still too early to narrow contender list to less than sixteen! I determine race dynamics as a major factor for Derby.

[SecretAgentMan]

I bought into a TVG promotion - bet 20w on Nyquist in Florida Derby and first 20w on same runner in KY Derby gets 3x post time odds. Will take advantage of opportunity, even if Nyquist is 2-1, will get 6-1.

My main focus is to hit superfecta. I've hit KY Derby trifecta, twice. Had near miss in Animal Kingdom's win with fifth place finisher getting beat by a neck for last sfc slot. My other trifecta win was with Strike The Gold on top, Best Pal, placing.

Still too early to narrow contender list to less than sixteen! I determine race dynamics as a major factor for Derby.



Who do you like as your best closer?

[Spiderman]

Who do you like as your best closer?


Brody's Cause from 8-10 lengths back; Creator from 20+ back

[PowerUpPaynter]

Who do you like as your best closer?


Im a Mo Tom fan. so much heart. stop go stop go stop go just keeps fighting

[Spiderman]

Im a Mo Tom fan. so much heart. stop go stop go stop go just keeps fighting

Without checking in last two and bumping at gate, three back, Mo Tom, would certainly be a higher ranking candidate for all of the roses. I will use his # in the 3-4 slots, along with several others.

[OptionalClaimer]

I'm still on Exaggerator but my "saver" horse is My Man Sam

[porchy44]

I'm on Exaggerator and Suddenbreakingnews

[depalma113]

Exaggerator
Destin
Danzig Candy
Outwork
Nyquist


Others to consider:
Gun Runner
Majesto

[The Biscuit]

People are talking about what a bad post SBN , yet he's a deep closer , why does the 2 hole matter so much for a deep closer ??? Anyone ??:confused:

[delsully]

People are talking about what a bad post SBN , yet he's a deep closer , why does the 2 hole matter so much for a deep closer ??? Anyone ??:confused:

He's going to have to navigate through a plethora of horses. Though, he should save some ground around the first turn.

[f2tornado]

People are talking about what a bad post SBN , yet he's a deep closer , why does the 2 hole matter so much for a deep closer ??? Anyone ??:confused:

It helps he has a bunch of closers around him otherwise I'd be concerned. Even the maiden 1 horse closed 10 lengths on Outwork in the Wood. Not a terrible spot but still some risk of simply getting run over. This post draw result one of the more fascinating I've seen.

[tanner12oz]

He's going to have to navigate through a plethora of horses. Though, he should save some ground around the first turn.

he would navigate through a plethora from any post..he at least saves some ground from the inside

[razorback5]

The 2 hole isn't a bad spot to be in. I think that PP has done well lately in the derby.

Edit: looked it up. Last 10 years the 2 has had 1 2nd place, 3 third place and 1 fourth place finish. 50% finish in the super.

[The Biscuit]

Thanks for the research bro on the pp #2 last 10 years ... :)

[SecretAgentMan]

The 2 hole isn't a bad spot to be in. I think that PP has done well lately in the derby.

Edit: looked it up. Last 10 years the 2 has had 1 2nd place, 3 third place and 1 fourth place finish. 50% finish in the super.




Good info!