update on final fractions

[sbcaris]

The following are those horses that qualify so far on final fractions for final 3/8:

Nyquest----------37 4/5 Florida Derby
Exaggeratpr -----37 3/5 SA Derby
Brody's Cause----37 3/5 Blue Grass
My Man Sam-----37 3/5 Blue Grass
Cherry Wine------37 4/5 Blue Grass

One more big 5 prep to be run---- the Ark Derby next Saturday.

Nobody from the Wood Memorial qualified on final 3/8 time.

[whodoyoulike]

I'm guessing this an angle of yours for the KD.

Assuming these are the only ones, how do you separate further?

Or, do you bet all or most of these five?

[sbcaris]

I use an 8 factor checklist to determine who comes out the best, second best and third best etc. The final fraction angle is one of the 8 basic indicators.

[Huddy Goodjob]

Will you share the others?

[PowerUpPaynter]

I use an 8 factor checklist to determine who comes out the best, second best and third best etc. The final fraction angle is one of the 8 basic indicators.


whats been your success rate? How long have you been doing this?

cheers

[PowerUpPaynter]

The following are those horses that qualify so far on final fractions for final 3/8:

Nyquest----------37 4/5 Florida Derby
Exaggeratpr -----37 3/5 SA Derby
Brody's Cause----37 3/5 Blue Grass
My Man Sam-----37 3/5 Blue Grass
Cherry Wine------37 4/5 Blue Grass

One more big 5 prep to be run---- the Ark Derby next Saturday.

Nobody from the Wood Memorial qualified on final 3/8 time.


this is a great angle but i wonder if there is a way to take it further...

let me try to explain, hard for me to put it into words...

is there a way to come up with a formula that would equate the final 3/8 to the pace of the race.

If you take 2 horses lets say and both run the final 3/8 in 37 4/5 but horse A ran a 23 and 48 first 1/2 mile and horse B ran 24 3/5 and 48 4/5 then wouldnt horse A's 27 4/5 be more impressive?

Furthermore lets say the races are at 2 different tracks and horse A gets a 104 beyer and horse B gets a 96 beyer. Again wouldnt horse A's 37 4/5 be more impressive?


Just a thought, its a great angle. It fits 12 of the 16 Derby winners this century. (14 of 16 38 flat or under) Not trying to poop on anyones parade.

[PowerUpPaynter]

What do you make of Mo Tom going 38 1/5 while being stopped not once but TWICE... I think Mo Tom is landing somewhere in the super after the scolding the jockey took he will go as wide as needed to stay in the clear. Combine that with some front end speed. Dont think he can win the race but everything else is on the table.

[SecretAgentMan]

What do you make of Mo Tom going 38 1/5 while being stopped not once but TWICE... I think Mo Tom is landing somewhere in the super after the scolding the jockey took he will go as wide as needed to stay in the clear. Combine that with some front end speed. Dont think he can win the race but everything else is on the table.




I think there will be a hot pace in this years derby, which will benefit all the closers. Borel is the only jockey that can get the email & win. Monarchos & Giacomo both went very wide.

If you have a deep closer in a 20 horse field, the last place you want to be is along the rail. If you have the horse, you can go wide & still win.

Mo Tom has talent, but he keeps getting into trouble, & I always throw out troubled horses, they don't do well in the KD.

[f2tornado]

First, Tom is 18th in points and could be knocked out if the right horses hit the board in the Ark. If he does survive the bubble then he has to survive a trip with a lot more horses. He might have to go way wide on the last turn. I don't see any big standouts this year like AP, Chrome, and Orb the previous so if you like the guy then throw a $20 on it or plug into exotics.

[whodoyoulike]

this is a great angle but i wonder if there is a way to take it further...

If you take 2 horses lets say and both run the final 3/8 in 37 4/5 but horse A ran a 23 and 48 first 1/2 mile and horse B ran 24 3/5 and 48 4/5 then wouldnt horse A's 27 4/5 be more impressive? ...

This was what I was wondering.

The Beyer's at this stage of development isn't as important for me since the last few years I've been using BRIS and am unaware of the Beyer figures for each horse.

