Beyer Formula Revisions?

[lamboguy]

beyer mentioned that they had changed some of the calculations for his figures. does anyone know if he included weight as a component because i will sometimes see a horse ran a 50 last start and then when he runs 3 weeks later than 50 2 starts back is now 47. it also seems like beaten lengths at every distance will change based upon final time of the race. he didn't say that but it looks like that.

[whodoyoulike]

beyer mentioned that they had changed some of the calculations for his figures. does anyone know if he included weight as a component because i will sometimes see a horse ran a 50 last start and then when he runs 3 weeks later than 50 2 starts back is now 47. it also seems like beaten lengths at every distance will change based upon final time of the race. he didn't say that but it looks like that.

Does Beyer have input for these beaten length changes or are the Beyer figures changed because of these changes?

I'm wondering how Beyer or any figure maker is notified of changes in times and beaten lengths after the fact.

[Cratos]

Does Beyer have input for these beaten length changes or are the Beyer figures changed because of these changes?

I'm wondering how Beyer or any figure maker is notified of changes in times and beaten lengths after the fact.
Many years ago and before Trakus data I used the standard DRF metric at the time of 8 feet/length, but today I use Time Behind Leader (TBL) because the standard length metric vary with respect to speed when time is considered.

[lamboguy]

Many years ago and before Trakus data I used the standard DRF metric at the time of 8 feet/length, but today I use Time Behind Leader (TBL) because the standard length metric vary with respect to speed when time is considered.

beaten lengths is supposed to be an estimate of tbl. real tbl is much better but only a few tracks use trakus.

[steveb]

beaten lengths is supposed to be an estimate of tbl. real tbl is much better but only a few tracks use trakus.

you should not need trakus for that, all it takes is for the race clubs to provide the time info that they already have and from which the margins are derived.
i am not sure that trakus is even responsible for the final times of horses at any track where it is installed.
they would come form the finish lynx or whatever they use, and would be 'real', so not sure what you mean by that.
trakus 'fits' their section times to these times imho.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Many years ago and before Trakus data I used the standard DRF metric at the time of 8 feet/length, but today I use Time Behind Leader (TBL) because the standard length metric vary with respect to speed when time is considered.

Several years ago, when I first saw the Trakkus "chicklets" racing across the telescreen and learned that they were tracking the position of the horses with respect to real time velocity and actual distance covered by each horse.

I felt that it was a far superior method for analyzing a horse's past performance relative to another competitor for a possible future forecast....

I still do. I think there are insiders in the racing community with a significant methodology and knowledge-base, and database element to provide them with a significant betting edge.

I have no way to prove this, it is just my feeling and instincts regarding the Trakkus phenomenon...I do not incorporate Trakkus into my handicapping but would like to..but I need some coaching...

I know that NYRA site and some others use Trakkus....Any suggestions on if and how I should make Trakkus the centerpiece of my handicapping?

[Cratos]

Several years ago, when I first saw the Trakkus "chicklets" racing across the telescreen and learned that they were tracking the position of the horses with respect to real time velocity and actual distance covered by each horse.

I felt that it was a far superior method for analyzing a horse's past performance relative to another competitor for a possible future forecast....

I still do. I think there are insiders in the racing community with a significant methodology and knowledge-base, and database element to provide them with a significant betting edge.

I have no way to prove this, it is just my feeling and instincts regarding the Trakkus phenomenon...I do not incorporate Trakkus into my handicapping but would like to..but I need some coaching...

I know that NYRA site and some others use Trakkus....Any suggestions on if and how I should make Trakkus the centerpiece of my handicapping?

I am a NYRA player (except Aqueduct) and I am a big user of Trakus chart data.

However me and my associates subscribe to both the DRF and Equibase for their PPs and I use Equibase charts for the run up distance.

Then we combine all of the result data into a single chart from our model.

I will put what our results look like into an Excel spreadsheet (if possible) and post it.

[cj]

you should not need trakus for that, all it takes is for the race clubs to provide the time info that they already have and from which the margins are derived.
i am not sure that trakus is even responsible for the final times of horses at any track where it is installed.
they would come form the finish lynx or whatever they use, and would be 'real', so not sure what you mean by that.
trakus 'fits' their section times to these times imho.

Just FYI, Trakus is the official provider for several tracks currently in the US. Pretty sure they also are for Woodbine but don't remember off the top of my head.

[EMD4ME]

beyer mentioned that they had changed some of the calculations for his figures. does anyone know if he included weight as a component because i will sometimes see a horse ran a 50 last start and then when he runs 3 weeks later than 50 2 starts back is now 47. it also seems like beaten lengths at every distance will change based upon final time of the race. he didn't say that but it looks like that.

