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barn32
04-02-2016, 09:20 PM
Winning a handicapping tournament requires that you bet and win with longshots. If you don't hit any longshots, you've got big problems. But is that the best way to determine a good handicapper?

Isn't there a better way to structure a tournament, that requires a lot of skill, but doesn't necessarily mean you have to hit a bunch of long shots to be the winner?

Or to put it another way. I'm guessing that most if not all of the handicappers who play in these things don't bet their real money the same way that they bet in a tournament.

Robes
04-02-2016, 09:34 PM
The rules of these tournaments,make them nothing more than stabbing contests,that's why I don't play in them,when I feel like stabbing I go to my local 7/11 and buy some scratch tickets,and play the daily p3😂😂😂😂

ArlJim78
04-02-2016, 09:47 PM
Longshots are capped at 20 to 1 in the contests I've been playing in.
You're not going to fare well or win consistently by simply stabbing at longshots. Most people shoot for a blend of medium and longer prices.

Stillriledup
04-02-2016, 10:28 PM
Winning a handicapping tournament requires that you bet and win with longshots. If you don't hit any longshots, you've got big problems. But is that the best way to determine a good handicapper?

Isn't there a better way to structure a tournament, that requires a lot of skill, but doesn't necessarily mean you have to hit a bunch of long shots to be the winner?

Or to put it another way. I'm guessing that most if not all of the handicappers who play in these things don't bet their real money the same way that they bet in a tournament.

That's right, they're structuring this tournament so that players are making picks they wouldn't necessarily bet in real life. Some of these tourneys have nothing to do with 'real life' handicapping. If they capped winners at, say, 15 bucks, nobody's going to run away with it on a lucky 20-1. If a 20-1 wins the first race of the day at 9:35 am and a group of people go crazy, you know you're already beaten, helpless feeling and not a fun feeling, you want to enjoy the day and feel like you always got a shot till the end, capping at a lower number than 20/1 creates more of a skill feel to the contest.

TBD
04-03-2016, 03:13 AM
At first appearance contest play may look like a stab for long shots. It depends on what your looking to get out of the contest. Some have a prize for most winners. Going for this prize instead of the top prize is better for me. This being said, don’t most handicappers enjoy the occasional long shot win. I mean don’t you feel you a greater since of accomplishment when your right and the crowd is wrong. I play contests that are lengthy, not just one racing day and are free. I find that these are not just stabbing for long shots. If you try that angle you will quickly be out. Also, I have found that if I make a change to my handicapping process and use a contest to evaluate that change I receive different data back than if I used my usual methods of evaluation because it takes me out of my comfort zone.

barn32
04-03-2016, 10:45 AM
The way I see it whoever picks the right long shots wins the tournament.

Viruss
04-03-2016, 11:10 AM
This is why I like the lockdown tournaments on Derbywars. You make all your picks before the 1st race.

Earl J

Stillriledup
04-03-2016, 11:37 AM
A very popular handicapping tourney is the nfl super book season long contest in the nfl at the Las Vegas Hilton or lvh or west gate or where've they're calling themselves these days. That tournament is not odds based its 'picking winners' based as all 'horses' are 9/10 odds. There's point spreads involved obviously but oddswise everyone is essentially a 4/5 shot and who picks most winners wins. You can't pull out a 20-1 in week 17 to pass 42 people who are ahead of you.

Si2see
04-03-2016, 01:36 PM
It's funny most of you have this opinion on contests and long shots. To take my tournament play to the next level I have actually been working and focusing on picking better logical horses and favorites. Finding Long shots have never been an issue to me, it's building a balanced entry that is the hard part.

Jason

Capper Al
04-03-2016, 02:16 PM
Funny. I earlier started a thread on a similar topic today. One needs to be a good win bet player and be able to pick longshots. And then on top of that they'll need to get lucky to separate themselves from the other good longshot players. I can see that a profitable exotic player may not stand a chance in the typical tournament.

tanner12oz
04-03-2016, 05:14 PM
A very popular handicapping tourney is the nfl super book season long contest in the nfl at the Las Vegas Hilton or lvh or west gate or where've they're calling themselves these days. That tournament is not odds based its 'picking winners' based as all 'horses' are 9/10 odds. There's point spreads involved obviously but oddswise everyone is essentially a 4/5 shot and who picks most winners wins. You can't pull out a 20-1 in week 17 to pass 42 people who are ahead of you.

this is the biggest sports betting contest on the planet. Great contest, its beyond maddening, ultra competitive and requires major intestinal fortitude over the 17 week season. I've played in a smaller contest (200 people or so) that mirrors the lvh contest. Great times

barn32
04-03-2016, 06:32 PM
In a typical big horseracing tournament, if you win with every bullet at 3 to 1, how do you think you would end up doing?

horses4courses
04-03-2016, 06:38 PM
The way I see it whoever picks the right long shots wins the tournament.

