Does Exaggerator flatter Nyquist?

[PowerUpPaynter]

Does Exaggerator's performance yesterday make Nyquist look that much stronger since Nyquist beat him twice? Or do you think that fact that he looked like he was shot out of a cannon was more visually impressive due to the hot pace burning out anyone near the front?

If Swipe runs a huge race next week. Again does that flatter Nyquist?

[Spiderman]

Exaggerator's win on a muddy track flatters . . . Exaggerator on a muddy track with pace in front.

Brody's Cause win on a fair surface flatters Nyquist who bested him in the BC Juvenile on the same surface.

[PowerUpPaynter]

I just keep trying to lie to myself that Nyquist isnt going to win the derby. Find that harder to believe each week. Hope he draws the 1 post

[Spiderman]

Another pace player, Outwork, was added to the Derby mix. That could add to Nyquist's task. I agree that the 1 post is a toss.

[Robert Fischer]

I haven't been feeling well enough to dig into the horses like I normally do.

I do seem to remember that in one of the Exaggerator vs. Nyquist races, Exaggerator made a huge premature move(which cost him lengths/helped Nyquist) and finished surprisingly well.

Exaggerator may be a better horse than he is getting credit for being, and he may have truly been much the best horse coming into the Santa Anita Derby.
I can't say without putting in the work.

As far as flattery goes, Nyquist fans are in no need of such blandishments.

Their contrasting running styles and race shape preferences/projections will matter more come May.

[boys at tosconova]

regardless if he does/doesn't

Exaggerator was in full beast mode in the SA. the horse moved like a machine

[PowerUpPaynter]

regardless if he does/doesn't

Exaggerator was in full beast mode in the SA. the horse moved like a machine


yes however it was more visually impressive due to how tired out the front was from the blazing pace in the slop

[f2tornado]

yes however it was more visually impressive due to how tired out the front was from the blazing pace in the slop

Perhaps, but Exaggerator closed in 37.6 which is fast regardless of pace condition. I've never played the "flatter" idea. Every race is different. Nyquist beat him in a sprint but Nyquist pedigree screams long sprint. Not to say he can't win longer as proven against weak company/poor Mohaymen outing on an off track in Florida. I suspect Nyquist would have been destroyed back at SA too.

[boys at tosconova]

danzing candy was driven like he was the best...plan was simple..go to the front and don't look back..they went fast, but i would have liked to of seen more grit from the horse..

unfortunately,...he wasn't the best. and exaggerator looked like he had a turbo. obv the fast pace helped him,..but it looks like he could have won by 10L if he wanted to..so i think he might of won regardless

[Robert Fischer]

Exaggerator got a dream trip in the SA Derby, but I think(entering the race) he was better than most thought, and may well have been the best horse in the race.
He's interesting in the Derby where there can be horses tiring due to pace and distance. Solid, must-use in the underneath tickets, and probably doesn't offer a TON of value.


Smokey Image could be an overlay in the right spot wherever he ends up next. Smokey Image got a nightmare trip in the SA Derby.

[boys at tosconova]

Exaggerator got a dream trip in the SA Derby, but I think(entering the race) he was better than most thought, and may well have been the best horse in the race.
He's interesting in the Derby where there can be horses tiring due to pace and distance. Solid, must-use in the underneath tickets, and probably doesn't offer a TON of value.


Smokey Image could be an overlay in the right spot wherever he ends up next. Smokey Image got a nightmare trip in the SA Derby.

i think the derby payouts are pretty good everywhere because of the large pools. even w/ the fav's...

[Robert Fischer]

i think the derby payouts are pretty good everywhere because of the large pools. even w/ the fav's...

For sure. If you can zero-in a little bit, and actually hit a winning Derby ticket it's going to be a good return and a great thrill.

Animal Kingdom and American Pharoah both paid out pretty good.
Animal Kingdom wasn't a horse that the general public all had on their win-contender list, and there were subjective factors(pedigree, surface in this case) that required handicapping judgment.

I'll take a winning ticket in either case, but it's nice to have some opinions on value, and it's nice to have a couple contenders with astronomical value.

_________
Are you talking running style or how he'll get over dirt? His pedigree is as grassy as it gets and he's been most effective when he is allowed to settle early and rally.

I don't think he's going to transfer well to dirt.

He looks versatile to me, and yes I've studied his pedigree. Certainly unorthodox for a dirt surface, with good turf horses in it, but AK will be ok.
Following this horse, he seems to be the type who will professionally "deal with" running on the dirt, even if it may be his 3rd best surface. The fact that there are 20 horses and it's a 10furlong race are as favorable as the surface will be detrimental.
With the pedigree that he has, I think many are thinking he is shipping to churchill for a gallop and a saturday work as a doubtful surface test. He's preparing for the race.
Not calling him the derby winner, I'm just saying he will be Animal Kingdom in the derby.
He doesn't have the speed to contest the pace. His dream trip would be getting a decent moderately inside post and being allowed to settle in the deep part of the pocket. He looks to handle the gate, contact, traffic, kickback ... and the surface.

_____
THis is one of the strongest Derby fields I can recall in a long time.


I agree, this is a strong crop.

In a normal year, a horse like Carpe Diem, or Dortmund, would be a worthy favorite.

If any horse wins the triple crown again, it will be very special because of the difficulty and rarity alone. If American Pharoah wins the triple crown this year, it will really stamp him among the modern greats.

[burnsy]

Exaggerator's win on a muddy track flatters . . . Exaggerator on a muddy track with pace in front.

Brody's Cause win on a fair surface flatters Nyquist who bested him in the BC Juvenile on the same surface.

I thought the same exact thing. Plus, Nyquist has won every race, how much flattering does he need? At this point, the way you bet against this horse is thinking he may get caught at 10 furlongs. If the pace is quick there's a chance he will get caught up in it and some of these horses pressed the issue this weekend, with another round to still come.

I agree about the muddy track too.......you got to question that race a little and the one in NY too. The one at Santa Anita even more. The conditions at both places were shaky and the early pace was fast.