Santa Anita Derby, Bluegrass Stakes, Wood Memorial

[PowerUpPaynter]

So what are you guys looking for next week? Im very interested in seeing Shagaf in the Wood and want to see what Mor Spirit does in Santa Anita. The Bluegrass field seems questionable but Zulu could be a good one and has a nice pedigree for Derby.

[SecretAgentMan]

Shagaf in the Wood is the only horse that interests me. If he doesn't run 1st or 2nd, I'm scratching him off my short derby list.

Danzig Candy should wire the field once more in the SA derby. Mo Spirit should run 2nd as well, maybe these two will switch & Mor Spirit will run down Danzig & win.

Bluegrass is wide open.

But out of these 3 races, the Wood is the most interesting to me.

[Tee]

Outwork in the Wood Memorial is all I have thus far.

[Andrick]

Whether I bet them or not, I'm interested in seeing the 1st and 2nd place finishers of that race the day after the Gotham since it came back quite strong with the figure makers. Matt King Coal in the Wood and My Man Sam in the Blue Grass.

[f2tornado]

Matt King Coal and Outwork in the Wood.
Zulu in the Bluegrass
Danzing Candy in the Santa Anita.

I will be curious about the final quarter times in each and will especially look at final time in Santa Anita as a 1:48 or less is a strong Derby indicator.

[SecretAgentMan]

Destin is training up to the KD, no prep race for him. That's basically an 8 week layoff.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Destin is training up to the KD, no prep race for him. That's basically an 8 week layoff.


very weird

[jahura2]

So what are you guys looking for next week? Im very interested in seeing Shagaf in the Wood and want to see what Mor Spirit does in Santa Anita. The Bluegrass field seems questionable but Zulu could be a good one and has a nice pedigree for Derby.
Interested to see where Cherry Wine (3rd in the Rebel) shows up if at all,and watch Suddenbreakingnews' performance in the Arkansas Derby.
Also Mor Spirit in the SA Derby. I believe one of these 3 might be a play on Derby Day.

[SecretAgentMan]

Probable starters for the Blue Grass are American Dubai, Brody's Cause, Crescent Drive, Donegal Moon, Goats Town, Hint of Roses, Laoban, My Man Sam, Pinson, Star Hill, Twizz, Zapperini, Zulu.

[minethatbird08]

Interested to see where Cherry Wine (3rd in the Rebel) shows up if at all,and watch Suddenbreakingnews' performance in the Arkansas Derby.
Also Mor Spirit in the SA Derby. I believe one of these 3 might be a play on Derby Day.

I'm following Cherry Wine too.

[jahura2]

So what are you guys looking for next week? Im very interested in seeing Shagaf in the Wood and want to see what Mor Spirit does in Santa Anita. The Bluegrass field seems questionable but Zulu could be a good one and has a nice pedigree for Derby.

Official Bluegrass entries:
Giving Cherry Wine a shot here.
Saturday at Keeneland


Toyota Blue Grass Stakes

1 Lookin for a Kiss (50-1)

2 Donegal Moon (5-1)

3 Cherry Wine (12-1)

4 Zulu (5-2)

5 Crescent Drive (20-1)

6 Brody’s Cause (4-1)

7 Laoban (12-1)

8 Twizz (12-1)

9 Goats Town (20-1)

10 American Dubai (20-1)

11 Cards Of Stone (20-1)

12 Zapperini (30-1)

13 Star Hill (10-1)

14 My Man Sam (10-1)

15 Pinson (Also eligible) (30-1)

16 Hint of Roses (Also eligible) (30-1)


Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/sports/horses/keeneland/article70016812.html#storylink=cpy

[SecretAgentMan]

Official Bluegrass entries:
Giving Cherry Wine a shot here.
Saturday at Keeneland


Toyota Blue Grass Stakes

1 Lookin for a Kiss (50-1)

2 Donegal Moon (5-1)

3 Cherry Wine (12-1)

4 Zulu (5-2)

5 Crescent Drive (20-1)

6 Brody’s Cause (4-1)

7 Laoban (12-1)

8 Twizz (12-1)

9 Goats Town (20-1)

10 American Dubai (20-1)

11 Cards Of Stone (20-1)

12 Zapperini (30-1)

13 Star Hill (10-1)

14 My Man Sam (10-1)

15 Pinson (Also eligible) (30-1)

16 Hint of Roses (Also eligible) (30-1)


Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/sports/horses/keeneland/article70016812.html#storylink=cpy


Zulu should be 4-1 in this 13 horse field.

[SecretAgentMan]

Looking at the Bluegrass past performances makes me feel like I'm trying to cap Penn National. Terrible looking horses, & I do not see the KD winner coming from this race.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Looking at the Bluegrass past performances makes me feel like I'm trying to cap Penn National. Terrible looking horses, & I do not see the KD winner coming from this race.