They also have a pretty good day at the track.

PICSIX
04-03-2016, 06:39 PM
In a typical big horseracing tournament, if you win with every bullet at 3 to 1, how do you think you would end up doing?

You would win, no doubt about it!

barn32
04-03-2016, 07:07 PM
You would win, no doubt about it!I'm not so sure, but it might be close to 50/50.

RunForTheRoses
04-03-2016, 07:33 PM
I like cash tournaments like the BC Betting Challenge plus a few others (Monmouth Park and Del Mar will have them and I think Hawthorne next week). They are not online tourneys as far as I know.
Horsetourneys is messing around with an exacta box contest.
I don't think the @WP tourneys are necessarily about total luck, there is definitely skill involved and when you enter that type you need to take a when in Rome stance.

barn32
04-03-2016, 07:58 PM
I like cash tournaments like the BC Betting Challenge plus a few others (Monmouth Park and Del Mar will have them and I think Hawthorne next week). They are not online tourneys as far as I know.
Horsetourneys is messing around with an exacta box contest.
I don't think the @WP tourneys are necessarily about total luck, there is definitely skill involved and when you enter that type you need to take a when in Rome stance.I think there is definitely skill involved. A lot of the HTR guys specialize in this type of tournament. However, I firmly believe that playing the horses this way for cash money is a losing proposition. There are going to be horrendous losing streaks.

Which is why my opinion is that these types of tournaments aren't the best judge of handicapping skill. I also believe there is a much better format for a true test of skill lurking somewhere in the shadows.

Stillriledup
04-03-2016, 10:31 PM
I think there is definitely skill involved. A lot of the HTR guys specialize in this type of tournament. However, I firmly believe that playing the horses this way for cash money is a losing proposition. There are going to be horrendous losing streaks.

Which is why my opinion is that these types of tournaments aren't the best judge of handicapping skill. I also believe there is a much better format for a true test of skill lurking somewhere in the shadows.

There's too much luck in a 2/3 day contest as well as the format encourages stabbing. Personally, I don't need to be put in a contest where I can get beat by inferior players due to the length and format. Contests that interest me more are ones where it's one track only, this way I know if I enter a contest like that and lose, I'm not getting beat by some 40 dollar winner that someone else has at a track that I'm not as familiar with.

ArlJim78
04-04-2016, 01:17 AM
These WP contests are skill games centered around handicapping.
Luck is a part of racing so yes it factors in contests just like it does for regular wagering. But you won't go very far in either endeavor based on luck alone.
Before I started playing in contests about six months ago, I also had the mistaken impression that it was mainly about taking stabs. It's not, you can't win that way. In a typical 12 race online contest if you only take stabs you'd need to have two of them come in to have any shot, and even then if you had nothing else you'd still lose more often than not depending on how many people you are playing against of course. The odds that there would be two 20-1 or better winners in those 12 races and that you would also have correctly stabbed on both of them among all the other long shots that were available over the 12 races are not good.
From some of the comments given here I can tell that people are not very familiar with what's involved.

For me there is no doubt that playing in many contests has made me a better handicapper because it has sharpened my sense of value.

NorCalGreg
04-04-2016, 03:43 AM
There's too much luck in a 2/3 day contest as well as the format encourages stabbing. Personally, I don't need to be put in a contest where I can get beat by inferior players due to the length and format. Contests that interest me more are ones where it's one track only, this way I know if I enter a contest like that and lose, I'm not getting beat by some 40 dollar winner that someone else has at a track that I'm not as familiar with.

.....the ONLY way you could enter a contest and lose---with your superb 'capping skills--is if a jockey found out you were in the contest.

barn32
04-05-2016, 05:41 AM
This is just an idea.

