Handicapping a wet track

[PowerUpPaynter]

Good Day,

It is supposed to rain all day Saturday at Aqueduct so I was curious how do you more experienced players handicap an off track? What do you look for in the pps and how does your strategy change?

cheers

[Spiderman]

Good Day,

It is supposed to rain all day Saturday at Aqueduct so I was curious how do you more experienced players handicap an off track? What do you look for in the pps and how does your strategy change?

cheers

Leave your final decision to less than 4 mtp. Watch a race or two, look for any particular path to winner's circle. Pay attention to track maintenance to learn if track is harrowed or floated (sealed), NYRA is noted for capability to change surface condition to accommodate speed types from favoring late kickers.

[cj]

Good Day,

It is supposed to rain all day Saturday at Aqueduct so I was curious how do you more experienced players handicap an off track? What do you look for in the pps and how does your strategy change?

cheers

First thing I want to know is when the track is sealed and when it is opened during the card.

[EMD4ME]

Leave your final decision to less than 4 mtp. Watch a race or two, look for any particular path to winner's circle. Pay attention to track maintenance to learn if track is harrowed or floated (sealed), NYRA is noted for capability to change surface condition to accommodate speed types from favoring late kickers.

No. That can't be true.... ;)

[whodoyoulike]

Good Day,

It is supposed to rain all day Saturday at Aqueduct so I was curious how do you more experienced players handicap an off track? What do you look for in the pps and how does your strategy change?

cheers

Some horses aren't affected by a wet track and do run well. Note the ones who don't run well and eliminate. But, if you're unable to make a decision narrowed down to two, three or four just pass these races for another day.

[Kash$]

[/B]

No. That can't be true.... ;)


Horses that hate the slop will run faster...They hate the surface..
Horses that love the slop will not run in it all they do is play in it.

If your walking thru the rain to get your car(destination) and its raining are you walking or running?

If a horse loves the rain and wet surface why would a horse run fast to get out of the surface?

[Valuist]

Good Day,

It is supposed to rain all day Saturday at Aqueduct so I was curious how do you more experienced players handicap an off track? What do you look for in the pps and how does your strategy change?

cheers

I either avoid them, or cut back my plays considerably. One thing: when these horses run their next race, downgrade those that had positive form turnarounds (assuming they are running on a dry race), unless they had poor prior slop/mud form.

And horses in good form can be excused for dull races, regardless of prior off track form.

[pandy]

I'll be handicapping Saturday in a little while. I'll assume that the track will be sealed, but unlike years ago, a sealed wet track in NY does not mean that the track will favor speed, as it almost always used to. But you have to be careful not to just look for "mudders." Yes, if two horses are closely matched and one is really good on off tracks and the other is bad, I'll pick the better mudder. But you can't throw out current form, class, and all of the usual handicapping factors. Normally when handicapping a sealed wet track, I don't want to use horses that are likely to be far back in the early going, unless the horse is a monster who loves the mud.

[MitchS]

All valid points. Depends on the track/sealed-not sealed etc. Muddy/heavy, Sloppy/fast, many variables and different tracks to consider. Get to know your track and watch races. Breeding also has an influence with unknowns. Is it in there breeding to handle a particular surface. Be most cautious with your wagers and watch races with off tracks unless your really seasoned with these variances.

Yesterday at Aqueduct with my proprietary early speed (E1,E2) and the SR/PR speed figures did very well as usual on that type of surface. Today's a different ball game. When I was active working with racing stables and being on different circuits. Walking that track was something I did to get a feel. If you are a spectator just being at the location can pay dividends and you can watch horses in the paddock. Bottom line, watch races and get a feel for your track! IMHO

[agameofskill]

1) I usually favor early speed

2) Look for horses that have the proven ability to handle this type of wet track

3) Favorable pedigree

[sammy the sage]

Horses that hate the slop will run faster...They hate the surface..
Horses that love the slop will not run in it all they do is play in it.

If your walking thru the rain to get your car(destination) and its raining are you walking or running?

If a horse loves the rain and wet surface why would a horse run fast to get out of the surface?

post of the year :lol: :lol: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: ...not...

in reality....can't be explained any better than this by a hall of fame drunk jock:

""He was the fourth horse that I rode in the mud today and the others felt like they had ice skates on," Desormeaux said. "Exaggerator felt like he had track shoes on. He really liked the going and I think that was part of his incredible effort today. He enjoyed the mud."
"

[pondman]

Good Day,

It is supposed to rain all day Saturday at Aqueduct so I was curious how do you more experienced players handicap an off track? What do you look for in the pps and how does your strategy change?

cheers

At most tracks it creates volatility. There are some tracks that are good money makers when it's dry, but are total crazy places in a T-storm. I keep my money out of sloppy or off turf races.

[Stillriledup]

i think it comes down to if the can handle the footing, some horses will slip and slide and won't extend themselves, its a handicapping guessing game in most cases.

[thespaah]

People are going to hate me for this. My favorite days to bet the races are when the track is off. Now, I do not do well with a drying out track. So if it rains over night and the sky clears, I have issues handicapping. If the track stays wet, I do rather well. Don't know. Perhaps I concentrate more on my handicapping. Who knows.
I seem to know which horses to toss and look for the dead money in the pools.
Also, a bit of psychology is involved. Often, those main track only horses draw in with high numbers ( 13 thru 16) human nature takes over. People tend to look at numbers from the top down. They also believe smaller numbers are superior to larger numbers. So they tend to ignore the higher program numbers. I keep that in mind.

[thespaah]

At most tracks it creates volatility. There are some tracks that are good money makers when it's dry, but are total crazy places in a T-storm. I keep my money out of sloppy or off turf races.
Volatility is good. For me anyway.

[pondman]

Volatility is good. For me anyway.

More power to you for doing this. But my most valuable plays are horses shipping onto Turf. Off Turf races are NO-NOs for me.

[hyipro]

A few seasons back Saratoga, in the last days of the meet had rain like you never saw, they still ran. Had a 7 horse race, all great odds, I said what the
heck played two .50 4 horse boxes, paid $968.00 for .50 Luv the slop...

[barn32]

My most profitable days handicapping were when the track was off at Longacres.

[thespaah]

More power to you for doing this. But my most valuable plays are horses shipping onto Turf. Off Turf races are NO-NOs for me.
I look at it this. way. The odds on the tote board are a reflection of the opinion of the other people betting. Their opinion matters not to me. So if the other bettors are all over the place, or have bet their money to create false favorites, more options for me.
Now, I will stay away from races where the field has been slashed to next to nothing because the payoffs will most likely be so low, its hardly worth the risk. So I go get a beer and step outside for a smoke.

[coachv30]

As mentioned before, favor early speed and bet them across the board. Those horses get behind the pace and slop is being kicked in their faces. They pretty much have to go wide earlier to avoid it.