On Track Records and Beyer Figures

[VigorsTheGrey]

Limousine Liberal sprinted wire to wire to capture Keenelands' Race 2 on Saturday, April 9 2016, an Allowance Optional Claiming $62,500 event.

The time of 1.15:05 minutes established a new track record for 6.5 Furlongs Dirt.

How will the Beyer figure for this winner be set?

What will it be?

Does this suggest that the Keeneland Dirt surface is speeding-up?

Carina Mia just broke the track record in Fall 2015 and now a new record...Might the dirt surface at Keeneland play more to speed types now than before?

[cj]

Limousine Liberal sprinted wire to wire to capture Keenelands' Race 2 on Saturday, April 9 2016, an Allowance Optional Claiming $62,500 event.

The time of 1.15:05 minutes established a new track record for 6.5 Furlongs Dirt.

How will the Beyer figure for this winner be set?

What will it be?

Does this suggest that the Keeneland Dirt surface is speeding-up?

Carina Mia just broke the track record in Fall 2015 and now a new record...Might the dirt surface at Keeneland play more to speed types now than before?

Track records shouldn't mean a thing when it comes to speed figures. Records are more a function of the speed of the track in combination with the quality of the horses. In this case it is further complicated by the fact it is a new surface and few races have been run at the distance, especially by top quality horses.

[Cratos]

Limousine Liberal sprinted wire to wire to capture Keenelands' Race 2 on Saturday, April 9 2016, an Allowance Optional Claiming $62,500 event.

The time of 1.15:05 minutes established a new track record for 6.5 Furlongs Dirt.

How will the Beyer figure for this winner be set?

What will it be?

Does this suggest that the Keeneland Dirt surface is speeding-up?

Carina Mia just broke the track record in Fall 2015 and now a new record...Might the dirt surface at Keeneland play more to speed types now than before?
Let's be very be clear, the speed of any moving object (man, animal, or machine) is a function of the environment of the occurrence of the object's motion.

Having said that, each figure-maker have their own way of developing his/her figures.

[VigorsTheGrey]

I'm wondering who goes out to the track each race and measures the "cushion" depth of the racecourse? If the Beyer speed figure is a function of physical structure of the compaction and harrowing of the course, then WHO is measuring this and reporting the changes to WHOM?

[Tom]

That is not part of the Beyer number.
It is strictly what figure was expected compared what figure was actually run.
No physics involved.

[VigorsTheGrey]

I am not really clear about how all of this happens...who is doing the comparing? Does the DRF have people watching the track crews? How is the track variant reported? To whom and when? Changes in the racing surface are totally part of what the Beyer speed figures will be...I guess I'm interested in the process of how the figures are arrived at from the moment when the winner crosses the finish line to when the Form is printed up....maybe no person is involved...it's all computers....I don't know....wish I had some answers...maybe CLASS HANDICAPPER would know more...are there people involved in arriving at the Beyer figure and the Speed/ Variant number?

[Cratos]

I am not really clear about how all of this happens...who is doing the comparing? Does the DRF have people watching the track crews? How is the track variant reported? To whom and when? Changes in the racing surface are totally part of what the Beyer speed figures will be...I guess I'm interested in the process of how the figures are arrived at from the moment when the winner crosses the finish line to when the Form is printed up....maybe no person is involved...it's all computers....I don't know....wish I had some answers...maybe CLASS HANDICAPPER would know more...are there people involved in arriving at the Beyer figure and the Speed/ Variant number?
What you are asking for is confidential info as I see it because figure makers speed figures are made in part by historical anecdotal evidence as collected/computed by each figure maker.

You will probably get many interpretations on this forum of how the speed figure is calculated, but again this info is proprietary with figure maker ownership.

I would suggest if you like the speed figure concept you should find the figure maker that align best with your handicapping.

[Tom]

Beyer explains his method of making figs in great detail in several of his books.
Beyer on Speed and My $50,000 year at the Races are two good sources for this information.

[VigorsTheGrey]

What you are asking for is confidential info as I see it because figure makers speed figures are made in part by historical anecdotal evidence as collected/computed by each figure maker.

You will probably get many interpretations on this forum of how the speed figure is calculated, but again this info is proprietary with figure maker ownership.

I would suggest if you like the speed figure concept you should find the figure maker that align best with your handicapping.

