Adventist

[EMD4ME]

I liked this horse and bet him hard 1st out. He ran down a loose leader against a big speed bias.

He was green but super game in his 2nd start going straight to a stakes from his 1st out MD win. (and 1st time 2 turns)

He was against the bias last time the entire way and was STILL game.

Has huge upside. Not sure about winning the wood as he drew post 2 and is directly outside Shagaf. But may make some big noise in other big races.

[SecretAgentMan]

I don't like this horse at all. Good luck either way!

[f2tornado]

I don't like but won't knock much yet. I wouldn't expect this horse to win but wouldn't be shocked either since Adventist is one of the few Raise A Native contenders this year and perhaps the only female family 23b I have seen.

[f2tornado]

I don't like but won't knock much yet. I wouldn't expect this horse to win but wouldn't be shocked either since Adventist is one of the few Raise A Native contenders this year and perhaps the only female family 23b I have seen.

After further research, Shagaf is a 23b as well. These buggers have won about one in ten years and hit the board about one in five in recent decades. A few bombers too like Lil E Tee and Mine That Bird.

[Huddy Goodjob]

This is a sleeper who will go in the Derby the wise guy. Glad I got him early at
85-1.

[SecretAgentMan]

After further research, Shagaf is a 23b as well. These buggers have won about one in ten years and hit the board about one in five in recent decades. A few bombers too like Lil E Tee and Mine That Bird.



Lil E Tee was very playable w/o even looking at pedigree, & MTB, well, like Giacomo, you had to cap the race by ignoring the best horses going into the KD, which is hard to do.

[f2tornado]

Lil E Tee was very playable w/o even looking at pedigree, & MTB, well, like Giacomo, you had to cap the race by ignoring the best horses going into the KD, which is hard to do.

Giacomo would have been a real tough play unless you just bet rider Mike Smith or bet on closing fractions from SA Derby. MTB had the Raise A Native on both sides and was worth at least a token play in hindsight. RAN won 10 of the 15 previous Derby races. That was also seemingly a very weak field and Borel didn't hurt having won the race two years previous. I think I bet on Dunkirk that year who might still be on the far turn. MTB's 5.40 dosage figure was my primary negative. Lil E Tee had Pat Day. Enough said there.

I certainly would not be shocked to see a bomber hit this year. Nyquist has some negatives and nothing else is a true standout.

[burnsy]

Lil E Tee was very playable w/o even looking at pedigree, & MTB, well, like Giacomo, you had to cap the race by ignoring the best horses going into the KD, which is hard to do.


That's not hard, that's how I handicap every race. If you can't do that, you can't find a price. The first thing I do is look past the favorites when I handicap. I don't ignore them on my tickets if I think you gotta use them. But that's literally the first thing I do.......look for others that have a shot at a piece.....if they have that shot, that means they are a possible winner too.

Out of that dreadfully run Wood, and the way the track was, I think this horse could surprise people come Derby day if entered. He should handle the longer races and has room to get better. He's no stand out by any means but he's a sleepy, sleeper, for sure. Bombs away. The "best" horse is usually the favorite. they win one out of three, its a cinch for me to look past those for others too. What I like about him is the way he finished the race and being third, not many people will notice. I kind of hope he makes it.

[tanner12oz]

Lil E Tee was very playable w/o even looking at pedigree, & MTB, well, like Giacomo, you had to cap the race by ignoring the best horses going into the KD, which is hard to do.


That's not hard, that's how I handicap every race. If you can't do that, you can't find a price. The first thing I do is look past the favorites when I handicap. I don't ignore them on my tickets if I think you gotta use them. But that's literally the first thing I do.......look for others that have a shot at a piece.....if they have that shot, that means they are a possible winner too.

Out of that dreadfully run Wood, and the way the track was, I think this horse could surprise people come Derby day if entered. He should handle the longer races and has room to get better. He's no stand out by any means but he's a sleepy, sleeper, for sure. Bombs away. The "best" horse is usually the favorite. they win one out of three, its a cinch for me to look past those for others too. What I like about him is the way he finished the race and being third, not many people will notice. I kind of hope he makes it.

he appeared to mature in the wood but has been very green every other time out. Makes me a lil bit nervous going into a 20 horse race with 150k extended parades and stuff. Think the horse could be gassed before he even hits the gate

[boys at tosconova]

no doubt the horse will get the religious money. i wonder how many tens of thousands that might be. i can see it now..granny and all her church friends sitting in front of the TV w/ their 2 dolla tickets wanting to win in the name of god

[Bennie]

Then I guess if they all make the gate, the "holy Money" will be on Creator, Adventist, Mor Spirit and a little Fellowship thrown in

[SecretAgentMan]

Then I guess if they all make the gate, the "holy Money" will be on Creator, Adventist, Mor Spirit and a little Fellowship thrown in



If this super rolls in the way you posted it, it will be huge payouts. Creator is 76-1 offshore right now.

[Mc990]

I liked this horse and bet him hard 1st out. He ran down a loose leader against a big speed bias.

He was green but super game in his 2nd start going straight to a stakes from his 1st out MD win. (and 1st time 2 turns)

He was against the bias last time the entire way and was STILL game.

Has huge upside. Not sure about winning the wood as he drew post 2 and is directly outside Shagaf. But may make some big noise in other big races.

This horse needs to take another step forward but he has as good a chance as anyone in the field to do just that. Pedigree is in the discussion for best suited for 10f. Pattern looks very nice and against this bunch, a small improvement puts him right there with everyone outside of Destin and exaggerator.

Migliore mentioned on Steve byk's show prior to the wood that Adventist was finally coming into his own and he expected a big race from him. While the horse certainly ran his career best, it's also possible his true form is not expressed in his latest figure due to the track conditions.

Dangerous if he makes the field and trains forwardly...