80% of the TC preps look like Penn National to me=terrible payoffs!

[f2tornado]

Looking at the Bluegrass past performances makes me feel like I'm trying to cap Penn National. Terrible looking horses, & I do not see the KD winner coming from this race.

I'm not writing off Zulu. He ran a fair race against a live Mohaymen. He is a Bold Ruler which has won two of last three and on female side has Northern Dancer line. That dam sire line has won one in three Derby races since 2000. He also has Buckpasser-x and the Lygie female family 17b which is a good one (Gun Runner and Cupid have this one too). If he has solid final fractions then could be a live play in May. I put $10 on him in the Future at 34-1 which will be a steal if he wins or comes on strong here.

[pele polo]

Cherry Wine probably headed to Wood.

Can Brody's Cause last race be forgiven? He obviously likes Keeneland.

[SecretAgentMan]

What excuse did Romans give for Brody's Cause last race? Either the jockey held him back, or there's something wrong with the horse. The horse never even tried to run.

[Huddy Goodjob]

Ugh, My Man Sam out in the 14 for the Bluegrass. Ya he will be closing, but he is parked out pretty far...Got that one at 200-1, Wynn, Las Vegas. He needs points...I'm excited to see what he does. If he wins from out there he will be the the topic of many Pre Derby convos, and that 200-1 will look real nice.

Looking forward to seeing what Adventist does in the Wood...think he may surprise many. He lost no ground to the winner in his last and raced widest of all that day.

I have had this strange feeling for a while now that Exaggerator wins the KY Derby...I have no idea why. My wife looked at the future pool and that's the colt she chose. Only other derby bet she has made was on I'll Have Another.

[tanner12oz]

Ugh, My Man Sam out in the 14 for the Bluegrass. Ya he will be closing, but he is parked out pretty far...Got that one at 200-1, Wynn, Las Vegas. He needs points...I'm excited to see what he does. If he wins from out there he will be the the topic of many Pre Derby convos, and that 200-1 will look real nice.

Looking forward to seeing what Adventist does in the Wood...think he may surprise many. He lost no ground to the winner in his last and raced widest of all that day.

I have had this strange feeling for a while now that Exaggerator wins the KY Derby...I have no idea why. My wife looked at the future pool and that's the colt she chose. Only other derby bet she has made was on I'll Have Another.

exaggerator has been in big races for over 6 months now and has yet to deliver any performance that makes me think he is in the top tier for the derby. Would rather take a flyer in an up and comer vs one that appears to have plateaued

[tanner12oz]

Cherry Wine probably headed to Wood.

Can Brody's Cause last race be forgiven? He obviously likes Keeneland.

although any time in graded company he fizzles I kinda like Donegal moon for the same reason...likes kee

[Huddy Goodjob]

I agree...which makes me so confused why my gut is telling he wins the big one. Must have just been the spicey food.

Major knock against him is the sprint prep...Derby winners don't go that rout. Or lack of rout.

[1GCFAN]

PowerUpPaynter

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Quote:


Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Destin is training up to the KD, no prep race for him. That's basically an 8 week layoff.




very weird

Come on its TAP. Probably already ran too much!

[PowerUpPaynter]

anyone got free pp's for the big 3 races?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

anyone got free pp's for the big 3 races?

http://downthestretchs.com/

You'll find them here.

[SecretAgentMan]

http://downthestretchs.com/

You'll find them here.



Yup, they're up by Wed or Thursdays.

[Spiderman]

Anyone know where to stream a replay of the Rebel at OP?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Anyone know where to stream a replay of the Rebel at OP?

Go to Google.

Type in "2016 Rebel Stakes replay".

Pretty sure there will be a youtube video of the race.

[SecretAgentMan]

http://www.drf.com/derby-watch



This link has all the prep race replays

[Spiderman]

http://www.drf.com/derby-watch



This link has all the prep race replays

Thanks guys, I'll try both youtube and drf link. Race looks tough on paper with an even mix of early speed and closers.

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm not writing off Zulu. He ran a fair race against a live Mohaymen. He is a Bold Ruler which has won two of last three and on female side has Northern Dancer line. That dam sire line has won one in three Derby races since 2000. He also has Buckpasser-x and the Lygie female family 17b which is a good one (Gun Runner and Cupid have this one too). If he has solid final fractions then could be a live play in May. I put $10 on him in the Future at 34-1 which will be a steal if he wins or comes on strong here.



Zulu is a decent horse, but in a 14 horse field, I can't play him in the Bluegrass. I would like to see him rate & make a move coming around the turn coming for home. If he tries to wire the field, he'd a complete toss IMO.

[SandyLoam]

Weather forecasts for Santa Anita and Aqueduct both lousy.