[PowerUpPaynter]

also you gotta wonder what % of derby starters fit the under 38 mold? Id bet this year is less then most cause its such a weak crop

[f2tornado]

also you gotta wonder what % of derby starters fit the under 38 mold? Id bet this year is less then most cause its such a weak crop

They have made up around 30% of starters through the years but excludes anything other than FL, Ark, SA, Wood, and Bluegrass. That is five to six starters per year and they win about 70% of the time. The ROI is around $2.80 or 40% if you bet every one to win every year. I think there are five so far this year: Nyquist, Exaggerator, Brody's Cause, My Man Sam, and Cherry Wine. Cherry Wine doesn't make the gate without significant help. Perhaps we add one or two from the Ark but I'm not planning on it unless Suddenbreakingnews can stay out of trouble. Always the chance it is one of those 3 in 10 years when something else hits. Most of these off year hits were courtesy of Raise A Native sire line. There's your Gun Runner.

[Cratos]

The following are those horses that qualify so far on final fractions for final 3/8:

Nyquest----------37 4/5 Florida Derby
Exaggeratpr -----37 3/5 SA Derby
Brody's Cause----37 3/5 Blue Grass
My Man Sam-----37 3/5 Blue Grass
Cherry Wine------37 4/5 Blue Grass

One more big 5 prep to be run---- the Ark Derby next Saturday.

Nobody from the Wood Memorial qualified on final 3/8 time.
I am not understanding what you are suggesting.

Therefore is it energy in the last 3/8m and did you use Equibase data or Trakus data?

Furthermore, path position is critical in the last 3/8m because that portion of the race begins in the far turn heading for home and acceleration is very difficult; especially at Churchill Downs with its tight turns.

[sbcaris]

Cratos: You asked what am I suggesting with the above fractional times.

Final Fractions indicate how fast a horse runs in the last part of a race and in my opinion is the best indicator for predicting how he will run when the distances are longer. There is no guarantee it will be successful all the time, however, my research has shown that in the last 43 years there were 30 Derby winners that fit my final fraction indicator. That's 69.7% of the winners since 1973. Since the percent of starters qualifying on this indicator is 29.2% the impact value for this factor is a very strong 2.39 which means that horses qualifying on this angle are winning the roses more than twice as often as statistical expectation.

The above indicator is one of my 8 indicators for handicapping the Ky Derby. If interested my book-Analyzing The Triple Crown- contains several indicators that achieve high impact values in all three legs of the Triple Crown.

American Turf Monthly is selling my above book as part of a package which includes checklists for all three Triple Crown Races, My selections for each race and my comments for each race. The checklists and my comments and longshot selections will be emailed to you on the Thursday before each Triple Crown event. American Turf Monthly's phone is 1-800-645-2240.

Stan Caris sbcaris@comcast.net

[kevb]

What do you make of Mo Tom going 38 1/5 while being stopped not once but TWICE...

I agree it was in impressive finish by Mo Tom. I think he has a good chance to win the Derby, and will be a little under the radar. My top choices: Nyquist, Exaggerator, Mo Tom. I have Danzing Candy in the Future Pool at 17-1, but after The SA Derby fiasco, he might be more than that on Derby Day. Fun time of year.

[CincyHorseplayer]

That 12.6 final 8th by My Man Sam is eye catching. I like the pedigree and as one of the least accomplished horses in the Derby will be a big price. I simply can't ignore on Derby day how great Nyquist and now Exaggerator have run. That contengent that started at SA is unreal. Big move vs a fast pace is EXACTLY what you want to see regarding derby potential even in slop. The horse showed potential elsewhere. I'm thinking Brody is a Keeneland phenomenon and that was a drying out track to boot which makes his 2nd in both categories. So for the moment my bets are revolving around Mohaymen and MMS and the top SA 2, to a lesser degree Destin, Cherry Wine, BC. Worse case scenario is obviously a Nyquist with either Mohaymen/Exaggerator finish.If you can get 2 of those 3 out of the exacta it could provide some bang. As a betting race this Derby for me is a B-/C+ at best. Enough low odds horses that have a chance to slice payoffs down from score of a lifetime to normal payoffs IMO. This could be a standout Derby for those that love chalk and attaboys! :cool:

[f2tornado]

