Enola Gray

[SuperPickle]

I don't know who saw the 7th at SA but Phil D'Amato just rolled out a Nick Alexander homebred that went wire-to-wire in 1:13 and 4/5 for six and a half totally geared down. Won by about 18 lengths.

You don't generally see a lot of Cal Bred three old fillies run 1:13 first out in a cantor. This horse could be something.

CJ I know the track was both suped up and speed biased but I'm dying to know a fig.

[Nitro]

Not only did I see it, I had it too. I certainly didn't rely on any speed numbers with a first time stater. The ONLY numbers that really mean anything are those in the betting pools! The tote analysis proves it time and again!
(See posts #9 & #10)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=130239

A real nice filly though!

[SG4]

I don't know who saw the 7th at SA but Phil D'Amato just rolled out a Nick Alexander homebred that went wire-to-wire in 1:13 and 4/5 for six and a half totally geared down. Won by about 18 lengths.

You don't generally see a lot of Cal Bred three old fillies run 1:13 first out in a cantor. This horse could be something.

CJ I know the track was both suped up and speed biased but I'm dying to know a fig.

I imagine the Beyer fig will come back somewhere in the vicinity of 97, certainly a real deal effort from a FTS Cal bred. Wonder if they get a little aggressive and try for the filly stake on the undercard of Oaks day, or looks like May 15 would be the next spot that makes sense in CA, maybe if she duplicates there could be on to the Acorn? Always leery 2nd out though off races on such very fast tracks.

Nitro, I know there's a lot of complexity to your tote system, but based on this field I wouldn't have thought 4-1 was really tipping their hand in here, considering her ML was 4-1 & I thought that was possibly generous.

[dilanesp]

bombs away?

[plainolebill]

Hard to say how special that is, first race an off the turf MSW went 1:13 and change, in the 3rd race 25k claimers did the same thing.

[SuperPickle]

Hard to say how special that is, first race an off the turf MSW went 1:13 and change, in the 3rd race 25k claimers did the same thing.

Yeah that's the issue. However the other side of the coin iis the track slowed throughout the day. For example the second to last race was F&M open N1X and they went in 1:08.4 for horses that are around 1:10. By comparison she went 1:07.2 and for six. So either she's a second and a half faster or the track continued to slow.

My hunch is the track opened 2 to 3 seconds faster than normal and ended the day about a second faster as it was worked on and ran over.

Unadjusted her Beyer would be 105-110 which would put her as fast as Run Happy or Private Zone My hunch is adjusted in comes back low 90's which puts her in Cathryn Sophia/Berniks Bank territory.

[Wickel]

bombs away?

Good one. :D:D:D

[Stillriledup]

Yeah that's the issue. However the other side of the coin iis the track slowed throughout the day. For example the second to last race was F&M open N1X and they went in 1:08.4 for horses that are around 1:10. By comparison she went 1:07.2 and for six. So either she's a second and a half faster or the track continued to slow.

My hunch is the track opened 2 to 3 seconds faster than normal and ended the day about a second faster as it was worked on and ran over.

Unadjusted her Beyer would be 105-110 which would put her as fast as Run Happy or Private Zone My hunch is adjusted in comes back low 90's which puts her in Cathryn Sophia/Berniks Bank territory.

You think the track got slower? I was thinking it got faster, but that was just eyeballing it, shhh she's ours isn't a '108' type of horse, especially under heavy pressure.

[SG4]

The winning time by Dreamologist is what puts a wrinkle in trying to figure out how the track may have changed during the day. I think most races throughout the day lined up pretty well, but then you would've expected this stake race to show up with a final time around 1:14 or so, but it came up over a second slower. I'm inclined to think the track stayed the same all day & this effort just happened to be subpar, but got it done vs mostly turf fillies.

[VigorsTheGrey]

I keep looking at the replay of her maiden score...her comfirmation appears superior....her hind quarters and long legs are amazing...I wish I knew more about confirmation but my instincts tell me that this filly is proportioned quite well...