[Bennie]

Zulu listed to run with blinkers on. Will be up front and winging for sure

[SecretAgentMan]

Zulu listed to run with blinkers on. Will be up front and winging for sure



Yup, & I don't like the fact that Pletcher is adding blinkers right before the derby, it tells me he needs the horse to focus better. Making changes like these the race before the derby is a huge negative IMO.

Not saying he won't win the Bluegrass, but don't like him in the KD with this change.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Yup, & I don't like the fact that Pletcher is adding blinkers right before the derby, it tells me he needs the horse to focus better. Making changes like these the race before the derby is a huge negative IMO.

Not saying he won't win the Bluegrass, but don't like him in the KD with this change.

well what if he takes well to the blinkers and runs a huge race?

[Bennie]

Just a little note - horses who have equipment changes at 3 years old are something like 0 for 30 in the Derby. That is blinks on or blinks off combined record.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Just a little note - horses who have equipment changes at 3 years old are something like 0 for 30 in the Derby. That is blinks on or blinks off combined record.


fair enough buut what was the storm cat line record in the derby till last year? like 0-44 or something

[SecretAgentMan]

fair enough buut what was the storm cat line record in the derby till last year? like 0-44 or something



Good luck betting Zulu in the KD.

[CoxHub]

This Podcast breaks down this weekends big Derby preps. Check it out! http://www.coxhub.com/articles/huge-derby-prep-weekend-will-answer-many-questions

[Spiderman]

This Podcast breaks down this weekends big Derby preps. Check it out! http://www.coxhub.com/articles/huge-derby-prep-weekend-will-answer-many-questions

Lost interest to see further details after noting that his selection, Dancing Candy is spelled incorrectly. Should be: Danzing Candy

[f2tornado]

fair enough buut what was the storm cat line record in the derby till last year? like 0-44 or something

Storm Cat is still 0-whatever on the sire line. I wouldn't let one angle make or break a selection but there is likely a reason most exist.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Good luck betting Zulu in the KD.


Far from committed to Zulu I just hope i see a performance this week good enough that i dont have to have chalk all over my face derby day. As of now I havent seen a horse run a final prep that can beat Nyquist... and i dont like that

[f2tornado]

Far from committed to Zulu I just hope i see a performance this week good enough that i dont have to have chalk all over my face derby day. As of now I havent seen a horse run a final prep that can beat Nyquist... and i dont like that

Well, that's expected when there are four big dogs to go. I put $10 on Zulu at 34-1 in the Future wager. It would be unconventional to say the least winning roses off only two routes but worth a shot at those odds.

[pele polo]

http://pickinsider.com/wp/toyota-bluegrass-stakes-on-tap-for-opening-weekend-at-keeneland/

[sbcaris]

Toronado said that Storm Cat from the sire line is 0-44 in the Derby and there is a reason that exists.

One must ask--how many of the above 44 starters with Storm Cat sire line were actual contenders in the Derby? I do not know but have a feeling that 90% of them were probably not contenders to begin with. How many of the above Storm Cat sire line horses raced a fast final 3/8 of a big 5 prep race? My guess, not many at all but I am not sure.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Toronado said that Storm Cat from the sire line is 0-44 in the Derby and there is a reason that exists.

One must ask--how many of the above 44 starters with Storm Cat sire line were actual contenders in the Derby? I do not know but have a feeling that 90% of them were probably not contenders to begin with. How many of the above Storm Cat sire line horses raced a fast final 3/8 of a big 5 prep race? My guess, not many at all but I am not sure.


how do you calculate the final 3/8? and what does an off track do to the fractional angle, meaning obviously a sloppy track will be slower

[f2tornado]

how do you calculate the final 3/8? and what does an off track do to the fractional angle, meaning obviously a sloppy track will be slower

Stan's the man putting those figures together but it's pretty easy since you have the 6F call and the 9F finish line time making an easy final 3/8th calculation. This is especially easy when the horse leads from 6F to the wire. You have to adjust a fifth of a second for each length behind when not the leader.

If we look at Gun Runner in the Louisiana Derby he was just a half length back at the 6F call timed at 1:12 4/5. The adjusted time is practically negligible since a 1/2 length is only around 1/10th of a second. Pretty much within the margin of error. The finish was in 1:51 flat and he was the winner. Subtract the 6F time from the 9F time and you get 38 1/5 seconds (and perhaps closer to 38 2/5 when accounting for that half length at the 6F call) for the final 3/8th split. Most Derby winners run this spit in final 9F prep under 38 seconds.

[f2tornado]

Toronado said that Storm Cat from the sire line is 0-44 in the Derby and there is a reason that exists.

One must ask--how many of the above 44 starters with Storm Cat sire line were actual contenders in the Derby? I do not know but have a feeling that 90% of them were probably not contenders to begin with. How many of the above Storm Cat sire line horses raced a fast final 3/8 of a big 5 prep race? My guess, not many at all but I am not sure.

We went through this discussion last year. From your post...