I started a similar thread with my frustration with his team's lack of consistency.

On one card I had to adjust 4 races anywhere from 3 to 10 points for the winner AND then I had to adjust many of the "beaten horses" as his math made zero sense to me.

Hey, as long as the public uses those incorrect numbers, I am happy.

One example is Sunday's chalk in race 1 that I absolutely HATED anyway.

Horse was dropping from a maiden claiming winners only starter to an open 25 claimer for 3 yo. In my eyes, the 25 claimer level is not a drop. It could be a class hike as you could have multiple winners in that race where as in those stupid maiden claiming starters you have horses who have only won their maiden claiming race (with some exceptions as you can run for a tag).

Horse was terrible visually in his last start to boot.

To top it off, Beyer erroneously overcredited Majesticconfection's last race Beyer by 8 points..........

Was crushed in betting from 1 hour to post TILL post time and went off 1/1.


Dead last with no runs at all in the race.

[the little guy]

I started a similar thread with my frustration with his team's lack of consistency.

On one card I had to adjust 4 races anywhere from 3 to 10 points for the winner AND then I had to adjust many of the "beaten horses" as his math made zero sense to me.

Hey, as long as the public uses those incorrect numbers, I am happy.

One example is Sunday's chalk in race 1 that I absolutely HATED anyway.

Horse was dropping from a maiden claiming winners only starter to an open 25 claimer for 3 yo. In my eyes, the 25 claimer level is not a drop. It could be a class hike as you could have multiple winners in that race where as in those stupid maiden claiming starters you have horses who have only won their maiden claiming race (with some exceptions as you can run for a tag).

Horse was terrible visually in his last start to boot.

To top it off, Beyer erroneously overcredited Majesticconfection's last race Beyer by 8 points..........

Was crushed in betting from 1 hour to post TILL post time and went off 1/1.


Dead last with no runs at all in the race.

There's only one problem with this assertion....it completely ignores that Love You Babe ( aka the 2 ) finished 1 1/2 lengths behind Majesticconfection ( aka the 1 ) in that supposed bad figure race...yet finished third in the 1st on Sunday, justifying the gap between that fig and the winner's fig. It also ignored that the winner's last fig was 5 points higher than Majesticconfection, and suggests that the ONLY reason Majesticconfection was favored was the fig, when in fact that defies logic.

CJ's figs had the winner's last race three points higher than Majesticconfection's, so he actually had them closer than Beyer, which only suggests to me that Beyer was actually correct, in that CJ, a different figure maker, saw it similarly.

Listen, we all look at things differently, and that's great, but the random blame that gets thrown at Beyer does a disservice to people, as it perpetuates an incorrect myth and ultimately leads people in the wrong direction. At the end of the day, the data suggests the odds on Majesticconfection actually had little to do with the speed figure, and nothing to do with its accuracy.

[steveb]

Just FYI, Trakus is the official provider for several tracks currently in the US. Pretty sure they also are for Woodbine but don't remember off the top of my head.

thanks for clarification
does that mean they run the photo finish equipment at those places too?
are they places that give you problems as regards overall race/horse times?

[cj]

thanks for clarification
does that mean they run the photo finish equipment at those places too?
are they places that give you problems as regards overall race/horse times?

I do not think the photo finishes are handled by Trakus. I'm nearly certain of that.

Trakus is as reliable as the other systems most of the time though they are a few track configurations that give consistent problems. Gulfstream mile dirt races and turf races with wide temp rail settings, for example, are troublesome.

[steveb]

I do not think the photo finishes are handled by Trakus. I'm nearly certain of that.

Trakus is as reliable as the other systems most of the time though they are a few track configurations that give consistent problems. Gulfstream mile dirt races and turf races with wide temp rail settings, for example, are troublesome.

thanks, but i am confused now.
the overall times is where the margins are derived from, and isn't that from finish lynx or similar?

if what you say is correct, then there would likely be 2 sets of times at those places?
one from trakus and the other from the photo finish operator?
if that is right, it would be interesting to see what the differences were.

[Cratos]

thanks, but i am confused now.
the overall times is where the margins are derived from, and isn't that from finish lynx or similar?

if what you say is correct, then there would likely be 2 sets of times at those places?
one from trakus and the other from the photo finish operator?
if that is right, it would be interesting to see what the differences were.
At most if not all NA racetracks where Trakus timing is used there's also the "Teletimer" which has been timing NA thoroughbred racing longer than Trakus.