That 12.6 final 8th by My Man Sam is eye catching. I like the pedigree and as one of the least accomplished horses in the Derby will be a big price. I simply can't ignore on Derby day how great Nyquist and now Exaggerator have run... If you can get 2 of those 3 out of the exacta it could provide some bang. As a betting race this Derby for me is a B-/C+ at best. Enough low odds horses that have a chance to slice payoffs down from score of a lifetime to normal payoffs IMO. This could be a standout Derby for those that love chalk and attaboys! :cool:

Agree on Sam. He's got a decent female side. Cherry Wine needs help to get in so might not have to worry about him. Even if the favorite wins you can still collect a mammoth trifecta. The Chrome trifecta paid 1700-1. The Orb trifecta paid 1500-1. You just need a goofball in the place pool to upset the applecart. If your exacta and trifecta wagers don't include at least one goofball underneath then you're doing it wrong (in most years). Want a strong bet? Take your favorite horse and wheel over 10 others for the trifecta. A 50 cent wager costs $36. You can wheel two horses over same two plus six others for $42... Or three over same three plus four others for $45. Have a couple well bred or fast closing bombers in there for a possible four figure payout. Worst case scenario you lose $40 or win a small fry and a coke like last year.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Agree on Sam. He's got a decent female side. Cherry Wine needs help to get in so might not have to worry about him. Even if the favorite wins you can still collect a mammoth trifecta. The Chrome trifecta paid 1700-1. The Orb trifecta paid 1500-1. You just need a goofball in the place pool to upset the applecart. If your exacta and trifecta wagers don't include at least one goofball underneath then you're doing it wrong (in most years). Want a strong bet? Take your favorite horse and wheel over 10 others for the trifecta. A 50 cent wager costs $36. You can wheel two horses over same two plus six others for $42... Or three over same three plus four others for $45. Have a couple well bred or fast closing bombers in there for a possible four figure payout. Worst case scenario you lose $40 or win a small fry and a coke like last year.

Let's get Orb out of that arbitrary category of favorite. To me it's not about the generic concept of favorite but divided upon odds lines. For the Derby I would put it at under 4-1 and 4-1 and over. Orb represented a great bet on the over. CC to me did not. And similarly any horse on the under does not. But it doesn't affect that I will some B tickets with those horses over whatever selections I make. I hear you about needing that longshot in there. Right at this very second with kindergarten thought devoted to it all I'm not sure I can see a giant payoff resulting unless my closer longshot gets 1st or 2nd in My Man Sam.(Note this is not my Derby bet but early speculation)

A)-Nyquist-Mohaymen-Exaggerator-My Man Sam(4)

B)Destin-Mor Spirit-Gun Runner-Outwork(4)

C)Danzing Candy-Brody's Cause-Cupid-Greenpointcrusader-Whitmore-Cherry Wine-Mo Tom-(7)

Right now I would bet a cover ticket like:

1st)Mohaymen-My Man Sam(2)

2nd)Mohaymen-My Man Sam-Nyquist-Exaggerator(x3)

3rd)All(x13)

78 combinations

A saver ticket like this.

1st)Nyquist-Exaggerator

2nd)Mohaymen-My Man Sam

3rd)All AB's(8)

24 combinations

Then I would use a last ticket hoping Nyquist doesn't win. This would be hopefully my money ticket.

1st)Mohaymen-Exaggerator-My Man Sam(3)

2nd)Nyquist-Mohaymen-Exaggerator-My Man Sam(x3)

3rd)Nyquist-Mohaymen-Exaggerator-My Man Sam-Destin-Mor Spirit-Gun Runner-Outwork(x6)

54 combinations

If Mohaymen fell under 4-1 with Nyquist I would probably focus my plays around Exaggerator and My Man Sam or not play at all.

[sbcaris]

Power Up Paynter: You asked what is my success rate and how long have I been doing this?

My 8 factor checklist was published in my book -Analyzing The Triple Crown- in March of 2013. Interestingly, since it was published my Derby Checklist got the winner Orb at 5-1 in 2013, it lost the Preakness of 2013 and lost the Belmont Stakes of 2013. My checklist selected the winner California Chrome in 2014, it selected the Preakness winner, Chrome in 2014 and it selected the Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist at 9-1 in 2014. In 2015 my checklist selected the winner, American Pharaoh in all three legs of the Triple Crown.