From the standpoint of those that achieved a final 3/8 in 37 4/5 or less we get an entirely different picture. There were only 5 years in the last 10 where at least one Storm Cat horse achieved a final fraction of 37 4/5 or less:

2014 Ride On Curlin
2013 Verrazzano and vyjack
2012 Bodemeister (2nd) and El Padrino
2011 Comma To the Top
2010 Ice Box (2nd) and Line of David

So thats 8 horses qualifying on both factors which is approx 8% of the starters and since there were 2 place finishers in that 5 year period the impact value to place is a humongous 5.00. Horse with storm cat plus final fraction time are running second in the Derby 5 times more often than statistical expectation.

Right now Storm Cat sire line has a win impact value of zero with or without fast 3/8th time. Meanwhile, Raise A Native with fast fractions has a huge impact value nearing 4.00. That seems too large to be coincidence. I'm looking for the winner, not the place horse except for my exotics. I'm not saying throw out a Storm Cat horse based on this single angle but it sure makes it hard to bet on top with any authority.

[Stoleitbreezing]

We went through this discussion last year. From your post...

From the standpoint of those that achieved a final 3/8 in 37 4/5 or less we get an entirely different picture. There were only 5 years in the last 10 where at least one Storm Cat horse achieved a final fraction of 37 4/5 or less:

2014 Ride On Curlin
2013 Verrazzano and vyjack
2012 Bodemeister (2nd) and El Padrino
2011 Comma To the Top
2010 Ice Box (2nd) and Line of David

So thats 8 horses qualifying on both factors which is approx 8% of the starters and since there were 2 place finishers in that 5 year period the impact value to place is a humongous 5.00. Horse with storm cat plus final fraction time are running second in the Derby 5 times more often than statistical expectation.

Right now Storm Cat sire line has a win impact value of zero with or without fast 3/8th time. Meanwhile, Raise A Native with fast fractions has a huge impact value nearing 4.00. That seems too large to be coincidence. I'm looking for the winner, not the place horse except for my exotics. I'm not saying throw out a Storm Cat horse based on this single angle but it sure makes it hard to bet on top with any authority.

I'm sure its here somewhere, but can you please post or pm me the raise a native line horses. Thanks!

[PowerUpPaynter]

Stan's the man putting those figures together but it's pretty easy since you have the 6F call and the 9F finish line time making an easy final 3/8th calculation. This is especially easy when the horse leads from 6F to the wire. You have to adjust a fifth of a second for each length behind when not the leader.

If we look at Gun Runner in the Louisiana Derby he was just a half length back at the 6F call timed at 1:12 4/5. The adjusted time is practically negligible since a 1/2 length is only around 1/10th of a second. Pretty much within the margin of error. The finish was in 1:51 flat and he was the winner. Subtract the 6F time from the 9F time and you get 38 1/5 seconds (and perhaps closer to 38 2/5 when accounting for that half length at the 6F call) for the final 3/8th split. Most Derby winners run this spit in final 9F prep under 38 seconds.


so the last 3 calls in the pp are 6f, 8f, 9f?


how would you calculate a horse that does not win considering the final time is that of the winner? Like lets say Mohaymen as an example

[PowerUpPaynter]

and wouldnt most horses run under 38

[Andrick]

so the last 3 calls in the pp are 6f, 8f, 9f?


how would you calculate a horse that does not win considering the final time is that of the winner? Like lets say Mohaymen as an example

You could use the Trakus data to simplify things;

http://tnetwork.trakus.com/tnet/t_Gulfstream.aspx?EventID=92794&Date=4/2/2016&Type=TBRED&Venue=20&DisplayType=1

They have Mohaymen running 25.51 between the 6F and 8F, and then finishing the 9F in 13.47. 38.98 in total for the final 3F.

[Secondbest]

and wouldnt most horses run under 38
No.For example last months stymie was run in 38and 2. The better horses run in sub 38 .At this time of year any 3yr old that runs sub 38 is an automátic contender for the derby in my opinión.

[Secondbest]

By better horses I mean older Grade 1 at this time of year

[PowerUpPaynter]

so 38 flat disqualify them from the rule?

did a little research and of the 16 derby winners this century 12 of which finished under 38 and super saver and big brown did it in 38 flat. mine that bird and animal kingdom did not qualify

[f2tornado]

I'm sure its here somewhere, but can you please post or pm me the raise a native line horses. Thanks!

These are most of the RAN horses. If one of these runs a fast final 3/8th today or in Ark next week then might be a live Derby play. American Pharoah was a Raise A Native and ran a fast 3/8 in the Ark last year. Nobody got paid to play him. You will get paid to bet against Nyquist.