A method that rewards consistency and/or big bombs.

Assume a contest where you must bet every race. In this example there is a
ten race contest.

Award 1 point for every winner, and 1 point for every odd, and subtract 1 point
for every loser (or every passed race) with the odds capped at 20-1.

So if you hit a 20-1 shot and lost every other race
you would get 20 points for the odds and 1 point for
the win for 21 points. Subtract 9 points for nine losing
races and you have 12 points.

If you hit a 4, 6 and a 7 to one shot you would get 13 points.

If you hit 5, 4 to 1 shots you would get 20 points. (Consistency is
rewarded here.)

If you hit 4, 3-1 shots you would get 8 points.

If you hit 10 even money shots you would get 20 points.

5, 2-1 shots would be 10 points.

Hitting a lot of winners would keep you in the game, especially in a multi-day
contest.

The person hitting the 20-1 bombs would do well, but the person who is
consistent at medium odds would also do well.

The way the tournaments are set up now you have to save your bullets for
your most likely bombs. Wasting bullets on 4, 5 and 6 to one shots will
deplete your ammunition and put you out of the game quickly unless you
hit almost every one.

This is just an idea for a starting point.

v j stauffer
04-05-2016, 11:25 AM
These WP contests are skill games centered around handicapping.
Luck is a part of racing so yes it factors in contests just like it does for regular wagering. But you won't go very far in either endeavor based on luck alone.
Before I started playing in contests about six months ago, I also had the mistaken impression that it was mainly about taking stabs. It's not, you can't win that way. In a typical 12 race online contest if you only take stabs you'd need to have two of them come in to have any shot, and even then if you had nothing else you'd still lose more often than not depending on how many people you are playing against of course. The odds that there would be two 20-1 or better winners in those 12 races and that you would also have correctly stabbed on both of them among all the other long shots that were available over the 12 races are not good.
From some of the comments given here I can tell that people are not very familiar with what's involved.

For me there is no doubt that playing in many contests has made me a better handicapper because it has sharpened my sense of value.

The winning total of most contests averages out at right around $8.00 per race.

v j stauffer
04-05-2016, 11:28 AM
Speaking of tournaments. I thought there was supposed to be a 2nd PA members tourney on DerbyWars.

What happened? Why haven't we seen that?

PaceAdvantage
04-05-2016, 11:32 AM
Speaking of tournaments. I thought there was supposed to be a 2nd PA members tourney on DerbyWars.

What happened? Why haven't we seen that?Probably the same reason why trainers tend to scratch out of races where the competition scares them away...you're in the field... :lol:

v j stauffer
04-05-2016, 11:37 AM
Probably the same reason why trainers tend to scratch out of races where the competition scares them away...you're in the field... :lol:

You can write the conditions as "Non winners of $200 in a PA/DerbyWars tournament"

arw629
04-05-2016, 01:29 PM
If you think that horse tournaments are all luck and the only people that win are Longshot players who get lucky you're completely wrong....there is a reason you see the same names at the top of the tournament lists on a daily basis....so instead of crying about Longshots maybe humble yourself and realize there are better handicappers out there than yourself

v j stauffer
04-05-2016, 02:34 PM
If you think that horse tournaments are all luck and the only people that win are Longshot players who get lucky you're completely wrong....there is a reason you see the same names at the top of the tournament lists on a daily basis....so instead of crying about Longshots maybe humble yourself and realize there are better handicappers out there than yourself

Sharp Post :ThmbUp:

Stillriledup
04-05-2016, 03:27 PM
If you think that horse tournaments are all luck and the only people that win are Longshot players who get lucky you're completely wrong....there is a reason you see the same names at the top of the tournament lists on a daily basis....so instead of crying about Longshots maybe humble yourself and realize there are better handicappers out there than yourself

Nobody said they're all luck. The math suggests with a little tweaking here or there they can become more skill based. There's not hundreds of thousands of horse tourney players, if there were you wouldn't see the same names at the top

Capper Al
04-05-2016, 03:35 PM
If you think that horse tournaments are all luck and the only people that win are Longshot players who get lucky you're completely wrong....there is a reason you see the same names at the top of the tournament lists on a daily basis....so instead of crying about Longshots maybe humble yourself and realize there are better handicappers out there than yourself

It's a different kind of luck. It's luck among the elite handicappers.