In 2014 I recommended to all my customers at American Turf Monthly a trifecta wheel keying Tonalist with 8 horses and also a superfecta wheel keying Tonalist with 8 horses. My selections in The trifecta came back a whopping $3,390 and that key with Tonalist produced two superfectas, one paying $580 and another around $370. (Chrome and Wicked Strong dead heated for fourth)

Of course when I developed my checklist factors I researched the past 19 runnings of the Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes to find out what factors worked the best over the last two decades. The factors I came up with all have powerful impact values and have proven successful in the three years that followed the publication of my book.

Of interest is the hit rate of my method. My checklist leader or second best point getter won the roses 14 times in the last 22 years.

My checklist leader or second best point getter won the Preakness 12 times in the last 22 years.

My checklist leader or second best point getter won the Belmont 15 times in the last 22 years.

In all three races my ROI is positive if you made a win wager on my top point getter and my second best point getter. The ROI in the Derby is over 200%. My ROI in the Preakness is only 23%. However, my ROI in the Belmont is well over 150% for all 22 years from 1994-2015.

[PowerUpPaynter]

im buying the book sure seems like you cracked the code

[CincyHorseplayer]

im buying the book sure seems like you cracked the code

Update from me. ATM Monthly never returned my call and while I found the book on their site there was no buy option for it. I'm still wanting to get this too.

[f2tornado]

im buying the book sure seems like you cracked the code

Worth the read but it's not the entire picture. It really opened my eyes on how many long shots really shouldn't be long shots. Stanley nailed the 2014 Belmont too which was a great score for those who bet it. I was pretty broke that day unfortunately.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Worth the read but it's not the entire picture. It really opened my eyes on how many long shots really shouldn't be long shots. Stanley nailed the 2014 Belmont too which was a great score for those who bet it. I was pretty broke that day unfortunately.

I had the tri because I keyed off of Medal Count in all 3 slots! I was half in the bag when it ran. What a fun day! :D

[Cratos]

Power Up Paynter: You asked what is my success rate and how long have I been doing this?

My 8 factor checklist was published in my book -Analyzing The Triple Crown- in March of 2013. Interestingly, since it was published my Derby Checklist got the winner Orb at 5-1 in 2013, it lost the Preakness of 2013 and lost the Belmont Stakes of 2013. My checklist selected the winner California Chrome in 2014, it selected the Preakness winner, Chrome in 2014 and it selected the Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist at 9-1 in 2014. In 2015 my checklist selected the winner, American Pharaoh in all three legs of the Triple Crown.

In 2014 I recommended to all my customers at American Turf Monthly a trifecta wheel keying Tonalist with 8 horses and also a superfecta wheel keying Tonalist with 8 horses. My selections in The trifecta came back a whopping $3,390 and that key with Tonalist produced two superfectas, one paying $580 and another around $370. (Chrome and Wicked Strong dead heated for fourth)

Of course when I developed my checklist factors I researched the past 19 runnings of the Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes to find out what factors worked the best over the last two decades. The factors I came up with all have powerful impact values and have proven successful in the three years that followed the publication of my book.

Of interest is the hit rate of my method. My checklist leader or second best point getter won the roses 14 times in the last 22 years.

My checklist leader or second best point getter won the Preakness 12 times in the last 22 years.

My checklist leader or second best point getter won the Belmont 15 times in the last 22 years.

In all three races my ROI is positive if you made a win wager on my top point getter and my second best point getter. The ROI in the Derby is over 200%. My ROI in the Preakness is only 23%. However, my ROI in the Belmont is well over 150% for all 22 years from 1994-2015.
I don't want to "pat myself on the back", but I had Orb as the Derby winner which I published on this forum and I had Tonalist which I published on this forum; each had a bag of "wooden nickels" wagered on it; I will add that I bought my '14 'Vette with my Orb's Derby winnings..

[Andrick]

Trakus has both Majesto (37.89, 12.84) and Fellowship (37.77, 12.90) running a sub 13 second final furlong and a sub 38 final three furlongs. I take it they're just missing the cut by your time measurement/calculation?