Adventist
American Dubai
Bird of Trey
Blue Creek
Candy My Boy
Collected
Danzing Candy
Dazzling Gem
Exaggerator
Frank Conversation
Gettysburg
Gift Box
Gun Runner
Hammers Vision
I Will Score
In Equality
King Kranz
Rare Candy
Star Hill
Swipe
Unbridled Outlaw
Vorticity

[Secondbest]

so 38 flat disqualify them from the rule?

did a little research and of the 16 derby winners this century 12 of which finished under 38 and super saver and big brown did it in 38 flat. mine that bird and animal kingdom did not qualify
38 flat is ok by me.

[señorclipclop]

Now we need to figure out some patterns for horses underneath.

[sbcaris]

Second Best: My research shows that a final 3/8 in 38 or higher does not provide the same impact as 37 4/5 or lower. Horses with 37 4/5 or lower for a final 3/8 of a big 5 Prep race are winning the roses with an impact value of around 2.00. Twice as often as expected. Those with 38 or lower are winning the roses with an impact value significantly less than 2.00.

The reason for the above difference is found in the number of qualifiers. Once you raise the time to 38 flat you increase the number of starters that qualify and therefore you reduce the impact value. I have found 37 4/5 or less to be the best cut-off point. Then again if in the whole field there are only 2 horses that qualify and the third best horse has a 38 flat time, it pays to look at the horse more closely because he might be an overlay. I think I did just that with Super Saver who had a 38 flat but did have less than 13 for the final eighth of a mile in the Arkansas Derby.

My book, Analyzing The Triple Crown (The Raise A Native Sire Line Rules) goes into this factor in detail and can be purchased at American Turf Monthly.

[Secondbest]

Thanks. I didn't realize the 1/5 made that much of a difference.

[sbcaris]

Also of interest--- Regarding the final fraction times (3/8 and final 1/8) races over turf and polytracks are not used. The only races I use are the big 5 preps over dirt ovals: SA Derby, Bluegrass, Wood Memorial, Ark Derby, and Florida Derby.

[f2tornado]

The only races I use are the big 5 preps over dirt ovals: SA Derby, Bluegrass, Wood Memorial, Ark Derby, and Florida Derby.

Why not consider the Louisiana Derby? Starters in that prep have done ample Triple Crown tote board damage since it went back to a 9F race in 2010.

Keen Ice
Commanding Curve
Golden Soul
Revolutionary
Nehro
Mucho Macho Man
Drosselmeyer
Palace Malice

[SecretAgentMan]

Why not consider the Louisiana Derby? Starters in that prep have done ample Triple Crown tote board damage since it went back to a 9F race in 2010.

Keen Ice
Commanding Curve
Golden Soul
Revolutionary
Nehro
Mucho Macho Man
Drosselmeyer
Palace Malice


Yup, just a matter of when the LA derby has the KD winner.

[sbcaris]

Handicappers must be flexible and I certainly consider the Louisiana Derby to be a possible race to get a Derby contender. However, the big 5 have been the best over the years for getting Derby winners. No horse ever came out of the Louisiana Derby to win the roses in its very next start. Funny Cide followed up his Louisiana Derby with a run in the Wood Memorial and Grindstone did something like the Louisiana Derby followed by the Arkansas Derby. But like you said above several runners have hit the board in the Ky Derby who last raced in the Louisiana Derby. So, it certainly may pay to give Gun Runner a second look because he won the Louisiana Derby by daylight and has good breeding for going 10 furlongs. I certainly will take a long look at Gun Runner and may include him in my recommendations for this years Ky Derby either in the win or place or perhaps show and superfecta positions depending on post position, workouts leading up to Derby day, etc.

[f2tornado]

Handicappers must be flexible and I certainly consider the Louisiana Derby to be a possible race to get a Derby contender. However, the big 5 have been the best over the years for getting Derby winners. No horse ever came out of the Louisiana Derby to win the roses in its very next start.

Agree it's hard to bet something that has never happened before. It seems like the Louisiana Derby horses I listed lined up with with angles you tend to look at but I have not looked at their fractions.

Keen Ice - Raise A Native
Commanding Curve - Buckpasser-x
Golden Soul - Family 1 Marchetta
Revolutionary - Buckpasser-x , Family 1 Doxa
Nehro - Artless tail female
Mucho Macho Man - Artless tail female
Drosselmeyer - Raise A Native, Buckpasser-x
Palace Malice - Raise A Native

This year's exacta had:
Gun Runner - Raise A Native, Lygie in tail female
Tom's Ready - Cherokee Rose in tail female (and tote bomber Dallas Stewart).

Something from that race has ruined a lot of tickers in the spring classics since it went back to 9F.

[SecretAgentMan]

Sloppy tracks

[raybo]

Posted these rankings for the 3 preps earlier today on my little forum:

I'm experimenting with a weighted factor method ("MultiVar"), and so far the hit rate for the top 3 picks is varying between 61% and 65%, which is about what one would expect from the top 3 selections of a good win probability program. The top pick is currently hitting 31% winners at a slightly positive ROI (1.06).