Stillriledup
04-05-2016, 03:49 PM
It's a different kind of luck. It's luck among the elite handicappers.

It's not as much luck as its short sample variance. The longer the tourney the more likely the better players land near the top.

barn32
04-05-2016, 04:11 PM
If you think that horse tournaments are all luck and the only people that win are Longshot players who get lucky you're completely wrong....there is a reason you see the same names at the top of the tournament lists on a daily basis....so instead of crying about Longshots maybe humble yourself and realize there are better handicappers out there than yourselfYou're argument is specious at best. These types of tournaments have existed for a long time and will continue to exist. My point in starting this thread was to see if there might be a consensus for a more skillful format. And who here is crying about hitting lucky longshots? Chip on your shoulder much?

No you do not see the same names at the top of the tournament list on a daily basis. The same argument you post above has been used for years in the poker world. Yes, for a while you see a lot of the same names at the top and then something funny happens. Those very same names disappear for a long time. And then some of them disappear altogether.

When the same people enter all of the tournaments, pay for expenses, entry fees, etc., then I seriously doubt many (if any) are long-term winners.

And don't forget many of them enter multiple times.

I can name two dozen people who were doing extremely well playing poker tournaments that have completely disappeared from the scene.

v j stauffer
04-05-2016, 04:56 PM
You're argument is specious at best. These types of tournaments have existed for a long time and will continue to exist. My point in starting this thread was to see if there might be a consensus for a more skillful format. And who here is crying about hitting lucky longshots? Chip on your shoulder much?

No you do not see the same names at the top of the tournament list on a daily basis. The same argument you post above has been used for years in the poker world. Yes, for a while you see a lot of the same names at the top and then something funny happens. Those very same names disappear for a long time. And then some of them disappear altogether.

When the same people enter all of the tournaments, pay for expenses, entry fees, etc., then I seriously doubt many (if any) are long-term winners.

And don't forget many of them enter multiple times.

I can name two dozen people who were doing extremely well playing poker tournaments that have completely disappeared from the scene.

You DO IN FACT see the same names at the top of the tournament list on a daily basis.

Capper Al
04-05-2016, 06:22 PM
It's not as much luck as its short sample variance. The longer the tourney the more likely the better players land near the top.

I'm agreeing with you. The elite capper guesses better at longshots. He doesn't just jump on a horse that's going off at 35/1 for the odds. He understands that the longshot is possible.

barn32
04-05-2016, 06:37 PM
You DO IN FACT see the same names at the top of the tournament list on a daily basis.OK. The current format structure is the best one that's ever been devised, and there's no need whatsoever to try and come up with something better.

The same people are on the top of the list every day and win all of the tournaments and the day money.

So, since this issue has been resolved there is no further need for discussion.

Mike, please lock this thread.

arw629
04-05-2016, 11:33 PM
You're argument is specious at best. These types of tournaments have existed for a long time and will continue to exist. My point in starting this thread was to see if there might be a consensus for a more skillful format. And who here is crying about hitting lucky longshots? Chip on your shoulder much?

No you do not see the same names at the top of the tournament list on a daily basis. The same argument you post above has been used for years in the poker world. Yes, for a while you see a lot of the same names at the top and then something funny happens. Those very same names disappear for a long time. And then some of them disappear altogether.

When the same people enter all of the tournaments, pay for expenses, entry fees, etc., then I seriously doubt many (if any) are long-term winners.

And don't forget many of them enter multiple times.

I can name two dozen people who were doing extremely well playing poker tournaments that have completely disappeared from the scene.

Definitely not a chip on my shoulder...I signed up on horse tourneys a little over a year ago and had success....I decided this year to keep records....I usually play in the 8, 17, and 55 dollar pick and pray format and try to mix up my plays between short, medium, and long price horses....I've done 117 tournaments this year spending $2721 and have received $4480 in return ....I don't know how sustainable that is, but I have a hard time accepting that good pari-mutuel handicappers can't win tournaments....I attached my records

arw629
04-05-2016, 11:56 PM
Not that anyone cares but the April 4th entrees are actually April 5th

v j stauffer
04-06-2016, 12:53 AM
Definitely not a chip on my shoulder...I signed up on horse tourneys a little over a year ago and had success....I decided this year to keep records....I usually play in the 8, 17, and 55 dollar pick and pray format and try to mix up my plays between short, medium, and long price horses....I've done 117 tournaments this year spending $2721 and have received $4480 in return ....I don't know how sustainable that is, but I have a hard time accepting that good pari-mutuel handicappers can't win tournaments....I attached my records

More importantly where do you get off having the temerity to post after Barn decided for all of us that no further posts were needed?