This seasons' rendition of the San Juan Cap is interesting here...First ever turf race at 15 furlongs at Santa Anita....How would anyone set a Beyer figure for this this race? The fraction seemed real slow but I doubt if one of the new pace icons will be applied to the race...seems race is more an anomaly that anything else....but if could provide a window on how the three figures are arrived at....I would suspect that the DRF would just suspend their ordinary functions in this special case....but I really don't know.....I guess I would like to know if the three speed and pace functions are thru programming instantaneously arrived at by virtue of pre-programming that just needs a final time to execute the function of the calculation....just a wierd question that's all....

[pandy]

I am not really clear about how all of this happens...who is doing the comparing? Does the DRF have people watching the track crews? How is the track variant reported? To whom and when? Changes in the racing surface are totally part of what the Beyer speed figures will be...I guess I'm interested in the process of how the figures are arrived at from the moment when the winner crosses the finish line to when the Form is printed up....maybe no person is involved...it's all computers....I don't know....wish I had some answers...maybe CLASS HANDICAPPER would know more...are there people involved in arriving at the Beyer figure and the Speed/ Variant number?


The process has been covered pretty thoroughly in other threads with input by several of us and particularly CJ, who does the Timeform speed figures, provided excellent info on this. The track variant is not reported, it's either made up manually by a handicapper or, in the case of Bris and Equibase, the computer makes up the variant. Normally you either use average track times (pars) to make a variant or you project the time that you think each race should go and compare that. But there's more to it, such as using different variants for routes/sprints (because of wind, for instance, which could slow down two turn races more than one turn races), changing weather conditions, etc.

It's all just an educated guess and in my opinion, no matter who does the speed figures, they will have some bad variants and some bad speed figures. I did speed figures for about 10 years.

[VigorsTheGrey]

The process has been covered pretty thoroughly in other threads with input by several of us and particularly CJ, who does the Timeform speed figures, provided excellent info on this. The track variant is not reported, it's either made up manually by a handicapper or, in the case of Bris and Equibase, the computer makes up the variant. Normally you either use average track times (pars) to make a variant or you project the time that you think each race should go and compare that. But there's more to it, such as using different variants for routes/sprints (because of wind, for instance, which could slow down two turn races more than one turn races), changing weather conditions, etc.

It's all just an educated guess and in my opinion, no matter who does the speed figures, they will have some bad variants and some bad speed figures. I did speed figures for about 10 years.

Just think it would be nice to know the figures as soon as they are known or arrived at...like Beyers for Liberal Limousine, Anola Grey, and Big Casablanca, and Exxagerator.....It would be cool if the variant was made known at race time because somebody must know it right after the race otherwise how could they keep track of changing surface conditions like we saw sat and sun at Santa Anita?

[PaceAdvantage]

It would be cool if the variant was made known at race time because somebody must know it right after the race otherwise how could they keep track of changing surface conditions like we saw sat and sun at Santa Anita?You have much to learn.

[VigorsTheGrey]

You have much to learn.

I'm just thinking there's a disconnect between the qualitative terms like fast, wet-fast, sloppy, good, muddy...and the quantitative variant....when a patron arrives at the track, they are greeted with the above terms without any numerical significance attached to them...

I have heard from some that a wet-fast track is actually faster than a fast track but I don't know if that is true or not...so along with the terms above it would be useful at race time to understand what these terms really mean in terms of some sort of numerical standard...e.g., minus 5, minus 10, etc...

I guess I could get educated about what track maintenance goals are and how they are implemented in adverse weather conditions, and the impact of the various machine effects...to their credit I thought that Santa Anita did an amazing job with the racing surface over the weekend!

[pandy]

I'm just thinking there's a disconnect between the qualitative terms like fast, wet-fast, sloppy, good, muddy...and the quantitative variant....when a patron arrives at the track, they are greeted with the above terms without any numerical significance attached to them...

I have heard from some that a wet-fast track is actually faster than a fast track but I don't know if that is true or not...so along with the terms above it would be useful at race time to understand what these terms really mean in terms of some sort of numerical standard...e.g., minus 5, minus 10, etc...

I guess I could get educated about what track maintenance goals are and how they are implemented in adverse weather conditions, and the impact of the various machine effects...to their credit I thought that Santa Anita did an amazing job with the racing surface over the weekend!


