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View Full Version : Exotic or straight play?


Capper Al
04-03-2016, 09:39 AM
Most nothing can happen without picking the winner. Wheeling exotics can provide a work around for having to be exact for picking a winner, but at what cost over the long run? With lower takeouts, straight play should return more, but this can be debatable too. I play exotics and wonder if with my playing style should I avoid handicapping contest. Most handicapping tournaments are straight play. It's possible that many profitable exotic players might not do well in the contests just because it isn't their style of play. Yet exotic players do have to pick winners in their contenders. Do you think that handicapping contests are for straight players only, or could a good exotic player change their ways to compete?

arw629
04-03-2016, 09:24 PM
95% of my bets are straight plays and horizontal exotics...I've played $2700 this yr on horse tourneys and I'm currently showing a profit of $1700...i have played a limited sample of the new exacta format at low stakes and have only one win where I hit an 89 dollar and 64 dollar exacta in the sequence....bottom line I won't be playing in many if any exacta tournaments in the future bc I feel like j am out of my element in terms of making selections...if I were u I would try the exacta format on horse tourneys and see how it goes..handicapping contests aren't for everyone but finding one that suits your style could work for u

arw629
04-03-2016, 09:28 PM
The only vertical bets I make are if I feel there are two standout horses that I like a lot or a strong fav with a Longshot that I love ....both situations occur in small fields and I'll play it heavy..

The only other time I make vertical bets is big fields that look wide open I may make a 5 6 or 7 horse exacta box with bombs or a dime super 5 horse or 6 horse box in a big field ....vertical exotics are def not a strength of my game but at times I can make a nice score if I'm selective

ronsmac
04-03-2016, 11:34 PM
Most nothing can happen without picking the winner. Wheeling exotics can provide a work around for having to be exact for picking a winner, but at what cost over the long run? With lower takeouts, straight play should return more, but this can be debatable too. I play exotics and wonder if with my playing style should I avoid handicapping contest. Most handicapping tournaments are straight play. It's possible that many profitable exotic players might not do well in the contests just because it isn't their style of play. Yet exotic players do have to pick winners in their contenders. Do you think that handicapping contests are for straight players only, or could a good exotic player change their ways to compete?I've made 2 win bets this year and I'm in the black so far, knock on wood. I would get absolutely crushed in a handicapping tournament with the wp format.

Capper Al
04-04-2016, 07:48 AM
The only vertical bets I make are if I feel there are two standout horses that I like a lot or a strong fav with a Longshot that I love ....both situations occur in small fields and I'll play it heavy..

The only other time I make vertical bets is big fields that look wide open I may make a 5 6 or 7 horse exacta box with bombs or a dime super 5 horse or 6 horse box in a big field ....vertical exotics are def not a strength of my game but at times I can make a nice score if I'm selective

You're right about horizontal verse vertical wagering. I make mostly vertical bets. And that's my problem with win/place format.

Capper Al
04-04-2016, 07:51 AM
I've made 2 win bets this year and I'm in the black so far, knock on wood. I would get absolutely crushed in a handicapping tournament with the wp format.

Years ago I played in a tournament. I hit the two longshots of the day, but decided to place these instead of go for the win. Of course, this cost me. One has to be daring, good, and lucky to win a handicapping contest.

Appy
04-05-2016, 03:51 PM
Al, I have come to believe specialization is key to success in horse race wagering, with PASS being the most profitable tool in the box. Because contest rules stipulate which tracks and races you play I ignore them completely.

I have a mentor and friend who specializes in vertical play, P4 mostly, and he seems to do admirably at that. I have another mentor and friend who is among the elite in terms of success and he only plays $200 W bet when all the stars align. A third full time handicapper whose advice I value plays what I call the "grinder game" and he is very good. I think grinders who are very good are best fit for contest play, although I'm not convinced they would win the contest all that often.
As for myself, I prefer the horizontal exotics for races and conditions my results confirm as my current specialty. For the right race I will play every bet, W/EX/TRI/SUPER...but that is a rare occasion.

Capper Al
04-05-2016, 04:44 PM
Al, I have come to believe specialization is key to success in horse race wagering, with PASS being the most profitable tool in the box. Because contest rules stipulate which tracks and races you play I ignore them completely.