NorCalGreg
04-06-2016, 01:31 AM
Definitely not a chip on my shoulder...I signed up on horse tourneys a little over a year ago and had success....I decided this year to keep records....I usually play in the 8, 17, and 55 dollar pick and pray format and try to mix up my plays between short, medium, and long price horses....I've done 117 tournaments this year spending $2721 and have received $4480 in return ....I don't know how sustainable that is, but I have a hard time accepting that good pari-mutuel handicappers can't win tournaments....I attached my records

See you won an exacta-box tourney--nice :ThmbUp:

arw629
04-06-2016, 08:08 AM
More importantly where do you get off having the temerity to post after Barn decided for all of us that no further posts were needed?

I haven't been gelded yet

biggestal99
04-06-2016, 08:29 AM
I like cash tournaments like the BC Betting Challenge plus a few others (Monmouth Park and Del Mar will have them and I think Hawthorne next week)..

I also favor live bankroll tournaments.

Lets see if you have the same chutzpah on a 20-1 shot with real money on the line.

Allan

v j stauffer
04-06-2016, 10:03 AM
I also favor live bankroll tournaments.

Lets see if you have the same chutzpah on a 20-1 shot with real money on the line.

Allan

Real Money? I get what you're saying. However the top players do have the chutzpah going.

When they get a check sent from DerbyWars the bank does give them real money when they cash it.

One way you do see the same players win all the time is head to head matchups.

Those can be for pretty big $$. I mostly play the $430 games. They have bigger as well.

What I like about those is if you're patient you can pick and choose your opponents. There are people I tend to avoid because they're just better than me or at least a very tough customer.

Often you'll see a brand new name. They tend to be ripe for the picking. Like the guy that comes to the Hold Em table and "throws a party".

Couple of days ago I registered and made plans to play the Ky. Derby betting challenge. We play on track at Churchill on both Oaks and Derby day.

Total buy in $20,000.

Seems pretty real to me ;)

Capper Al
04-06-2016, 10:20 AM
Real Money? I get what you're saying. However the top players do have the chutzpah going.

When they get a check sent from DerbyWars the bank does give them real money when they cash it.

One way you do see the same players win all the time is head to head matchups.

Those can be for pretty big $$. I mostly play the $430 games. They have bigger as well.

What I like about those is if you're patient you can pick and choose your opponents. There are people I tend to avoid because they're just better than me or at least a very tough customer.

Often you'll see a brand new name. They tend to be ripe for the picking. Like the guy that comes to the Hold Em table and "throws a party".

Couple of days ago I registered and made plans to play the Ky. Derby betting challenge. We play on track at Churchill on both Oaks and Derby day.

Total buy in $20,000.

Seems pretty real to me ;)

You live in a different universe than me (a mini-roller). Good luck!

stringmail
04-06-2016, 11:17 AM
Couple of days ago I registered and made plans to play the Ky. Derby betting challenge. We play on track at Churchill on both Oaks and Derby day.

Total buy in $20,000.

Seems pretty real to me ;)

The "rake" on this event seems absurd. I'm surprised to see anyone buy in as opposed to trying to win your way in through a satellite. Purse prize payout of $250K ($200K cash and $50K in entries) when they will collect $300K seems a bit greedy on their part but they are entitled to make money.

I would rather play an event with 100% payback.

I'm interested in your reason for signing up directly. I get the allure of low turnout tourney, big prize, great venue but still...

Stillriledup
04-06-2016, 11:30 AM
The "rake" on this event seems absurd. I'm surprised to see anyone buy in as opposed to trying to win your way in through a satellite. Purse prize payout of $250K ($200K cash and $50K in entries) when they will collect $300K seems a bit greedy on their part but they are entitled to make money.

I would rather play an event with 100% payback.

I'm interested in your reason for signing up directly. I get the allure of low turnout tourney, big prize, great venue but still...

