Arkansas Derby

[PowerUpPaynter]

Well lets get talking about the last one of the 100 pt prep races.

Im looking for 2 things.

1. Cupid to set a blazing pace the more speed the harder it is for Nyquist

2. Whitmore is intriguing to me. Waiting for him to put it all together.

[SecretAgentMan]

Well lets get talking about the last one of the 100 pt prep races.

Im looking for 2 things.

1. Cupid to set a blazing pace the more speed the harder it is for Nyquist

2. Whitmore is intriguing to me. Waiting for him to put it all together.


When I saw Danzig Candy go out fast for the half mile, I got excited, because I'm.hoping he does the same in the KD along with Cupid & a few others chasing along with Nyquist getting burned up. This is why I'm.thinking a Giacomo might pop this year.

[PowerUpPaynter]

When I saw Danzig Candy go out fast for the half mile, I got excited, because I'm.hoping he does the same in the KD along with Cupid & a few others chasing along with Nyquist getting burned up. This is why I'm.thinking a Giacomo might pop this year.

agreed! that is what ww need to beat Nyquist otherwise forget about it chalk again

[f2tornado]

When I saw Danzig Candy go out fast for the half mile, I got excited, because I'm.hoping he does the same in the KD along with Cupid & a few others chasing along with Nyquist getting burned up. This is why I'm.thinking a Giacomo might pop this year.

There is a lot of potential early speed this year which might have the effect of having the pre-points sprinters in there. Outwork reminds me a little of Bodemeister but likely not quite as good. I'm not sold Nyquist will be up front. His fractions don't suggest a blazer type. I have not found the "Giacomo" unless he's in the Ark.

[tanner12oz]

Well lets get talking about the last one of the 100 pt prep races.

Im looking for 2 things.

1. Cupid to set a blazing pace the more speed the harder it is for Nyquist

2. Whitmore is intriguing to me. Waiting for him to put it all together.

I very much like Whitmore..not sure if he matures in times for derby but he could very well.be one of those late developing BC types for next year. To me he's solid all around..those seem to be horses that go on to handicap glory vs flash in the pan 3 yr old glory

[Lemon Drop Husker]

There is a lot of potential early speed this year which might have the effect of having the pre-points sprinters in there. Outwork reminds me a little of Bodemeister but likely not quite as good. I'm not sold Nyquist will be up front. His fractions don't suggest a blazer type. I have not found the "Giacomo" unless he's in the Ark.

Seems to be plenty of "Giacomo" deep closer types.

Exaggerator, Brody's Cause, My Man Sam, Mo Tom, Suddenbreakingnews, Creator, and Fellowship.

Fellowship, if he gets in, likely fits the Giacomo tab the closest. A plodding closer that just keeps coming and will go off at 50/1 type odds. Not sure any of the others, maybe My Man Sam, that will go off at odds of that high if they get in.

[f2tornado]

Seems to be plenty of "Giacomo" deep closer types.

I was referring to the odds. There are several speedsters and a number of closer types. Giacomo at least closed fast in the SA Derby. My Man Sam might be the longest odds of the few sub 38 second closers but I doubt we'll see 50-1 on him. I'll certainly take the Bold Ruler on top and the Cherokee Rose in tail female and the horse had no trouble with the outside draw. After further review, that maiden Trojan horse in the Wood is actually no slouch in the breeding department either. It really makes me wonder how in the hell it is still a maiden. Raise A Native on top, Buckpasser-x Lassie Dear bred with Secretariat, Female family 1-o Query. He closed very well too but not as fast as Sam, Brody, or Exaggerator. I could actually see that thing blow up the exotics at 50-1 or finish well back.

[SecretAgentMan]

Seems to be plenty of "Giacomo" deep closer types.

Exaggerator, Brody's Cause, My Man Sam, Mo Tom, Suddenbreakingnews, Creator, and Fellowship.

Fellowship, if he gets in, likely fits the Giacomo tab the closest. A plodding closer that just keeps coming and will go off at 50/1 type odds. Not sure any of the others, maybe My Man Sam, that will go off at odds of that high if they get in.



I forgot about Fellowship, he's come in 3rd place 3 straight races going into the KD. Hmm.....like you stated, quite a few Giacomo's running this year, & I have that feeling a big long shot rolls in.

I'm still playing Gun Runner, but will put several longshots on top in several trips & super tickets just in case. I don't want to state at the TV like I did with Giacomo scratching my head wondering WTF did he come from?

[f2tornado]

Fellowship has not closed very fast. He's just been there at the end due to short fields and lackluster competition. Someone's gotta finish third.

[SecretAgentMan]

Fellowship has not closed very fast. He's just been there at the end due to short fields and lackluster competition. Someone's gotta finish third.



My favorite long shot is My Man Sam, he will be underneath all my Gun Runner tickets. Will also put him on top just in case.