I have a mentor and friend who specializes in vertical play, P4 mostly, and he seems to do admirably at that. I have another mentor and friend who is among the elite in terms of success and he only plays $200 W bet when all the stars align. A third full time handicapper whose advice I value plays what I call the "grinder game" and he is very good. I think grinders who are very good are best fit for contest play, although I'm not convinced they would win the contest all that often.
As for myself, I prefer the horizontal exotics for races and conditions my results confirm as my current specialty. For the right race I will play every bet, W/EX/TRI/SUPER...but that is a rare occasion.

Agree. And add to this that in contests the hosting track usually gets half of the races in the contest. Anyone with an inside here could pick up a couple of wins and maybe at a price. But I do believe contests are overall fair. It's just a fact of racing to contend with.

BTW, I get my horizontal and vertical mixed up. I'm currently playing exactas and trifectas.

arw629
04-05-2016, 05:47 PM
Horizontal bets are dd, pick3, pick 4 ect
Vertical are exacta tri super

Appy
04-06-2016, 06:45 PM
Horizontal bets are dd, pick3, pick 4 ect
Vertical are exacta tri super
:lol:
I guess that just proves what a contrarian I am cause I always saw it just the opposite. W/ex/tri etc all in same race, while W for successive races is up and down the card.
Oh well...can't accuse me of being a know-it-all.

CincyHorseplayer
04-06-2016, 07:45 PM
Make you win or win/place wagers then bet exotics. After X amount of years we end up good handicappers and land on winners. While I know big scores are to be had elsewhere this is foundation. Firmament. For me anyway. I stayed at an average mutuel of 9.40 or thereabouts for over a decade. It has gone up $1 and $2 on turf. My win and place rates remain exactly the same 28%/47%. With exotics I find that being picky is better but being thorough when you do play. For me an exotic wager should not be "routine" if I'm in it I am there to hammer it. I only say this because I can be lazy and start boxing and wheeling like an idiot. I started out in this game reading the Winning Horseplayer by Beyer. My stats show the reverse is true. I backed into being a win/place bettor. Thank god! Was just reminded of it yesterday when I casually(dumb ass) played a 5-1 in exactas at Turf Paradise. It won and I collected nothing. was about to do the same thing at OP today but made the 2 units win 1 unit place wager and cashed at 7-1. Exacta would have gotten blown up. Pick your exotic spots. Bet your foundation. I am surprised by the ROI on straight plays. I guess time is an ally after all!

Capper Al
04-06-2016, 07:59 PM
I started playing straight if I only had one horse at odds. If I have two at odds then I go exacta/tri. But I am on watch also now not to turn into the idiot wheeler. I play this is what I lost when I started losing.

CincyHorseplayer
04-06-2016, 10:10 PM
I started playing straight if I only had one horse at odds. If I have two at odds then I go exacta/tri. But I am on watch also now not to turn into the idiot wheeler. I play this is what I lost when I started losing.

I rarely ever have odds on 2 horses which is fine. I just bet the other one and usually to place too since the odds are lower than a place payoff on the other horse. Here is the last 2 weeks. This is based on a 3 unit method to win and place. On turf I bet plenty of 2 horses to win but dirt I just bet the higher odds horse usually. I only separate odds by under and over 2-1.

arw629
04-06-2016, 11:44 PM
:lol:
I guess that just proves what a contrarian I am cause I always saw it just the opposite. W/ex/tri etc all in same race, while W for successive races is up and down the card.
Oh well...can't accuse me of being a know-it-all.

I knew what you mean and it doesn't matter to me...just pointing it out bc the other poster seemed confused and thought I would provide some clarity

arw629
04-06-2016, 11:48 PM
I started playing straight if I only had one horse at odds. If I have two at odds then I go exacta/tri. But I am on watch also now not to turn into the idiot wheeler. I play this is what I lost when I started losing.

Everyone is different but personally I hate the evil ALL button!!!

pondman
04-18-2016, 03:20 PM
Do you think that handicapping contests are for straight players only, or could a good exotic player change their ways to compete?

I have two methods for straight plays. And an entirely different method for tris that has nothing to do what so every with the straight plays. So on a day like this, I have 11 win plays throughout the US. And I have 5 tri boxes at Turf Paradise.

I haven't found a handicapping contest that was suitable for me. I'd have to have one that had a pick a horse anywhere format. They are probably out there-- I just have never played one.