[Stillriledup]

I keep looking at the replay of her maiden score...her comfirmation appears superior....her hind quarters and long legs are amazing...I wish I knew more about confirmation but my instincts tell me that this filly is proportioned quite well...

And she's grey, so, there's that! :D

[overthehill]

This was possibly the most impressive race by a first time starter that I have ever seen. not only was she never asked but the jockey was standing straight up holding her back as she was drawing away on the turn. I think he finally decided he better sit down before he falls off the horse. I wll be surprised if she is not in a graded stake next time out. she is my pick for the test.

[cj]

I don't know who saw the 7th at SA but Phil D'Amato just rolled out a Nick Alexander homebred that went wire-to-wire in 1:13 and 4/5 for six and a half totally geared down. Won by about 18 lengths.

You don't generally see a lot of Cal Bred three old fillies run 1:13 first out in a cantor. This horse could be something.

CJ I know the track was both suped up and speed biased but I'm dying to know a fig.

She ran a 110 on my figures.

[SG4]

Beyer fig of 99

[VigorsTheGrey]

Beyer fig of 99

How are you able to get Beyer figures so early (if you can). I was wondering on another thread WHEN the Beyer figure, the speed figure/ track variant, and now the 4 Pace Icons are first known....now that I know that the speed figure/ variant is averaged after the day's races (per DRF)....are the Pace Icons known before the Beyer is known...does the Beyer incorporate the new Pace Icon info into making the Beyer?

I know this stuff is proprietary but I would like at least to know generally HOW DRF arrives at their figures....It's not like I am going to crank out what they do for myself...All I'm attempting is to find out is WHEN the info is first established after the race is run? If I knew what the track variant was on the same day of the race instead of having to wait 1-3 weeks....it might make a difference in my selections the next day or so...

Or where else are track variant info stored and/or available...seems like the track crew should have some data on their dirt on a daily basis, soil tests, compaction test, moisture tests...you know all the geo-technical standard tests...on file?

[SG4]

How are you able to get Beyer figures so early (if you can). I was wondering on another thread WHEN the Beyer figure, the speed figure/ track variant, and now the 4 Pace Icons are first known....now that I know that the speed figure/ variant is averaged after the day's races (per DRF)....are the Pace Icons known before the Beyer is known...does the Beyer incorporate the new Pace Icon info into making the Beyer?

I know this stuff is proprietary but I would like at least to know generally HOW DRF arrives at their figures....It's not like I am going to crank out what they do for myself...All I'm attempting is to find out is WHEN the info is first established after the race is run? If I knew what the track variant was on the same day of the race instead of having to wait 1-3 weeks....it might make a difference in my selections the next day or so...

Or where else are track variant info stored and/or available...seems like the track crew should have some data on their dirt on a daily basis, soil tests, compaction test, moisture tests...you know all the geo-technical standard tests...on file?

I caught the Beyer fig in an article on DRF. Seems like the Beyer figs nowadays are churned out within 24 hours, believe it used to take a few days on some decisions but seems consistently quicker lately.

Does anyone know if DRF still publishes in print or online the winners' book of Beyer figs for all races over the course of the week? This may be long discontinued for all I know, but sounds like something you might be looking for.

I don't know how much science goes into the track variant, I always just figured it was an educated guess (maybe estimate is a better term than guess) based on races run that day & the times were compared to par times for similar class levels & previous results of the competitors...this is only my assumption, would be happy if someone was able to supply facts if they have them.

[outofthebox]

Runs today at Del Mar first time out of her state bred category in the Gr3 TorreyPines . Beautiful gray filly facing off against stablemate Bellamentary.

[SuperPickle]

Runs today at Del Mar first time out of her state bred category in the Gr3 TorreyPines . Beautiful gray filly facing off against stablemate Bellamentary.

Scratched.

Minor cough. Going to Lewis at Los Al in two weeks.