There are plenty of tournaments w 100 pct (or close) giveback, I would avoid the 'rake' ones myself.

biggestal99
04-06-2016, 12:00 PM
. I mostly play the $430 games.



thanks for the discussion Vic.

would you play differently if you actually had to bet that 430 on horses in a real money contest as opposed to competing against other players in a fantasy contest.

lets say you managed to turn your 430 into 2000 in 4th place before the last race of the contest. Leader has 5000.

Its the last race, how much of your 2K would you put up to win the whole thing.

Its a little different strategy wise than your fantasy bets where you bankroll won't decrease.

thanks

Allan

stringmail
04-06-2016, 01:10 PM
thanks for the discussion Vic.

would you play differently if you actually had to bet that 430 on horses in a real money contest as opposed to competing against other players in a fantasy contest.

lets say you managed to turn your 430 into 2000 in 4th place before the last race of the contest. Leader has 5000.

Its the last race, how much of your 2K would you put up to win the whole thing.

Its a little different strategy wise than your fantasy bets where you bankroll won't decrease.

thanks

Allan

I know this was directed towards Vic but the key variable that is not known in your scenario is the purse prize but it is also dependent on your goal when you entered. Was it to win?

If the purse prize is $10K for first and you betting a 2-1 shot to get you to 6000 (from your current 2K standing) will get you the win, you've created a 7-1 overlay ($6K+$10K) so logically it makes sense to bet rather than sitting tight.

The $430 is a sunk cost. You lose the bet, you didn't lose 2000, you lost $430 which is what you were willing to lose originally.

v j stauffer
04-06-2016, 01:48 PM
The "rake" on this event seems absurd. I'm surprised to see anyone buy in as opposed to trying to win your way in through a satellite. Purse prize payout of $250K ($200K cash and $50K in entries) when they will collect $300K seems a bit greedy on their part but they are entitled to make money.

I would rather play an event with 100% payback.

I'm interested in your reason for signing up directly. I get the allure of low turnout tourney, big prize, great venue but still...

I intend to try to qualify every opportunity that comes up. I played a qualifier on Horse Tourneys last Sunday. Finished 6th but we played for only one spot.

Been confused about whether or not CD is putting all fees back into the tourney. I read somewhere they were. But I also remember reading they would take $800. I didn't think that was exorbitant since we have a spot in a very nice room with buffet and drinks on both Oaks and Derby day.

I've played two live bankroll tourneys in the past year. One at Del Mar and one at Keeneland. They both returned 100%.

Any other place or any other days at Churchill I wouldn't play unless 100% was paid. I thought in this one instance since it's the Derby I was ok with the rake.

v j stauffer
04-06-2016, 01:52 PM
thanks for the discussion Vic.

would you play differently if you actually had to bet that 430 on horses in a real money contest as opposed to competing against other players in a fantasy contest.

lets say you managed to turn your 430 into 2000 in 4th place before the last race of the contest. Leader has 5000.

Its the last race, how much of your 2K would you put up to win the whole thing.

Its a little different strategy wise than your fantasy bets where you bankroll won't decrease.

thanks

Allan

I've learned that when playing for live money you have to treat your dollars like chips.

Willing to do whatever it takes to finish in prize fund positions.

I've seen guys try to juggle not going all in and it doesn't seem to work.

When I'm playing I look at the bets as tournament strategy not as a bankroll.

Si2see
04-06-2016, 02:06 PM
If you think that horse tournaments are all luck and the only people that win are Longshot players who get lucky you're completely wrong....there is a reason you see the same names at the top of the tournament lists on a daily basis....so instead of crying about Longshots maybe humble yourself and realize there are better handicappers out there than yourself

Post of the year nomination :ThmbUp:

Si2see
04-06-2016, 02:47 PM
I also favor live bankroll tournaments.

Lets see if you have the same chutzpah on a 20-1 shot with real money on the line.

Allan

Allan,

I have always respected your posts. I can tell you that I have been working on different strategies for each style of contest play. Although I have played several dozen more online win/place mythical tournaments, I am most excited about the win/place/show live money tournaments.

