Florida Derby maybe not a match race after all...

[Mc990]

Looking at the post draw, Mohaymen will have his work cut out for him. Not many winners coming from post 9 in 2-turn races @ GP.

Considering Nyquist will more than likely save AT LEAST a few lengths of ground on his closest competitor, I say he's a pretty sure thing is this spot.

From my perspective, the ideal scenario has Nyquist winning and going off the derby favorite. TOSS. Mo pairing his top from last race but running 2nd or 3rd. All the sudden we have a competitive, well rested horse who might actually turn into an overlay in KY.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Unless Mohaymen gets a horrible break the post shouldn't matter because he has tactical speed. The race is going to be something! I think both still have a lot to prove. Mohaymen while not being asked much hasn't posted the "BIG Fig" but Nyquist did it at 7f and with all of them maturing physically since the BC Juvenile I don't put much stock into his 2yo form at this stage. Both have statements to be made about who they really are IMO. Neither is a finished product which is why I haven't made any lofty conclusions about them! Can't wait for it.

[Stoleitbreezing]

I think I read and heard somewhere that the outside post(s) at gulfstream for the 9F races have historically won at a very small percentage. The notable exception to this was Barbaro who won from the :10: post to win the FL Derby. Having said that I agree with the previous poster we've not seen the best from Mohaymen and despite the outside gate he has enough speed like Barbaro did to get a decent position as they come around the first turn. Does Mohaymen have to win? No. Can he win? Sure, he's one of the most talented horses this derby trail and we've not seen his "bottom" yet.

Outside of Nyquist who I believe has some distance limitations the others in this field will be hard pressed to complete any of the gimmicks. Fellowship has finished a well beaten 3rd twice now and will probably need one of the favorites to quit badly to get a bigger piece, but even with that has no real chance to win IMO.

Should be a great race. I have Mohaymen in Future pool #1 at 11-1 so his defeat or win, doesn't necessarily hurt me going forward. I just hope all come out the race sound.

[davew]

Unless Mohaymen gets a horrible break the post shouldn't matter because he has tactical speed. The race is going to be something! I think both still have a lot to prove. Mohaymen while not being asked much hasn't posted the "BIG Fig" but Nyquist did it at 7f and with all of them maturing physically since the BC Juvenile I don't put much stock into his 2yo form at this stage. Both have statements to be made about who they really are IMO. Neither is a finished product which is why I haven't made any lofty conclusions about them! Can't wait for it.


It is a good thing about his tactical speed. He will be able to use it rather than being 3 wide around the entire first turn. If he wins after being 3 wide entire first turn, then will likely become a deserved favorite in Derby.

[f2tornado]

Upstart had a tough time from that hole last year. I don't think it matters here though. Mohaymen should have no trouble clearing most of this crew or can move up tactically. Would be shocked if the horse doesn't make up the exacta and fully expect a win. The fun part is handicapping the tri and super as that is the only way to get paid without going horizontal.

[Tom]

I don't know what TFUS gave Nyquist in his 7 furlong race, but I see Mohaymen as the division leader. I thing the Beyers this year are way off base, to the point that they aren't usable. I am using the chart CJ posts here and I think that is much closer to reality.

Chasing the bonus with Nyquist instead of focusing on the Derby will cost him, IMHO. This late n the year and a lack of foundation will have him looking for a bench before the stretch run at CD. But I could be wrong.

[SecretAgentMan]

Nothing but a Nyquist vs Mohaymen down the stretch & crossing the wire. The winner is tough to pick, although I think Mohaymen wins, wouldn't be surprised to see Nyquist win by a neck.

If Mohaymen wins going away by over 2 lengths, Nyquist is done.

[Secondbest]

With 10 entered and the big 2 at even and 6/5 next lowest is 15-1.Nobody is giving anyone else a shot. So, 2 to win on all the others for 16 or 1 exacta all others over the big 2 for the same 16.

[upthecreek]

Any network covering it or just TVG?

[Delta Cone]

I think I read and heard somewhere that the outside post(s) at gulfstream for the 9F races have historically won at a very small percentage. The notable exception to this was Barbaro who won from the :10: post to win the FL Derby.

Big Brown won from the 12 post.

[Stoleitbreezing]

Big Brown won from the 12 post.

Thanks for pointing that out, I forgot about him. If mohaymen is able to win from a similar post that says a lot about how difficult it is to win from out there.

[SecretAgentMan]

If Mohaymen has talent remotely close to Big Brown or Barbaro, his post shouldn't be an issue at all.

[f2tornado]

There is an inside track bias this year but some of the outside posts have higher winning percentage than middle posts.
2016 Gulfstream Post Position Stats (http://www.gulfstreampark.com/docs/default-source/post-position-statistics/pps0327.pdf?sfvrsn=2)

[Mc990]

Majority of those stats are for 1 mile- 1 turn... GP doesn't run a ton of 2 turn dirt races

[Kash$]

Pletcher absent in the Fla Derby..


Im taking a shot with Fellowship.

[Ocala Mike]

Im taking a shot with Fellowship.




I've got to - I live in Fellowship!

Small win, exactas up and down with the top two, and big punch with him completing the trifecta.

[Kash$]

Mohaymen dusted...

Nyquist punched him right in the face..

[Speed Figure]

Quick 1.6 mil! thanks east coast..:lol:

[CincyHorseplayer]

Quick 1.6 mil! thanks east coast..:lol:

Talk about hittin a lick. That was an awesome display!

[pandy]

That certainly looked good, pressure throughout then he shakes off Mohaymen easily and draws off...and he looked strong on the gallop out.

As I was watching the race, I was thinking, how would I feel if I owned either one of these horses? If you owned Nyquist, you have to be thinking you're going to win the Kentucky Derby. If you owned Mohaymen, what a let down. Here you think you have a monster and he gets dusted.

[Robert Fischer]

Looking at the post draw, Mohaymen will have his work cut out for him. Not many winners coming from post 9 in 2-turn races @ GP.

Considering Nyquist will more than likely save AT LEAST a few lengths of ground on his closest competitor, I say he's a pretty sure thing is this spot.

From my perspective, the ideal scenario has Nyquist winning and going off the derby favorite. TOSS. Mo pairing his top from last race but running 2nd or 3rd. All the sudden we have a competitive, well rested horse who might actually turn into an overlay in KY.

Good call.