what minimum Beyer # on any horse tomorrow...

[ribjig]

...makes you bet that horse to win KY Derby?
106? :ThmbUp: 110? :ThmbUp: 115? :ThmbUp: Need even bigger?
Ah, but the odds. What minimum odds, too...?
106 + 8/1?
110 + 4/1?
115 + 2/1?
Other combo?

[Huddy Goodjob]

102 Brisnet Speed...don't use Beyers.

10-1 or higher...its the Derby, can't take less.

Also a tri player...key on one and build.

[señorclipclop]

102 Brisnet Speed...don't use Beyers.

10-1 or higher...its the Derby, can't take less.

Also a tri player...key on one and build.

Agreed. May have to bump that down to a 100 BRIS this year.

[Huddy Goodjob]

If you're a Bris player you can't ignor Gun Runner. Very strong numbers.

104 speed fig
100 LP

Love that combo.

Not to mention his E2 numbers...

Has signs of a horse who can switch gears when called on, then settle and turn it on again when needed. That is the Derby style...long race, lots of legs on the ground...holes open and close...u got to be quick to get through them...you need a horse like that. Afleet Alex was like that...he just got burned up by that hot pace in his Derby...my thoughts, he would have won the Triple Crown if the points system was in play that year. Dummy sprinter running eyes out on the lead burned up anyone close...reason you saw Giacamo and Closing Argument come closing.

[Tom]

Average winning Beyer for a 3yo male at 9.0 furlongs in the spring, G1 or G2 is 101.

[f2tornado]

If you're a Bris player you can't ignor Gun Runner. Very strong numbers.

104 speed fig
100 LP

Love that combo.

Not to mention his E2 numbers...


Here is my concerns with Gun Runner. His final time was the slowest since the prep went to 9F in 2010. The 6F call was a modest at best 1:12.8. The final 3/8th was around 39 seconds. Most Derby winners will run that last 3/8th in final prep less in than 38 seconds. His Brisnet figure was a new top by 7 points. Does he continue to improve or does he bounce off that number? He has Storm Cat on dam side. AP broke that angle but AP was AP.

What I like. He is Raise A Native. That line has been discussed plenty here. He is female family 17b, Lygie in tail. That's a good one. He has a solid rider albeit one with less experience in this race. He passed my "eye test". Lastly, Fairgrounds horses have done well hitting the superfecta in recent years. I will use underneath on some tickets.

[SecretAgentMan]

Here is my concerns with Gun Runner. His final time was the slowest since the prep went to 9F in 2010. The 6F call was a modest at best 1:12.8. The final 3/8th was around 39 seconds. Most Derby winners will run that last 3/8th in final prep less in than 38 seconds. His Brisnet figure was a new top by 7 points. Does he continue to improve or does he bounce off that number? He has Storm Cat on dam side. AP broke that angle but AP was AP.

What I like. He is Raise A Native. That line has been discussed plenty here. He is female family 17b, Lygie in tail. That's a good one. He has a solid rider albeit one with less experience in this race. He passed my "eye test". Lastly, Fairgrounds horses have done well hitting the superfecta in recent years. I will use underneath on some tickets.



Times can be deceiving some years. Have you seen Animal Kingdoms times? He may win, he might not, but I like him. Let's see what happens in the 3 big prep races Saturday.

[Huddy Goodjob]

im not all in on GR, just one top contender as I weed out the pretenders.

Didn't that Storm Cat dam side fill the entire tri last years. Boy I felt like a maroon for using that angle.

This is the year I am throwing out a lot of data I used in years past to gauge my derby horses. Dosage and others...it's a wide open race...I even have a Appolo horse I'm rooting for. I never do that...and the only 4 races angle, toss that as well. Think anything can happen this year...just got to find those ones who want to go long and got the wind...separate those from the milers.

Think GR will go long for sure. Is an Alpha at that...not shy from others. Have sneaking feeling we will see the La Derby horses fill much of the super.

[f2tornado]

Times can be deceiving some years. Have you seen Animal Kingdoms times? He may win, he might not, but I like him. Let's see what happens in the 3 big prep races Saturday.

Yep. Animal Kingdom ran a pretty slow spiral. I think people tossed him because of the poly and him barely getting the gate more than anything. I didn't like the Nasrullah non Bold Ruler line myself and in hindsight probably still wouldn't bet him despite learning many new angles since then. Gun Runner fits my mold other than a slightly slow final 3/8th (I said 39s but closer to 38s) and the odd 6 week break going into the big dance. I just wonder if that big Brisnet bump is the real deal or he slips. I'll definitely use underneath.

[SecretAgentMan]

im not all in on GR, just one top contender as I weed out the pretenders.

Didn't that Storm Cat dam side fill the entire tri last years. Boy I felt like a maroon for using that angle.

This is the year I am throwing out a lot of data I used in years past to gauge my derby horses. Dosage and others...it's a wide open race...I even have a Appolo horse I'm rooting for. I never do that...and the only 4 races angle, toss that as well. Think anything can happen this year...just got to find those ones who want to go long and got the wind...separate those from the milers.

Think GR will go long for sure. Is an Alpha at that...not shy from others. Have sneaking feeling we will see the La Derby horses fill much of the super.



Yeah, it seems a lot of old angles are out the window. I still look them over, but they get busted out. The angle where a horse hasn't raced as a 2 year old will get broken by 2020 IMO.

[Huddy Goodjob]

If Dazzling Gem gets in, this is the year.

Think he has the action of a slight turfer, but you know how those types do on the Church Hill oval...

[señorclipclop]

If Dazzling Gem gets in, this is the year.

Think he has the action of a slight turfer, but you know how those types do on the Church Hill oval...

I believe Steve Haskin said they're taking Dazzling Gem to the Preakness if he runs well enough in the Arkansas Derby.