[f2tornado]

My favorite long shot is My Man Sam, he will be underneath all my Gun Runner tickets. Will also put him on top just in case.

I like him as well for some exotics action. Hopefully Leparoux doesn't fall off. I'll be using your Gun Runner underneath as well. Really leaning toward Exaggerator in the top spot. The only Raise A Native with sub 38 closing speed though Gun Runner not far away. SA Derby horses don't usually win when they clock above 1:48 but willing to overlook it given the track condition.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I was referring to the odds. There are several speedsters and a number of closer types. Giacomo at least closed fast in the SA Derby. My Man Sam might be the longest odds of the few sub 38 second closers but I doubt we'll see 50-1 on him. I'll certainly take the Bold Ruler on top and the Cherokee Rose in tail female and the horse had no trouble with the outside draw. After further review, that maiden Trojan horse in the Wood is actually no slouch in the breeding department either. It really makes me wonder how in the hell it is still a maiden. Raise A Native on top, Buckpasser-x Lassie Dear bred with Secretariat, Female family 1-o Query. He closed very well too but not as fast as Sam, Brody, or Exaggerator. I could actually see that thing blow up the exotics at 50-1 or finish well back.

Giacomo definitely didn't close fast in the Santa Anita Derby. Started 8th, moved to 6th around 6F and was in 4th at the top of the stretch where he remained and actually lost half a length to 3rd place Wilko.

He was a plodding type heading into the Derby in which he was a horse that just kept coming. He got the perfect set up of blistering fractions of a 1:09 6F and a sub 1:36 mile. While it looked like he was flying late, everybody else was simply crawling. The final 4F were run in over 53 seconds. This is why I see Fellowship as the closest comparison in this crop to Giacomo.

[yankeelpn]

Whitmore is starting to remind me of Mor Spirit

[yankeelpn]

Cant stop thinking Mo Tom/jockey will redeem themselves in the KD, has won at CD last year. Speed will be there and will have a better position this time. Just wonder what Mo Tom's odds will be?? 10-20/1??

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Cant stop thinking Mo Tom/jockey will redeem themselves in the KD, has won at CD last year. Speed will be there and will have a better position this time. Just wonder what Mo Tom's odds will be?? 10-20/1??

I think we'll get at least 20/1 on Mo Tom. Exaggerator just vaulted to a likely 2nd favorite and along with Nyquist, they both may well be 6/1 or less. You then have Gun Runner, Mohaymen, Cupid, Outwork, Mor Spirit, Destin, and maybe even Brody's Cause that will be favored over Mo Tom.

He has finished 3rd and 4th in consecutive races against rather weak fields. He has ran into trouble in 12 horse fields, so people won't give him a 3rd chance in a 20 horse field. Many people will be looking at him as a complete toss, even in Superfectas.

[yankeelpn]

Mor Spirit is my top chiose since last year, but Mo Tom to me has a better burst in the stretch and odds should be nice. 1. Mo Tom 2. Mor Spirit 3. Nyquist 4. Toms Ready/Gun Runner/Fellowship/Mohaymen

[f2tornado]

Giacomo definitely didn't close fast in the Santa Anita Derby. Started 8th, moved to 6th around 6F and was in 4th at the top of the stretch where he remained and actually lost half a length to 3rd place Wilko.

He was a plodding type heading into the Derby in which he was a horse that just kept coming. He got the perfect set up of blistering fractions of a 1:09 6F and a sub 1:36 mile. While it looked like he was flying late, everybody else was simply crawling. The final 4F were run in over 53 seconds. This is why I see Fellowship as the closest comparison in this crop to Giacomo.

Looks can be deceiving. The Santa Anita Derby winner ran a final 3/8th in 37.84 in that race. Giacomo gained more than two lengths on the leader through the final 3/8th indicative of a final 3/8th in around 37.6 seconds. Seven out of ten Derby winners have had a final 3/8th in 9F prep in 37.8 or less. Add in a Mike Smith and it wasn't such a lousy bet at 50-1. I will need to look at the Derby splits that year but know Giacomo rallied from 11th at the mile pole so his final quarter was faster than the raw time for the race. Amusingly, the final time was still faster than AP last year.

[boys at tosconova]

so much love for mo tom.

not based on what he did but what people thought he would do if he had a clean trip.

seems like a very square play....and people think they're some kind of handicapping guru picking him, like they know something that nobody else does.

[Mc990]

so much love for mo tom.

not based on what he did but what people thought he would do if he had a clean trip.

seems like a very square play....and people think they're some kind of handicapping guru picking him, like they know something that nobody else does.

Couldn't agree more... The horse has shown no signs of being good enough (bad trips or not). I think it comes back to the old adage, there is no such thing as a bad trip in a slow race! Now he most assuredly will lose ground in Louisville... No way jock keeps him on the rail again. 1st toss for me.

