Swipe?

[PowerUpPaynter]

Is Swipe on the trail to the derby? Seems to be the horse thats come the closest to Nyquist.

[cj]

Worked Saturday and is pointed to the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.

[f2tornado]

And even if he wins the Lexington he would have 22 points and likely need several defections to get in the Derby. I think this horse should go Peter Pan - Belmont route.

[señorclipclop]

Horse hasn't raced yet this year and people are still betting him in the futures at 20-1.

[PowerUpPaynter]

such a weird move. why not just go santa anita derby

[Stoleitbreezing]

Why this horse was on the future wager list after not working for several months due to injury was ludicrous. His connections never mentioned that they'd be ready for the derby trail yet he was added and people bet him based on his company line. The fact they are skipping the Santa Anita Derby and the other major points races tells me he's not going to be considered for the roses. If anything he may make an appearance in the Preakness.

[f2tornado]

Horse hasn't raced yet this year and people are still betting him in the futures at 20-1.
He is the only horse to be within a half to Nyquist and has breeding that matches Derby winners over the past two decades. He will need to win the Lexington and likely need several defections to secure a gate but I can sort of see it happening. A better chance for this horse to shake up the Belmont like Tonalist and Commissioner.

[R and O capping]

I am baffled by this decision. I see very little value for the horse. If you were willing to ship to give the horse maximum recovery time from the surgery I would think the Oaklawn prep would make more sense. If you were trying to qualify and gauge KD form, Swipe could finish 4th in OP and still be in the same points position as a win in the Lexington and a 3rd probably gets him qualified outright.

[Stoleitbreezing]

I am baffled by this decision. I see very little value for the horse. If you were willing to ship to give the horse maximum recovery time from the surgery I would think the Oaklawn prep would make more sense. If you were trying to qualify and gauge KD form, Swipe could finish 4th in OP and still be in the same points position as a win in the Lexington and a 3rd probably gets him qualified outright.

Probably has more to do with the Arkansas derby distance being 9F than anything. They rather win an easier race at 8.5F than run 9F first race back against a much more difficult field. But you're right about the points though.

[SecretAgentMan]

I think Swipe will relish at 1 1/2 miles in the Belmont. No way his trainer & owner want his first race back off the layoff in one of the big 5 preps.

Lexington is setting up for the Belmont perfectly. I doubt he will race him in the Preakness, but I could be wrong.