So, I am posting the complete rankings order for the Wood Memorial today, using that rankings method. These selections are in ranked order from best to worst.

Horse#s
ranked Name ML odds
8 OUTWORK 2.5
6 MATT KING COAL 3.0
1 SHAGAF 2.0
5 FLEXIBILITY 8.0
2 ADVENTIST 10.0
7 DALMORE 12.0
4 TALE OF S'AVALL 20.0
3 TROJAN NATION 30.0

As in the Wood Memorial post I am using an experimental "MultiVar" rankings method for the Bluegrass Stakes today.

Horse#s
ranked Name ML odds
4 ZULU 2.5
14 MY MAN SAM 10.0
2 DONEGAL MOON 5.0
11 CARDS OF STONE 20.0
3 CHERRY WINE 12.0
6 BRODY'S CAUSE 4.0
10 AMERICAN DUBAI 20.0
13 STAR HILL 10.0
7 LAOBAN 12.0
5 CRESCENT DRIVE 20.0
16 HINT OF ROSES 30.0
9 GOATS TOWN 20.0
12 ZAPPERINI 30.0
15 PINSON 30.0
8 TWIZZ 30.0
1 LOOKIN FOR A KISS 50.0

As in the prior 2 posts, I am posting the experimental "MultiVar" rankings method for the Santa Anita Derby today.

Horse#s
ranked Name ML odds
4 MOR SPIRIT 1.6
2 EXAGGERATOR 4.0
3 DANZING CANDY 1.8
5 SMOKEY IMAGE 15.0
10 UNCLE LINO 20.0
1 DENMAN'S CALL 15.0
9 DIPLODOCUS 30.0
8 RARE CANDY 30.0
6 IRON ROB 12.0

[Grits]

Dale's full of more **** than a Christmas goose. He ain't goin' to Hong Kong. He just likes to whine!! :lol::lol::lol:

[Secondbest]

no sub 38 today.So far .but AQ was way off. The carter was over 38 whiich is slow for these horses.

[SecretAgentMan]

no sub 38 today.So far .but AQ was way off. The carter was over 38 whiich is slow for these horses.



I always thought sloppy tracks mess with times because horses can run as fast, so you're left guessing.

AP ran the Rebel in 1:45, that's kind of slow, but it was sloppy.

[Stillriledup]

If denmans call wins Wrona needs to give a "moving like a winner" it will be the right thing to do. Tough to get past the top 3 faves here though there're all good

[Grits]

"Exaggerator goes by them like they're tied to the rail."

What a great call by Wrona.... :)

[SecretAgentMan]

"Exaggerator goes by them like they're tied to the rail."

What a great call by Wrona.... :)



Yeah, he crushed the field. Danzig ran like he was a rabbit, crazy fast time for the first half mile.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

"Exaggerator goes by them like they're tied to the rail."

What a great call by Wrona.... :)

It was absolutely fantastic. :ThmbUp:

BC Juvenile showing up really strong as opposed to most years. Nyquist, Brody's Cause, and Exaggerator finished 1st, 3rd, 4th and all romped in the Florida Derby, Bluegrass, and Santa Anita Derby respectively.

The missing 2nd place horse? Swipe who has yet to race as a 3YO.

[SecretAgentMan]

Exxagerator looked like Monarchos out there.

[yankeelpn]

More like "Mine That Bird" in the slop

[raybo]

More like "Mine That Bird" in the slop

Except he didn't shoot the rail, and he wasn't 50/1. :lol:

[SecretAgentMan]

Anyone know the final time of the Santa Anita derby?

[f2tornado]

no sub 38 today.So far .but AQ was way off. The carter was over 38 whiich is slow for these horses.

The raw final 3/8th in the Bluegrass was 38.76 but Brody was 9th perhaps 6 or 7 lengths back at the 6F call. That would put his final 3/8th in the 37.6 ballpark. Impressive. The 12.94 final panel not too shabby either. His tail female family the same as Secretariat. My Man Sam was even further back at the 6F call and lost by about 2 lengths. He's got the Cherokee Rose tail. Cherry Wine closed well too. Perhaps I have something to play against Nyquist next month afterall.

[reckless]

Anyone know the final time of the Santa Anita derby?

Here you go, and a wee bit more:

22.15 :45.24 1:10.12 1:36.30 1:49.66

[SecretAgentMan]

Here you go, and a wee bit more:

22.15 :45.24 1:10.12 1:36.30 1:49.66



Thank you!

[f2tornado]

Here you go, and a wee bit more:

22.15 :45.24 1:10.12 1:36.30 1:49.66

It's an interesting time insofar as anything above 1:48 in the SA typically doesn't win the Derby but there are exceptions (Ferdinand, Giacomo). The raw final 3/8th was a slow 39.54 but Exaggerator was nearly 10 lengths back at the 6F call so he ran his final 3/8 in around 37.6 which is pretty darn good. I needed Danzing Candy to hold on for the show spot then would have cashed a nice $1 superfecta. No wagering luck for me today.