I didn't watch many races from Santa Anita yesterday but I did think that they did a good job with the sloppy sealed track on Saturday. So did Aqueduct. NYRA does great work with the tracks and wet tracks. Santa Anita has a lot to prove, their tracks have been horrible the last 15 years or so. Del Mar had some terrible meets as did Santa Anita, but it seems like they may finally be figuring out how to groom a racetrack.

But on the subject of variants, the variant usually isn't computed until after all of the races have been run. Basically you assign a plus or minus variant to each race and then average them out and that's your variant. However, some figure makers believe that you can have a separate individual variant for each race, which to me makes no sense. I used to have two dirt variants, one for routes and one for sprints, although on one turn tracks, these were usually similar.

Keep in mind, the variant doesn't just give you an indication of how fast or slow the surface was. The surface could actually be about par (average) in speed but the variant could be a second slow because the wind slowed the horses down. This happens a lot at Aqueduct. A severe tailwind means a headwind down the backstretch, so the horses are running into the wind, which slows down the early fractions, sometimes considerably. Even though the wind is at their back in the stretch, by that time they are not running their fastest anyway, so the end result can be that the final time is slower than normal because of the slow early fractions. The variant will then show that the track was slow that day, when in fact, the times were slowed by the wind.

[whodoyoulike]

I am not really clear about how all of this happens...who is doing the comparing? Does the DRF have people watching the track crews? How is the track variant reported? To whom and when? Changes in the racing surface are totally part of what the Beyer speed figures will be...I guess I'm interested in the process of how the figures are arrived at from the moment when the winner crosses the finish line to when the Form is printed up....maybe no person is involved...it's all computers....I don't know....wish I had some answers...maybe CLASS HANDICAPPER would know more...are there people involved in arriving at the Beyer figure and the Speed/ Variant number?

As Tom mentioned the Beyer figure methodology is explained in his books. Uncertain if it still is calculated exactly the same way since the books are 30 +/- years old. But, I remember Beyer writing that he had a team of analysts following the same process covering different tracks and/or circuits.

[VigorsTheGrey]

As Tom mentioned the Beyer figure methodology is explained in his books. Uncertain if it still is calculated exactly the same way since the books are 30 +/- years old. But, I remember Beyer writing that he had a team of analysts following the same process covering different tracks and/or circuits.

I'm really in the dark about the process now and before.....but I really don't think there are teams of analysts at all the tracks...I presume it is automated such that the Beyer number for each finisher is calculated in the same time frame as, say the Equibase charts are completed...I haven't heard or read WHEN the Beyer figure, speed rating/ variant number, and now the 4 pace icons are actually first known after the race....

I would think the time frame is short but I don't know...and the info is just stored until print review time....why all this matters, I don't know, just curious about how things work in the real world...

[whodoyoulike]

I'm really in the dark about the process now and before.....but I really don't think there are teams of analysts at all the tracks...I presume it is automated such that the Beyer number for each finisher is calculated in the same time frame as, say the Equibase charts are completed...I haven't heard or read WHEN the Beyer figure, speed rating/ variant number, and now the 4 pace icons are actually first known after the race....

I would think the time frame is short but I don't know...and the info is just stored until print review time....why all this matters, I don't know, just curious about how things work in the real world...

I think he has an analyst covering NY races, another Florida, and another covering California etc. Or, maybe one covers both NY and Florida etc. Again, his books were good reads and I do recommend them at least Beyer on Speed which I've read there was another but can't recall and is longer in my library of books. It's been awhile but I think each day's worth of BF were comparable over each of the tracks. So, an 80 on a certain day for 6f at SA was equal to a performance of an 80 at Aqu and at TBD. Again, it's been years since I read about it and may have misunderstood it the first time.

Which is the reason my interpretation of utilizing BF was noting the trend of each horse's performance over time rather than comparing Horse A's 80 on April 1 with Horse B's 80 on Sept 30 of last year.

[cj]

I'm really in the dark about the process now and before.....but I really don't think there are teams of analysts at all the tracks...I presume it is automated such that the Beyer number for each finisher is calculated in the same time frame as, say the Equibase charts are completed...I haven't heard or read WHEN the Beyer figure, speed rating/ variant number, and now the 4 pace icons are actually first known after the race....