The horse I'm willing to give a pass to from Fairgrounds is Gun Runner. He looks tractable and the pattern is live for a career best. Probably won't offer any value in the win pool but he is one I'd be scared to leave off my tickets.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I was referring to the odds. There are several speedsters and a number of closer types. Giacomo at least closed fast in the SA Derby. My Man Sam might be the longest odds of the few sub 38 second closers but I doubt we'll see 50-1 on him. I'll certainly take the Bold Ruler on top and the Cherokee Rose in tail female and the horse had no trouble with the outside draw. After further review, that maiden Trojan horse in the Wood is actually no slouch in the breeding department either. It really makes me wonder how in the hell it is still a maiden. Raise A Native on top, Buckpasser-x Lassie Dear bred with Secretariat, Female family 1-o Query. He closed very well too but not as fast as Sam, Brody, or Exaggerator. I could actually see that thing blow up the exotics at 50-1 or finish well back.

We are definitely on the same page here F2. Plus it looks like the horse has that progressively rounding into form like many closers do. I am feeling a tinge of excitement because of both the potential big run coexisting with big odds!

[delsully]

We are definitely on the same page here F2. Plus it looks like the horse has that progressively rounding into form like many closers do. I am feeling a tinge of excitement because of both the potential big run coexisting with big odds!

I hope your both right, I got 100-1 on him just before the BG.

[pele polo]

Good gracious. I've got to here for 3 1/2 weeks more about what Mo Tom could have done with a clean trip. He is what he is and that's overrated. He wasn't going to get to Gun Runner in the La Derby

As far as the Ark Derby, I like Cupid and Creator. Whitmore underneath those. I think we've seen enough from this Oaklawn group to know what we have. I won't be cute and try to add one of these recent maiden winners like American Pioneer or make a case for Cutacroner or Discreetness either

Btw, Mo Tom may not even make the Debry.

[SecretAgentMan]

Good gracious. I've got to here for 3 1/2 weeks more about what Mo Tom could have done with a clean trip. He is what he is and that's overrated. He wasn't going to get to Gun Runner in the La Derby

As far as the Ark Derby, I like Cupid and Creator. Whitmore underneath those. I think we've seen enough from this Oaklawn group to know what we have. I won't be cute and try to add one of these recent maiden winners like American Pioneer or make a case for Cutacroner or Discreetness either

Btw, Mo Tom may not even make the Debry.



Yeah, don't understand the love fest for Mo Tom. Anytime I ever see horses in their preps getting into trouble like he has, I quickly throw them out. Just don't see how this horse will avoid traffic in a 20 horse field if he can do it in half that field.

I do think he will be taken wide & might come in 5th

I'm interested in how Whitmore races.

[Bennie]

I thought this was about the Arkansas Derby. :confused: My bad

[pele polo]

I thought this was about the Arkansas Derby. :confused: My bad

We could be talking about next year's Brooklyn Handicap and Mo Tom would somehow enter the conversation. "He's always needed more ground." Or "he's more mature now." Lol.

Hes the 2016 version of Mylute (who btw ran in last weekend's Commonwealth at 7f)

[PowerUpPaynter]

We could be talking about next year's Brooklyn Handicap and Mo Tom would somehow enter the conversation. "He's always needed more ground." Or "he's more mature now." Lol.

Hes the 2016 version of Mylute (who btw ran in last weekend's Commonwealth at 7f)


he ran pretty decent final fractions knowing he was stopped twice 38 1/5 final 3/8 and 13 final 1/8th. with the speed that anticipated i think he lands in the super.. dont get me wrong Mo Tom is not taking down Nyquist but really who is? No one ive seen run yet. Well see this weekend if anyone can jump out but i smell chalk again. and if it smells like chalk and looks like chalk then its chalk...

[f2tornado]

Seems like everyone is talking this race in every other thread. Tough race to cap. I did notice Gettysburg ran a final 3/8th at Sunland in around 37.4 which is impressive. If he can replicate that performance then will have a chance to run down Cupid and Whitmore in the stretch. There are several others that offer at least some intrigue like Unbridled Outlaw second off the layoff, Dazzling Gem who finished respectable third at Fair Grounds, Creator who was five wide in Rebel, SBN who found his kick too late last out. I think my main play will be :10: :12: / :8: :10: :12: exacta and tri while sprinkling the :4: and :6: on bottom of a couple plays.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Seems like everyone is talking this race in every other thread. Tough race to cap. I did notice Gettysburg ran a final 3/8th at Sunland in around 37.4 which is impressive. If he can replicate that performance then will have a chance to run down Cupid and Whitmore in the stretch. There are several others that offer at least some intrigue like Unbridled Outlaw second off the layoff, Dazzling Gem who finished respectable third at Fair Grounds, Creator who was five wide in Rebel, SBN who found his kick too late last out. I think my main play will be :10: :12: / :8: :10: :12: exacta and tri while sprinkling the :4: and :6: on bottom of a couple plays.