At the Laurel Champions tournament a few weeks ago I bought two entries when I arrived, I had 75% of my plays mapped out for the day and the other 25% would be based on strategy and where I needed to be. I had a very successful day and at one time had both entries in the top 15 and ready to pounce. I decided to get one entry into the top 10 to cash ( which I held on to 10th place ), and one entry I took a swing for the fences ( and struck out )

I can tell you that I played the same horses I would've played in a mythical contest, which were also the same horses I would've played with my own cash on any given Saturday afternoon.

Jason

Stillriledup
04-06-2016, 03:58 PM
Post of the year nomination :ThmbUp:
If that's POY material were in trouble.

And no there aren't better horseplayers than me, I'm the best who's ever done this.

Just ask me. :D

cato
04-06-2016, 04:05 PM
Over the years the cash tournaments have morphed farther and farther away from anything resembling traditional handicapping and betting. A lot of people have used the following strategy to win a lot o' cash -

Preserve capital and then go all-in toward the end (a couple of times).

So if you have to bet 10 races a day at $200 a race, a lot of guys will bet a fave to place (or show if that's available), or take a low odds horse to win and then on day 2 start looking for some "all-in" races.

You have to be willing to lose it all in the last couple of races and in the bigger tournaments (especially if you bought in) that's a tough road to take (at least for me).

So I love the mythical wager tournaments. The bigger cash tournaments are great - but only if I qualified and I'm playing with their money.

arw629
04-06-2016, 05:11 PM
Allan,

I have always respected your posts. I can tell you that I have been working on different strategies for each style of contest play. Although I have played several dozen more online win/place mythical tournaments, I am most excited about the win/place/show live money tournaments.

At the Laurel Champions tournament a few weeks ago I bought two entries when I arrived, I had 75% of my plays mapped out for the day and the other 25% would be based on strategy and where I needed to be. I had a very successful day and at one time had both entries in the top 15 and ready to pounce. I decided to get one entry into the top 10 to cash ( which I held on to 10th place ), and one entry I took a swing for the fences ( and struck out )

I can tell you that I played the same horses I would've played in a mythical contest, which were also the same horses I would've played with my own cash on any given Saturday afternoon.

Jason

Agree completely. ..the same horses I bet in real life are the same ones I back in tournaments

v j stauffer
04-06-2016, 09:31 PM
If that's POY material were in trouble.

And no there aren't better horseplayers than me, I'm the best who's ever done this.

Just ask me. :D

You can prove that to at least me.

Heads up matches at DERBYWARS.

Any track, any amount, any day.

Just ask me. :D

Si2see
04-06-2016, 10:09 PM
If that's POY material were in trouble.

It is the most honest post I have seen in a long time. ThIs game is filled with people who think or like to try to make people believe that they are an elite handicapper, yet so many of us loose day in and day out, year after year after year. I completely agree with arw629 there are some players that regardless of format seem like the elite players, which I believe also make up the 5% of actual winners theory.

Jason

ArlJim78
04-06-2016, 11:19 PM
The winning total of most contests averages out at right around $8.00 per race.
$8 to $10 per race is supposedly the typical range based on what I've read.
Number of entrants and races has a big influence too.
Example I won a small feeder today against 8-9 people with $53.8 for 8 races.
That total wouldn't get me a cup of coffee against a field of 25 or more people.

Stillriledup
04-07-2016, 12:52 AM
You can prove that to at least me.

Heads up matches at DERBYWARS.

Any track, any amount, any day.

Just ask me. :D

I don't play derby wars, as far as any amount or any track goes, I'm assuming you mean thoroughbred racing, right?

PaceAdvantage
04-07-2016, 04:28 PM
I'm assuming you mean thoroughbred racing, right?Why would you assume that?

Oh, I see...you're trying once again to appear clever...

Stillriledup
04-07-2016, 05:42 PM
Why would you assume that?

Oh, I see...you're trying once again to appear clever...

Because I haven't ever seen Vic talk about harness racing or greyhounds? I don't have to try and APPEAR to be clever, my posting brilliance speaks for itself. ;)

PIC6SIX
04-07-2016, 08:40 PM
You gentlemen forgot to mention the factor of tournament players using multiple entries. If one is such a good handicapper why do they need multiple entries in a contest?????? I have to laugh when I see someone with two, three or four entries not in the top fifty in a contest with two hundred entrants. I see bits of truths in each of the replies to this Tournament post. Considering all the grips about contests you have to still agree they are MUCH FUN.