I would think the time frame is short but I don't know...and the info is just stored until print review time....why all this matters, I don't know, just curious about how things work in the real world...

Buy Picking Winners. You can find it for five bucks.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Buy Picking Winners. You can find it for five bucks.

My friend uses the Winner's Choice and he seems to like it alot...I think it is based on BRIS data...that might be a good place for me to start...while I learn about all the factors to pace and speed figures...Thank you.

Picking Winners is the book by Andy Beyer right?

[Cratos]

I'm really in the dark about the process now and before.....but I really don't think there are teams of analysts at all the tracks...I presume it is automated such that the Beyer number for each finisher is calculated in the same time frame as, say the Equibase charts are completed...I haven't heard or read WHEN the Beyer figure, speed rating/ variant number, and now the 4 pace icons are actually first known after the race....

I would think the time frame is short but I don't know...and the info is just stored until print review time....why all this matters, I don't know, just curious about how things work in the real world...
You shouldn't be in the "dark" about the process because it is a methodology and not a science.

You are correct, each post race surface should be accessed because there are 3 primary factors that affects the racing surface: 1. Maintenance, 2. Environment, and 3. Use.

Therefore a race track surface is never "fast' or "slow", because it is a static entity; a track surface is resistance.

The racehorse's motion (speed) is either fast or slow relative to the applied force it exerts to move its mass against the surface resistivity.

The so-called "variant" will changed by the aforementioned factors above.

There is a great publication entitled "Racing Surfaces" written by a professor from the University of Maine and have been well received by the racetrack community according to the Blood-Horse magazine.

Also there is another study conducted by some professors from the U of Cal at Santa Clara on Ground Reaction Force (GRF) by the racehorse during the race.

Again, you shouldn't be in the "dark"; just do some research.

[VigorsTheGrey]

I didn't watch many races from Santa Anita yesterday but I did think that they did a good job with the sloppy sealed track on Saturday. So did Aqueduct. NYRA does great work with the tracks and wet tracks. Santa Anita has a lot to prove, their tracks have been horrible the last 15 years or so. Del Mar had some terrible meets as did Santa Anita, but it seems like they may finally be figuring out how to groom a racetrack.

But on the subject of variants, the variant usually isn't computed until after all of the races have been run. Basically you assign a plus or minus variant to each race and then average them out and that's your variant. However, some figure makers believe that you can have a separate individual variant for each race, which to me makes no sense. I used to have two dirt variants, one for routes and one for sprints, although on one turn tracks, these were usually similar.

Keep in mind, the variant doesn't just give you an indication of how fast or slow the surface was. The surface could actually be about par (average) in speed but the variant could be a second slow because the wind slowed the horses down. This happens a lot at Aqueduct. A severe tailwind means a headwind down the backstretch, so the horses are running into the wind, which slows down the early fractions, sometimes considerably. Even though the wind is at their back in the stretch, by that time they are not running their fastest anyway, so the end result can be that the final time is slower than normal because of the slow early fractions. The variant will then show that the track was slow that day, when in fact, the times were slowed by the wind.

So is it indeed the case that all the dirt races at, for example, Santa Anita on April 10, 2016, (yesterday) will show in future DRF PP's,on the running line for each horse that raced on dirt that day, a common track variant number?

So that if Race 1 was FAST, then the rain fell and made the rest of the day's dirt races SLOPPY, then the individually accessed races, each with their own peculiar maintenance, environment, and use factors...and peculiar track variant...

...will then be compiled together, and then averaged, to arrive at the variant number used for ALL dirt races at Santa Anita that day? Is that how it works?

[elhelmete]

I believe the DRF website explains (somewhere) exactly how their variant is made.

[VigorsTheGrey]

I believe the DRF website explains (somewhere) exactly how their variant is made.

The DRF website does mention that the track variant is for all the races per distance per surface per day. It also mentions that the lower the track variant the faster the track, or the better the competition for that day!

That last part is sort of strange cause there obviously could be two 6 furlong races, a low claimer and a Stakes race, one with poor competition, the other with high level competition and this somehow gets averaged out.

Not a perfect system but I guess it works better if there are more similar races at more similar quality levels...some tracks condition books are like this, others are not...apples and oranges?

[Tom]

Buy the freaking book.