For the sake of discussion:

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT+BOB/9999/summary.htm

[azeri98]

Seems to be plenty of "Giacomo" deep closer types.

Exaggerator, Brody's Cause, My Man Sam, Mo Tom, Suddenbreakingnews, Creator, and Fellowship.

Fellowship, if he gets in, likely fits the Giacomo tab the closest. A plodding closer that just keeps coming and will go off at 50/1 type odds. Not sure any of the others, maybe My Man Sam, that will go off at odds of that high if they get in.
I like My Man Sam as the closer type in this derby but rarely do deep closers ever win it, you need to be in the first or second flight, in a20 horse field if it was smaller then there would be a better chance for a deep closer.

[VigorsTheGrey]

In looking at this race, I'd like to put the spotlight on the pace role that American Pioneer(AP) may find himself in. With confirmed closers, Suddenbreakingnews, and Creator to his immediate inside, AP may be placed fairly forward going in to the first turn. Neither rushing nor lagging both Cut a Corner and Discreteness I picture also behind AP going into the first turn. That takes care of posts 1 thru 5.

I picture Unbridled Outlaw NOT going for the lead either with jockey Corey Lanerie attempting to position his mount near the inside but behind the first flight for the attempt at one of his patented top of the stretch rail hole shots. We have seen this move with jockeys before with mixed results, sometimes shrewdly and tactically winning, but often blocked and restraining forward momentum on quality mounts for safety.

Dazzling Gem will send but in no rush either and just lay right in next to American Pioneer (AP). And Whitmore must needs be placed next to Dazzling Gem. Luna de Loco will fall in behind Whitmore.

Cupid must send initially to gain forward placement and he'll pull his half-brother Gray Sky along with him.

Gettsyburg will fall in behind this pair to avoid being carried wide.

Pretty much stays like this till the mid-point on the turn for home....Anybody have any idea where American Pioneer will be then?

[Tall One]

We could be talking about next year's Brooklyn Handicap and Mo Tom would somehow enter the conversation.


:D

[Michael]

I like Dazzling Gem. That 12/1 ML is too absurd for me to ignore.

Bet to win

then something like :10: :7: / :10: :7: :8: :5: / :10: :7: :8: :5: :12: :4:

Maybe Gettysburg can improve and steal 2nd? possibly switch out :5: for :12: to place. Certainly interesting race. :ThmbUp:

[boys at tosconova]

I like Dazzling Gem. That 12/1 ML is too absurd for me to ignore.



this horse reminds me of laoban

imo this race is tough to bet.

[boys at tosconova]

In looking at this race, I'd like to put the spotlight on the pace role that American Pioneer(AP) may find himself in. With confirmed closers, Suddenbreakingnews, and Creator to his immediate inside, AP may be placed fairly forward going in to the first turn. Neither rushing nor lagging both Cut a Corner and Discreteness I picture also behind AP going into the first turn. That takes care of posts 1 thru 5.

I picture Unbridled Outlaw NOT going for the lead either with jockey Corey Lanerie attempting to position his mount near the inside but behind the first flight for the attempt at one of his patented top of the stretch rail hole shots. We have seen this move with jockeys before with mixed results, sometimes shrewdly and tactically winning, but often blocked and restraining forward momentum on quality mounts for safety.

Dazzling Gem will send but in no rush either and just lay right in next to American Pioneer (AP). And Whitmore must needs be placed next to Dazzling Gem. Luna de Loco will fall in behind Whitmore.

Cupid must send initially to gain forward placement and he'll pull his half-brother Gray Sky along with him.

Gettsyburg will fall in behind this pair to avoid being carried wide.

Pretty much stays like this till the mid-point on the turn for home....Anybody have any idea where American Pioneer will be then?

it's possible..but w/o much inside the horse i cannot see why unbridled won't leave for position up front....

[CosmicWon]

Considering who his trainer is and how often the horse has been a player in cross-country 3yo graded stakes this season, I'm pretty sure Loaban is a very nice colt.

A graded stakes winner for sure if under the care of Pletcher or Casse and even with a Rudy Rod or Amoss. I think he's running these solid races in spite of his training not because of it.

Laoban=Moreno 2.0. Moreno 1.0 did eventually win a G1 too... Not even remotely suggesting Laoban is any kind of serious Derby contender, but on innate ability alone, he's more than meets the eye.

Gettysburg is not very good. Please save your money and don't bet him. He's not even as good as Rule and is more like Brethren in terms of quality as of now. And not only is he slow, you can see how easily he capitulates when it's time to run, which is the opposite of what you want in a racehorse.