It would difficult to do photofinish of a horserace with the present Trakus configuration because to the best of my knowledge Trakus saddle cloth embedded chip is not camera synchronized with the photo finish camera as is the teletimer beam.

Also in NA the teletimer method time the "RACE" with the lead horse at fixed points during the race. Trakus method time "ALL HORSES" in the race along the route they travel during the race.

[EMD4ME]

There's only one problem with this assertion....it completely ignores that Love You Babe ( aka the 2 ) finished 1 1/2 lengths behind Majesticconfection ( aka the 1 ) in that supposed bad figure race...yet finished third in the 1st on Sunday, justifying the gap between that fig and the winner's fig. It also ignored that the winner's last fig was 5 points higher than Majesticconfection, and suggests that the ONLY reason Majesticconfection was favored was the fig, when in fact that defies logic.

CJ's figs had the winner's last race three points higher than Majesticconfection's, so he actually had them closer than Beyer, which only suggests to me that Beyer was actually correct, in that CJ, a different figure maker, saw it similarly.

Listen, we all look at things differently, and that's great, but the random blame that gets thrown at Beyer does a disservice to people, as it perpetuates an incorrect myth and ultimately leads people in the wrong direction. At the end of the day, the data suggests the odds on Majesticconfection actually had little to do with the speed figure, and nothing to do with its accuracy.

The beauty of this game is we can all see the same thing but view it differently.

I see Love you babe with a solid trip Sunday, running a 46B. Love you babe had a 55B in her last race, I had her as a 47B. She had similar trips and ran true to what I saw (in terms of Beyer speed figs).

The March 20th card is the perfect example of what I am talking about (weird figure assessments). I have 4 races way different than him and hey, I could be wrong but IF I am right, I have some value to work with (against the Beyer players).

Race 8, he credits the winner with a 94B. To me that was an 81B raw. He obviously adjusted the fig up 13 points due to the ridiculously slow pace.

Knowing that, I know that certain horses who stayed close to the slow pace and then were outkicked in the lane (FAST Q3) have dressed up speed figs that are 13 points too high.

Not killing Andy for it. Just pointing out how there is value out there in understanding his figs and MORE importantly in how to properly utilize his figs (as he constantly preaches).

[the little guy]

Except I don't see how using a race where the top fig won, yet wasn't favored, is a good example.

[EMD4ME]

Except I don't see how using a race where the top fig won, yet wasn't favored, is a good example.

But that's the main point. People overvalue figs. It is because of this error that kind of made this field look to be evenly matched. ( 2 lengths difference in peak figures ).

It is my opinion (besides all other handicapping angles) that the 5 had a last out 63 and the 1 had a last out 50. Because (again in my humble opinion) the 5 had such a defined edge in figs (6 lengths) this horse should have been 2/5.

Because of the error (again, my subjective opinion) this horse went off the 2nd choice at 1.60 instead of .40.

People might laugh but the difference between a 40% mutual fund and a 160% is night and day.

The difference between singling an 8/5 vs using an additional contender is 50% less cost in a pick 5.

Nevertheless, I see your main point. I'll try and point out other "supposed beyer discrepencies" in more impactful scenarios.

I'll start here. WOOD DAY.

Race 8 and Race 10. Beyer has the WOOD earning a 93B. Lewis Bay earned an 86.

By my eyes, the WOOD, earned an 83-86 Beyer. 10-7 points less than what was given. Now, the performace figure of the winner should be much higher as he was with the hot pace. Regardless of that, we're discussing speed figs, not performance figs.

The runner up maiden earned a 93B. Now any true handicapper, from a pace perspective is smart enough to know that Trojan Nation didn't truly run a 93B. From a pace perspective, he sucked up into a 93B. (Let's place aside the fact that he might've ran on a dead rail for a second). From a Speed Fig perspective, his 93B is bullcrap.

It looks to me like the Beyer team adjusted the fig up due to pace. This selective upgrading or downgrading due to pace is not fair to the average joe.

Here are the splits:

Race 8 23.93 48.67 113.88 139.17 152.60 86B
Race 10 22.91 46.93 112.31 138.90 152.92 93B

One can't say he had the track 5 1/2 lengths slower for the 10th race vs the 8th....Why?

Because look what he did for the 9th and 11th

Race 9 22.65 45.88 110.34 122.86 102B
Race 11 22.36 45.06 109.86 123.15 102B (even figure to race 9, so he obviously made the track 2 lenghts slower for race 11).

The aforementioned figs are the ones that drive me nuts (from a logic/mathematical perspective).

Now, I have no unhealthy ego. I always want to learn and sharpen my saw. Am I missing something here?