[pandy]

So is it indeed the case that all the dirt races at, for example, Santa Anita on April 10, 2016, (yesterday) will show in future DRF PP's,on the running line for each horse that raced on dirt that day, a common track variant number?

So that if Race 1 was FAST, then the rain fell and made the rest of the day's dirt races SLOPPY, then the individually accessed races, each with their own peculiar maintenance, environment, and use factors...and peculiar track variant...

...will then be compiled together, and then averaged, to arrive at the variant number used for ALL dirt races at Santa Anita that day? Is that how it works?


That's different. If it rains and the track changes from fast to sloppy there will be more than one variant, one for before the rain and one for after the rain. But most days that's not necessary.

[cj]

My friend uses the Winner's Choice and he seems to like it alot...I think it is based on BRIS data...that might be a good place for me to start...while I learn about all the factors to pace and speed figures...Thank you.

Picking Winners is the book by Andy Beyer right?

I recommended the book because you seem to ask a lot of questions about speed figures. It is a great starting point and will answer the questions you asked here.

What "Winner's Choice" is I have no idea so I can't say if it would help you understand speed figures or not. I can tell you the printed variant you have switched to has nothing at all to do with Beyer speed figures.

[cj]

http://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listing/0395701325/ref=tmm_pap_used_olp_sr?ie=UTF8&condition=used&qid=&sr=

$0.93 in very good condition.

[garyscpa]

Let's be very be clear, the speed of any moving object (man, animal, or machine) is a function of the environment of the occurrence of the object's motion.

Having said that, each figure-maker have their own way of developing his/her figures.

I couldn't have said it better myself. :D

[castaway01]

I couldn't have said it better myself. :D

He definitely has a keen grasp of the obvious.

[VigorsTheGrey]

You shouldn't be in the "dark" about the process because it is a methodology and not a science.

You are correct, each post race surface should be accessed because there are 3 primary factors that affects the racing surface: 1. Maintenance, 2. Environment, and 3. Use.

Therefore a race track surface is never "fast' or "slow", because it is a static entity; a track surface is resistance.

The racehorse's motion (speed) is either fast or slow relative to the applied force it exerts to move its mass against the surface resistivity.

The so-called "variant" will changed by the aforementioned factors above.

There is a great publication entitled "Racing Surfaces" written by a professor from the University of Maine and have been well received by the racetrack community according to the Blood-Horse magazine.

Also there is another study conducted by some professors from the U of Cal at Santa Clara on Ground Reaction Force (GRF) by the racehorse during the race.

Again, you shouldn't be in the "dark"; just do some research.

I really like your post above....it really opened up the subject for me. It only occurred to me by your post that the racing surface is static, is resistance. This makes perfect sense to me and points to your scientific education or background to describe what we see out there in these terms. Even if the surface is in flux and changing in amounts of moisture retained, it is still a static entity as the horses race through it...and air and wind is resistance also, so in a very real sense, the equine performers are literally "swimming" through the environment.

I think this is why a horse's confirmation matters so much in different "marine" environments...Jockey Kent D. recently said how much Exxagerator "Enjoyed" the off-track on Saturday April 9, 2016. I'd like to take a look at this colts' hooves versus other more confirmed fast track performers. Recent maiden winner Enola Gray also has an interesting confirmation...these two horses would make for an informative side-by-side confirmation inspection....

[Cratos]

I really like your post above....it really opened up the subject for me. It only occurred to me by your post that the racing surface is static, is resistance. This makes perfect sense to me and points to your scientific education or background to describe what we see out there in these terms. Even if the surface is in flux and changing in amounts of moisture retained, it is still a static entity as the horses race through it...and air and wind is resistance also, so in a very real sense, the equine performers are literally "swimming" through the environment.

I think this is why a horse's confirmation matters so much in different "marine" environments...Jockey Kent D. recently said how much Exxagerator "Enjoyed" the off-track on Saturday April 9, 2016. I'd like to take a look at this colts' hooves versus other more confirmed fast track performers. Recent maiden winner Enola Gray also has an interesting confirmation...these two horses would make for an informative side-by-side confirmation inspection....
I am glad you got something from my post because it is sometimes difficult to explain this concept without using the calculus of physics.

I have taken this concept to the stage of integrating mathematically all of the coefficients of resistance for surface, wind, and air; and derived SAWRA which stands for surface-air-wind resistance adjustment.