[sbcaris]

Here is my updated list so far for horses who raced the final 3/8 in 37 4/5 or less or the final eighth in 12 4/5 or less in a big 5 prep race:

Nyquist
Majesto
Fellowship
Exaggerator
Brody's Cause
My Man Sam
Cherry Wine

The above indicator has worked to get approximately 70% winners over the last 43 years. One must still note that the above indicator is just one indicator and not the whole picture. Furthermore, as an indicator it misses selecting the Derby winner approximately 30% of the time. It sometimes pays to look at non qualifiers on this angle that show other factors that might send them postcard as lucrative overlays. Once again, handicappers must be flexible in their decisions.

For example: I recommended Palace Malice to win the Belmont Stakes because he fit several other indicators but failed to qualify on my final fraction angle. He won that race at approximately 12-1 odds.

[SecretAgentMan]

Here is my updated list so far for horses who raced the final 3/8 in 37 4/5 or less or the final eighth in 12 4/5 or less in a big 5 prep race:

Nyquist
Majesto
Fellowship
Exaggerator
Brody's Cause
My Man Sam
Cherry Wine

The above indicator has worked to get approximately 70% winners over the last 43 years. One must still note that the above indicator is just one indicator and not the whole picture. Furthermore, as an indicator it misses selecting the Derby winner approximately 30% of the time. It sometimes pays to look at non qualifiers on this angle that show other factors that might send them postcard as lucrative overlays. Once again, handicappers must be flexible in their decisions.

For example: I recommended Palace Malice to win the Belmont Stakes because he fit several other indicators but failed to qualify on my final fraction angle. He won that race at approximately 12-1 odds.



Does that 70% angle fit any derby winners that didn't race in the 5 big prep races!

[sbcaris]

The 70% winners only includes horses that fit the indicator. The other 30% winners includes horses that did not fit the angle. By the way the angle includes a few other additional rules like NO polytrack or turf races are used and a horse must not lose ground from the 6 furlong point to the finish of his 9 furlong prep race that qualifies him on final time.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

The 70% winners only includes horses that fit the indicator. The other 30% winners includes horses that did not fit the angle. By the way the angle includes a few other additional rules like NO polytrack or turf races are used and a horse must not lose ground from the 6 furlong point to the finish of his 9 furlong prep race that qualifies him on final time.

If they can't lose ground, then how can 3 horses from a single race qualify? Wouldn't 1 of them be running faster than the others?

Also, My Man Sam passed Cherry Wine in the deep.stretch at/near the wire. Does that exclude Cherry Wine?

[CincyHorseplayer]

I don't want to "pat myself on the back", but I had Orb as the Derby winner which I published on this forum and I had Tonalist which I published on this forum; each had a bag of "wooden nickels" wagered on it; I will add that I bought my '14 'Vette with my Orb's Derby winnings..

That's awesome! Inspiring. Never bought a car with winnings but it would have topped out as a used Caddy! I did have that 14 Mustang Shelby GT500 in mind though. :cool:

[SecretAgentMan]

That's awesome! Inspiring. Never bought a car with winnings but it would have topped out as a used Caddy! I did have that 14 Mustang Shelby GT500 in mind though. :cool:



Would be nice to win & pay off an entire new car from winnings. As for hitting the triple, this may be the year to put 4 or 5 horses on top just in case. I like Gun Runner but will gave several others on top as well in Tris & supers.

[sbcaris]

Lemon Drop Husker: It does not matter who passes who in the stretch run. All that matters is the time it takes a particular horse to run the last 3/8 of a mile or last eighth of a mile.

In the Blue Grass the winner, Brodys Cause, the place finisher My Man Sam and the show horse Cherry Wine all ran their last 3 furlongs in time less than 38 seconds. Cherry Wine (37 4/5) ran slightly slower than My Man Sam (37 3/5). However, they both ran the last 3 furlongs in less than 38 seconds.

Once again it doesn't matter who passes who. Just the time counts for each horse.

To give an example: If you have Saturdays pps for the Bluegrass stakes you can see this in Star Hill's ops. He was 3 1/2 lengths behind the frontrunner at six furlongs and ended up 8 lengths behind Destin when they finished the race. Thats a loss of 4 1/2 lengths from 6 furlongs to the finish. When I see a horse lose ground of at least 2 lengths or more in the last 3 furlongs I am seeing a horse that has little probability of winning the roses. It has been done but only very rarely.