[SecretAgentMan]

It's an interesting time insofar as anything above 1:48 in the SA typically doesn't win the Derby but there are exceptions (Ferdinand, Giacomo). The raw final 3/8th was a slow 39.54 but Exaggerator was nearly 10 lengths back at the 6F call so he ran his final 3/8 in around 37.6 which is pretty darn good. I needed Danzing Candy to hold on for the show spot then would have cashed a nice $1 superfecta. No wagering luck for me today.



With Exxagerator winning so impressively, he's gonna take a bunch of money in the KD. If Cupid can solidify a win next week, Nyquists odds should be around 4-1 in the KD since several other horses with big name trainers will take money.

Romans suggested Brody's Cause needed the last race, I don't buy that crap. No decent horse comes in 7th by 12 lengths & then romps in the next race, I definitely do not like Brody at all in the KD.

I don't think we saw the KD winner today.

[f2tornado]

I saw four possible winners today and none from the Wood. I pretty much know what my exacta will look like. Just a matter of what gets added if anything after the Ark.

[magwell]

It sure appears that the Bluegrass and the Wood ruined a lot of Derby dreams today, lets hope Cupid shows up big next week in the Arkansas derby and we could see a real good Kentucky Derby this year.........:cool:

[señorclipclop]

I saw four possible winners today and none from the Wood. I pretty much know what my exacta will look like. Just a matter of what gets added if anything after the Ark.

How do you structure Exactas and Tris in the Derby? That always seems to be a problem for me

[SecretAgentMan]

Anyone see beyer or brisnet figures for yesterdays winners?

[SecretAgentMan]

Beyer figures are out:


Outwork 93

Brody's Cause 91

Exxagerator 103

[Secondbest]

outwork and Brody both received -32 and exaggerator got a - 44 on chef -de- race.
As a comparison unified was -51 in the bay shore.Leading me to think that Aqu really slowed down later in the card.On the other hand Brody was lower than his 2 ya old figure and exagerador was 2 pt higher -44 vs -42. Nyquist was -41 in florida.
Cupid was -51 in the rebel a good race in the ark and he might be the one .Lets see What happens.

[SecretAgentMan]

outwork and Brody both received -32 and exaggerator got a - 44 on chef -de- race.
As a comparison unified was -51 in the bay shore.Leading me to think that Aqu really slowed down later in the card.On the other hand Brody was lower than his 2 ya old figure and exagerador was 2 pt higher -44 vs -42. Nyquist was -41 in florida.
Cupid was -51 in the rebel a good race in the ark and he might be the one .Lets see What happens.



Have you kept track of the highest number posted each year by the chef to see how the horses with the highest number has done over the years?

[f2tornado]

Have you kept track of the highest number posted each year by the chef to see how the horses with the highest number has done over the years?

Par is -57 for the actual Derby. The Derby winner has had a top five PF in 8 of last 15 races. Roman's 10F figure has had a stronger impact value than his in house figure as those in top five have won 12 of the last 15 Derby races. Of those, Exaggerator ranks slightly above Nyquist for best of the 9F preps. Mohaymen had the best 8.5F prep with his performance in Holy Bull.

With perhaps 90% of the starters having ran their final race I cannot come up with solid win play on any. It might come down to plunking money on the one in my top five with the longest odds. I usually have good confidence in one or two horses at this point. None this year.

[SecretAgentMan]

Par is -57 for the actual Derby. The Derby winner has had a top five PF in 8 of last 15 races. Roman's 10F figure has had a stronger impact value than his in house figure as those in top five have won 12 of the last 15 Derby races. Of those, Exaggerator ranks slightly above Nyquist for best of the 9F preps. Mohaymen had the best 8.5F prep with his performance in Holy Bull.

With perhaps 90% of the starters having ran their final race I cannot come up with solid win play on any. It might come down to plunking money on the one in my top five with the longest odds. I usually have good confidence in one or two horses at this point. None this year.




I agree, I felt very confident with Chrome, he just stood out over all the others. I actually felt very confident about Funny Cide as well, even tho the gelding BS angle was there, as a few others like Smarty Jones.

This year I'm sticking with Gun Runner, & will also play a few triples of a long shot on top just in case someone pulls a Giacomo.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Par is -57 for the actual Derby. The Derby winner has had a top five PF in 8 of last 15 races. Roman's 10F figure has had a stronger impact value than his in house figure as those in top five have won 12 of the last 15 Derby races. Of those, Exaggerator ranks slightly above Nyquist for best of the 9F preps. Mohaymen had the best 8.5F prep with his performance in Holy Bull.

With perhaps 90% of the starters having ran their final race I cannot come up with solid win play on any. It might come down to plunking money on the one in my top five with the longest odds. I usually have good confidence in one or two horses at this point. None this year.



I just cant come up with a horse that has any chance in hell of beating Nyquist. Maybe a hot pace can take him down... i dont know another year of chalk is annoying

[SecretAgentMan]

I just cant come up with a horse that has any chance in hell of beating Nyquist. Maybe a hot pace can take him down... i dont know another year of chalk is annoying




I know the feeling of being annoyed by these favs, hence me betting against AP & the best trainer last year. Nyquist is not as good as AP or Chrome IMO, & he's undefeated, something AP & Chrome weren't. Very interesting either way.

[PowerUpPaynter]

I know the feeling of being annoyed by these favs, hence me betting against AP & the best trainer last year. Nyquist is not as good as AP or Chrome IMO, & he's undefeated, something AP & Chrome weren't. Very interesting either way.


and im holding a $75 futures bet on Nyquist at 7-1 but it still just annoys me. Gives me flexability come betting derby day however knowing if he wins i get 637.50.

Knowing that i can go for the bomb tri and super but to me its still annoying.

[f2tornado]

I know the feeling of being annoyed by these favs, hence me betting against AP & the best trainer last year. Nyquist is not as good as AP or Chrome IMO, & he's undefeated, something AP & Chrome weren't. Very interesting either way.

Agree. Nyquist is a far better play against than last two favorites. I have a few horses I like but all have a knock as well. Exaggerator is the only Raise A Native on my short list but the final SA Derby time was anemic. Very few win the Derby hitting the wire in over 1:48. Brody looked good yesterday but Beyer was unimpressed and I have a hard time going all in on Northern Dancer. Is he real or just a horse for course? The horse he beat would have ran farther and also fits a few of my angles. Nyquist has the Buckpasser but very scratchy dosage and sire line. Lani is a well bred Colt but Dubai has not been an ideal prep. Perhaps the best bet is not to make one. Will see what happens in the Ark otherwise will box those five and put them over the top two in Louisiana Derby.

[SecretAgentMan]

Exxagerator has the highest beyer in this crop of horses with a 103. Let's see what Cupid receives if he wins. I like the trainer & jockey of Exxagerator, the Desormeaux brothers. But like you've mentioned, not a good final time for the SA Derby.

[SecretAgentMan]

and im holding a $75 futures bet on Nyquist at 7-1 but it still just annoys me. Gives me flexability come betting derby day however knowing if he wins i get 637.50.

Knowing that i can go for the bomb tri and super but to me its still annoying.



You're in a good spot, if the fav does win, you're good.

[minethatbird08]

Exxagerator has the highest beyer in this crop of horses with a 103. Let's see what Cupid receives if he wins. I like the trainer & jockey of Exxagerator, the Desormeaux brothers. But like you've mentioned, not a good final time for the SA Derby.

It's great to see Desormeaux riding well again. Hopefully, he is holding his demons at bay. It would be nice to see a Antley story with a happy ending.

[Secondbest]

Have you kept track of the highest number posted each year by the chef to see how the horses with the highest number has done over the years?
Once the pps are out he posts his top factors that have the winner in the the top 5 x% of the time. I can' t remember the % for the pf .

[f2tornado]

Once the pps are out he posts his top factors that have the winner in the the top 5 x% of the time. I can' t remember the % for the pf .

Since 1998, the Derby winner has been among the top five: 10
11
6
12
11
9
8 times in highest 3Fr;
times in highest TE;
times in lowest %E;
times in fastest 10f;
times in fastest 10fTT;
times in fastest 10fLQ;
times in best PF.
I find it interesting Roman's in house figure is inferior to some of his other calculations like 10f. He does have a nice chart you can sort by category. I've looked at his site for a long time. I don't know if I've made any money using the info but gotta love the completeness and neatness of it all.

[Secondbest]

I use his figures for the TC in conjunction with others .First s the final fraction under 38 to get contenders then I go Dr.Romans site and work it from there.
My best day ever was the breeders cup the year ghostzapper won the classic.I used the pfs for all the races and like I said best day ever.
Has not worked as well since.

[burnsy]

Two of three races were run in wet conditions. All times and winning margins should be taken with a grain of salt.......just saying. Those kind of tracks can have strange results and I would look at anyone that was close or in the money and not just concentrate on the winner. The horse in the Wood that was miscalled (Adventist) ended up showing and he was closing fast. That horse appeared to want more ground and finished strongly. Mor Spirit ran well to get second and appeared to not like the going at all. If the Derby comes up on a fast track I would not discount these two horses just because of "times". Both tracks were a sloppy mess.

[Secondbest]

Couldn't agree more.AQ slowed a lot . Unified ran a faster final time than Salutos. Amigos. Either the track slowed or Unified is a monster.

[boys at tosconova]

ty for that nice race zulu...